Weekly Valuation Update & Metrics Review Big Data & Cyber Security Firms Ended: Friday, November 14, 2014
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- Donna Lester
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1 Weekly Valuation Update & Metrics Review Big Data & Cyber Security Firms Ended: Friday, November 14, 2014 Michael S. Lewis, CFA Managing Director (703) Michael J. Smith, CFA Managing Director (727) SILVERLINE GROUP, LLC SILVERLINE CAPITAL GROUP, LLC 1750 TYSONS BLVD., SUITE 1500 MCLEAN, VIRGINIA
2 Table of Contents Big Data Firm Review 3 14 Cyber Security Firm Review Universe Review Companies Mentioned in Report Price Cons. Rating Analysts Akamei $62.93 Buy (2.00) 23 Amazon $ Buy (2.11) 41 Aspen Technology $37.79 Hold (2.00) 5 CheckPoint $76.39 Buy (2.14) 27 CyberArk $44.37 Buy (-) 6 EMC $30.05 Buy (1.95) 36 FireEye $33.80 Buy (2.28) 25 Fortinet Inc. $27.14 Buy (2.07) 27 Imperva $44.43 Buy (2.08) 14 Juniper $20.99 Buy (2.43) 34 KEYW Holding $11.09 Buy (2.00) 8 Marketo $32.42 Buy (1.70) 10 Palo Alto Networks $ Buy (1.80) 30 Proofpoint $43.86 Buy (1.67) 15 Qualys $36.63 Hold (2.50) 13 Salesforce.com $63.91 Buy (1.77) 39 Splunk $68.35 Buy (2.00) 32 Tableau Software $84.83 Buy (2.21) 21 Verint Systems $58.60 Buy (1.80) 9 Workday $95.29 Buy (2.19) 26 Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 2
3 Big Data Firm Review Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 3
4 Comparable Analysis Big Data Firms Consensus Review Ticker Cons. Rating Cons. PT Last Mkt Cap (M) EV (M) FFQ P/E P/E Big Data Akamei AKAM Buy (2.00) $68 $62.93 $11,387 $11, x 22.6x x 11.4x 9.7x x 25.7x 25.5x 23. % prem / (disc) to median 0% 0% (57%) (18%) (18%) (23%) (21%) (21%) (13%) (22%) (21%) (22%) Amazon AMZN Buy (2.11) $354 $ $151,781 $153, x 19.2x 18.8x 14.8x 1.5x 1.4x 1.2x 41.5x 39.3x 27.3x % prem / (disc) to median % 37% 35% 17% (77%) (77%) (75%) 26% 21% (7%) Aspen Technology AZPN Hold (2.00) $46 $37.79 $3,473 $3, x x 16.2x - 7.6x 7.5x % prem / (disc) to median 24% 24% - 17% 17% - 18% 19% - (48%) (47%) - EMC EMC Buy (1.95) $32 $30.05 $61,813 $60, x x 7.3x 7.3x 6.8x 2.4x 2.4x 2.2x 10.5x 10.3x 10. % prem / (disc) to median (38%) (38%) (71%) (48%) (48%) (46%) (63%) (63%) (55%) (68%) (68%) (66%) Marketo MKTO Buy (1.70) $42 $32.42 $1,318 $1, x 6.6x % prem / (disc) to median % 4% 3% Salesforce.com CRM Buy (1.77) $69 $63.91 $39,433 $41, x x 34.5x 33.8x 27.3x x x 31.6x % prem / (disc) to median 312% 307% 57% 145% 143% 117% (5%) (4%) 0% 22% 22% 7% Splunk SPLK Buy (2.00) $69 $68.35 $8,134 $7, x 14.6x x 78.3x 49.9x % prem / (disc) to median % 131% 125% 145% 142% 69% Tableau Software DATA Buy (2.21) $96 $84.83 $5,850 $5, x x 10.9x 10.6x 7.8x 135.7x 133.6x 70.9x % prem / (disc) to median % % 69% 68% 59% 313% 313% 141% Verint Systems VRNT Buy (1.80) $62 $58.60 $3,349 $3, x 15.7x x 11.6x 10.4x 2.7x 2.7x 2.4x 16.9x 16.8x 15.7x % prem / (disc) to median (31%) (30%) (68%) (17%) (17%) (17%) (58%) (58%) (50%) (48%) (48%) (47%) Workday