NASD Summer Conference North American Shale Supply and Demand Trends
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1 NASD Summer Conference North American Shale Supply and Demand Trends Charles Nevle, Manager Energy Analysis June 7, Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved.
2 Who is Bentek? Bentek employs over 40 fundamental analysts backed by robust IT resources 12 product lines Consulting division 400+ customers Founded in 1985 Denver, Colorado, USA Fully integrating into Platts (products, staff) Global support through Platts sales, marketing and operations 2
3 What Bentek Studies North America: Europe: Globally: Natural gas, crude oil, LNG, NGLs, power and infrastructure Natural gas, LNG, power and infrastructure LNG and infrastructure 3
4 Ket Takeaways The shale boom for natural gas, NGL s and oil continues Power Generation and Industrial Demand gain market LNG creates an outlet for growing U.S. supply of gas Mexican gas demand continues to grow NGL growth requires significant infrastructure development Crude oil production growth pushes out imports Significant investment in new infrastructure required 4
5 Big Ticket Infrastructure Growth Natural Gas Pipelines Power Plants Processing Plants LNG Export Terminals GTL Plants NGL s & Petrochem Pipelines/Rail Fractionators Steam Crackers, PDH Units Export Terminals Production Growth Natural Gas 25% NGL s 71% Oil 49% Oil Pipelines/Rail Condensate Splitters Rail Refined Product Export Terminals 5
6 $/MMBtu Equivalent Shale Has Created Opportunity for Investment $30.00 $30.00 $25.00 $25.00 $20.00 $20.00 $15.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 Value Gap $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 $0.00 CAPP WTI HH MB NGL Brent Source: ICE, EIA as of 4/17/13 6
7 Natural Gas Trends 7
8 Bcf/d Long Term Holds More of the Same Supply Demand Exports Changes in Bcf/d from 2012 to
9 Bcf/d Gas Production Growth Driven by Shale Plays in Texas & Northeast Markets Production is expected to rise over 16 Bcf/d, or 25%, between 2012 and The Northeast and Texas lead the growth (7.9 and 5.1 Bcf/d). Drive to NGLs and Oil heavy areas are driving the geography of gas production. NE SE TX MCP MCM ROX SW 9
10 Bcf/d Power Gen and LNG Exports Lead Demand Growth in U.S. Over Next 5 Years Demand Growth Bcf/d Type 2.9 Power Gen 3.1 Res/Com 2.0 Industrial 0.2 Pipe Loss 4.1 LNG Exports 2.1 Exports to Mexico 14.3 Total 0 RES/COM INDUSTRIAL PIPE LOSS POWER Exports to Mexico LNG EXPORTS 10
11 Evolution of Power Sector Development By Region Through 2018 In US, nearly 14 GW of new gas under construction, in the face of 28 GW of coal retirements. 14 GW at 50% Utilization and 7.5 Heat Rate = 1.26 Bcf/d of new gas demand. Source: BENTEK North American Power Plant Databank
12 US Industry Expansion U.S. Industrial Sector Projects Regional Demand Region Chemical Industrial Metals Petroleum Total Projects Estimated Demand (MMcf/d) Southeast 1, , ,405 Midcon Market 1, ,158 Northeast Texas Midcon Producing Rockies Southwest Pacific Northwest To be determined Total U.S ,913 Demand (MMcf/d) by sector 2, ,682 Projects from December 2012 through year-end 2018 Source: US Industrial Demand Tracker 12
13 Big Business: Gas-To-Liquids U.S. Gas-to-liquids Projects Project Owner Location Region Estimated Demand In-service (MMcf/d) Calumet GTL Calumet Specialty Products Karns City (PA) Northeast Clean Energy Center Marcellus GTL Duncansville (PA) Northeast Mississippi Liquids Project EmberClear GTL Natchez (MS) Southeast Pennsylvania Liquids Project EmberClear GTL Pottsville (LA) Northeast G2X Energy / EMRE G2X Energy Lake Charles (LA) Southeast Westlake GTL Sasol Westlake (LA) Southeast Gulf Coast GTL Royal Dutch Shell Louisiana Southeast 1, TBD Carbon Sciences TBD Southwest n/a n/a Total U.S. 2,628 With a GTL project, 10 Mcf of natural gas typically equals 1 barrel of product. Source: US Industrial Project Tracker 13
