FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll 15 February 07

Transcription

1 FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll 15 February 07 Polling was conducted by telephone February 13-14, 2007, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted. LV = likely voters 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president? *** Bush Job Ratings Summary *** Approve Disapprove (Don t know) Most recent (13-14 Feb 07) 35% 56 9 Highest (14-15 Nov 01) 88% 7 5 Lowest (18-19 Apr 06) 33% First-Term Average 61% 29 Dis Approve approve (DK) Feb 07 35% 56 9 Democrats 8% 88 4 Republicans 69% Independents 26% 65 9 RECENT TREND Jan 07 38% Jan 07 35% Dec 06 38% Nov 06 LV 38% Oct 06 LV 40% Oct 06 LV 40% Sep 06 LV 42% Sep 06 LV 40% Aug 06 38% Aug 06 36% Jul 06 36% Jun 06 41% Jun 06 40% May 06 35% May 06 38% Apr 06 33% Apr 06 36% Mar 06 39% Feb-1 Mar 06 39% Feb 06 44% Jan 06 41% Jan 06 42% Dec 05 42% 51 7 Dis Approve approve (DK) Nov 05 42% Nov 05 36% Oct 05 41% Oct 05 40% Sep 05 45% Sep 05 41% Aug 05 45% Jul 05 47% Jul 05 47% Jun 05 48% Apr 05 47% Mar 05 49% Mar 05 52% Feb 05 51% Jan 05 50% Jan 05 52% Dec 04 48% Nov 04 53% Oct 04 47% Oct 04 LV 48% Oct 04 47% Oct 04 LV 48% Oct 04 47% Oct 04 LV 47% Oct 04 48% Oct 04 LV 49% Oct 04 LV 49% Oct 04 LV 53% 43 4

2 2. 8. I m going to read a list of topics that have been in the news recently. For each topic, please tell me if you have been following the news about that item very closely, somewhat closely, not very closely, or not at all closely. (RANDOMIZE LIST) *** Summary *** Following News About % Saying Very Closely Situation in Iraq 55% 2008 election 37% Non-binding Iraq resolution 31% Death of Anna Nicole 16% American Idol 13% Libby trial 10% Astronaut arrest 10% --- Closely Not closely - TOTAL Vry Smwt TOTAL Ntvry Not (Don t know) The situation in Iraq 93% Democrats 96% Republicans 95% Independents 93% Aug 06 94% Feb-1 Mar 06 87% Jul 05 82% Mar 05 92% Jan 04 86% Mar 03* 92% * "... war in Iraq" The 2008 presidential election 77% Democrats 78% Republicans 78% Independents 78% Congressional debate on a non-binding resolution on Iraq 69% Democrats 73% Republicans 67% Independents 67% The death of Anna Nicole Smith 51% Democrats 51% Republicans 53% Independents 54% This season of American Idol 26% Democrats 28% Republicans 32% Independents 22% The Lewis Scooter Libby Trial 31% Democrats 35% Republicans 27%

3 Independents 32% Closely Not closely - TOTAL Vry Smwt TOTAL Ntvry Not (Don t know) The arrest of astronaut Lisa Nowak 41% Democrats 43% Republicans 40% Independents 44% Do you think it is too early for 2008 presidential candidates to be campaigning or not? Feb 07 47% 49 4 Democrats 37% 59 4 Republicans 58% 38 3 Independents 50% Do you want Ralph Nader to enter the 2008 presidential race? Feb 07 14% Democrats 13% Republicans 13% Independents 20% Do you want Al Gore to enter the 2008 presidential race? Feb 07 26% Democrats 41% 53 6 Republicans 13% 79 8 Independents 20% Do you want Jeb Bush to enter the 2008 presidential race? Feb 07 16% Democrats 5% 91 4 Republicans 31% Independents 8% Are you hoping there is someone new who you haven t heard about yet who may enter the 2008 presidential race? Feb 07 49% 43 7 Democrats 46% 50 4 Republicans 53% 38 9 Independents 53% In 2000, do you think Ralph Nader cost Democrat Al Gore the presidential election, or not? Feb 07 26% Democrats 40% Republicans 15% Independents 24% Mar 04 37% Democrats 49% Republicans 25% Independents 36% 49 15