WDAY Buy (2.19) $104 $95.29 $17,564 $16, x 15.9x 11.3x x % prem / (disc) to median % 152% 130% % Big Data - Avg $30,410 $30, x 58.4x 16.8x 16.5x 20.9x 7.4x 7.3x 5.6x x Big Data - Med $9,761 $9, x 22.6x 43.9x x 12.6x 6.4x 6.3x 4.9x 32.9x 32.4x 29.5x P/E FFQ EV / EBITDA EV / EBITDA EV / EBITDA FFQ P/Rev P/Rev P/Rev FFQ Ticker Div Yield (%) 2014 YTD Rtn Qtr EBITDA Mrg Qtr EBIT Mrg Cash (% of Price) Ttl Debt / Cap Net Debt / Cap Ttl Debt / Equity EBITDA EBIT Mrg Mrg Est's Est's Akamei AKAM % 37.7% 24.1% 6.2% 17.4% (3.2%) 21.1% 43.1% 31.7% 11.1% 8.2% 3.9% 4.3% 1,655 $104,113 DEC Amazon AMZN - (17.8%) 3.4% - 4.5% 23.1% 14.6% 30.0% 7.7% 0.9% % 3.7% 3,770 $1,236,043 DEC Aspen Technology AZPN - (9.6%) 42.9% 41.7% 7.6% 0.0% (379.3%) 0.0% 42.7% 41.7% 142.5% 26.4% 5.9% $30,371 JUN EMC EMC 1.6% 19.5% 24.1% 16.3% 13.2% 18.4% (3.5%) 24.2% 31.7% 24.1% 11.4% 5.8% 9.7% 10.0% 14,676 $441,021 DEC Marketo MKTO - (12.5%) % 4.9% (90.2%) 5.2% $14,825 DEC Salesforce.com CRM % 5.7% - 2.1% 41.6% 36.2% 71.1% 18.7% 11.8% % 3.2% 4,877 $311,700 JAN Splunk SPLK - (0.5%) % 0.0% (105.4%) 0.0% 5.6% 3.4% % 2.0% 2,924 $199,839 JAN Tableau Software DATA % 0.2% % 0.0% (103.6%) 0.0% 8.5% 4.9% % 1.4% 1,433 $121,593 DEC Verint Systems VRNT % 13.8% 4.5% 6.7% 41.6% 29.2% 71.7% 26.6% 23.1% 6.0% 2.6% 5.9% 6.4% 463 $27,115 JAN Workday WDAY % % 29.9% (82.3%) 42.6% 0.8% % 1.1% 1,480 $141,070 JAN Big Data - Avg 1.6% 10.2% 18.2% 21.6% 8.1% 17.7% (68.7%) 26.6% 20.6% 17.7% 42.8% 10.7% 3.6% 4.0% 3,254 $262,769 Big Data - Med 1.6% 15.2% 13.8% 20.2% 8.3% 17.9% (42.9%) 22.7% 18.7% 17.4% 11.3% 7.0% 2.5% 3.4% 1,567 $131,332 LTM ROE LTM ROA Daily Vol (000) ($000) Vol / Day YE Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 4
5 Select Metrics Review Rev, EBITDA, FCF, FCF Yield, EPS % changes, EBITDA & EBIT Margins Ticker Rev EBITDA FCF Rev % or EBITDA Mrg Est's EBIT Mrg Est's EPS % or Big Data Akamei AKAM $2,284 $985 $ % 43.1% 31.7% 3.9% 15.0% Amazon AMZN $106,009 $8,176 $3, % 7.7% 0.9% 2.5% - Aspen Technology AZPN $464 $198 $ % 42.7% 41.7% 5.9% 16.8% EMC EMC $26,303 $8,345 $5, % 31.7% 24.1% 9.7% 12.5% Marketo MKTO $200 ($19) ($12) 34.9% Salesforce.com CRM $6,549 $1,226 $1, % 18.7% 11.8% 2.5% 38.4% Splunk SPLK $558 $31 $ % 5.6% 3.4% 1.3% 493.9% Tableau Software DATA $552 $47 $ % 8.5% 4.9% 0.7% 12.7% Verint Systems VRNT $1,253 $333 $ % 26.6% 23.1% 5.9% 10.4% Workday WDAY $1,105 $9 $7 48.0% 0.8% - 0.0% - Big Data - Avg $14,528 $1,933 $1, % 20.6% 17.7% 3.6% 85.7% Big Data - Med $1,179 $265 $ % 18.7% 17.4% 2.5% 15.0% Rev EBITDA FCF Rev % or Amazon $106,009 EMC $8,345 EMC $5,974 Workday 48.0% EMC $26,303 Amazon $8,176 Amazon $3,859 Tableau Software 41.3% Salesforce.com $6,549 Salesforce.com $1,226 Salesforce.com $1,002 Marketo 34.9% Akamei $2,284 Akamei $985 Akamei $447 Splunk 33.7% Verint Systems $1,253 Verint Systems $333 Aspen Technology $204 Salesforce.com 24.5% Workday $1,105 Aspen Technology $198 Verint Systems $199 Amazon 18.5% Splunk $558 Tableau Software $47 Splunk $104 Akamei 