Can Government-Sponsored Museum Exhibitions Influence Art Market? An Empirical Investigation in Art Auction Market
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1 Can Government-Sponsored Museum Exhbtons Influence Art Market? An Emprcal Investgaton n Art Aucton Market Yu-Hs Lu (Adjunct Assstant Professor, Natonal Sun Yat-Sen Unversty) * Ch-Jung Lu (Master student, Natonal Sun Yat-Sen Unversty) Chen-Yuan Sher (Assstant Professor, Natonal Sun Yat-Sen Unversty) Abstract Whether government-sponsored museums can nfluence art market s an emprcal queston. Ths paper nvestgates the relatonshp between government-sponsored museum exhbtons and aucton prce of the artworks. We focus on the artsts who exhbted on the Tape Fne Art Museum (TFAM) and nvestgate whether the exhbtons at TFAM nfluence the hammer prces of ther artwork n the followng auctons. We lnk the TFAM exhbton data from 2000 to 2015 to the global aucton data at dated from 2000 to The Hedonc model and Tobt model are employed to test the relatonshp between hammer prce and exhbtons. The results mply that museum exhbtons do not have drect nfluences on art aucton prce. However, we fnd evdence of an ndrect certfcaton effect of TFAM exhbtons. Exhbtons do not have sgnfcance on the hammer prce, but the nteracton terms between exhbton and other prcng factors are sgnfcant. Once an artst has been certfed by museum exhbtons, hs/her artwork wll be evaluated by the common ndustry practce such as the prcng factors. These results also support the clam that government-sponsored museum exhbtons are leadng ndcators to aucton market performance. Keywords: Art auctons, museum exhbton, art prce, hammer prce, credence good certfcaton * Correspondence to: Yu-Hs Lu, laches2@gmal.com. 1
2 1. Introducton and Theory Base Ths paper nvestgates the relatonshp between government-sponsored museum exhbtons and art aucton market. Government nterventon s common n the cultural sectors. As a form of subsdy, government-sponsored museums can promote a certan type of art by selectng or screenng artsts nto ther exhbtons. However, whether the exhbtons n government-sponsored museums have nfluence n art market s an emprcal queston watng to be nvestgated. There are several theores to explan the role of museums n the art market. Museums can be vewed as thrd-party certfcaton nsttutons whch provde professonal judgments on art. Art s an example of credence goods and consumers are uncertan about product qualty before and even after consumptons. Moreover, there could be serous nformaton asymmetry problems between buyers and sellers. To releve the problems of uncertanty and nformaton asymmetry, buyers may seek certfcatons from museums. Artsts who are selected nto the museum exhbtons can be vewed as certfed, hence ther art pece have greater chance to sell out at a hgher hammer prce. Another theory emphaszes the stckness of art taste. Art s also an example of ratonal-addcted goods. The law of dmnshng margnal utlty may not apply to addtonal goods; when consumers consume more addtonal goods, they enjoy the goods more and ther margnal utlty ncreases. We need tme and product experence to cultvate a taste of art. Once a taste s bult, consumers may stck to the taste and enjoy a certan type of art. As relable thrd-party nsttutons, museums may lead consumers to get addcted to a certan type of art by promotng partcular artsts n ther regular exhbtons. In ths sense, we are supposed to overserve a postve relatonshp between exhbtons frequences and art aucton prce for some gven art type. However, an alternatve hypothess suggests that art aucton market partcpants are professonals, or at least enthusastc amateurs. Most of the art consumers have nvested n knowledge and cultural captal; they have acqured certan taste. In ths sense, these consumers may not need certfcaton from museums and the market s 2
3 more lkely to be the leader to the publc sectors. Whether the market or the government takes the lead n art market s an nterestng emprcal queston. 2. Data and Methodology To nvestgate how government-sponsored museum exhbtons nfluence art aucton market, we test whether the artsts who have exhbted n Tape Fne Art Museum are more lkely to have ther artwork sold out at a hgher hammer prce. Tape Fne Art Museum was the frst museum n Tawan bult for contemporary art exhbtons. It s fully sponsored by both central and local government, though t also receves prvate donatons n some specfc projects. It curates expostons not for local artsts but also for nternatonal artsts. Tape Bennal held at TFAM has become an mportant event n Asa art scene. It s one of the mportant contemporary art museums n Asa. We focus on all the Tawanese and Chnese artsts who once exhbted at TFAM from 2000 to We then trace the performance of ther art peces n the global aucton market. The chronologcal order of exhbton and aucton s