2012 Global Logistics and Trends. Curtis D. Spencer, President IMS Worldwide, Inc.

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1 2012 Global Logistics and Trends Curtis D. Spencer, President IMS Worldwide, Inc.

2 Supply Chain Trends Slow Steaming, here to stay. - Fuel Costs - Environmental Specs - Port Labor Issues - Panama Canal Widening - Use of Inland Ports as import centers - Back-haul, full loads, no empties.

3 Business of Logistics

4 CURRENT PROCESS: Goods Movement Flow Chart: Foreign Manufacturing Center to Chicago, IL Distribution Center via U.S. West Coast Ports Step 1: Origin Factory the Container is Stuffed & Sealed Step 2: Truck Transports Container From Factory to Foreign Port Step 3: Container is Loaded on Ocean Vessel at Foreign Port Step 4: Ocean Carrier Transports Container to U.S. West Coast Port Step 5: Container is Discharged From Vessel at U.S. Port Step 6: Container Loaded on Train at Dock or Drayed to Nearby Terminal for Loading

5 Continued Goods Flow Model: Foreign Port to Chicago, IL via West Coast Ports Step 7: BNSF Intermodal Stack Train Transports Container to Chicago, IL Step 8: Container Unloaded at BNSF Terminal in Chicago, IL Step 9: Container is Moved via Truck from BNSF Terminal to DC in Chicago, IL Step 10: Container Unloaded and Goods Sorted for Retail Store Distribution Step 11: Multiple Trucks Dispatched to Regional Stores or Distribution Centers

6 Supply Chains

7 Big Ship Trends Driven by economy of scale Equipment utilization Competitive survival Must manage supply of vessels vs. demand Rate impacts Panama Canal, but not waiting for that

8 Container Ship Evolution CONTAINER SHIP SIZES AND PORT REQUIREMENTS

9 East Coast Ports: Current Channel Depth, Ship Capacity NY/NJ Source: VPA

10 8,200 TEU Class Vessels Where can they go in the USA East & Gulf in 2011? (Source: MSC) Boston? New York Yes Air draft restrictions Philadelphia? Baltimore Norfolk Yes Yes Wilmington? No turning basin available Charleston Yes Savannah Yes Very draft restricted Jacksonville? Water depth/turning basin Port Everglades Yes Very draft restricted Miami Yes Very draft restricted Mobile? Water depth/turning basin New Orleans Yes Draft and air draft restrictions Houston Yes HIGHLY Draft restricted

11 14,000 TEU Class Vessels Where can they go in the USA East & Gulf in 2011? (Source: MSC) Boston No No turning basin New York No Only global terminal Philadelphia No No turning basin Baltimore Norfolk Yes Yes Wilmington No No turning basin Charleston Yes Savannah? HIGHLY draft restricted / No turning basin / channel width Jacksonville No River / no turning basin Port Everglades No Channel width Miami? Very draft restricted Mobile? Water depth / turning basin New Orleans No Draft and air draft restrictions Houston No Channel width / no turning basin

12 Millions of TEUs U.S. Key Port Growth LA NY/NJ Oakland Hampton Roads Tacoma LB Savannah Houston Seattle Charleston 2 1 * 2011 TEUs annualized based on actual current TEU volumes

13 Panama Canal Canal operating at capacity Limited ship-sizes that can operate, 110 feet wide max 10/22/2006 referendum passed to approve funding new locks to 181 feet wide Impact on USEC and Gulf Ports Completion date 2014 Suez Canal rotations already part of USEC supply chain-where capacity exists

14 `

15

16 PANAMA CANAL VS. SUEZ CANAL Hong Kong, China Charleston Panama Canal Suez Canal Via Panama Canal Distance: 10,612nm, 18 days, 10 Via Suez Canal Distance: 11,945nm, 20 days,

17 EC Ports Will Grow Because: Increasing Eastern Europe/Indian Trade- Via the Suez. Watch out for Pirates! Increasing S. American (Brazil, Chile, etc) GDP Growth Proximity to Major Markets Small increase in Asia-US trade through Panama and Suez routings.

18 WC Ports Will Grow Because: Increasing Asian China Trade (GDP lowered to 9% Growth Rate) Increasing SE Asia Trade, non-china GDP Growth Proximity to quicker/cheaper Intermodal Routings that can penetrate to within 250 miles of East Coast. Small decrease in market share of Chinabased-US trade through Panama and Suez routings.

