PRESS RELEASE Brussels, 16 th November 2016
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1 PRESS RELEASE Brussels, 16 th November 2016 Harmonised index of consumer prices - October 2016 o Belgium's inflation rate based on the European harmonised index of consumer prices was running at 1.9% in October compared to 1.8% in September. o Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) slowed to 1.8% in October from 2.0% in September. o The sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation were electricity, wine, tobacco, telecommunication, restaurants, cafés and similar services, purchase of passenger vehicles as well as fuels and lubricants. o Most of the downward pressure on inflation in September came from gas, clothing and vegetables. o The harmonised index of consumer prices for the EU member states of October will be published by Eurostat on 17 November. 5% Inflation 4% Inflation rate (%) 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2016 HICP HICP-CT Inflation of the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) i amounted to 1.9% in October compared to 1.8% in September. Inflation based on the harmonised index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) ii was running at 1.3% in October, up from 1.1% in September. The difference in inflation between the HICP and the HICP- CT is largely due to the introduction of an increased tax on energy in the Flemish Region and to changes in excise duties on motor fuels. These increases are not taken into account in the HICP-CT. In addition to the monthly national consumer price index (CPI), also calculates a European harmonised consumer price index (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used to compare inflation rates in the EU Member States. To this end, the applied expenditure approach and methods have been coordinated as well as possible and laid down in European regulations. The results of the CPI and HICP are not the same. This is mainly due to a different weighting and composition of the basket of goods and services on which these indices are based. Find out more on the HICP on page 7 i.
2 2/7 Inflation and effect on inflation for the 12 main groups Based on the breakdown into 12 main groups, the highest inflation rate in October was measured for "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" (7.2%). The high inflation rate for "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" is partly due to increases in excise duties. Without these increases, the inflation rate for this group would have reached 2.6%. The lowest inflation rate was measured for "education" (0.0%). The main group with the largest upward effect on inflation in October was "Alcoholic beverages and tobacco" with an effect on inflation of 0.3 percentage point. "Food and non-alcoholic beverages", "clothing and footwear", "interior decoration and household appliances", "recreation and culture" and health had all of them a downward effect on inflation of -0.1 percentage point. Product group Inflation iii and effect iv on inflation for the overall HICP and 12 main groups Weight ( ) Inflation on annual basis (%) Effect on inflation HICP HICP-CT (percentage point) Aug/16 Sep/16 Oct/16 Oct/16 Aug/16 Sep/16 Oct/16 0 Total expenditure Food and non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Clothing and footwear Housing, water and energy Interior decoration and household 5 appliances Health Transport Communication Recreation and culture Education Hotels, cafés and restaurants Various goods and services Inflation according to specific aggregates The overall HICP can be broken down into five specific aggregates which together form the total expenditure. The inflation rate for fuels and energy sources has gone up. It was running at 3.6% in October compared to 0.4% in September and -0.1% in August. Prices increased on average by 2.4% compared to the previous month. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is -2.3%. Inflation for processed food products stood at 3.3% in October, compared to 3.2% in September. Prices increased on average by 0.4% compared to September.
