Canada s Tourism Sector:

Transcription

1 MARCH 2012 The Future of Canada s Tourism Sector: Shortages to Resurface as Labour Markets Tighten WHAT S INSIDE: This brochure summarizes the main findings of the report, The Future of Canada s Tourism Sector: Shortages to Resurface as Labour Markets Tighten. The study quantifies the implications of long-term demographic and economic trends on the supply and demand for labour in Canada s tourism sector. It outlines potential labour shortages by industry and occupation, as well as by province and sub-provincial region. PREPARED FOR: The Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council PREPARED BY: The Canadian Tourism Research Institute The Conference Board of Canada

2 THE FUTURE OF CANADA S TOURISM SECTOR Between 2012 and 2030, Canada s tourism sector will face a potentially severe shortage of labour. It has been estimated that the tourism sector had a shortfall of 23,700 jobs in While the effects of the recession of were largely negative, tourism businesses experienced a temporary reprieve from labour shortages. However, in regions of the country where the economic recovery was stronger shortages have returned, and are expected to re-emerge nationwide by As demand for labour grows, the pool of available workers will have an increasingly difficult time keeping up. Canada s ageing population will cause a significant deceleration in labour force growth over the long term. The consequences of labour shortages such as missed opportunities for investment in the sector and the inability to meet potential demand could cost Canadian tourism businesses billions of dollars. Despite weak consumer confidence following the recession and increased economic uncertainty over the medium term, shortages will worsen progressively over the next years. The latest projections suggest the sector s supply of labour could fall short of potential demand by an estimated 228,000 jobs 1 by 2030, leaving 10.7 per cent of potential labour demand unfilled. Over the next two decades, Canada will see a dramatic slowdown in the growth of its labour force. While rising immigration will partially offset the retirement of the baby boomers, it will not be enough to sustain growth in the Canadian labour force over the long term. Declining birth rates are expected to curb the growth of young entrants to the labour force, and these young workers are a critical source of labour for the tourism sector. Furthermore, the young workforce that tourism relies on makes the sector more vulnerable to turnover. It is expected that over 85 per cent of future labour shortages will be a result of these employee departures. Given these challenges, the Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council and The Conference Board of Canada have incorporated the effects of the economic recession of and the subsequent recovery in into this updated forecast for tourism employment. The forecast is presented by tourism industry and occupation, and by Canadian province and sub-provincial region. ECONOMIC RECOVERY LEADS TO INCREASED DEMAND FOR TOURISM GOODS AND SERVICES Tourism demand is the spending by Canadian and non-resident visitors on tourism goods and services, such as accommodation and transportation, as well as spending on other goods and services related to tourism activity, such as retail purchases. Associated non-tourism demand includes spending by local residents within the tourism sector. Despite the effects of the economic recession in and ongoing economic uncertainty, the potential demand for tourism goods and services is projected to grow at a healthy pace over the long term. The updated forecast of the potential demand for tourism-related goods and services in Canada by both tourists and local residents suggests that spending could rise from nearly $189 billion 2 in 2010 to nearly $294 billion in Real spending by domestic and foreign tourists could increase 77 percent, while spending on tourism goods and services by local residents could increase 42 per cent (Figure 1). 1. For this study, a job is defined as work for the period of one year, regardless of whether it is full-time or part-time. A job may be work for 10 hours per week or 40 hours per week, as long as it is for one year. If the work is only for three months of the year, then it counts for one quarter of a job. 2. Inflation-adjusted (constant) 2010 dollars. 2

