How To Improve Transporta0On Resilience

Transcription

1 Transportation Resilience, planning land use and mobility management for unpredictable events Wawira Njoka Briefing paper contribu0ng to Urban Resilience : what can Urban Governance contribute? superintended by Michaela Hordijk, Isa Baud Emmanuel Raoult 25/03/ page 1

2 Introduction Clues of change : a connected economy and car dependency In our contemporary society based on informa0on and communica0on technologies (ICT), individuals are s0ll moving more and more, and transporta0on has become a great part of our lives, especially as the number of megaci0es increases. The globalisa0on of the economy, especially outsourcing or goods exporta0ons, shows how companies rely on the transporta0on system globally but also locally. People in the ci0es are coming from distant places, onen far suburbs, to work or to use recrea0onal facili0es. The lack of proper transporta0on services in these giant ci0es in turn makes urban areas vulnerable to shocks in the system, reducing the city s resilience. The transporta0on system is then a basic infrastructure for a dynamic city and has to be protected from hazards like riots, strikes, network accident, oil shortage, earthquake, storms or floods. Due to the past 50 years of Transportation Resilience definition from articles planning, the car dependency is threatening the transporta0on system resilience by increasing isola0on and vulnerability of people not owning a car and by crea0ng huge conges0on, which has proved to be dangerous during the Rita hurricane for example. Delhi (India) is inves0ng in an electric rail system which will enable 60% of the city to be within 15 minutes walking distance from a sta0on (Newman, 2009), to enhance accessibility. This shows the shin in transporta0on policies in order to promote its resilience by improving the public transport, road usages and eventually reducing car reliance. This would also reduce the energy dependence in terms of fossil fuel. Doing so, the environmental footprint of the system will decrease and help reduce vulnerability to climate change hazards at a global scale. Foster says that the Resilience in an urban transport context could be described as the capacity to absorb shocks gracefully (Foster, 1993). From this cita0on and according to Bertolini, we will understand Transporta0on Resilience as resilience (capacity to absorb shocks) and adaptability (capacity of change, facing the unpredictable even). According to Murray Tuite s ar0cle (Murray Tuite, 2006), the transporta0on resilience can be understood through ten dimensions: Redundancy : mul0ple components serve the same func0on Diversity: components are func0onally different example: mul0plicity of road use (Newman,2009) Efficiency : input/output ra0o op0misa0on Autonomous components: ability to operate separately Strength : ability to withstand an event Collabora0on : informa0on and resources shared among components Adaptability: flexible system, capable of learning from past experiences Mobility : reach a chosen des0na0on with an acceptable level of service Safety : expose less users to hazards Ability to recover quickly: level of service restored quickly 25/03/ page 2

3 Another ar0cle links the transport resilience to our inability to predict future and addi0onally defines it by these fields (Online TDM Encyclopaedia, 2008) : The connec0vity of the system Catering for vulnerable people Evalua0on, feedback and early detec0on Timeliness Improvising resource management, priori0zing mobility This mobility is underlined as seen as the community s overall resilience and is then a key element of transporta0on resilience. Addi0onally, when evalua0ng transport resilience several levels could be iden0fied: Individual level: everyday day decisions we make on the mode of transport to use. Community : basic accessibility and choices of transport to members of a community Infrastructure design : leaving open possibili0es for future transport alterna0ves Economic level: how are funds priori0sed and for what purpose. Strategic level: transporta0on system can meet long term economic, social and environmental goals under a wide range of unpredictable future condi0ons. This last strategic level is developed in the ar0cle about Amsterdam (Bertolini, 2005) the author characterises an urban transport system as evolu0onary and complex as it alternates quan0ta0ve and qualita0ve changes, it is path dependent, it can have unpredictable outcomes during change phases even if policies can strongly influence them. Resilience and adaptability have then to be increased to face this unpredictable part, by proposing a specific transporta0on network shape, land use regula0on or mobility management measures. *** This paper will first analyze Transporta0on Resilience from long term and short term point of view. This will give us an overview. Using some key case studies, issues and outcomes of transporta0on resilience in urban areas will be highlighted. In the second part, we will propose a s et o f m e a s u re s to e n h a n c e t h e Transporta0on Resilience by Decision Making guidelines and evalua0ng forecas0ng tools. 25/03/ page 3

