WIND ENERGY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT. Luc Dewilde 3E nv.

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1 WIND ENERGY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT Luc Dewilde 3E nv August

2 WHAT WE DO Independent expert services Renewable energy Energy efficiency Power systems & markets Portfolio performance optimization Solar dashboards Wind dashboards Grid tools October 2010 TU Delft 2

3 ACTIVITIES WORLDWIDE SINCE 1999 Offices in Belgium, France, China and Turkey Agents in the United States and South Africa Activities on 5 continents including Antarctica South Africa Mali Ghana Kenya Rwanda Tanzania 3

4 GROWING WITH 3E Foundation Spin-off IMEC PV Group Building expertise in renewable energy & energy efficiency Beijing office Cape Town Wind Experts VUB join 3E Toulouse office Istanbul office FTE 4

5 THE PROJECT CYCLE

6 CONDITIONS FOR WIND PROJECT DEVELOPMENT Country political stability Legal framework Wind conditions Infrastructure, grid, roads, logistics Engineering capabilities Consent procedure (timing etc) Synergies (wind, PV) TU Delft 6

7 CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD SITE Good wind conditions quantity(frequency distribution) quality(shear, turbulence) Other atmospheric conditions (temp, pressure) No obstacles Accessibility Grid availability Soil/earth conditions Exclusions 7

8 PROJECT CYCLE IN WIND PROJECT DEVELOPMENT Project Planning Resource assessment Wind farm design Project contracting Wind farm Realization Operation Management Wind mapping Constraint mapping Site screening Economical feasibility Wind measurements Resource analysis Site classification (/assessment / compatibility) Wind turbine type assessment park lay-out (micrositing) Yield assessment Grid connection design Impact studies Permitting and consent Balance of plant design Uncertainty anlysis and bankable reporting Tendering (EPC, O&M, PPA, insurance) Bid evaluation Contract negotiations Risk assessment and mitigation Financial and planning Quality control Commissioning Provisional & final acceptance Technical assistance Project management Site supervision Wind farm inspections Performance monitoring short term forecasting 8

9 1 PROJECT PLANNING

10 PROJECT PLANNING (1/2) Planning CONSTRAINT MAPPING Clear overviews of all geographical, environmental, technical, const raints on wind projects. Interactive GIS tool WIND MAPPING Facilitating the selection of optimal wind resource locations. Precise local or regional wind maps based on generic country wind data (NCAR/MERRA) Modelling tools Meso scale modelling /WAsP 10

11 PROJECT PLANNING (2/2) SITE SCREENING Overlay of wind maps and constraints, grid infrastructure, roads etc. Threshold criteria (ex distance to grid / minimal wind speed etc) identification of interesting sites. PRE FEASIBILITY Revenues Investment cost Maintenance cost Financial parameters list of feasible locations TU Delft 11

12 2 RESOURCE ASSESSMENT

13 RESOURCE ASSESSMENT Why wind data is needed for Insure profitability Solid business plan with average long term wind speed Avoid losses Optimized wind farm design with wind speed & orientation, wake Avoid legal disputes Suited wind turbine selection with wind speed distribution / extremes / turbulence / temperature Insure financing Bankability of the project with all data and clear levels of uncertainty Best October Practices in Wind Resource Assessments 13

14 WHAT IS A RESOURCE ASSESSMENT Measurements Modelling Traditional met mast State of the art tools (WAsP/ Remote sensing techniques WAsP Eng/CFD) (LIDAR/SODAR) Complex terrain evaluation Compliance checks with IEC

15 WIND MAPPING TOOLS: THE WASP METHOD Input: 1) Long term wind data 2) Orography 3) Roughness Tools: GIS application Surfer WAsP (Wind Analysis and Application Program) Output: Resource map

16 LONG TERM WIND DATA European Countries with long term reference stations Countries without quality reference stations What to do NCAR reanalyis data MERRA ECMWF

17 OROGRAPHY Provided by national NGI SRTM data SPOT image Source:VUB

18 ROUGHNESS Roughness classes according to terrain conditions (Manually, Corine Database, USGS)

19 ROUGHNESS MAP FLANDERS Source:VUB

20 EXAMPLE 20

21 WIND MAPPING TOOLS CFD Analysis using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software for wind flow assessments in complex terrains 21

22 MEASUREMENTS Work according to standards: IEC standard MEASNET recommendations Do a pre-siting in complex terrain Use quality instruments 12 months period 22

23 KEY GUIDELINES FOR STANDARD ASSESSMENTS Measure at a height of 2/3 of the turbine hub height Minimum 12 months Use high performance, calibrated instruments Respect distance to obstacles Check data quality at least every week Respect orientation, length of booms according to diameter of mast Be redundant (two instruments at every level) 23

24 SENSORS First class anemometers (MEASNET calibrated) Windvanes for direction Temperature (2 levels) Humidity Pressure (Vertical anemometer) 1 Hz sampling data 24

25 ESSENTIAL STEPS FOR ACCURATE DATA Wind Tunnel Calibration V [m/s] = a (f meas)+b 25

26 ESSENTIAL STEPS FOR ACCURATE DATA Site visit Topografic data Design mast layout and equipment specification Installation and commisioning (report) tracebility Follow up of the measurements regurarely Analyse the measurments thoroughly Long term correlation with a reference station Vertical extrapolation of the data to hub Height Annual energy yield calculation based on the PV curve Uncertainty analysis of the different stages in order to arrive at a bankable report One poor quality measuring campaign is a loss of money that you discover only at the end. Ref document Evaluation of site specific conditions, Measnet 2009 guidelines 26