3 Shortages to Resurface as Labour Markets Tighten Figure 1: Potential Tourism and Associated Non-Tourism Demand in Canada (2010 $ millions) $80,112 $87,851 $96,653 $106,125 $116,768 $12,127 $13,005 $14,279 $15,685 $17,202 $55,364 $62, Tourism demand 73,370 85,089 98, , ,010 Domestic 58,508 68,898 80,532 93, ,762 Foreign 14,862 16,191 17,510 18,880 20,248 Non-tourism demand 115, , , , ,838 Total demand 188, , , , ,848 $69,254 $75,498 $81,931 $22,854 $25,639 $29,820 $34,449 $39, $3,515 $3,613 $3,579 $3,513 $3, $2,787 $3,291 $3,853 $4,475 $5, $12,076 $15,204 $19,026 $23,732 $29,618 TRANSPORTATION ACCOMMODATION FOOD AND BEVERAGE SERVICES RECREATION AND ENTERTAINMENT TRAVEL SERVICES OTHER TOURISM COMMODITIES OTHER COMMODITIES Other commodities includes visitor spending outside of the tourism sector on goods and service such as groceries and retail purchases. GROWTH IN SPENDING CREATES JOBS TO MEET THE DEMAND Robust growth in spending on tourism goods and services is expected to fuel strong demand for labour. Tourism labour demand could potentially increase 33 per cent from an estimated 1.61 million jobs in 2010 to 2.14 million jobs in 2030 (Figure 2). Alberta, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan CAN THE SUPPLY OF LABOUR MATCH DEMAND? The strong growth projected for tourism labour demand raises the question of whether the supply of labour can keep up. After all, if there is not enough labour supply available to fulfill the potential demand for labour, some of that demand will go unfilled. Feedback from focus group participants suggests that difficulty finding workers can lead to reductions in service quality and in some cases even reductions in tourism offerings. Can labour supply match demand? Demographic projections suggest this is unlikely. Low fertility rates, longer life spans and the aging of the baby-boom generation will limit labour force growth. Although immigration rates are rising, Canada s focus on highly-skilled immigrants is unlikely to fill the gap in tourism jobs. are expected to generate the highest rate of growth in labour demand. Conversely, growth in potential demand is expected to be lowest in the Atlantic Provinces, largely due to weak growth in the region s population. Projections suggest the supply of labour in the tourism sector will grow much more slowly than labour demand. The supply of labour is expected to grow at 1.2 per cent a year between 2010 and 2015, and expand more slowly from 2015 onward, causing supply to reach 1.9 million in Labour demand however, will grow 1.9 per cent a year between 2010 and 2015, and 1.3 per cent a year between 2015 and 2030, resulting in an escalating gap between the number of potential jobs and the number of employees available to fill them. By 2030, the demand for labour will be over 2.1 million full-year jobs. The resulting gap between labour demand and labour supply could result in 10.7 per cent of demand going unfilled (Figure 2). 3

4 THE FUTURE OF CANADA S TOURISM SECTOR Figure 2: The Growing Gap between Labour Demand and Available Workers 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 LABOUR DEMAND LABOUR SUPPLY 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600, LABOUR SHORTAGES ARE PROJECTED TO ESCALATE The recent recession caused a dramatic change in labour market conditions, and many segments of the tourism sector experienced a surplus of labour as a result. The estimates suggest that there was a surplus equivalent to just over 9,700 full-year jobs in 2010 and over 13,000 in However, labour demand in the sector is expected to increase by an average annual pace of 1.6 per cent over 2010 to 2014, while the potential supply of labour will increase at a more modest average annual pace of 1.2 per cent. In general, for every 1 per cent that the growth rate in labour demand exceeds that of labour supply labour shortages will increase by 16,000 jobs. As growth in demand outpaces growth in labour supply, the remaining surplus will disappear and the sector will return to shortages equivalent to 3,709 full-year jobs in The return of shortages will not be uniform across the country. Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador s tourism sectors returned to shortages in In 2011, they were joined by Alberta. At the same time, Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia experienced sizable labour surpluses during In fact, the analysis suggests that labour surpluses are likely to persist for many regions and provinces into 2013 or beyond (Figure 3). In this study, labour gaps are presented in two different ways; in absolute numbers and as a relative proportion. For example, a region with potential labour demand of 10,000 jobs but only enough supply to fill 9,000 jobs will have a shortage of 1,000 jobs, or 10% of total demand. However, a smaller region, one with potential labour demand of 1,000 jobs which falls 150 jobs short of that demand, will have a smaller numerical shortage but a more acute shortage in terms of the per cent of unfilled labour demand (15%). Figure 3: Return to Shortages, by Year and Province Newfoundland & Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia

5 Shortages to Resurface as Labour Markets Tighten LONG-TERM LABOUR SHORTAGES TO 2030 Expanding demand for tourism goods and services, combined with the slowing growth of the Canadian labour force, will lead to a potentially severe shortage of labour in the tourism sector. Figure 4: Long-Term Labour Shortage By 2015, tourism labour supply in Canada is projected to exceed demand by over 47,775 full-year jobs; by 2030, this figure could balloon to nearly 228,500 jobs (Figure 4) , , , , ,745 SHORTAGES WILL AFFECT MOST INDUSTRY GROUPS The largest of the five tourism industries is food and beverage services. Over the next 20 years that industry is projected to see the largest increases in both labour demand and labour supply. However, as with the tourism sector in general, the supply of labour is expected to fall short of demand. By 2030, this industry s potential supply of labour could fall short of demand by 11.8 per cent, nearly 137,000 full-year jobs. The recreation and entertainment industry is expected to endure the most acute shortage as a percentage of overall labour demand. By 2030, the supply of labour could fall short of demand by nearly 46,000 full-year jobs, 13.3 per cent of potential labour demand. Shortages are also projected for transportation and accommodation. The only industry not expected to endure a labour shortage over the next 20 years is travel services (Figure 5). Figure 5: Labour Shortages by Industry Group ,403 10,662 19,175 26,321-1,737 4,922 9,868 17,230 25,585-6,636 34,802 76, , ,719 Potential Labour Gap in Tourism as a Per Cent of Labour Demand Transportation 9.5% Accommodation 8.3% Food and beverage services 11.8% Recreation and entertainment 13.3% Travel services -12.0% Tourism Sector 10.7% ,433 20,027 35,451 45, ,649-4,839-5,889 TRANSPORTATION ACCOMMODATION FOOD & BEVERAGE SERVICES RECREATION & ENTERTAINMENT TRAVEL SERVICES SHORTAGES WILL AFFECT MOST OCCUPATIONS Four of the five tourism occupations expected to have the most significant shortage of workers over the next years are in the food and beverage services industry. The largest labour shortages by far are projected for food-counter attendants and kitchen helpers, as well as food and beverage servers; by 2030, these occupations could experience shortages equivalent to nearly 43,000 and 39,000 full-year jobs, respectively. Other occupations in the top-five list of shortages include cooks, bartenders, and program leaders and instructors in recreation and sport (Figure 6a). The occupational group projected to suffer the most acute labour shortage is air pilots, flight engineers, and flying instructors, by 2030, demand for workers in this occupation could fall short of supply by 23.2 per cent. Landscaping and ground maintenance workers, bartenders, and security guards are also expected to suffer acute shortages of labour (See Figure 6b). 5

