The History & the Future of 5G. Chetan Sharma CEO Chetan Sharma Consulting
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1 The History & the Future of 5G Chetan Sharma CEO Chetan Sharma Consulting
2 Chetan Sharma Consulting: A Global Mobile Strategy Firm 15 yr old Seattle based Mobile Strategy firm, 22+ years in mobile Advisor to major operators, brands, startups, VCs, and Fortune 500 firms around the world. Strategy for each of the top 6 global mobile data operators Have a unique 360 o view of the ecosystem Advisory Boards: Telefonica, Kymeta Corporation, Globalpay, Opanga Networks, Lotusflare, Ericsson, NextNav, Other Startups Product and Business Strategy Market Research Intellectual Property Mobile Thought-leadership Summits
3 Chetan Sharma Consulting: A Global Mobile Strategy Firm
4 Chetan Sharma Consulting: Staying ahead of the curve
5 Chetan Sharma Consulting: Staying ahead of the curve
6 Goals for the Summit 5G and IoT Share knowledge about the state of art, the state of the possible Learn by challenging our collective assumptions How do we (North America) maintain leadership in the industry and guide rest of the world? How can NA move from trials to deployments and create the blueprint for the rest of the world? How do we create collaborative frameworks and thriving ecosystems?
7 The discussions in the talk were influenced by the following papers The History and the Future of Connected Intelligence - 5G-The past, present, and the future of mobile industry evolution - Connected Intelligence The Golden Age of Mobile - Mobile 4 th Wave The Evolution of the next Trillion Dollars - Operator s Dilemma The 4 th Wave - And some forthcoming research and papers
8 CLASH of the CURVES
9 GDP and Economic Cycles Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2015
10 Connected Intelligence: The biggest opportunity of our lifetime
11 Connected Intelligence Era: The Golden Age of Mobile Industrial Revolution Age of Steam and Railways Age of Steel, Electricity, and Heavy Engineering Age of Oil, Automobiles, and Mass Production Age of Information and Telecommunications Connected Intelligence Era Britain Britain US/Germany overtaking Britain US, then Europe US, then Europe and Asia 2013 US, then Europe and Asia Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2013 Adapted from Carlota Perez thesis on technology Growth and adoption Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2015
12 Key goal of any technology era Task is a basic unit Efficiency Tasks n n = f( k=0 n k Tasks(time))
13 5G: What can we learn from the past?
14 When basic building blocks fit together in harmony, Ecosystems see exponential growth Chetan Sharma Consulting, All Rights Reserved
15 What do Operators think about 5G?
16 Why 5G? Source: What 100 Operators really think About 5G, Ericsson Business Review, Issue 1, 2016
17 Business Driver: Consumer vs. Business Source: What 100 Operators really think about 5G, Ericsson Business Review, Issue 1, 2016
18 Trials Source: What 100 Operators really think about 5G, Ericsson Business Review, Issue 1, 2016
19 Connected Intelligence: Building Blocks
20 Connected Intelligence Era: The Golden Age of Mobile Products & Services INDUSTRIES Connectivity Intelligence Data Trust Thinking Objects Access Devices/Sensors Services Source: Connected Intelligence Era: The Golden Age of Mobile Chetan Sharma Consulting, All Rights Reserved
21 Page Title Goes Here 100 Mbps 1000 reduction 100x < 1ms in power latency 30x device 1000x connected density traffic devices WiFi First Connected Intelligence: Connectivity Chetan Sharma Consulting, All Rights Reserved
22 Connected Intelligence Era: The Golden Age of Mobile Products & Services INDUSTRIES Connectivity Intelligence Data Trust Thinking Objects Access Devices/Sensors Services Source: Connected Intelligence Era: The Golden Age of Mobile Chetan Sharma Consulting, All Rights Reserved
23 Chetan Sharma Consulting, All Rights Reserved
24
25 Key 5G Performance Criterion Bit/s/Hz/m 2 /joule/$ Speed Spectrum Coverage Energy Cost Adapted from 5G Network Capacity: Key Elements and Technologies, IEEE Vehicular Magazine, 2014 Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2016
26 2014: 4 th Wave > Access Revenue 21% 4 th wave revenues surpassed access revenues YoY Growth Chetan Sharma Consulting, All Rights Reserved
27 2015: 4 th Wave > SUM (1-3 rd ) Wave Revenues Chetan Sharma Consulting, All Rights Reserved
28 Global Mobile Industry Revenue 4 th Wave Revenues We are here Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2016
29 What are the right questions to ask?
30 Page Title Goes Here How can 5G lead us to Lead us to zero road fatalities? (5M crashes, 35K deaths/year in US) Increase life expectancy of our generation by 10%? (90 yrs in Monaco, Chad 49 yrs) Eliminate deaths from preventable deseases? (1.5M kids die each year) Solve the water shortage problem? (750M lack access to water) Eliminate the risk/deaths in natural disasters? ($2T damage, 2.9 affected, 1.2M killed) Make education available universally? (60% don t have college degree in the US) Reduce healthcare costs by 80%? ($8T annually in the US) Raise productivity by 100%? Reduce the impact of global conflicts and war? (project Daniel, etc.) Create new jobs and train the workforce? (negate the impact of automation) Give each of us 10 hr/week back? (60 80 hrs of work/week).. Chetan Sharma Consulting, All Rights Reserved
31 5G Questions to Explore Page Title Goes Here Technology & Timelines Consumer expectations and Enterprise roadmaps Business case for 5G. Why now? Use Cases? Standardization Process, Harmonization Licensed vs. Unlicensed Transition from 4G to 5G IoT use cases IoT: Industrial vs. Consumer New Business models of deployment Alternate network deployment models The relationship between 5G and IoT IoT: LPWA networks 5G: Innovation at the edges of the ecosystem 5G Applications and Services: Transportation, Media, and 5G: Value Creation and Value Capture 5G: Data, Security, and Privacy Chetan Sharma Consulting, All Rights Reserved
32 Page Title Goes Here 5G Workshop Agenda Day 1 Vision: Ericsson & Qualcomm 5G Standards 5G Technology 5G Spectrum 5G & Operators 5G & Startup Innovation Dinner Day 2 5G & IoT 5G Applications 5G: Alternate Deployments
33 5G Workshop Day 2
34 Business Case for 5G cure for stress epidemic? Source: Ericsson
35 US Consumer Spending: What can we learn?
36
37 How will you make your own platform? Products & Services INDUSTRIES Connectivity Intelligence Data Trust Thinking Objects Access Devices/Sensors Services Source: Connected Intelligence Era: The Golden Age of Mobile Chetan Sharma Consulting, All Rights Reserved
38 Thank You
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