16.8% Tableau Software $552 Splunk $31 Tableau Software $44 Aspen Technology 11.8% Aspen Technology $464 Workday $9 Workday $7 Verint Systems 10.7% Marketo $200 Marketo ($19) Marketo ($12) EMC 7.3% Big Data - Avg $14,528 Big Data - Avg $1,933 Big Data - Avg $1,183 Big Data - Avg 24.8% Big Data - Med $1,179 Big Data - Med $265 Big Data - Med $201 Big Data - Med 21.5% EBITDA Mrg Est's EBIT Mrg Est's EPS % or Marketo - Marketo - Marketo - Amazon - Akamei 43.1% Workday - EMC 9.7% Marketo - Aspen Technology 42.7% Aspen Technology 41.7% Verint Systems 5.9% Workday - EMC 31.7% Akamei 31.7% Aspen Technology 5.9% Splunk 493.9% Verint Systems 26.6% EMC 24.1% Akamei 3.9% Salesforce.com 38.4% Salesforce.com 18.7% Verint Systems 23.1% Amazon 2.5% Aspen Technology 16.8% Tableau Software 8.5% Salesforce.com 11.8% Salesforce.com 2.5% Akamei 15.0% Amazon 7.7% Tableau Software 4.9% Splunk 1.3% Tableau Software 12.7% Splunk 5.6% Splunk 3.4% Tableau Software 0.7% EMC 12.5% Workday 0.8% Amazon 0.9% Workday 0.0% Verint Systems 10.4% Big Data - Avg 20.6% Big Data - Avg 17.7% Big Data - Avg 3.6% Big Data - Avg 85.7% Big Data - Med 18.7% Big Data - Med 17.4% Big Data - Med 2.5% Big Data - Med 15.0% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 5
6 Free Cash Flow Metric Review Ticker Last Shrs (M) LTM FCF FCF / Share Price / FCF FCF Yield FFQ FCF FCF FCF LTM FFQ FFQ Big Data Akamei AKAM $ $1.91 $2.45 $2.47 $ x 25.7x 25.5x % 3.9% 4.3% Amazon AMZN $ $2.33 $7.91 $8.34 $ x 41.5x 39.3x 27.3x 2.4% 2.5% 3.7% Aspen Technology AZPN $ $2.25 $2.23 $ x % 5.9% - EMC EMC $ ,057 $2.44 $2.87 $2.90 $ x 10.5x 10.3x % 9.7% 10.0% Marketo MKTO $ ($0.63) ($0.31) ($0.29) ($0.00) (0.9%) - - Salesforce.com CRM $ $1.38 $1.60 $1.62 $ x x 31.6x 2.5% 2.5% 3.2% Splunk SPLK $ $0.53 $0.85 $0.87 $ x 80.5x 78.3x 49.9x 1.2% 1.3% 2.0% Tableau Software DATA $ $0.62 $0.63 $0.63 $ x 135.7x 133.6x 70.9x 0.7% 0.7% 1.4% Verint Systems VRNT $ $2.60 $3.46 $3.48 $ x 16.9x 16.8x 15.7x 5.9% 5.9% 6.4% Workday WDAY $ ($0.15) $0.02 $0.04 $ x 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Big Data - Avg 67.2x x 3.1% 3.6% 4.0% Big Data - Med 39.6x 32.9x 32.4x 29.5x 2.5% 2.5% 3.4% Marketo - Marketo - Workday - EMC 9.7% Tableau Software 133.6x Verint Systems 5.9% Splunk 78.3x Aspen Technology 5.9% Salesforce.com 39.4x Akamei 3.9% Amazon 39.3x Amazon 2.5% Akamei 25.5x Salesforce.com 2.5% Aspen Technology 17. Splunk 1.3% Verint Systems 16.8x Tableau Software 0.7% EMC 10.3x Workday 0.0% Big Data - Avg 45. Big Data - Avg 3.6% Big Data - Med 32.4x Big Data - Med 2.5% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 6