6 THE FUTURE OF CANADA S TOURISM SECTOR Figure 6a: Potential Labour Shortages by Occupation* 2030 Food-counter attendants and kitchen helpers* 42,690 Food and beverage servers* 38,782 Cooks* 20,536 Bartenders* 8,738 Program leaders / instructors in recreation and sport* 6,267 *The figures for these occupations include the combined labour shortages from the food and beverage services, accommodation, and recreation and entertainment industries, where applicable. Figure 6b: Occupations With the Most Acute Labour Shortage In Relative Terms (per cent short of meeting labour demand) 2030 Air pilots, flight engineers, and flying instructors 23.2% Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers 21.1% Bartenders* 20.7% Security guards and related occupations 18.0% Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors 15.7% *The figure for bartenders includes the combined labour shortages from the food and beverage services and accommodation industries. SHORTAGES WILL AFFECT ALL PROVINCES Projections for potential tourism labour shortages by province indicate that Ontario will experience the largest shortage, while areas of Atlantic Canada are expected to endure the most acute shortages, as a percentage of overall potential labour demand. By 2030, Ontario s supply of labour could fall short of potential labour demand by over 88,000 full-year jobs. Figure 7: Potential Tourism Labour Gap by Province and City Substantial labour shortages are also expected for Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta (Figure 7). On the other hand, potential labour shortages in the tourism sector are projected to range from 12.1 per cent in Prince Edward Island to 17 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador (Figure 8) Newfoundland and Labrador ,054 2,840 3,553 St. John s ,009 1,364 1,683 Prince Edward Island ,104 Charlottetown Nova Scotia ,476 3,138 4,973 6,708 Halifax ,025 2,013 2,893 3,732 New Brunswick ,133 4,489 5,347 Saint John Quebec -2,544 8,760 25,350 42,008 49,429 Québec City ,519 4,376 5,342 Montréal -2,903 5,574 14,210 20,198 21,487 Ontario -5,008 18,307 47,957 67,453 88,175 Toronto -5,032 10,249 24,482 30,169 36,743 Ottawa ,949 5,824 9,141 Niagara Falls ,461 2,159 2,702 Manitoba 4 1,926 3,316 4,826 6,119 Winnipeg 72 1,411 2,414 3,499 4,391 Saskatchewan 197 1,637 3,668 5,624 7,396 Regina ,173 1,651 2,068 Saskatoon ,607 2,198 2,756 Alberta ,759 11,683 18,065 24,562 Edmonton ,666 4,255 6,156 8,113 Calgary ,905 4,763 7,605 10,268 British Columbia -1,268 6,083 14,037 22,667 35,085 Victoria ,967 3,490 Vancouver 438 5,757 10,352 12,764 16,952 Total Shortage (Surplus) -9,745 47, , , ,479 6

7 Shortages to Resurface as Labour Markets Tighten Figure 8: Labour Shortages as a Per Cent of Labour Demand, by Province and City St. John s -0.6% 6.7% 10.8% 14.5% 17.7% Charlottetown -1.4% 5.7% 8.5% 9.5% 11.9% Halifax -2.3% 4.6% 8.8% 12.4% 15.8% Saint John -3.1% 1.0% 7.1% 13.7% 16.2% Québec City -1.5% 1.5% 6.1% 10.0% 11.7% Montréal -1.6% 2.8% 6.8% 9.3% 9.5% Toronto -2.0% 3.6% 7.7% 8.9% 10.1% Ottawa 0.6% 1.0% 4.7% 8.4% 12.0% Niagara Falls -3.0% 1.0% 3.9% 5.6% 6.9% Winnipeg 0.2% 3.2% 5.1% 6.9% 8.0% Regina 2.0% 4.9% 8.8% 11.5% 13.6% Saskatoon 1.7% 5.6% 9.7% 12.4% 14.6% Edmonton -0.5% 4.7% 6.9% 9.1% 11.2% Calgary -0.7% 4.1% 6.1% 8.9% 11.2% Victoria 0.2% 1.0% 3.2% 7.0% 11.4% Vancouver 0.3% 3.6% 6.0% 7.0% 8.9% Newfoundland and Labrador 17.0% British Columbia 9.6% Alberta 10.3% Saskatchewan 12.0% Manitoba 7.5% Ontario 10.6% Quebec 11.2% Prince Edward Island 12.1% CANADA 10.7% New Brunswick 15.6% Nova Scotia 14.5% RISKS TO THE FORECAST Any forecast is fraught with uncertainty, and this is especially true during the current turbulent economic environment. As a result, the projections for the timing and intensity of the looming shortages may vary considerably under a different set of assumptions. In this update the potential impact of two different scenarios on tourism labour supply and demand was explored. High Demand Growth Scenario The first scenario examined the impact of successfully achieving $100 billion in tourism revenues by 2015 as outlined in Canada s Federal Tourism Strategy (FTS). The strategy will achieve this increase by investing in tourism infrastructure, increasing awareness of Canada as a premier tourist destination, facilitating access and movement for travellers and supporting tourism businesses. The base case estimate for tourism revenues in 2015 is $96.3 billion 3, $3.7 billion less than the target established in the FTS. To meet this additional $3.7 billion worth of demand for tourism goods and services, the number of full-year jobs required by the tourism sector will rise from 1.76 million to almost 1.79 million, a 1.4 per cent increase that equals 23,842 full-year jobs. With no corresponding increase in the supply of labour, this will increase the estimated labour shortage in 2015 from 47,775 jobs to 71,616 jobs (Figure 9 & 10). 3. This study measures revenues in constant (2010) dollars. The Federal Tourism Strategy measures revenues in current dollars, unadjusted for inflation. To make the comparison possible, the base-case tourism demand was converted from $85 billion ($constant) to $96.3 billion ($current). Non-tourism demand is not affected in this scenario. 7