19 Panama Canal Bottom Line BALANCE In Market Share after 2014 will be the answer. Approx. 52%-48% today, 50%- 50% after IF- Ocean Carriers re-work pricing after Panama Canal Expansion- lowering prices by 30% for all water, compared to LA/LB + Intermodal, AND the RRs do not drop correspondingly you could see 10%-20% Market Share drop from WC to EC. Likelihood of this happening? 1 in 10.

20 Shanghai to North American Ports: Slow Steaming Effects 2000 & From China, it takes about 2 Source: weeks ShipmentLink.com to bring cargo (Evergreen) to the Sailing west Schedules coast and about 4 weeks to bring it in on the east coast. (2000)

21 Shanghai to North American Ports: Slow Steaming Effects 2000 & 2011 Pricing as of Dec 2011 Fuel-$723 $1,200 $1, $2,750 $2, Fuel-$876 From China, it takes about 2 Source: weeks ShipmentLink.com to bring cargo (Evergreen) to the Sailing west Schedules coast and about 4 weeks to bring it in on the east coast. (2000)

22 East Coast-West Coast TEU Cost Line Equilibrium- January 2012 Megapolitans Cascadia +38% Norcal +35% z Equilibrium Line Q Great Lakes Horseshoe +10% Atlantic Seaboard +12% Southland +35% Valley of the Sun +81% Sources: Population, employment, and real estate growth forecasts by Robert Lang and Arthur Nelson of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech and Phil Hopkins of Global Insight; Business 2.0, November 2005 I-35 Corridor +40% Gulf Coast Belt +31% I-85 Corridor +35% Southern Florida +52%

23 Impact on Industrial Real Estate

24 Top Industrial Real Estate U.S. Markets 4 th Quarter 2011 Market Total Market Space Total Vacant Market Space Total Vacancy Rate Total US 11,069,432,000 1,009,971, % Los Angeles 811,511,000 45,032, % Chicago 811,297,000 91,544, % Dallas-Fort Worth 484,236,000 44,835, % Atlanta 346,817,000 50,328, % Houston 302,061,000 21,185, % Phoenix 274,956,000 33,820, % Columbus 268,274,000 27,632, % Memphis 141,573,000 20,031, % Louisville 106,085,000 8,805, % New York 15,095, , % Source: Cassidy Turley, U.S. Industrial Trends Report 4 th Quarter 2011

25 Mega-politans Growth of regions Megapolitans Norcal +35% Cascadia +38% Southland +35% Valley of the Sun +81% Sources: Population, employment, and real estate growth forecasts by Robert Lang and Arthur Nelson of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech and Phil Hopkins of Global Insight; Business 2.0, November 2005 Great Lakes Horseshoe +10% z I-35 Corridor +40% Gulf Coast Belt +31% I-85 Corridor +35% Atlantic Seaboard +12% Southern Florida +52%

26 Population Forecast After the Recession same 25 Years Cascadia +31% Megapolitans Norcal +30% Southland +30% Valley of the Sun +60% Sources: Population, employment, and real estate growth forecasts by Robert Lang and Arthur Nelson of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech and Phil Hopkins of Global Insight; Business 2.0, November 2005 Great Lakes Horseshoe +18% z I-35 Corridor +40% Gulf Coast Belt +45% I-85 Corridor +40% Atlantic Seaboard +18% Southern Florida +42%

27 Prince Rupert Intermodal Routes to Major Inland Ports Vancouver Seattle/ Tacoma Chicago Cent. PA Oakland Kansas City Memphis Columbus Norfolk NY/NJ Los Angeles / Long Beach Dallas/ FW Atlanta Savannah / Charleston Jacksonville Houston Lazaro Cardenas Mexico City

28 Competition for Inland Destination, the Battleground Circle Represents over 20 Million TEUs

29 Knowing Where the Containers are Coming into the Ports Won t Help Us.. Until we know where they are going to STOP! The real value prop in all of this logistics business, is in knowing where the goods will get off the global conveyor belt and be put into a BUILDING at a port or inland port!

30 HOPE FOR SMALLER REGIONS/RURAL AREAS

31 Site Selection Fundamentals INCENTIVES! (FTZ, LABOR, LAND) Labor Market Dynamics Transportation Services Entitlement Timing Building Availability/Costs Overall Operating Costs Community Will Competing communities, influence, incentives Alignment of messages

32 E-Commerce Key Criteria for Site Selectors Avoidance of Nexus Tax Proximity to major markets Inexpensive land Ample seasonal/surge labor pool Reasonable proximity/access to interstates Local incentives Tax breaks FTZ

33

34 QUESTIONS? Thank You Curtis D. Spencer President & CEO IMS Worldwide, Inc.

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