7 Valuation Charts Big Data Firms Comparable Analysis P/E & EV/EBITDA 10 FFQ P/E x 10 P/E x 14.9x 20.5x 30.3x 90. JNPR CHKP FTNT KEYW QLYS PANW CYBR FEYE IMPV PFPT 13.2x 14.6x x 85.9x JNPR CHKP KEYW FTNT QLYS PANW CYBR FEYE IMPV PFPT 35x FFQ EV/EBITDA 3 25x 2 15x 1 5x x 10.2x x 33. JNPR KEYW CHKP FTNT QLYS PANW CYBR FEYE IMPV PFPT 35x EV/EBITDA x 32.7x CY'14 P/E x 16 P/E 4 35x 3 25x 2 15x 1 5x 14.8x 16.2x 23.6x x JNPR CHKP FTNT QLYS CYBR FEYE IMPV KEYW PANW PFPT 40.4x 11.9x x 16.2x 64.4x 74.9x 144.8x JNPR KEYW CHKP FTNT QLYS PANW CYBR FEYE IMPV PFPT 45x CY'14 EV/EBITDA 7.4x 11.7x 12.6x 19.8x 21.7x 41.7x JNPR CHKP KEYW FTNT QLYS CYBR FEYE IMPV PANW PFPT 6 EV/EBITDA x 54.3x x 2 15x 1 5x 13.6x 6.8x x 16.3x x JNPR KEYW CHKP FTNT QLYS PANW CYBR FEYE IMPV PFPT 15.5x x 6.3x 8.4x 9.8x 12.5x 25.9x 56.9x JNPR KEYW CHKP FTNT QLYS PANW PFPT CYBR FEYE IMPV 20. Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 7
8 Valuation Charts Big Data Firms Comparable Analysis Price / Revenue & FCF Yield 18x FFQ P/Revenue 16x 14x 12x 1 8x 6x 4x 2x x 2.2x 2.5x 4.5x 5.8x 6.3x 7.8x 10.9x x KEYW JNPR IMPV FTNT PFPT QLYS FEYE CYBR CHKP PANW 16x P/Revenue 14x 12x 1 8x 6x 4x 2x 5.8x 1.2x 2.2x 2.5x 4.4x 5.6x x 10.4x 13.5x 15. KEYW JNPR IMPV FTNT PFPT QLYS FEYE CYBR CHKP PANW CY'14 FCF Yield 2.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 2.0% 3.5% 5.4% 5.5% 8.5% PFPT PANW QLYS FTNT CHKP JNPR CYBR FEYE IMPV KEYW x 3.4% 25x CY'14 P/Revenue 2 15x 1 5x 7.6x 1 8x 6x 4x 2x 1.5x 2.4x 2.8x x 8.6x 14.2x KEYW JNPR IMPV FTNT PFPT QLYS CHKP FEYE CYBR PANW 12x P/Revenue 4.6x 0.0% x 3.7x 4.6x 4.6x 7.8x 10.2x 10.7x KEYW JNPR IMPV FTNT PFPT FEYE QLYS CYBR PANW CHKP FCF Yield 2.5% 0.7% 1.3% 2.5% 2.5% 3.9% 5.9% 5.9% 9.7% PFPT KEYW QLYS PANW FTNT CHKP JNPR CYBR FEYE IMPV x 3.6% FCF Yield 3.4% 1.1% 1.4% 2.0% 3.2% 3.7% 4.3% 6.4% 10.0% QLYS PFPT FTNT FEYE KEYW CHKP CYBR IMPV JNPR PANW 4.0% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 8
9 Valuation Charts Big Data Firms Comparable Analysis EBITDA Margin & EBIT Margin Last Qtr EBITDA Mrg 13.8% 18.7% 0.2% 3.4% 5.7% 13.8% 24.1% 37.7% 42.9% KEYW FTNT CYBR JNPR QLYS CHKP FEYE IMPV PANW PFPT EBITDA Mrg 0.8% 5.5% 7.8% 7.8% 18.7% 26.6% 31.7% 41.5% 43.2% PFPT CYBR KEYW PANW FTNT QLYS JNPR CHKP FEYE IMPV Last Qtr EBIT Mrg 20.1% 4.5% 16.3% 23.8% 36.8% QLYS FTNT JNPR CYBR CHKP FEYE IMPV KEYW PANW PFPT EBIT Mrg 18.2% 20.4% 20.4% CY'14 EBITDA Mrg 21.7% 12.1% 3.7% 6.9% 11.8% 17.8% 25.6% 31.3% 40.8% 43.5% KEYW PANW CYBR FTNT QLYS JNPR CHKP FEYE IMPV PFPT EBITDA Mrg 1.0% 4.4% 8.1% 8.6% 12.1% 18.6% 27.0% 31.9% 43.8% IMPV CYBR PFPT KEYW FTNT PANW QLYS JNPR CHKP FEYE CY'14 EBIT Mrg 1.2% 2.7% 22.7% 17.3% 22.2% 18.6% 10.4% 22.2% 23.9% 31.0% 39.1% CYBR QLYS PANW FTNT JNPR CHKP FEYE IMPV KEYW PFPT EBIT Mrg 17.4% 1.0% 3.3% 3.9% 11.7% 23.1% 24.1% 31.8% 40.3% CYBR KEYW QLYS PANW FTNT JNPR CHKP FEYE IMPV PFPT 17.4% 11.1% 0.9% 2.2% 6.2% 9.3% 12.9% 23.7% 24.7% 32.5% IMPV PFPT CYBR KEYW QLYS FTNT PANW JNPR CHKP FEYE 14.0% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 9