8 THE FUTURE OF CANADA S TOURISM SECTOR Low Demand Growth Scenario This scenario was guided by the United Nations report World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012, which examines the potential economic ramifications of an escalating European debt crisis. A disruptive resolution to that crisis was assumed to have significant repercussions on both global and domestic economic growth, reducing employment, disposable income and consumer confidence. Considering the complexity of capturing all aspects of this scenario, the analysis was restricted to a short-term perspective and only at a national level. Compared to the base case, the analysis suggests that the downside scenario would result in an overall reduction of $5 billion in tourism demand by Compared to the base case, under this scenario, the number of tourism jobs required in 2015 would drop from 1.76 million to 1.71 million. In total, Canada s tourism sector would need 46,107 less full-year jobs if the current European debt crisis plays out as envisioned in this scenario. Notwithstanding, due to weakening growth in the labour force, there would still be a small tourism labour shortage in equal to 1,668 jobs in 2015 (Figure 9 & 10). Figure 9: Increase in Labour Demand by Base Case, Low Demand Scenario and High Demand Scenario 1,800,000 1,750,000 High Demand Low Demand Base Case 1,700,000 Labour Supply 1,650,000 1,600, Figure 10: Labour Shortages by Base Case, Low Demand Scenario and High Demand Scenario 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 LABOUR SHORTAGE High Demand Low Demand Base Case 0-20,000-40,000-60, LABOUR SURPLUS 8

