Cognitive Injection: Herding Lizards for Fun, Profit, and Safety. Andy Ellis Chief Security

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1 Cognitive Injection: Herding Lizards for Fun, Profit, and Safety Andy Ellis Chief Security Officer

2 Stupid Why Do People Make Bad Decisions? Incomprehensible Business Owner Security Modal bias!

3 A typical business risk conversation Business Owner Here is my project. Is it safe? That s really long. Can you fill it out for me? Security Here s our ISO checklist of every mistake anyone s ever made. Prove you haven t. Sure. You have a bunch of esoteric risk here. Really? Is that a showstopper? If I say yes, you re going to override me, aren t you? And if I say no, I m in trouble if this goes wrong...

4 Security Poverty Line Organizations that don t have enough resources to implement perceived basic security needs. Security Subsistence Syndrome I can t even do the barest minimum to cover my ass, so I d better not do anything but cover Accruing Technical Debt With every step forward, the undone work increases risk and makes future steps harder. my ass. This is a dangerous way to operate!

5 Historical paranoia Monkey on rope ladder CC-BY-SA 2010 Rachel Coleman Finch

6 The economics of the Prisoner s Dilemma 13% of the *me! Cooperate Cheat Cooperate Cheat % of the *me!

7 Adding value: measuring a security program

8 Security value balances perceived risk Tolerance of perceived risk drives to a stable equilibrium P E R C E I V E D R I S K S E C U R I T Y V A L U E

9 How much security is good enough? Perfect security What you need to fend off a persistent adversary S E C U R I T Y V A L U E Where a good assessor can help you Good security Sufficient against the casual adversary Enough to convince a serious auditor Enough to fool the standard auditor What your organization thinks it can get away with

10 How much security is good enough? Perfect security What you need to fend off a persistent adversary S E C U R I T Y V A L U E Where a good assessor can help you Good security Sufficient against the casual adversary Enough to convince a serious auditor Enough to fool the standard auditor What your organization thinks it can get away with

11 Peltzman Effect What your organization thinks it can get away with Organizations don t think: People do.

12 Thinking, Fast and Slow Or do they?

13 System 1: The Fast Lizard-Brain

14 System 1: The bigot

15 System 1 vs System 2 LEFT LEFT LEFT LEFT RIGHT RIGHT RIGHT RIGHT

16 System 1 vs System 2 LEFT LEFT RIGHT RIGHT LEFT RIGHT LEFT RIGHT

17 System 1 in action Annual Security Awareness Training is required by all employees to ensure your compliance with the security policies of the company while conduchng your daily tasks in furtherance of our goals to protect company data, systems, and informahon against malfeasance, adversarial achon, and other systemic failures that might be introduced by an inalenhon to appropriate risk management achvihes or non- compliance with industry standard best prachces as laid out in various control frameworks such as ISO 27002, PCI, HIPAA, SOX, SSAE- 16, NIST , FedRAMP

18 It s not a ROSI scenario $5B Loss: $5M Probability: 10%/yr.01% N/day! $50K $14K maintenance ALE: $500,000 10% reduchon in events Cost:$26K/yr Savings:$50K/yr

19 people What do organizations consider risk? lizards Business Owner Is my P/L good? Will I gain market share? CEO Is this profitable? Sales Can I meet my quota with this? CFO Is this a good allocation of resources? Employees Will I have a job? Security Is this safe?

20 Set-point theory of risk tolerance P E R C E I V E D R I S K S E C U R I T Y V A L U E Perceived risk tolerance seeks a stable equilibrium!

21 Unmitigated Risk Psychosis A C T U A L R I S K* P E R C E I V E D R I S K S E C U R I T Y V A L U E *not actually actual risk Attempts to leave residual risk may result in new risk budgets!

22 Training Lizards A C T U A L R I S K P E R C E I V E D R I S K S E C U R I T Y V A L U E Risk management is like muscle memory.

23 Perceived Risk vs. Actual Risk awareness FUD known vulnerability P E R C E I V E D stealth improvements risk reduction security threat ignorance blind compliance theater A C T U A L

24 Actual Prisoners in a Dilemma 30% of the *me! Cooperate Cheat Cooperate Cheat % of the *me!

25 Where is your residual risk? Business Owner Competitors are gaining. Have to move faster! CEO Products A & B are high risk. C should be safer. Sales That last product didn t sell. I ll sell something else. CFO You came in over budget. Are your numbers accurate? Employees This business is unprofitable. Update my resume! Security Here s our ISO checklist of every mistake anyone s ever made. Prove you haven t.

26 A better business risk conversation Business Owner Here is my project. Is it safe? Security I don t know. Is it? Wait, what? Ummm... Here s my assessment of my risk. I think this is reasonably safe. Here s how to think about safety. Do you think your product is safe? Great, glad to hear it. Can you fix those outliers in your next release?

27 How do you get better?

28 Takeaway: Improve security value!! Andy Ellis Goal of any security program: dv/dt > 0 Below the Security Poverty Line, we see Security Subsistence Syndrome: relying on resources, not capabilities. Goal: dr/dt > 0 A good security program wants to create surplus. Goal: dc/dt > 0

29 Questions, Answers, and Pontifications!! Andy Ellis

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