4 Now I am going to read a list of possible candidates for the next presidential race. For each one, please tell me whether you would definitely vote for that candidate for president, if you might vote for that candidate, or if under no conditions would you vote for that candidate. (RANDOMIZE LIST) SCALE: 1. Definitely vote for 2. Might vote for 3. Under no conditions vote for 4. (Don t know) Definitely Might Under no conditions vote for vote for* vote for (DK) Hillary Clinton 18% Democrats 32% Republicans 4% Independents 19% Feb 06 35% Barack Obama 12% Democrats 20% Republicans 5% Independents 13% Rudy Giuliani 15% Democrats 10% Republicans 24% Independents 12% Feb 06 33% John McCain 9% Democrats 7% Republicans 13% Independents 7% Feb 06 30% Newt Gingrich 7% Democrats 3% Republicans 16% Independents 3% Ralph Nader 3% Democrats 1% Republicans 3% Independents 4% John Edwards 7% Democrats 14% Republicans 2% Independents 6% *Previously think about voting 22. If John McCain and Rudy Giuliani were the only choices in the Republican primary, how would you vote? (ROTATE) McCain Giuliani (Don t know) (Would not vote) Feb 07 Republicans 31% Independents 27% Dec 06 Republicans 40% Independents 41% Aug 06 Republicans 36%

5 Independents 46% If Newt Gingrich and John McCain were the only choices in the Republican primary, how would you vote? (ROTATE) Gingrich McCain (Don t know) (Would not vote) Feb 07 Republicans 28% Independents 15% If Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were the only choices in the Democratic primary, how would you vote? (ROTATE) Clinton Obama (Don t know) (Would not vote) Feb 07 Democrats 49% Independents 31% Dec 06 Democrats 52% Independents 32% Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today and the candidates were [Democrat NAME], [Republican NAME], and [independent NAME], for whom would you vote? Hillary Rudy Ralph (Other/ Clinton Giuliani Nader Don t know) Feb 07 40% Democrats 73% Republicans 7% Independents 40% What if the candidates were [Democrat NAME] and [Republican NAME] (ROTATE QUESTIONS 26 AND 27 AND ROTATE ORDER OF NAMES WITHIN QUESTIONS) Hillary Rudy (Other/ Clinton Giuliani Don t know) Feb 07 40% Democrats 73% 20 7 Republicans 6% 87 8 Independents 39% Dec 06 39% Aug 06 42% May 06 40% Mar 06 39% Feb 06 40% Sep 05 39% Nov 04 38% Barack Rudy (Other/ Obama Giuliani Don t know) Feb 07 39% Democrats 65% Republicans 11% Independents 39% Dec 06 35% 46 19

6 I m going to read you a list of issues and characteristics. For each one, please tell me whether you would be more or less likely to support that candidate. First, would you be more likely or less likely to support a candidate who [ITEM], or would it not be a major factor in your vote? (If more/less: Is that a lot or only somewhat (more/less) likely? SCALE: 1. A lot more likely 2. Somewhat more likely 3. Somewhat less likely 4. A lot less likely 5. Not a major factor in your vote 6. (Don t know) (RANDOMIZE LIST) - More Likely - - Less Likely - Not major TOTAL A lot Smwt TOTAL Smwt A lot factor (DK) Is pro-choice on the issue of abortion 35% Democrats 46% Republicans 22% Independents 42% Supports civil unions for gays and lesbians 23% Democrats 33% Republicans 8% Independents 24% Is a Mormon 8% Democrats 6% Republicans 8% Independents 8% Has had health problems in the recent past 9% Democrats 8% Republicans 10% Independents 12% Smokes cigarettes 5% Democrats 5% Republicans 5% Independents 7% Has changed his or her position on the war in Iraq 22% Democrats 20% Republicans 18% Independents 31% Has changed his or her position on the issue of abortion 15% Democrats 14% Republicans 16% Independents 12%