9 Shortages to Resurface as Labour Markets Tighten REACTING TO THE LABOUR GAP THE IMPACT OF RAISING WAGES Economic theory suggests that tight labour conditions will inevitably lead to higher wages as competition for workers intensifies. However, using wage increases as the sole strategy for attracting workers has significant disadvantages. Raising wages in the sector would increase the supply of labour equivalent to 34,215 full-year jobs overall, a modest 15 per cent of the total potential labour shortage projected for the tourism sector in 2030 (Figure 11). The remainder of the shortage would be eliminated due to a significant reduction in tourism demand. In other words, raising wages would not be enough to stimulate a significant increase in labour supply, and would stifle the growth of the tourism sector. In taking this approach, tourism demand would be reduced by 7.9 per cent by 2030, costing the sector an estimated $23.2 billion in potential spending. This is clearly not a desirable outcome. Instead raising the productivity of the tourism sector, as well as attracting additional labour supply at the prevailing wage rates would allow the sector to meet its full economic potential. Figure 11: Additional Tourism Labour Supply Generated by Raising Wages in Canada Base Case 2030 Transportation 1,670 3,766 6,060 8,349 26,321 Accommodation 1,208 2,125 3,460 5,138 25,585 Food and beverage services 4,266 8,658 11,944 15, ,719 Recreation and entertainment 529 2,388 4,289 5,534 45,743 Travel services ,889 Total Additional Supply 7,673 16,936 25,752 34, ,479 ARE NON-WAGE BENEFITS AN EFFECTIVE TOOL? While labour shortages could be alleviated if wages were increased sufficiently, this would force employers to pass the cost increases on to customers, thereby stifling tourism demand and imposing a heavy toll on the tourism sector s profitability. With this mind, a survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted during December 2011 to assess the potential of using non-wage benefits to cope with labour shortages. Among employed Canadians, the survey focused on the non-wage related benefits that improved retention. Respondents who were not employed were asked to rank the different benefits in terms of their importance when considering an offer of employment. The results indicate that for Canadians who are currently employed, vacation time of more than two weeks, health and dental plans, and short-term and long-term disability benefits are the most important non-wage benefits keeping them with their current employer. Not surprisingly, the results for not employed respondents revealed that a competitive wage or salary was most important when considering an offer of employment. However, this was closely followed by health and dental plans, the opportunity for advancement and vacation time of more than two weeks. Non-wage Benefits The Year Old Labour Force Young workers are an important source of labour in the tourism sector. According to the 2006 census, 15 per cent of Canada s labour force was under 25 years of age whereas 33 per cent of the tourism labour force was under 25. This has an important effect on shortage projections. Over 85 per cent of projected shortages will be due to turnover within the tourism sector. The occupations that exhibit the highest turnover rates are those considered to be entry-level or near entry-level. These are also the occupations with the largest share of jobs held by workers aged 15 to 24. Therefore, reducing turnover among workers aged 18 to 24 can significantly reduce expected shortages. Employers seeking to retain workers aged 24 and under would best consider offering health and dental plans, vacation time of more than two weeks, and flexible hours. Employers looking to 9

10 THE FUTURE OF CANADA S TOURISM SECTOR recruit staff aged 24 and under should recognize that money is not necessarily the most important consideration for this age group. While rated highly, emphasizing opportunities for advancement, health and dental plans, and flexible hours as well as a competitive wage will be beneficial when recruiting young workers (Figure 12). Figure 12: Importance of Wage/Salary and Various Non-Wage Benefits Year Olds Average Rating (scale of 1 10) Employed Year Olds Not-Employed Year Olds Benefit Rating Benefit/Wage Offered Rating Health/Dental Plan 8.2 Opportunity for Advancement 8.8 Vacation > 2 Weeks 8.1 Health/Dental Plan 8.7 Flex time 7.9 Flex time 8.5 Employee Life Insurance 7.5 Competitive Wage/Salary 8.4 Short-term Disability 7.5 Employee Discounts 8.2 The Effect of Non-Wage Benefits on Attraction and Retention Employed respondents were also asked which benefits their employer currently offered, and whether they were actively seeking another job at the time of the survey. These questions allowed the construction of a model that estimated the link between employee retention and the benefits offered to young workers aged 18 to 24. The analysis revealed that expanding the coverage of the number of employees who are offered formal/informal training, the opportunity for advancement and vacation of more than two weeks can have a significant impact on labour supply. In particular, the analysis suggests that expanding coverage by 20 percentage points could reduce turnover by 25 per cent and attract a further 1.4 per cent of the Canada s overall 18 to 24 year old labour force to the tourism sector. By 2030, these combined impacts can potentially reduce the shortage in entry-level occupations typically staffed by year olds by over 52,000 jobs (65.5 per cent) (Figure 13). Figure 13: Impact of Increased Retention and Attraction in 2030 (reduction in shortage associated with increasing benefit coverage on entry-level positions staffed by 15 to 24 year olds) Total Expected Labour Shortage 2030 Labour shortage for entry-level jobs typically staffed by year olds, 2030 Combined retention & attraction effect of a 20% increase in benefits, 2030 Transportation 26, Accommodation 25,585 3,903-2,555 Food and beverage services 136,719 66,695-43,673 Recreation and entertainment 45,743 9,154-5,994 Travel services -5, Total Labour Shortage 228,479 79,836-52,279 Providing non-wage benefits comes at a cost, which will need to be carefully considered and weighed against other alternatives, such as increasing wages. Nevertheless, the analysis suggests that businesses competing on the basis of non-wage benefits can expect to see noticeable improvements in employee retention and attraction. If financially viable, expanding the scope of non-wage benefits offered has the potential to be part of an effective strategy in helping tourism businesses cope with labour shortages. 10