10 YTD, MTD, WTD Share Performance Ticker 12/31/13 11/16/14 Mkt Cap (M) Sub-Sector YTD % Big Data Verint Systems VRNT $42.94 $58.60 $3,349 Big Data 36.5% Akamei AKAM $47.18 $62.93 $11,387 Big Data 33.4% Tableau Software DATA $68.93 $84.83 $5,850 Big Data 23.1% EMC EMC $25.15 $30.05 $61,813 Big Data 19.5% Salesforce.com CRM $55.19 $63.91 $39,433 Big Data 15.8% Workday WDAY $83.16 $95.29 $17,564 Big Data 14.6% Splunk SPLK $68.67 $68.35 $8,134 Big Data (0.5%) Aspen Technology AZPN $41.80 $37.79 $3,473 Big Data (9.6%) Marketo MKTO $37.07 $32.42 $1,318 Big Data (12.5%) Amazon AMZN $ $ $151,781 Big Data (17.8%) Ticker 10/31/14 11/16/14 Mkt Cap (M) Sub-Sector Mth % Big Data Amazon AMZN $ $ $151,781 Big Data 7.3% EMC EMC $28.73 $30.05 $61,813 Big Data 4.6% Akamei AKAM $60.30 $62.93 $11,387 Big Data 4.4% Splunk SPLK $66.08 $68.35 $8,134 Big Data 3.4% Tableau Software DATA $82.59 $84.83 $5,850 Big Data 2.7% Aspen Technology AZPN $36.93 $37.79 $3,473 Big Data 2.3% Verint Systems VRNT $57.49 $58.60 $3,349 Big Data 1.9% Marketo MKTO $32.27 $32.42 $1,318 Big Data 0.5% Salesforce.com CRM $63.99 $63.91 $39,433 Big Data (0.1%) Workday WDAY $95.48 $95.29 $17,564 Big Data (0.2%) Ticker 11/7/14 11/16/14 Mkt Cap (M) Sub-Sector Wk % Big Data Amazon AMZN $ $ $151,781 Big Data 9.3% Akamei AKAM $60.13 $62.93 $11,387 Big Data 4.6% Marketo MKTO $31.00 $32.42 $1,318 Big Data 4.6% EMC EMC $29.12 $30.05 $61,813 Big Data 3.2% Splunk SPLK $66.87 $68.35 $8,134 Big Data 2.2% Workday WDAY $94.56 $95.29 $17,564 Big Data 0.8% Aspen Technology AZPN $37.59 $37.79 $3,473 Big Data 0.5% Salesforce.com CRM $63.97 $63.91 $39,433 Big Data (0.1%) Tableau Software DATA $84.92 $84.83 $5,850 Big Data (0.1%) Verint Systems VRNT $58.99 $58.60 $3,349 Big Data (0.7%) Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 10
11 Month % Big Data Firms YTD vs. MTD Changes 9% 8% 7% AMZN 6% 5% 4% EMC AKAM 3% 2% AZPN SPLK DATA VRNT 1% 0% MKTO CRM WDAY (1%) (25%) (15%) (5%) 5% 15% 25% 35% Big Data - Circle implies Mkt Cap YTD % Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 11
12 Big Data Firms Year to date Performance AMZN, (17.8%) YTD % MKTO, (12.5%) AZPN, (9.6%) SPLK, (0.5%) WDAY, 14.6% CRM, 15.8% EMC, 19.5% DATA, 23.1% AKAM, 33.4% VRNT, 36.5% (25%) (20%) (15%) (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 12
13 Big Data Firms Month to date Performance WDAY, (0.2%) Mth % CRM, (0.1%) MKTO, 0.5% VRNT, 1.9% AZPN, 2.3% DATA, 2.7% SPLK, 3.4% AKAM, 4.4% EMC, 4.6% AMZN, 7.3% (1%) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 13
14 Big Data Firms Week to date Performance VRNT, (0.7%) Wk % DATA, (0.1%) CRM, (0.1%) AZPN, 0.5% WDAY, 0.8% SPLK, 2.2% EMC, 3.2% MKTO, 4.6% AKAM, 4.6% AMZN, 9.3% (2%) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 14
15 Cyber Security Firm Review Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 15
16 Comparable Analysis Cyber Security Firms Consensus Review Ticker Cons. Rating Cons. PT Last Mkt Cap (M) EV (M) FFQ P/E P/E Cyber CheckPoint CHKP Buy (2.14) $77 $76.39 $14,589 $13, x 18.8x 17.3x 14.4x 14.4x 13.4x 9.2x 9.2x 8.7x 15.9x 15.6x 14.9x % prem / (disc) to median (60%) (69%) (47%) (24%) (23%) (31%) 23% 25% 55% (61%) (60%) (34%) CyberArk CYBR Buy (-) $36 $44.37 $1,312 $1, x 11.6x 9.6x % prem / (disc) to median % 58% 72% FireEye FEYE Buy (2.28) $38 $33.80 $4,898 $4, x 