4 Analysis Long term resilience Due to rising social resistance and financial and fiscal constraints on infrastructure expansion, the predict and provide approach is no longer an op0on for transporta0on systems. These uncertain0es could be understood as risks, structural uncertain;es or unknowables (Bertolini, 2005). These 2 last uncertain0es become predominant in the long term, as the system increases in complexity. Because of these unpredictable parameters, it is virtually impossible to forecast correctly changes that will occur in the transporta0on field within 20 years. However, Land Use and Transport Interac0on (LUTI) models and Transporta0on Planning Models (TPM) will be discussed later as forecas0ng solu0ons to help decisions makers. Bertolini proposes the evolu;onary approach t o h e l p c r e a t e m e t h o d s fo r u r b a n transporta0on planning to improve resilience. Let s review why the transporta0on system is an evolu0onary system and then how resilience policies are important to design a beier transporta0on system. An evolu0onary approach to resilience recognizes the complexity of social systems and their interdependency. The evolu0onary economics theory is then quite interes0ng here, as firms use both a rou;ne, that is redundant organiza0on, and a research of alterna;ve methods to create or sell new products and services. The selec;on environment is supposed to choose the most efficient solu0on, rou0ne or alterna0ve. This could be seen as analogue to a resilient system, which consists in func0oning in the face of changes, and to adaptability, which defines the system's capacity to change itself on its own. Because of this, urban transporta0on policies need to focus on enhancing the resilience and the adaptability of the system (Bertolini, 2005). The author illustrates these hypothesis by analysing the post war era in Amsterdam. The following are the three main features of these hypothesis. Quantitative change period and transition qualitative period The qualita0ve period is linked to the nature of the development and not to its amount. These transi0ons can have different origins: Social demographic transi0ons: the decline then rise of the popula0on in Amsterdam city centre. Economic transi0on : from an industry economy to a services based economy Land use policy transi0on : planning of the historic centre, development failure of a misplaced Central Business Centre, suburbs growth and appari0on of new city centers Transport transi0on : from a motor way policy to accessible local alterna0ves Path dependency Social resistance and market preferences can help preserving historical centers or building new or renewed urban areas. Several land reserva0ons since the 1900's lead to new transporta0on system alterna0ves in Amsterdam. This new transports impacted the global urban form. Finally, a Na0onal infrastructure plan also influenced the transporta0on planning in this city. This different elements show the historical background and local culture and habits are 25/03/ page 4

5 highly responsible of the transporta0on present and future status. Unpredictability The youth community which fought for the conserva0on of the historic urban centre in the 1960's and economic turbulence eras helped planners to propose qualita0ve changes in Amsterdam. The conserva0on of the historical centre finally drove the emergence of tourism and leisure economy, to the crea0on of new urban development areas leading to new city centers. These great outcomes from the past events were quite unpredictable at the 0me things were planned. *** Planners contributed to this change in an other way: by freezing the main urban frame, they have given the real estate market the freedom of reshaping it at the micro level. This shows how we can imply deep changes without heavy infra structural changes. However, some outcomes are s0ll partly unpredictable and highlight the need of resilience and adaptability policies. The power of policy makers The role of planners and relevant technical staff in urban transport planning is important. The varia0on in private transport and fuel usage of 84 ci0es studied was largely due to physical planning decisions made by those ci0es (Peter Newman, 2009). Planners ability to facilitate resilience goals should be used and improved. There needs to be a shin in the percep0on of their role from being a facility developer s to a community developer s (Peter Newman, 2009). This could facilitate the par0cipa0on of the Case study : transporta0on planning processes in the post war Amsterdam The major turn in transporta0on planning is located between 1970 s and the 1990 s. ANer the oil crisis, Amsterdam is experiencing a lost of 20% of its popula0on. At the same moment, a growing suburbaniza0on process arise and the highway na0onal plan is incremented. Locally, a complex debate appeared concerning the underground railway and urban highways projects. This unpredictable opposi0on for the preserva0on of the historical centre lead the urban transporta0on planners to redesign their projects. In 1975, a local circula0on plan set the first elements of transporta0on resilience, like coarsening the network and building bicycle lanes. The outcomes of this new transport structure plan, like a raise of bike use and tourism economy, came much later. During this era of Changes in the built-up area and the infrastructure in the Amsterdam region, transi0on to a services economy, despite planners effort to move the offices at the IJ banks, these were sepng up in the south of the city, next to the airport. The unexpected outcome was the crea0on of a polycentric city, with many centre areas. However, the planners policy on land use also helped in building transporta0on resilience as it favored micro city renewal and did not disturb much the city s transporta0on system. 25/03/ page 5