11 Shortages to Resurface as Labour Markets Tighten CONCLUSION Expanding demand for tourism goods and services, combined with the slowing growth of the Canadian labour force, could result in significant labour shortages for the tourism sector. The Canadian economy fell into a recession in the final quarter of 2008, causing a dramatic change in labour market conditions. Demand for labour fell, and many segments of the tourism sector experienced a surplus of labour in While economic conditions, for the most part, improved during 2010 and 2011, the number of new hires in the sector has been curtailed by continuing economic uncertainty and rising costs for many tourism businesses. The current analysis suggests that labour shortages will ramp up by the middle of this decade and by 2030 will balloon to 228,000 jobs. This would leave 10.7 per cent of potential labour demand unfilled. The provinces with the largest shortfall in labour are those with the largest populations: Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta. However, it is the smaller provinces that will suffer the most acute shortages, particularly the Atlantic Provinces where shortages will range from 12.1 per cent of demand in Prince Edward Island, up to 17 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador. It must be stated that these shortages are not inevitable. The forecast assumes that the relative attractiveness of tourism occupations, basic job responsibilities, wages relative to other sectors and access to education or training programs will remain constant over the forecast horizon. This may not necessarily prove to be true. Changes to the status quo can allow the tourism sector to increase its supply of labour over the long term. It is within the power of government, industry associations and tourism businesses to significantly reduce these shortfalls. Finding ways, such as increasing non-wage benefits, to attract and retain more workers, will result in jobs being filled thereby reducing shortages and allowing the Canadian tourism sector to meet its full economic potential. 11

12 THE FUTURE OF CANADA S TOURISM SECTOR: FAST FACTS The potential demand for tourism related goods and services in Canada by both tourists and local residents could rise from nearly $189 billion in 2010 to nearly $294 billion in 2030 Demand for labour in the tourism sector could grow from 1.61 million jobs to 2.14 million jobs in 2030 The supply of labour is expected to grow more slowly than the demand for labour. By 2030, the supply of labour is expected to be equal to 1.9 million jobs By 2015, tourism labour demand in Canada is projected to have exceeded supply by over 47,775 full-year jobs; by 2030, this figure could balloon to nearly 228,500 jobs The largest labour shortages by far are projected for food-counter attendants and kitchen helpers, as well as food and beverage servers The provinces and cities of Atlantic Canada are expected to endure the most acute shortages Increasing the number of employees receiving various non-wage benefits could significantly reduce labour shortages This brochure summarizes the main findings of the report, The Future of Canada s Tourism Sector: Shortages to Resurface as Labour Markets Tighten. The report and provincial summaries are available on the CTHRC website: For more information, contact: research@cthrc.ca The Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council (CTHRC) works on behalf of the 176,000 businesses that make up Canada s vibrant tourism sector. Established in 1993, the CTHRC promotes professionalism throughout the sector and addresses key labour market issues. Collectively, Council members and the CTHRC bring together Canadian tourism businesses, labour unions, associations, educators and governments to co-ordinate human resource development activities and contribute to a sustainable, globally competitive tourism sector. The CTHRC also conducts tourism labour market research on topics such as compensation, return on training investment, integration of foreign trained workers, sector demographics, annual labour market survey, and much, more. This project is funded by the Government of Canada Sector Council Program The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada.