Current Energy Status

Transcription

1 Opportunities for green jobs & a sustainable future in India s energy scenario Ritu Mathur, TERI National Conference on Green Jobs June, 2010 New Delhi Current Energy Status Installed generating capacity ~ 150,000 MW (~0.13 kw/capita) Per capita consumption of electricity of 733 units North America: 13994, Europe: 6009, World average: 2596 (2005 data) Suffering from huge shortages (2008/09) of ~ 11% in energy terms ~ 12% in peak energy Over 400 million people with no access to electricity 90% of rural India dependent on traditional fuels for cooking 1

2 E n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n p e r c a p i t a ( K g o E ) Increase in commercial energy needs an inevitability! KgoE HDI Linear (HDI ) H D I i n d e x Huge population with unmet demands Developmental goals and energy access to all High targets for economic growth How much? Population in 2031/32 of 1.4 billion Rate of Growth of GDP of 8% per annum Structural shifts towards services Energy to All Lifestyle improvements Reference Energy Demand Projections 2400 Commercial Energy Requirements in Reference Scenario mtoe / / / / / / /32 year Coal Natural Gas Oil Hydro (large & small) Nuclear Solar & Wind Total 2

3 Future Challenges Concerns of: Energy access Energy import vulnerabilities Climate change What then are the options & what are the implications of adopting alternative choices to fuel the country s energy needs? Scenario based illustrative projections So What Shape Can The Future Take? Scenario names Reference Energy Scenario (RES) Sustainable Energy Scenario (SES) Global Equity Scenario (GES) Storyline Development continues along current paths with autonomous efficiency improvements taking place where feasible and increase in use of renewable energy carrying on at the same pace; and defined policy priorities being implemented A determined effort is provided here for efficiency improvements both on the supply and demand sides; an accelerated push for renewable energy, nuclear and new technologies. Energy Security concerns are paramount in this scenario. This scenario honours the Prime Minister of India s commitment that India s per capita carbon emissions would never exceed those of the developed world and it is optimistically assumed here that the developed world would be able to bring down its emissions to a level of 2 tonnes/capita by 2030 as indicated by IPCC AR4. Stringent Mitigation Scenario (SMS) This scenario considers that India takes on an extremely aggressive approach to energy self-sufficiency also resulting in even more stringent emissions reductions. 3

4 Commercial energy consumption Primary commercial energy supply

5 Fossil import dependency Large energy import infrastructure requirements by 2031 in the RES Coal import: ~1400 million tonnes, Oil import: ~750 million tonnes Power generation capacity mix

6 Main Inferences Directional path of the Global Equity Scenario (GES) most attractive, balances multiple considerations of minimising energy imports optimising use of India s substantial renewable energy resources cost effectively, and efficient use of capital. Macro Inferences Key transformations with respect to electricity: Substitution of fossil based thermal energy with electrical energy to the extent technologically possible across all sectors of the economy (eg. transport) Generation of electricity from renewable sources Freezing coal based capacity additions to currently committed levels and phasing out obsolete plants. Move to decentralised electricity generation on a large scale for rural electrification 6

7 Macro Inferences Key transformations with respect to the oil sector Enhanced capacities in the railways, mass transit and public transport systems. Substituting petrol and diesel driven vehicles with hybrid and battery operated vehicles Maximising the substitution of petro-fuels with bio-fuels Key transformations with respect to the coal sector: Accelerating utilisation of India s domestic coal resources Rejection of additional thermal power generation capacity based on imported coal Macro Inferences Significant short term gains (nearly 30%) are possible by increasing energy efficiencies along the entire value chain. What India does in the short term would pave the way for realising its long term opportunities: creating a comfort level with emerging technologies (manufacturing and market creation experience at appropriate scales, human resources, regulatory frameworks etc.); investing in identified R,D&D needs creating a conducive environment for transformational changes awareness generation, education, appropriate policies/regulations for bringing about behavioural changes 7

8 Scope for Green jobs Green Jobs are a prerequisite to achieve green economy Climate Change Challenge calls for large transitions & offers several opportunities for direct & indirect employment generation, skill development, new/green job opportunities Scope of green jobs: Mission on Solar & other renewables including biofuels Green Buildings Public transport & infrastructure development Energy efficiency LABL TECHNOLOGY CYCLE AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION 8

9 Employment Estimates in the Renewable Energy sector, Global and Selected Countries, Renewable Energy Source World/ Selected Countries Employment Wind world 300,000 Solar PV world 115,000 Solar thermal China, Europe, USA 624,000+ Biomass/ Biofuels Brazil, USA, China, Germany 1,174,000 Hydro Power Europe, USA 39,000 Geothermal USA, Germany 25,000 Renewable, combined 2,277,000 Source: UNEP Background paper on green Jobs SOLAR Table 6: Domestic Job Creation Potential In Solar Photovoltaic Low Growth Scenario Moderate Growth Scenario High Growth Scenario Study Renewable Energy Policy Project, , , ,250 6, , ,500 13, , ,000 Greenpeace , , ,000 13, ,800 1,030,000 26,540 1,117,600 2,060,000 Greenpeace and the EPIA, ,588 1,053, , ,175 2,107,000 1,075, ,350 4,214,000 2,150,000 9