6 community in transport planning in the early stages a project. Planners and policy makers can benefit from this informa0on enabling them to plan from par0cular problems, for instance isolated areas, while keeping their general plan in focus. Furthermore, the urban community will have more ownership of the environment they live in and this could help in future maintenance of the services provided. Addi0onally, urban community par0cipa0on has the possibility of fostering cohesion amongst individuals in the urban area. None cohesive communi0es are a vulnerability to the urban area and are prone to violence and internal wars amongst its members. The density and form of the urban area needs to be considered when planning for future transports. High density areas are easier to plan mobility around public transport, pedestrian and cycling paths. This is also feasible for low density areas focused along corridors. However, for low density areas without this quality (focused along corridors) public transport cannot compete with private cars as a means of mobility (Peter Newman, 2009). The form of the urban area needs to be seen as a public space (Peter Newman, 2009) with streets as the most social part. Streets are where most face to face contact in urban areas takes place. This is a hint that planners need to Short term resilience As men0oned previously, the term of risk has to be linked to Short Term Resilience. Transport Demand Management (TDM encyclopaedia, 2008) is an interes0ng tool to assess the transport planning effects on short term resilience. Using this tool transport can be evaluated at several levels. The individual level TDM accesses the everyday day decisions urbani0es make on the mode of transport to use or if they have access to transport to choose from. The cri0cal choice take a border picture when planning for transport. There is a tendency for planning to be road focused mostly designing for road capacity while beau0fica0on (incorpora0on of tree plan0ng), aesthe0cs and inclusions of streets on the periphery is given to other bodies. Urban transport policy needs to move from car planning to people planning. The concept of people mobility is important. Here planners and policy makers alike could look at the how to move people faster and safer from des0na0on to des0na0on. This would bring the importance of public transport into focus; the example of Delhi given earlier. Excluded or isolated urban areas area a source of vulnerabili0es for the city. In 0me of disaster such as the Hurricane Katrina there were logis0cal problems when trying to evacuate people in these areas. In the case of hurricane Rita evacua0on was made worse by the car dependence of the city. Since most people are using private transport, public transport is len to service a few who tend to live on the isolated areas of the city and thus it makes it hard for to jus0fy the public service, from and economic view point. As a result the transport networks in these areas were not well developed which led to the logis0cal problems of evacua0on. Apart from providing good transport, crea0ng accessibility to address vulnerable people is another cri0cal factor for considera0on. here is between public and private transport and the op0ons within the variety for public services provided. When making a decision between private and public transport individuals look to the accessibility, the /me it takes to use public means, as opposed to private transport, and the quality of the public service. The community level refers to the basic accessibility of transport to members of a community, the transporta0on choices they 25/03/ page 6

7 have and how it affects their lives and the effect of their collec/ve decisions. The design level evaluates if the urban design meets current needs leaving enough manoeuvrability for future designs. The strategic level of the transporta0on system is assessed on its poten0al in mee0ng longterm economic, social and environmental goals under a wide range of unpredictable future condi0ons or risks. Lastly, the economic level looks at priori0sa0on and purpose of funds dedicated to transport. The TDM concept emphasises the need to generalise risk in order to find categories of vulnerabili0es in the system as done above. An important aspect of TDM is con/ngencybased planning. It is a planning process that develops solu0ons on a needs basis and Case study Katrina and Rita Katrina hit the Gulf Coast August 29 th 2005, which lead to infrastructure damage, flooding, civil disorder, fires, toxic chemical dispersion, disease risk and thousands of people isolated without food or medical care. The evacua0on plan mainly focused on users with motor vehicles. The plan involved using all lanes on major highways to accommodate outbound vehicle traffic. This was well thought out and published (Wolshon, 2002). Although many motorists were able to flee the city, conges0on resulted in very slow traffic speeds and some cars run out of fuel or developed mechanical problems. However no effec0ve plan was made for those who had no cars and were public transport dependent or in isolated areas. The system was based on car dependence and thus only planed for car mobility. Of the 1.4 million people in the highthreat areas, it was assumed only approximately 6 0 % o f t h e popula0on will want or be able to leave the city. T h e r e a s o n s were numerous, h o w e v e r t h e primary reason enables beier change over 0me in response to future needs. The steps in evalua0ng transport resilience using this method include; Define the system; here planners or policy makers can define what type of density the urban area is and from the device suitable approaches to service provision. Next iden0fy cri0cal func0ons of the transport system such as who it is catering for. The vulnerabili0es of the urban transport are also assessed. These may be unique for each urban locus while others as global or regional in nature. Finally, ways to increase resilience and security are iden0fied aner evalua0ng the informa0on in the previous steps. was due to lack of transporta0on and unwillingness to leave homes and property and lack outbound roadway capacity. This showed the officials and planners are not in touch with the community they serve and their needs. It would be interes0ng to note the changes that the city will make to correct this serious laps in planning for the vulnerable and needy. Hurricane Rita hit the Coast September 24 th 2005 and had the opposite problem. Most residents of Huston fled this danger zones using their own cars. This led to a massive conges0on problem. The city planners did not make use of the high occupancyvehicle lanes and inbound lanes of highways un0l very late. Harris County emergency management coordinator Frank E. Gu0errez explained their evacua0on models envisioned 0.8 to 1.2 million people but more than 2.5 million fled Rita. This is only a small part of what can go wrong when a city is not planned for every ci0zen to face possible threats a n d l a c k o f accoun0ng for the vulnerable people. 25/03/ page 7