5.6x x % prem / (disc) to median % 7% 0% - - (7%) Fortinet Inc. FTNT Buy (2.07) $30 $27.14 $4,606 $3, x x 23.3x x 5.3x 5.3x 4.6x 23.9x 23.5x 24.3x % prem / (disc) to median 0% (25%) 16% 24% 23% 0% (29%) (28%) (17%) (41%) (40%) 7% Imperva IMPV Buy (2.08) $42 $44.43 $1,154 $1, x 5.8x 4.9x % prem / (disc) to median (21%) (21%) (12%) Juniper JNPR Buy (2.43) $23 $20.99 $9,546 $8, x 11.2x x x 14.5x - % prem / (disc) to median (72%) (79%) (66%) (57%) (57%) (62%) (72%) (71%) (64%) (64%) (63%) - KEYW Holding KEYW Buy (2.00) $17 $11.09 $417 $ x 14.2x 13.6x 8.7x 1.2x 1.2x x % prem / (disc) to median - 188% (16%) (25%) (27%) (55%) (84%) (83%) (81%) 31% 22% (17%) Palo Alto Networks PANW Buy (1.80) $112 $ $8,617 $8, x 112.4x 66.8x 52.6x 49.7x 30.6x 9.5x 9.3x 7.2x 40.4x 39.4x - % prem / (disc) to median 155% 84% 103% 178% 166% 58% 27% 26% 29% 0% 0% - Proofpoint PFPT Buy (1.67) $46 $43.86 $1,647 $1, x x 5.6x 130.5x % prem / (disc) to median % (7%) (7%) (0%) 223% 208% 41% Qualys QLYS Hold (2.50) $33 $36.63 $1,358 $1, x 76.2x 55.4x 37.3x 36.7x x 8.5x x 44.4x 32.6x % prem / (disc) to median 65% 25% 68% 97% 97% 39% 14% 15% 26% 13% 13% 43% Cyber - Avg $4,815 $4, x x 23.6x 6.9x 6.8x 5.6x 46.2x 43.8x 24. Cyber - Med $3,127 $2, x x 18.7x 19.4x 7.5x 7.3x 5.6x 40.4x 39.4x 22.7x P/E FFQ EV / EBITDA EV / EBITDA EV / EBITDA FFQ P/Rev P/Rev P/Rev FFQ Ticker Div Yield (%) 2014 YTD Rtn Qtr EBITDA Mrg Qtr EBIT Mrg Cash (% of Price) Ttl Debt / Cap Net Debt / Cap Ttl Debt / Equity EBITDA EBIT Mrg Mrg Est's Est's CheckPoint CHKP % % 0.0% (34.3%) 0.0% 58.5% 57.8% 14.0% 10.6% 6.4% 6.7% 970 $74,102 DEC CyberArk CYBR % 15.1% 14.4% 5.8% 0.0% (165.4%) 0.0% 5.9% 3.9% ,214 $142,586 DEC FireEye FEYE - (22.5%) % 0.0% (30.8%) 0.0% % 8,802 $297,498 DEC Fortinet Inc. FTNT % 10.9% 8.0% 14.3% 0.0% (101.8%) 0.0% 19.6% 17.0% 4.7% 2.3% 4.2% 4.1% 1,781 $48,335 DEC Imperva IMPV - (7.7%) % 0.0% (108.0%) 0.0% $19,747 DEC Juniper JNPR 2.0% (7.0%) 18.1% 14.0% 20.1% 17.9% (7.5%) 21.8% 24.6% 20.8% 9.5% 6.1% 6.9% - 6,741 $141,492 DEC KEYW Holding KEYW - (17.5%) 4.0% % 28.6% 17.6% 40.1% 10.6% 3.8% % 5.3% 288 $3,192 DEC Palo Alto Networks PANW % % 49.9% (32.7%) 99.6% 18.0% 15.1% % - 2,028 $224,656 JUL Proofpoint PFPT % % 72.4% (32.6%) 262.0% 0.5% % 3.1% $19, DEC Qualys QLYS % 19.1% 10.2% 8.4% 0.0% (94.8%) 0.0% 21.1% 11.9% 3.8% 2.1% 2.3% 3.1% 255 $9,330 DEC Cyber - Avg 2.0% 36.6% 13.4% 11.6% 10.8% 16.9% (59.0%) 42.3% 19.9% 18.6% 8.0% 5.3% 3.6% 4.5% 2,497 $98,076 Cyber - Med 2.0% 25.3% 15.1% 12.1% 8.9% 0.0% (33.5%) 0.0% 18.8% 15.1% 7.1% 4.2% 2.5% 4.4% 1,376 $61,219 LTM ROE LTM ROA Daily Vol (000) ($000) Vol / Day YE Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 16