10 ESTIMATES WIND ENERGY TIME RANGE ,225 8, , ,975 SOLAR ENERGY TIME RANGE 3, , ,850 42,14, ,250-21,50,000 WIND: HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO *A similar trend is observed for moderate and low growth scenarios. However, the peak shifts i.e. for moderate growth employment potential peaks at 2030 while for low growth it peaks at

11 Bio-Energy 140 million hectares of land not used productively Placing ~ 40 million ha of such land under energy plantation can generate ~ 280 million units of electricity annually through biomass gasifiers of 10 KW each. Avoided capacity of approximately 300 MW (including T&D losses) of conventional power plants OTHER ESTIMATES India could generate 900,000 jobs by 2025 in biomass gasification of which 300,000 would be in the manufacturing of stoves and 600,000 in areas such as processing into briquettes and pellets and the fuel supply chain (UNEP, 2008) National Mission on Decentralized Biomass Energy has a potential to create around 10 million jobs in ten years According to UNEP (2008) the introduction of 6,100 new CNG buses in New Delhi between late 2007 and 2009 was expected to create 18,000 new jobs. 11

12 LaBL - Few facts 1.6 billion people lack access to electricity; 1 in 4 are in India 76 million rural households of the total 138 million in India have no access to electricity 65 million of the above use kerosene for lighting 2.3 billion litres per year Kerosene used for lighting by 65 million average monthly consumption of 3 litres per household Approx 5 million ton CO 2 emitted to the atmosphere by the above About Rs. 70 billion is burnt in smoke every year in wick lamps and kerosene lanterns Introducing LaBL Power to Empower Setting up solar charging stations in villages and renting solar lanterns to displace kerosene lanterns and dibris for better illumination & smoke free indoor environment Providing solar lanterns to facilitate and advance rural livelihood generation Identifying & training entrepreneurs to operate charging stations, provide repair & maintenance services Facilitating creation of energy enterprises on supply and demand side 12

13 LaBL - Prospects for Green jobs Direct employment LaBL has been able to generate direct livelihood for 160 entrepreneurs as charging station operators across 160 villages in 12 states of India, of which 20% are women LaBL is setting up Technology Resource Centres (TRCs) for every 20 charging station that would cater to after sales services in these villages. LaBL envisages setting up 40,000 charging stations by ,000 green jobs (40,000 entrepreneurs) Indirect opportunities Long term implications; extended working hours, livelihood creation, economic enhancement, local employment 15%-20% of the lanterns rented are used for other livelihood options like weaving, sewing, vending, running tuition centres etc. Of the 8000 lanterns disseminated so far, lanterns are being used for these activities. LaBL envisages disseminating 2,000,000 solar lanterns by ,00,000 4,00,000 lanterns likely to be used for other livelihood activities by

14 Green Buildings Annual increase in demand 5.4 billion units needing 5500 MW per 5 year plan period Green buildings savings 30% in residential buildings 40 % in commercial buildings Investing in Green Buildings will reduce subsidies Lower demand for diesel based captive generation Avoid high-cost traded electricity Re-directing this savings as a sustainability incentive would cover % of incremental costs Other areas Solar components and other renewables -Jobs in R&D, innovative technology development and adaptation to suit Indian requirements Public transport and infrastructure development Greater involvement of private sector/ corporates & businesses 14

15 Challenges & strategies Challenges Capacity building Transaction costs Strategies Environmental and social full-cost pricing of energy and material inputs necessary to discourage unsustainable production and consumption & move to green economy Appropriate policy instruments and incentives should be in place to strategize the creation of green jobs and drive the economy in the direction of socio economic development. Government policy instruments may include: financial measures-public investments, subsidy shifts, new R&D priorities and ecological tax reform. Non financial measures- extended producer responsibility laws, eco-labelling. Effective green investment strategy, green R&D and technology transfer can aid in creation of enormous green job/ cleaner livelihood opportunities Conclusion Creation of green jobs/ cleaner livelihood opportunities is imperative to achieve a sustainable socio economic growth. Creation of green job in one sector of the economy has the potential to radiate across large sections of economy thus greening commensurately large sections of the total workforce. India should holistically focus on creating green jobs in various sectors of growth such as energy efficient buildings, transportation and agriculture sector. Suitable policies and regulatory framework should be in place to realize the dream of India achieving sustainable development. 15

16 RECOMMENDATIONS Integrated design and targeted implementation of policies Capacity building and skill development Mobilization of financial resources Thank You 16