8 Resilience for transporta0on is basically defined as the capacity to adapt to hazard in order to maintain an acceptable level of service. The TDM focuses on 4 of the 10 dimensions proposed to define Transporta0on Resilience: mobility safety adaptability ability to recover quickly Murray Tuite s ar0cle proposes to measure resilience and these 4 fields through the impact of traffic assignment. The author reviews measurements of resilience, especially for infrastructures like water, communica0ons or electricity grid. Concerning transporta0on resilience Solutions quan0fica0on, the ar0cle uses travel 0me losses and capacity varia0ons. The evalua0on of the resilience quality is based on the comparison of two scenarios : the System Op0mum, which minimizes travel 0me for all vehicles, and the User Equilibrium, which minimize travel 0me for individuals. This forecast model is based on the graph theory, and assigns capaci0es and speed limits parameters as arc parameters and vehicle flows to nodes (see page 9 of this ar0cle). However, the final results table does not show an advantage for one or an other scenario when lis0ng the evalua0on criterions. This could show then the importance of overall planning versus local traffic assignments to increase transporta0on resilience. Proposing land use policy, mobility management and community actions Here are some ideas that policy makers and planners can do to increase their resilience; Land use policy The popula0on density of the urban area should be a cri0cal factor in designing transporta0on systems. Mobility Management Transit transporta0on systems especially in high density ci0es should be addressed. This can prove very useful in 0mes of disasters where mass people mobility from areas of disaster is needed. Timeliness and capacity of public transport is another cri0cal factor that can influence the decisions individuals make when choosing between public and private transport. The basic accessibility and quality of the public transport should be considered in planning. Vulnerable and disabled people need to be included. They tend to be a minority in the popula0on who are not catered for in the design and accessibility of public transport. Community planning Planners need to be familiar with needs of the people they are providing the service for. Community outreach programmes can play a vital role here. Planners and policy makers need to listen to the people they are planning for. Strategic Planning Access to informa0on and how it is communicated from planners to the urban inhabitants is vital especially in 0mes of disaster. Development of effec0ve ways of m a i n t a i n i n g i n f o r m a 0 o n a n d communica0on systems amongst the various actors (Litman, 2006). Cross train staff to perform cri0cal 25/03/ page 8