14 Bc/d U.S. Shifts To Net Exporter in % U.S. Supply/Demand Balance 4% 2% 1% Dry Production US Production Forecast US Demand US Demand Forecast Source: BENTEK Cell Cast 14
15 North American Exports: Base Case Forecast HN DC LNG Kitimat LNG LNG Canada Canadian Exports: DC LNG 0.25 Bcf/d (1.8 mtpa) Kitimat LNG 1.4 Bcf/d (10 mtpa) LNG Canada (Phase 1 ) Bcf/d (12 mpta) Gulf Coast Export Terminals: Freeport LNG 1.76 Bcf/d (13.2 mtpa) Lake Charles 2 Bcf/d (15 mtpa) Sabine Pass 2.4 Bcf/d (18 mtpa) Cameron 1.6 Bcf/d (12 mtpa) North East Exports: Cove Point 0.75 Bcf/d (5.6 mtpa) Lake Charles Cove Pt. South East Exports: Elba Island FLNG 0.5 Bcf/d ( 4mtpa) Freeport Elba Island Existing Import + Proposed Export Proposed Export Cameron Sabine Pass Source: BENTEK
16 Mexican Demand Driven By Power Is Growing P. Libertad 620 MW (2014) Guaymas I (2015) 108 MW CC Guaymas II (2017) 747 MW CC Guaymas III (2018) 747 MW Topolobampo I (2016) 320 MW CC Topolobampo II (2016) 700 MW CC Topolobampo III (2017) 700 MW Mazatlan (2016) 300 MW CC Norte II (2013) 459 MW CC Norte III (2015) 954 MW CC Norte IV (2019) 918 MW CC Norte V (2022) 944 MW CC Mazatlan (2021) 867 MW Aqua Prieta II (2013) 463 MW Export Pipeline Expansions: 1. El Paso Wilcox Lateral: 185 MMcf/d, Apr CC Norte VI (2025) 918 MW 2. El Paso Norte Crossing: 366 MMcf/d, Aug El Paso Samalayuca: 237 MMcf/d, Aug Kinder Morgan Mier Monterrey: 275 MMcf/d, Apr TETCO Reynosa: 300 MMcf/d, June 2014 Mexican Power Expansion ,405 MW Incremental Export Capacity 2.5 Bcf/d by 80%; 4, MMcf/d heat rate Total Export Capacity by 2015: 9,598 MMcf/d 6. El Paso Sierrita: MMcf/d, Oct Net Midstream Frontera: 2,100 MMcf/d, Nov Source: Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE) 16
17 Bcf/d Exports to Mexico Expected to Rise Supporting Power Demand Growth in Mexico Exports to Mexico are expected to rise 1.7 Bcf/d or 114% between 2012 and Several pipeline projects are in the works to facilitate this increase. Rising gas production in Eagle Ford and increasing gas fired power generation demand in Mexico is fueling the rise in exports. From Southwest From Texas 17
18 Transportation Scenario Vehicle Type Total Gallons Consumed (Millions) Bcf/d Full Conversion Passenger 130, Bus 1, Truck (Long Haul) 26, Rail 3, Marine Vessel 4, Total 166, : 5% of Long Haul Trucks = 0.5 Bcf/d 80% of all Buses = 0.3 Bcf/d 0.25% of Passenger Cars = 0.1 Bcf/d 5% of Rail = 0.1 Bcf/d 5% of Marine Vessel = 0.1 Bcf/d TOTAL = 1.1 Bcf/d Source: BENTEK, EIA, Federal Highway Administration 18
19 Natural Gas Liquids Trends 19
20 Increasing Supply Drives Exports 20
21 US NGL Infrastructure Additions Allows Production Growth Mb/d MMcf/d Gas Production Gas Processing NGL Fractionation NGL Transportation Bcf/d Bcf/d +1.5 MMb/d MMb/d Proposed US NGL Projects 2,000 12,000 1,500 10,000 8,000 1,000 6, ,000 2, TBD Transport Capacity Fractionation Processing 21
22 Mb/d U.S. NGL Production to Increase by 1.7 MMb/d ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Ethane 43% Propane 28% N Butane 10% I Butane 6% Natural Gasoline 13% 22
23 Expansions, Feedslate Switching and New Steam Cracker Projects to Increase Demand for Ethane Project Capacity Type Year Operational Steam Cracker Capacity (MMlbs/yr) Ethane Demand (MB/d) Williams - Geismar Expansion Westlake - Lake Charles #2 Expansion Ineos - Chocolate Bayou Expansion Dow - St Charles Restart Lyondell - Channelview Feed Slate Switch Lyondell - Clinton Debottleneck BASF Debottleneck Westlake - Calvert City Feed Slate Switch Lyondell - La Porte Expansion Dow - Plaquamine Expansion Westlake - Lake Charles #1 Expansion Exxon New CP Chem New Occidental/Mexichem New Formosa New Dow New Sasol New Shell New Total 22, Source: NGL Market Call, Data as of April 26,
