RIAB Annual Meeting 15 th March 2016 IEA Headquarters, 9, Rue de la Fédération, Paris (Room 1)
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1 RIAB Annual Meeting 15 th March 2016 IEA Headquarters, 9, Rue de la Fédération, Paris (Room 1) Low fossil fuel prices bad news for renewables? Introduction The 2016 meeting between the IEA and the Renewable Energy Advisory Board was attended by 16 Board members, representing many of the major companies and associations engaged in renewable energy developments worldwide. The aim of the meeting was to discuss the low fossil fuel prices and the likely impact on the prospects for renewables deployment in the short and longer term, and to identify some policy recommendations which could help to maintain the momentum of deployment even in an extended period of low fossil fuel prices. Welcoming the Board members, the IEA Executive Director, Dr. Fatih Birol, thanked them for their collaboration and for their important inputs into IEA thinking and analysis, particularly to the IEA s Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report. He then went on to highlight some of the important elements of the new approach designed to modernize the IEA s strategy. Opening the doors to the emerging economies that play such an important role in the global energy scene. He encouraged RIAB to include industry players from these important markets as well as from within the OECD. Making the IEA a global hub for clean energy technologies including energy efficiency and renewables. The IEA s World Energy Outlook 2016 will have a special emphasis on renewable energy, and there will be a WEO special report on energy and air quality to be published in June. Two-thirds of new renewable capacity in the next 5 years will be in emerging economies. The IEA would continue to stress the importance of renewables and give particular emphasis to work on the integration of renewables electricity into grids. 1
2 In order to facilitate the doubling of the current level of investment in renewables necessary to meet the COP 21 ambitions there will be a need to minimise policy uncertainties and for countries to maintain and increases their renewable energy ambitions. The successful outcome of COP21 points in the right direction, but is only the beginning. Now the ambitions have to be delivered. There have been some worrying signs since the Paris meeting, with European carbon prices falling. As reflected in the discussions at the Davos World Economic Forum, governments and industry now more exercised by the impacts of the current low fossil fuel prices and other macro-economic issues than by what is needed to deliver the COP 21 agreement. Low fossil fuel prices and a lack of government attention may affect efforts on energy efficiency and on renewables. IEA analysis suggests that such low prices may be here for an extended period, particularly for gas and coal, so renewable industry members need to take account of this. He looked forward to RIAB s views on the likely impact of low prices on their markets and on the most significant policy measures which could help maintain the momentum in renewables investment and deployment. Future Fossil Price Trends IEA Perspective The IEA s Chief Economist, Laszlo Varro, summarised the IEA s views on future energy prices trends. Gas and oil prices had started to drop before oil prices fell sharply in 2014/15. Economic shifts and the implementation of climate change policies having an impact on energy markets, and this, coupled with supply side overcapacity, is driving historically low prices for gas, oil and coal. Global electricity demand is growing much more slowly and the bulk of increased demand (85% in 2015) is being met by new renewables generation. In China structural changes are leading to reduced energy intensity, and this coupled with increased levels of renewable and nuclear generation is significantly reducing electricity production from coal. The growth of renewable generation coupled with the impact of improved energy efficiency is reducing demand for electricity more generally, and depressing actual and anticipated wholesale electricity prices. 2
3 Global coal prices are depressed due to waning demand. While this is constraining investment in new coal supply capacity, existing capacity is more than enough to supply future demand, and, given the long lifetime of these assets, to keep future coal prices low. Oil demand is growing slowly. Production of light-tight oil in the US has been declining in the light of reduced prices. This decline is expected to continue through 2016/2017 but then to recover by Despite wars and political uncertainties in the Middle East oil production in the region has remained very stable. In terms of other low carbon options, nuclear generation is making slow progress (outside China) with projected costs high and many problems in bringing projects to fruition. For every single CCS project that has succeeded in real life hydrocarbon revenues have played an important role, and the scope for such projects will be reduced if oil prices remain low. The challenge of meeting decarbonisation targets will therefore need to be achieved principally through accelerated deployment of renewables and energy efficiency. Discussion Impacts on business In discussion, held under Chatham House Rules, the industry view was that, while they are conscious of the potential impacts of low fossil fuels prices on their business, they are nevertheless confident that deployment will continue to grow strongly in many markets at least in the electricity sector. The heat and transport sectors, more exposed to direct competition with oil, and less sheltered by policy measures will probably be more seriously affected. They made the following key points: In many established and emerging markets, the short-term future for renewables deployment is sheltered by policy commitments driven by climate change, energy security or diversity considerations Renewable technology costs (notably for wind and solar PV) are declining and there is continued scope for further cost reduction as new technology developments come to fruition, high resource areas become available for deployment and the confidence of investors reduces financing rates. Stable and predictable policy frameworks and long-term contracts, which ensure predictable cash-flows, are essential to these continuing cost reductions. These trends are making renewables increasingly affordable even at low fossil fuel prices. The Board also noted the potential in the short term for increasingly 3
4 competitive dispatchable renewable power for example involving concentrated solar power with storage, or based on lower cost electricity storage systems - given continued support for R&D and for early deployment. In many regions new electricity capacity is determined as much by policy and regulatory considerations as by price. It is unlikely that there will be major investment in coal generation in much of Europe or in the US even at extremely low prices. In other markets like China, air pollution issues are militating against increased coal use for power generation (and for non-power applications). However in some Asian markets low price coal is likely to stimulate additional coal generation until and unless air quality concerns are taken into account. Developers do take a long-term view with investments that have lifetimes of 25+ years (or even 40+ for coal). Risk assessment over the project lifetime is a critical part of investment decisions and takes into account not only the risks of future fossil fuel price variability but also risks associated with climate change policies which can affect, for example, the capacity factors which can be achieved. From an investment perspective there are signs of continued high levels of investment in renewables for power, for gas infrastructure and in low cost oil opportunities, but coal investment was likely to remain constrained, with investors conscious of long term climate policy trends and risks associated with high carbon investments. Indeed it was now increasingly difficult to find investors prepared to fund coal based projects. Policy measures The Board members took the view that in order to maintain the momentum for renewables investment it was necessary for policy makers to take a long term holistic approach to meeting strategic societal objectives consistent with meeting and going beyond the COP 21 agreement. Some elements which should be included in such an approach include: Regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuel generation (especially coal) such as emission limits and air quality standards, coupled to measures aimed at retiring older, more polluting and less flexible generation capacity. Reduction and eventual abolition of fossil fuel subsidies for both extraction and generation, noting that a period of low fossil fuels prices provides an opportunity to make this change without impacting on consumers. 4
5 Consideration of appropriate market designs appropriate for a capital-intensive, lowcarbon generation mix which provide long-term stable purchase agreements for renewable power. Consideration of how to better distribute the costs of decarbonising the whole energy system, including electrification of heat and transport. For example the costs should not just fall on electricity; otherwise options such as efficient heat pumps cannot compete with thermal boilers. Coordination of grid planning to facilitate higher levels of renewable generation, coupled to adequate planning and investment in the measures to improve flexibility which is necessary to achieve high levels of variable renewables generation. This will include better integration of electricity, heating and cooling and transport sectors. Some industrial representatives were eager to progress to a situation where markets did not rely on policies. As part of this progression, they called for a discussion on the notion of subsidies and in particular on the use of wholesale prices as the benchmark when these may optimize short term economics but do not deliver the necessary investment in low carbon technologies, reflecting long term societal needs. 5
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