3 Inflation for unprocessed food (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish) amounted to 1.6% in October compared to 2.0% in September. Prices increased by 0.6% compared to September. The average inflation rate of this aggregate for the last twelve months is 2.8%. Inflation for non-energy industrial goods was running at 1.0% in October, compared to 0.9% in September. Prices increased by 0.2% compared to September. Inflation for services decreased to 1.9% in October from 2.3% in September. Prices remained stable on average compared to September. 3/7 Core inflation (inflation without energy and unprocessed food) stood at 1.8% in October, down from 2.0% in September. Prices increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month. Inflation according to specific aggregates Weight ( ) Inflation on annual basis (%) 12-month average (%) Monthly change Specific aggregates Aug/16 Sep/16 Oct/16 Oct/16 Oct/16 Total expenditure Fuels and energy sources Processed food products Unprocessed food Non-energy industrial goods Services HICP without energy and unprocessed food (core inflation) Effect of sub-indices on inflation The largest downward effect on inflation came from gas (-0.28 percentage point). The effect of clothing amounted to percentage point. Vegetables had a contribution of percentage point. Sub-indices with the largest downward effect on inflation Effect on inflation Weight ( ) Sub-index (percentage point) 2016 Oct/ Gas Clothing Vegetables
4 The largest upward effect was caused by electricity (0.36 percentage point). Wine provided an effect of 0.12 percentage point. Tobacco provided an effect of 0.10 percentage point. Telecommunication provided an effect of 0.09 percentage point. Restaurants, cafés and similar services had an effect of 0.08 percentage point. Finally, purchase of passenger vehicles and fuels and lubricants both had an effect of 0.07 percentage point. Sub-indices with the largest upward effect on inflation Effect on inflation Weight ( ) Sub-index (percentage point) 2016 Oct/ Electricity Wine Tobacco Telecommunication Restaurants, cafés and similar services Purchase of passenger vehicles Fuels and lubricants /7
5 5/7 Comparison with neighbouring countries Since the HICP of the neighbouring countries will not be published until later, comparisons can only be made for the month of September. Inflation in Belgium was running at 1.8% in September, down from 2.0% in August. The Netherlands registered an inflation rate of -0.1% in September; this was a decrease compared to an inflation rate of 0.1% in August. France's inflation rate was running at 0.5% in September, up from 0.4% in August. In Germany inflation in September increased to 0.5% compared to 0.3% in Augustus. 4,0 HICP 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0 01/ / / / / / / /2014 Inflation (%) 09/ / / / / / /2016 Belgium Germany France Netherlands Belgium also registered the highest inflation rate based on the HICP-CT compared to the neighbouring countries. Belgium's inflation rate based on the HICP-CT stood at 1.1% in September, representing an increase from a rate of 0.9% in August. This inflation rate in Germany went up from 0.3% in August to 0.5% in September. This inflation rate in France also went up from 0.2% in August to 0.3% in September. Inflation in the Netherlands was running at - 0.2%, down from the zero inflation in August. 4,0 HICP-CT 3,0 Inflation (%) 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / /2016 Belgium Germany France Netherlands 05/ /2016
6 6/7 Additional information For more information, please contact Stephan Moens: +32 (0)2/ Source. Additional figures Tables with detailed data can be found on:
7 7/7 Technical explanation i In addition to the national consumer price index (CPI), also calculates a European harmonised consumer price index (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP). The HICP is used to compare inflation rates in the EU Member States. To this end, the applied expenditure approach and methods have been coordinated as well as possible and laid down in European regulations. The results of the CPI and HICP are not the same. This is mainly due to a different weighting and composition of the basket of goods and services on which these indices are based. The HICP is also used by the European Central Bank in its monetary policy. Additionally, the HICP is used to determine to what extent a Member State meets the inflation criteria set in the Treaty on European Union. Differences between the HICP and the current CPI are: The weighting of the basket of goods and services in the HICP is mainly based on the national accounts. At lower detailed levels the Household Budget Survey is used. The CPI mostly uses the Household Budget Survey at all levels. The reference population of the HICP consists of private households and institutional households (e.g. retirement homes and nursing homes). In the CPI, this population currently consists of private households with a reference person under a maximum age. The HICP uses the concept of domestic expenditure: expenditure in Belgium by the reference population. The CPI uses the concept of national expenditure: expenditure by the reference population irrespective of the location. Seasonal adjustment is not applied in the HICP, but is applied in the CPI to travels abroad and stays in holiday villages. Sales periods in the CPI are systematically spread over 6 months, but are included in the same month in the HICP. Current prices for domestic heating oil are used in the HICP calculation. A weighted 12-month average is applied in the CPI calculation. ii The HICP-CT is calculated in the same manner as the regular HICP, but the prices in this index are calculated based on constant tax rates. This index therefore reflects the theoretically potential effect of changes in indirect tax rates (such as VAT or excise duties) on measured inflation. However, this is a theoretical effect, since it presupposes that tax changes are immediately and entirely reflected in prices paid by consumers. iii Inflation on annual basis measures the price changes between the current month and the same month of the year before. A 12-month average compares the average HICP of the last 12 months with the average of the previous 12 months. A monthly change compares the price levels of the last two months. iv An effect on inflation shows the changes on the inflation rate by including the sub-index in the HICP. The effect not only takes the weight of the sub-index into account, but it also takes into account if the sub-index inflation is higher or lower than that of the total expenditure (overall HICP).
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