24 Mb/d U.S. Ethane Market Long With Williston Ethane Produced, Rejection to Exceed 200 Mb/d from ,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Gas Plant Supply Refinery Supply Petchem Demand Exports Rejected Volumes Source: NGL Market Call, Data as of April 26,
25 Planned PDH Capacity in the U.S. and Canada Working to Balance North American Market Project Capacity Type Year Operational PDH Capacity (MMlbs/yr) Propane Demand (Mb/d) Dow Chemical New Enterprise New Formosa New C3 Petrochemicals New Williams (Canada) New Total
26 Mb/d Growth in Propane Supply to be Relieved by Exports and Petrochemicals Petchem Demand Heating Demand Exports Propane Supply Note: Updated as of 4/26/2013, Source BENTEK NGL Market Call 26
27 Export Capacity Could Expand by over 750 Mb/d Company Status Capacity (Mb/d) ISD Targa: Galena Park Current 40 N/A Enterprise Products Operating Current 225 N/A Targa: Galena Park Expansion 60 3Q2013 Mariner East New 45 3Q2014 Targa: Galena Park Expansion Q2014 Vitol New 90 1Q2015 Occidental New Targa: Galena Park Expansion Sunoco Logistics Partners New Altagas New Total Potential Capacity
28 Overbuild of LPG Export Capacity On the Horizon if all Facilities Move Forward & Operate Near Design Capacity Mb/d Faster than Expected Growth Needed to Fill All Projects Propane Exports Butane Exports Total Export Capacity 28
29 MBPD Exports Required to Keep Normal Butane Balanced Gas Plant Supply Refinery Production Imports Petchem Demand Isomerization Demand Refinery Inputs Note: Updated as of 4/26/2013, Source BENTEK NGL Market Call
30 Isobutane Market to Balance by Reducing Isomerization MBPD Gas Plant Supply Isomerization Octane Enhancement Petchem Refinery Inputs Exports Note: Updated as of 4/26/2013, Source BENTEK NGL Market Call
31 MBPD U.S. Natural Gasoline Supply Will Be Exported for Diluent in Western Canada & Potentially Abroad to Petchems Gas Plants Imports Petchem Renewable Fuels Refinery Demand Exports Note: Updated as of 4/26/2013, Source BENTEK NGL Market Call
32 Crude Oil Trends 32
33 Mb/d U.S. Oil Production Growth Primarily From Permian, Bakken, and Eagle Ford 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 U.S. Production Forecast Source: HPDI & May 2013 BENTEK Crude Oil PADD Balances Rest of U.S. Permian Bakken Eagle Ford
34 New Pipelines To Flow Canadian and U.S. Production to Coastal Markets Bakken Niobrara Anadarko Permian Pipe with Firm Commitments Source: Petroleum Project Tracker Not All Projects Shown Eagle Ford Proposed Pipeline 34
35 Miles Crude Oil Pipeline Projects 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Source: Petroleum Project Tracker Not All Projects Shown Other Crude Oil 35
36 Mb/d Waterborne Imports to Account for Only 13% of Total U.S. Crude Supply by ,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Domestic Production U.S. Waterborne Imports Canadian Imports % Non-Canadian Source: BENTEK May 2013 Crude Oil PADD Balances
37 Ket Takeaways The shale boom for natural gas, NGL s and oil continues Power Generation and Industrial Demand gain market LNG creates an outlet for growing U.S. supply of gas Mexican gas demand continues to grow NGL growth requires significant infrastructure development Crude oil production growth pushes out imports Significant investment in new infrastructure required 37
38 Q&A 38
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