17 Select Metrics Review Rev, EBITDA, FCF, FCF Yield, EPS % changes, EBITDA & EBIT Margins Ticker Rev EBITDA FCF Rev % or EBITDA Mrg Est's EBIT Mrg Est's EPS % or Cyber CheckPoint CHKP $1,588 $929 $ % 58.5% 57.8% 6.4% 10.0% CyberArk CYBR $113 $7-21.1% 5.9% 3.9% - (78.2%) FireEye FEYE $625 ($174) ($146) 47.4% Fortinet Inc. FTNT $874 $172 $ % 19.6% 17.0% 4.2% 24.7% Imperva IMPV $198 ($9) ($8) 22.1% Juniper JNPR $4,484 $1,105 $659 (2.6%) 24.6% 20.8% 6.9% 19.6% KEYW Holding KEYW $342 $36 $9 16.6% 10.6% 3.8% 2.1% - Palo Alto Networks PANW $928 $167 $ % 18.0% 15.1% 2.5% 88.6% Proofpoint PFPT $240 $1 $ % 0.5% - 0.8% - Qualys QLYS $160 $34 $ % 21.1% 11.9% 2.3% 19.4% Cyber - Avg $955 $227 $ % 19.9% 18.6% 3.6% 14.0% Cyber - Med $484 $35 $ % 18.8% 15.1% 2.5% 19.5% Rev EBITDA FCF Rev % or Juniper $4,484 Juniper $1,105 CyberArk - FireEye 47.4% CheckPoint $1,588 CheckPoint $929 CheckPoint $937 Palo Alto Networks 34.2% Palo Alto Networks $928 Fortinet Inc. $172 Juniper $659 Proofpoint 25.0% Fortinet Inc. $874 Palo Alto Networks $167 Palo Alto Networks $219 Imperva 22.1% FireEye $625 KEYW Holding $36 Fortinet Inc. $196 CyberArk 21.1% KEYW Holding $342 Qualys $34 Qualys $31 Qualys 20.6% Proofpoint $240 CyberArk $7 Proofpoint $14 KEYW Holding 16.6% Imperva $198 Proofpoint $1 KEYW Holding $9 Fortinet Inc. 15.5% Qualys $160 Imperva ($9) Imperva ($8) CheckPoint 6.6% CyberArk $113 FireEye ($174) FireEye ($146) Juniper (2.6%) Cyber - Avg $955 Cyber - Avg $227 Cyber - Avg $212 Cyber - Avg 20.7% Cyber - Med $484 Cyber - Med $35 Cyber - Med $31 Cyber - Med 20.8% EBITDA Mrg Est's EBIT Mrg Est's EPS % or FireEye - FireEye - CyberArk - FireEye - Imperva - Imperva - FireEye - Imperva - CheckPoint 58.5% Proofpoint - Imperva - KEYW Holding - Juniper 24.6% CheckPoint 57.8% Juniper 6.9% Proofpoint - Qualys 21.1% Juniper 20.8% CheckPoint 6.4% Palo Alto Networks 88.6% Fortinet Inc. 19.6% Fortinet Inc. 17.0% Fortinet Inc. 4.2% Fortinet Inc. 24.7% Palo Alto Networks 18.0% Palo Alto Networks 15.1% Palo Alto Networks 2.5% Juniper 19.6% KEYW Holding 10.6% Qualys 11.9% Qualys 2.3% Qualys 19.4% CyberArk 5.9% CyberArk 3.9% KEYW Holding 2.1% CheckPoint 10.0% Proofpoint 0.5% KEYW Holding 3.8% Proofpoint 0.8% CyberArk (78.2%) Cyber - Avg 19.9% Cyber - Avg 18.6% Cyber - Avg 3.6% Cyber - Avg 14.0% Cyber - Med 18.8% Cyber - Med 15.1% Cyber - Med 2.5% Cyber - Med 19.5% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 17
18 Free Cash Flow Metric Review Ticker Last Shrs (M) LTM FCF FFQ FCF FCF FCF LTM FFQ FFQ Cyber CheckPoint CHKP $ $3.27 $4.82 $4.90 $ x 15.9x 15.6x 14.9x 6.3% 6.4% 6.7% CyberArk CYBR $ $ x FireEye FEYE $ ($1.61) ($1.05) ($1.01) $ x (3.1%) - 4.7% Fortinet Inc. FTNT $ $1.02 $1.14 $1.15 $ x 23.9x 23.5x 24.3x 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% Imperva IMPV $ $0.07 ($0.31) ($0.30) ($0.22) (0.7%) - - Juniper JNPR $ $1.48 $1.44 $ x 14.6x 14.5x - 6.9% 6.9% - KEYW Holding KEYW $ $0.06 $0.21 $0.23 $ x 1.9% 2.1% 5.3% Palo Alto Networks PANW $ $0.67 $2.74 $ x 40.4x 39.4x - 2.5% 2.5% - Proofpoint PFPT $ ($0.06) $0.34 $0.36 $ x % 0.8% 3.1% Qualys QLYS $ $0.58 $0.81 $0.82 $ x 45.4x 44.4x 32.6x 2.2% 2.3% 3.1% Cyber - Avg 76.7x 46.2x 43.8x % 3.6% 4.5% Cyber - Med 53.2x 40.4x 39.4x 22.7x 2.2% 2.5% 4.4% CyberArk - CyberArk - FireEye - FireEye - Imperva - Imperva - Proofpoint 121. Juniper 6.9% KEYW Holding 48. CheckPoint 6.4% Qualys 44.4x Fortinet Inc. 4.2% Palo Alto Networks 39.4x Palo Alto Networks 2.5% Fortinet Inc. 23.5x Qualys 2.3% CheckPoint 15.6x KEYW Holding 2.1% Juniper 14.5x Proofpoint 0.8% Cyber - Avg 43.8x Cyber - Avg 3.6% Cyber - Med 39.4x Cyber - Med 2.5% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 18