9 management and repair services (Litman, 2006). Op0miza0on as a goal of transport planning should not overcome the need for flexibility and adap0ve capacity of the system. Seeking op0miza0on might Evaluate and forecast In order to decide if a policy decision made above is good, planners have at their disposal some quan0ta0ve measures and forecas0ng tools. These help the policy maker but should not be taken as an exact truth or means to an end. Quan0ta0ve surveys can be done but Resilience issues need to be qualita0ve. Measures As shown in one ar0cle [note : TDM ar0cle], one of the easiest way to measure resilience is to s0ck a measurement to each dimension which characterises the transporta0on resilience : Diversity : survey how many kilometres of road are public space share or dedicated to cars, bikes, trains, pedestrians... redundancy and connec0vity : measure the quality and capacity and the numbers of road to link the major city spots. strength : meet label requirements about extreme condi0ons for facili0es adaptability : assess the system s ability to iden0fy and forecast problems (see Morlok and Chang, 2004) mobility : trip 0me, level of service (comfort, clear informa0on...) safety : map, using Geographical Informa0on System (GIS), risk areas (floods, classified industrial facility...) ability to recover quickly : stocks of buses, of fuel ; quality of technical procedures and staff availability social accessibility warranted : actually erode future resilience : technology op0misa0on could be dangerous as technology could become obsolete. Land use op0misa0on does n o t l e a v e r o o m f o r a n y n e w transporta0on alterna0ves. characterise the performance of the local or state program which has to insure an equal access to resilient networks evaluate the set of means to communicate on long and short term basis with users. Test the relevance of priori0sing methods for transporta0on system resources As a star0ng point for urban planners, an example of transporta0on indicators can be found at using the 2020 Explorer tool. Forecasting transportation resilience programs For short term concerns, resilience parameters could be implemented into a traffic genera0on model, as shown in the Murray Tuite ar0cle. transportationʼs resilience evaluation : forecasting evacuation of a flooded area using a graph model This can help to map resilience around the city. This models are based on the graphs theory and resilience could be then understood as a set of different constraints on arcs or nodes. This will not be an exact, precise picture of what could happen but can help iden0fying poten0al hot spots and conges0on roads. 25/03/ page 9

10 Then forecas0ng long term resilience measures is much more difficult, as LUTI models men0oned by Luca Bertolini illustrate. These models have to get the social phenomena and very complex rela0ons. The basic func0oning scheme of the UrbanSim sonware shows this difficulty to catch long term outcomes... UrbanSim LUTI model components and data flow Conclusion and ideas Resilience is a condi0on for adaptability. These two elements compose the Transporta0on Resilience. This kind of resilience relies on the morphology of the transport system frame (radial/tangent, road/rail) which has to move from monocentric to polycentric city changes. Incremental models (history of the city had influenced the planning) and ra0onal models (planning by forecas0ng what decision imply as outcomes) are essen0al issues to be addressed by planners. The next goal for planners who want to increase resilience would be to capture the transi0on process and integrate it to forecast models. According to Christensen (Christensen, 1985), this involves a balance between the over looked goals and the means or technologies to achieve them. Then the system can gain resilience by robust measures and adaptability by keeping op0ons opened, especially for technology solu0ons. However, risk taking (e.g. introducing a new technology) could be seen as a leadership ac0on (From the poli0cal point of view) but should be s0ll kept only as a policy experiment. Following the spirit of the Bruntland's sustainability report, the ques0on is how can we design land use and transport policies which keep open mobility choices for next genera0ons? (Bertolini, 2005). Currently, Indian Tata company is launching the cheap car called Nano in Mumbai (BBB news, 23/03/2009). The divergent policies about mobility are highlighted here in India : the introduc0on of the Nano aims to increase overall car ownership in already crowded ci0es while planners are promo0ng mass transit in Delhi. Planners and the private sector should work together to meet the long term urban communi0es well being... and resilience. 25/03/ page 10

11 References BBC news, Is the Nano good for India?, (march 23, 2009), hip://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/ thread.jspa?forumid=6250&edi0on=2&il= Edward K. Morlok, David J. Chang (march 2004) Measuring capacity flexibility of a transporta0on system, Elsevier : Transporta0on Research Part A 38 (2004) K S Christensen, 1985, ``Coping with uncertainty in planning'' Journal of the American Planning Associa0on Pamela M. Murray Tuite (2006) A COMPARISON OF TRANSPORTATION NETWORK RESILIENCE UNDER SIMULATED SYSTEM OPTIMUM AND USER EQUILIBRIUM CONDITIONS, page 1398, Abstract paragraph one line Peter Newman (March 12 th 2009) Island press; Solu0ons that inspire change: eco compass blog, Peter Newman s Resilient Ci0es: The Sustainable Transport City [online] Available at: hip:// blog.islandpress.org/325/peter newmans resilient ci0es the sustainable transport city [Accessed 20 March 2009] Todd Litman (April 13 th 2006) Lessons From Katrina and Rita: What Major Disasters Can Teach Transporta0on Planners [Online] Available at: hip:// [Accessed 19 March 2009] Victoria transport policy ins/tute (Updated 22 July 2008), Online TDM Encyclopaedia, Evalua0ng Transporta0on Resilience; Evalua0ng the Transporta0on System s Ability to Accommodate Diverse, Variable and Unexpected Demands with Minimal Risk [online] Available at: hip:// tdm/tdm88.htm [Accessed 23 March 2009] 25/03/ page 11