27 LIDAR & SODAR Up to 210m or higher 80m mast 60m mast 27

28 LIDAR INSIDE OUT 28

29 WHY LIDAR Easy to use No need for permit or mast erection Allows for «quick scan» of a site Accurate Reduced AEP uncertainty Direct wind profile measurement Measurements at hub height Mobile For all sites, including complex terrain 29

30 WHAT FOR Reducing uncertainty at hub height Depending on roughness and climate, interpolation of wind speed from mast height to hub height creates errors Wind speed profile 100 Uncertainty at 100m: 0.6m/s Error: 1% error on AEP per every 10m above mast Height Measurement at 40m Wind speed 30

31 WHAT FOR Reducing uncertainty on complex terrain Measurements at multiple locations on site reduce uncertainties related to both horizontal and vertical wind speed extrapolations No need for multiple masts Validation of the vertical profile Validation of the wind flow model 31

32 WHAT FOR Reducing uncertainty on wind investments P90 values P50 value Annual Energy Production estimates: Gaussian statistic with a 50MW wind farm, NCF of 2100 hours, and AEP uncertainty 15% (blue curve) and 12% (red curve). Reducing the AEP uncertainty of a few points leads to a consequent increase of energy expected at P90 32

33 ESENTIAL STEPS FOR ACCURATE DATA Data analysis Wind rose and energy rose Turbulence analysis! Wind speed distribution Annual and monthly mean wind speed Seasonal variations 33

34 ESSENTIAL STEPS FOR ACCURATE DATA Data analysis Weibull distribution per sector 34

35 ESSENTIAL STEPS FOR ACCURATE DATA Long-term correlation Variation in energy yield could easily reach 15% per year. Long term correlation will take this variation into account and make the energy calculation for the standard year 140 Variations production (%)

36 ESSENTIAL STEPS FOR ACCURATE DATA Long-term correlation using MCP Measure Correlate Predict for site wind climate calculations based on a reference station data Requirements: Reliable meteo station measurements over at least 10 years At least 6 months of parallel data 36

37 ESSENTIAL STEPS FOR ACCURATE DATA Linear regression per sector Best October Practices in Wind Resource Assessments 37

38 ESSENTIAL STEPS FOR ACCURATE DATA Vertical extrapolation Logaritmic profile (neutral) u z u z ln κ z = 0 Power law u 1 h 1 α = u2 h2 Wind profile depends on Atmosferic stability Roughness of terrain Orography Eventual obstacles 38

39 3 WIND FARM DESIGN

40 MAIN TURBINE DESIGN CONDITIONS Cut-in wind speed (2.5-4m/s) Rated wind speed (11-16m/s) Cut out wind-speed (18-25m/s) Extreme wind speed (50-year gust) Installed power W/m 2 ( W/m 2 ) Turbulence Intensity: I = σ Gust V av

41 TURBINE TYPES 41

42 TRADITIONAL CONCEPT TU Delft 42

43 COMPACT DESIGNS TU Delft 43

44 DIRECT DRIVE MACHINES TU Delft 44

45 WIND TURBINE CLASSES (IEC ) Class I II III S V ref V av I 15 (A) I 15 (B)

46 TECHNOLOGY CHOICE Main issues: Check of turbine certification status Investigation of wind turbine track record Quality assessment of component suppliers Visit to wind turbine manufacturing plant to: Inspect assembly instructions and procedures Inspect assembly quality control procedures Assess the general quality and traceability Compliance with the site ( extreme wind speeds/ turbulences) TU Delft 46

47 FROM WIND SPEED TO ENERGY WIND TURBINE POWER CURVE WIND SPEED DISTRIBUTION Puissan nce (kw) Vitesse (m/s) ANNUAL ENERGY YIELD (MWh/y)

48 DESIGNING A WIND FARM Array Distance between turbines Distance between rows Row Distance between turbines depending on orientation

49 ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS: NOISE Mechanical Noise gear box convertors motors engines Aero dynamical Noise Blade tips Tower interaction Attention for damages

50 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES : SHADOW Elke positie op aarde wordt gekarakteriseerd door een unieke zone van slagschaduw veroorzaakt door de windturbine. Dicht bij de evenaar, lijkt deze zone op de vorm van een vlinder. Dicht tegen de polen verandert deze vorm meer naar een cirkel.

51 STATISTICAL APPROACH

52 SCHADOW CONTOURS Max 17 days/year Max 20 Min/day Up to 12 D

53 SHADOW FOR A WIND FARM ARRAY

54 ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS :VISUALISATION

55 ZONES OF VISUAL INFLUENCE

56 OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS Birds Bats Fauna&flora Vibrations Icing TU Delft 56

57 GRID ANALYSES AND SIMULATIONS INTERNAL GRID DESIGN FOR WIND FARMS Grid layout and topology check Design of collector systems within wind farms Component sizing Grid code and legal compliance checks 57

58 LOGISTICS Crane availability Harbours and logistics road surveys Internal roads in the wind farm Site organisation April

59 4. CONTRACTING

60 CONTRACTING PROJECT CONSENT AND PERMITTING Technical consultant will deliver information and support for consent applications Environmental Impact assessment CONTRACTING EPC versus Multi contracting Risk allocation and mitigation Tender documents preparation for contracts: EPC - O&M PPA Insurances Evaluation of tenders. 60

61 TIME LINES AND PLANNING 61

62 Thank you October 2011 Best Practices in Wind Resource Assessments 62