2010 WORLD POPULATION DATA SHEET
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1 2010 WORLD POPULATION DATA SHEET Fewer and Fewer Workers to Support Aging Population PRESENTATIONS BY CARL HAUB, JAMES GRIBBLE, AND LINDA JACOBSEN JULY 2010 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
2 WORLD POPULATION Billion
3 WORLD POPULATION Billion
4 Global Population Growth Is Almost Entirely Concentrated in the World's Poorer Countries. Number of People Billions World 9 Population (in Billions): Developing Countries 1 Developed Countries Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
5 World Population: Number of Years to Reach Each Billion First All of Human History ca Second 130 years (1930) Third 30 years (1960) Fourth 14 years (1974) Fifth 13 years (1987) Sixth 12 years (1999) Seventh 12 years (2011) Eighth 13 years (2024)? Sources: Population Reference Bureau estimates and projections and United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
6 Age 80+ The Aging Population of Developed Countries Guarantees Little Population Growth and Aging Males Females Millions Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (medium variant), 2010 estimates.
7 Age Developing Countries Youthfulness Guarantees Long-Term Population Growth Males Females Millions Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (medium variant), 2010 estimates.
8 Asia and Africa Will Account For Nearly All Population Growth. Millions 6,000 5,424 5,000 4,000 4, ,000 2,000 2,084 1,000 1, Asia Africa Latin America/Carib. North America Europe Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet.
9 The Demographic Divide The Example of Ethiopia and Germany ETHIOPIA GERMANY Population million 82 million Population 2050 (projected) 174 million 72 million Lifetime Births per Woman Annual Number of Births 3,300, ,000 Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births Annual Number of Infant Deaths 250,000 2,300 Life Expectancy at Birth Percent of Population Below Age Percent of Population Age Elderly Support Ratio, Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet.
10 How Many Children Do Women Say Is Ideal? Egypt Indonesia Dominican Republic TFR: 3.0 TFR: 2.6 TFR: 2.4 Source: Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).
11 How Many Children Do Women Say Is Ideal? Uganda Zambia Niger TFR: 6.5 TFR: 6.2 TFR: 7.1 Source: Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).
12 Why Is Future World Population Growth Uncertain? Slow or very little birth rate decline in sub-saharan Africa. Considerable doubt over reaching 2.1 children in major states of India with half of the country s population. Possible relaxation of China s one-child policy within 10 years. Lack of commitment in many sub-saharan African countries to population. Social/cultural resistance to only two or fewer children. Preference for sons. Fewer funds for foreign aid due to stressed economies. Reduced willingness to provide foreign aid due to concerns about corruption.
13 The Number of People of Typical Working Age (15-64) per Person of Retirement Age (65+) Will Decrease. Elderly Support Ratio Developed countries Developing countries Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
14 TOTAL DEPENDENCY RATIO: The Examples of France and Bangladesh
15 Globally, Total Dependency Has Been Decreasing and Is Starting to Increase. Total Dependency Ratio Total dependency ratio: the number of persons under age 15 and over age 65 divided by the number of persons ages Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
16 The Increase Is Due to Increasing Old-Age Dependency Worldwide. Dependency Ratios Old-age dependency Child dependency Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
17 Bangladesh and France Have Similar Total Dependency Ratios Bangladesh France Bangladesh France Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
18 But Dependency Is Different in Each Country Old age: 6 Child: 47.4 Bangladesh Old age: 26.2 Child: 28.4 France Child Old age Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
19 In Bangladesh, Total Dependency Has Been Dominated by a Young Population. Dependency Ratios Old-age dependency 20 Child dependency Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
20 In France, Old-Age Dependency Dominates Total Dependency Ratio. Dependency Ratios Old-age dependency Child dependency Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
21 ELDERLY SUPPORT RATIO: The Example of the United States
22 In the U.S., the Number of People Ages 65 and Older Will More Than Double By Number of People Ages 65+ Millions Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
23 By 2050, One in Five Americans Will Be Ages 65 and Older. Percent of U.S. Population in Selected Age Groups: % 80% % % 20% % Under age 18 Ages 18 to 64 Ages 65 and older Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
24 By 2030, There Will Only Be Three Working-Age Adults For Every Person Age 65 or Older. Elderly Support Ratio: Number of persons ages per person ages Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
25 In One in Six U.S. Counties, the Share of the Population Ages 65+ is Already 20 Percent. Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
26 Almost One in Three U.S. Counties Already Has An Elderly Support Ratio of 3 or Less. Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
27 The Future Characteristics of the Older Population Are Important for Policy Decisions. Health status. Employment status. Living arrangements. Kinship networks.
28 Changes in Family Patterns May Result in Less Availability of Family Caregivers in U.S. High rates of divorce. Increasing cohabitation and nonmarital childbearing. Blended families.
29 Entitlement Programs Have Helped to Reduce Poverty Among the Older Population. Percent Living in Poverty % Under age % 15 16% 10 Ages 65 and over 10% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys.
30 Social Security and Medicare Expenditures in U.S. Are Projected to Reach 15% of GDP by Social Security and Medicare Expenditures as a Percent of GDP 10% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Social Security 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 3% 1% Medicare 0% Source: A Summary of the 2009 Annual Social Security and Medicare Trust Fund Reports.
31 The Costs of An Aging Population May Force Difficult Trade-Offs in Spending Priorities. Children will still outnumber the older population through The gap in poverty rates between children and the older population has been increasing. Will escalating costs of Social Security and Medicare force cutbacks in programs that improve the well-being of children?
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