carefully dentfed; only the exhbtons BEFORE an artst frstly came to the aucton market s counted. We acqure ther global aucton data comes from dated from 2000 to The data set has 22,123 aucton observatons n total, whle 8,585 observatons belong to the artsts who have exhbted n Tape Fne Art Museum from 2000 to The control varables nclude aucton house locaton, sze of the aucton house, lot, reserve prce, lot, year of creaton, the medum and sze of the art pece, the artst-specfc characterstc varables and so-on. Servng as a prce ndex (p t ), the tme dummes are also ncluded to control for the year of aucton. The descrptve statstcs s lsted n Table 1. We use both Hedonc model and Tobt model to nvestgate the relatonshp between hammer prce and the ndependent varables. However, for those unclosed auctons, the hammer prces of the tems are mssng. The Hedonc regresson drops 3
4 all the observatons of unclosed auctons, whle the Tobt model treats the unclosed auctons as censored data. The results of both models wll present n the followng sectons. The Hedonc model s as follows: pt x pt t where p s the fxed component of the prce that reflects the artwork qualty and p t reflects the ndex of aggregate movements n prces. It captures both the unobservable tme effects and the artwork-specfc effects on prce. The Truncated Tobt model s as follows: f(y x ) = 1 σ φ(c) 1 Φ(c) where y cannot be observed when y < a and c= x β y. The frst moment condton σ shows that E[y * y > a] = μ* + σλ(α). It captures the aucton market fact that y, the hammer prce, s mssng for many observatons. 3. Results and Implcatons Both the results of Hedonc model and Tobt model show that varables of TFAM exhbtons are not sgnfcant to aucton prce. Table 2 presents the results of the two models. How many tmes the artst has been selected to exhbton s not sgnfcant ether. The sze and the area of art pece, whch are usually consdered to be basc prcng factors, are not sgnfcant ether. However, the sgnfcant nteracton term ndcates that TFAM exhbton may have ndrect nfluence on the hammer prce. The nteracton term between the artwork sze/area and whether the artsts exhbted s postvely sgnfcant to hammer prce n both the models. The sze and the area of the art pece are usually consdered to be mportant basc factors to art prcng n common ndustry practce. Here s an Interestng mplcaton of ths result: only after an artst s certfed, hs 4
5 artwork wll be evaluated under the ndustry common practce. In contrast, f the artst has not been certfed by museum exhbton, there s no market consensus on hs artworks. To conclude, museum exhbton can be vewed as a certfcaton agency, but ts nfluence s lmted. The frequency and the tmes of an artst beng selected to the exhbtons are also mportant varables. In Table 2, How many tmes the artst has been selected to exhbton s nsgnfcant n all models. The nteracton term between How many tmes the artst has been selected to exhbton and the other prcng factors are also nsgnfcant. No matter an artst s certfed or not, the exhbton frequences and tmes are nsgnfcant to the hammer prces of hs/her artworks. Ths result does not support the hypothess of ratonal addcton. To conclude, we fnd evdence of an ndrect certfcaton effect of exhbtons n a government-sponsored museum. Ths research s one of the poneer research whch provdes emprcal evdence on the nfluence of museums on the art aucton market. These results support the clam that government-sponsored museum exhbtons may serve as a certfcaton nsttuton and has nfluence n art market. The result also ndcates that that government-sponsored museum exhbton can be a leadng ndcator to aucton market performance, yet the cause and causaton relatonshp needs to be nvestgated further. The mssng data problem stll needs to be solved. Those mssng data belong to unclosed transactons. The characterstcs of the unclosed auctons need to be nvestgated further. 5
6 Table 1 The Descrptve Statstcs of the Data Set Varable n mean s.d. mn max Born Year Lot Creaton Year Area Volume The Lower bound of the Estmated Prce The Upper bound of the Estmated Prce Aucton Year Hammer Prce
7 Table 2 The Results Dependent Varable Hedonc model Tobt model Coeffcents s.d. Coeffcents s.d Lot -0.8 (0.7) -1.6 (0.78)** Creaton Year (120.52)** (126.51) Ol Pantng ( )*** ( )*** Wash Pantng ( )*** ( )** Prnt ( )*** ( ) Statue ( ) ( )* Area 0.18 (0.34) 0.65 (0.35)* Volume 0.01 (0.01) The Lower Bond of Estmaton The Upper Bond of Estmaton (0.56) (0.02)** 0.61 (0.41) 0.49 (0.02)*** Aucton House ( ) ( ) Aucton Place(Tawan) ( ) ( )*** Aucton Place (Chna) ( ) ( )*** Exhbton Tmes ( ) ( ) Whether the Artst had exhbtons at TMAM The Interacton Term Between Area and Whether the Artst Exhbted The Interacton Term Between Area and Whether the Artst Exhbted ( ) ( ) 1.28 (0.4)*** 1.43 (0.41)*** ( )** ( )*** 7
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