7 I d like to get your opinion on some of the presidential candidates positions on abortion. For each one, please tell me if you think that candidate is pro-choice or pro-life on the issue of abortion. If you don t know, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE LIST) Pro-choice Pro-life (Don t know) Rudy Giuliani 37% Democrats 32% Republicans 42% Independents 39% John McCain 12% Democrats 11% Republicans 13% Independents 13% Hillary Clinton 62% 8 29 Democrats 63% Republicans 67% 5 27 Independents 57% Which country do you think poses the greatest immediate danger to the United States? OPEN ENDED DO NOT READ Feb Jan Jan 05 (Iran) 32% 28% 18 (North Korea) (Iraq) (China) (USA) (Russia) (Saudi Arabia) (Afghanistan) (Pakistan) (Syria) (Other) (Don t know/refused) Who do you think is more frightening -- radical Muslim terrorists today or Nazis in the 1930s? (ROTATE) Terrorists Nazis (Both the same) (Neither) (Don t know) Feb 07 51% Democrats 48% Republicans 62% Independents 44% In general, during a time of war, would you prefer a president who: SCALE: 1. Sticks to his convictions 2. Can be persuaded to change his mind and withdraw 3. (Depends) 4. (Don t know) Sticks to Changes his convictions mind (Depends) (Don t know) Feb 07 45% Democrats 28% Republicans 70% Independents 36%

8 41. How likely do you think it is that sending additional U.S. troops to Iraq will stabilize the situation there? --- Likely Not likely -- TOTAL Vry Smwt TOTAL Ntvry Not (Don t know) Feb 07 37% Democrats 20% Republicans 63% Independents 28% Which of the following do you think is more important for Congress to vote on? Is it more important that Congress vote on: (ROTATE) 1. A symbolic, non-binding resolution expressing opposition to sending more troops to Iraq 2. An actual binding proposal on whether or not to fund the increase in troops to Iraq 3. (Both) 4. (Neither) 5. (Don t know) Non-binding Binding (Both) (Neither) (DK) Feb 07 31% Democrats 37% Republicans 23% Independents 36% If you were a member of Congress, how would you vote specifically on increasing U.S. troop levels in Iraq -- would you vote for or against funding the increase in troops? For Against (Don t know) Feb 07 37% 54 9 Democrats 16% 77 7 Republicans 64% Independents 30% Jan 07 38% Do you think members of Congress who oppose sending more troops to Iraq are showing a lack of courage if they do not also vote against funding the troop increase? Feb 07 34% Democrats 30% 63 7 Republicans 43% Independents 32% When you hear a public figure is going into drug or alcohol rehab after experiencing an embarrassing event or being exposed for socially inappropriate behavior, are you more likely to think they are going into rehab because they are serious about getting help or as an excuse for their bad behavior? Serious about Excuse for getting help bad behavior (Mixed) (Don t know) Feb 07 19% Democrats 18% Republicans 23% Independents 18%

9 46. On the issue of abortion, would you say you are more pro-life or more prochoice? Pro-life Pro-choice (Both, mix) (Not sure) Feb 07 40% Democrats 29% Republicans 61% Independents 28% Feb-1 Mar 06 41% Apr 05 42% Apr 04 47% Jul 03 44% Apr 03 41% Jan 02 41% Jan 01 42% July 00 38% Jan 00 44% June 99 44% Jan 98 46% Aug 97 40% POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION: When you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a Republican? Democrat Republican (Independent) (Other) (Refused/Don t know) Feb 07 37% Jan 07 40% Jan 07 40% Dec 06 36% Nov 06 LV 39% Oct 06 LV 39% Oct 06 LV 38% Sep 06 LV 38% Sep 06 LV 36% Aug 06 41% Aug 06 42%