19 Valuation Charts Cyber Security Firms Comparable Analysis P/E & EV/EBITDA 14 FFQ P/E x 12 P/E x 18.2x x 71.4x 124.4x JNPR CHKP FTNT KEYW QLYS PANW CYBR FEYE IMPV PFPT 11.5x 17.9x x 68.9x 109.7x JNPR CHKP KEYW FTNT QLYS PANW CYBR FEYE IMPV PFPT 6 FFQ EV/EBITDA x 7.2x 11.3x 13.8x x 55. JNPR KEYW CHKP FTNT QLYS PANW CYBR FEYE IMPV PFPT 6 EV/EBITDA x 7.2x 10.3x 13.6x 21.5x 29.3x 48.8x JNPR KEYW CHKP FTNT QLYS PANW CYBR FEYE IMPV PFPT 54.3x 48.6x 23.3x 21.8x 10 CY'14 P/E x 20 P/E 35x 3 25x 2 15x 1 5x 19.7x 54.4x 86.6x JNPR CHKP FTNT QLYS CYBR FEYE IMPV KEYW PANW PFPT 10.2x 16.3x 16.5x 36.6x 22.5x 36.6x JNPR KEYW CHKP FTNT QLYS PANW CYBR FEYE IMPV PFPT 4 CY'14 EV/EBITDA 7.4x 14.6x 22.5x 26.2x 37.4x JNPR CHKP KEYW FTNT QLYS CYBR FEYE IMPV PANW PFPT 7 EV/EBITDA x 8.4x 12.7x x 29.8x 58. JNPR KEYW CHKP FTNT QLYS PANW PFPT CYBR FEYE IMPV 43.6x x 22. Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 19
20 Valuation Charts Cyber Security Firms Comparable Analysis Price / Revenue & FCF Yield 1 FFQ P/Revenue 9x 8x 7x 6x 5x 4x 3x 2x 6.6x x 4.3x x 6.8x 7.5x 8.8x 8.9x 9.5x KEYW JNPR IMPV FTNT PFPT QLYS FEYE CYBR CHKP PANW 1 P/Revenue 9x 8x 7x 6x 5x 4x 3x 2x 6.4x 5.8x x 4.2x x 6.6x x 8.8x 9. KEYW JNPR IMPV FTNT PFPT QLYS FEYE CYBR CHKP PANW CY'14 FCF Yield 2.8% 0.2% 1.5% 2.0% 3.7% 5.3% 7.2% PFPT PANW QLYS FTNT CHKP JNPR CYBR FEYE IMPV KEYW FCF Yield 3.3% 14x CY'14 P/Revenue 12x 1 8x 6x 4x 2x 8x 7x 6x 5x 4x 3x 2x 7.8x x 1.9x x 7.7x 7.9x 9.3x 10.4x 10.5x 12.2x KEYW JNPR IMPV FTNT PFPT QLYS CHKP FEYE CYBR PANW 9x P/Revenue 2.8% x 3.5x 4.4x x x KEYW JNPR IMPV FTNT PFPT FEYE QLYS CYBR PANW CHKP FCF Yield 1.0% 1.9% 2.6% 2.8% 4.4% 6.7% 7.7% PFPT KEYW PANW QLYS FTNT CHKP JNPR CYBR FEYE IMPV 7.2x 4.9x 3.9% 4.5% 4.1% 0.8% 2.0% 4.2% 4.8% 5.4% 7.1% IMPV PFPT FTNT KEYW FEYE CHKP CYBR JNPR PANW QLYS Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 20
21 Valuation Charts Cyber Security Firms Comparable Analysis EBITDA Margin & EBIT Margin Last Qtr EBITDA Mrg 14.8% 18.8% 4.5% 10.9% 14.8% 15.1% 18.1% KEYW FTNT QLYS CYBR JNPR CHKP FEYE IMPV PANW PFPT EBITDA Mrg 0.5% 5.9% 10.6% 18.0% 19.6% 21.1% 24.6% 58.5% PFPT CYBR KEYW PANW FTNT QLYS JNPR CHKP FEYE IMPV Last Qtr EBIT Mrg 12.1% 8.0% 10.2% 14.0% 14.4% FTNT QLYS JNPR CYBR CHKP FEYE IMPV KEYW PANW PFPT EBIT Mrg 15.1% 3.8% 3.9% 11.9% 15.1% 17.0% 20.8% 57.8% KEYW CYBR QLYS PANW FTNT JNPR CHKP FEYE IMPV PFPT 12.7% 19.9% 11.6% 18.6% CY'14 EBITDA Mrg 18.7% 6.9% 7.0% 20.5% 13.4% 18.7% 19.0% 23.7% 58.4% KEYW CYBR PANW FTNT QLYS JNPR CHKP FEYE IMPV PFPT EBITDA Mrg 1.8% 8.0% 9.1% 14.6% 20.5% 22.7% 23.9% 25.6% 59.2% IMPV CYBR PFPT KEYW FTNT PANW QLYS JNPR CHKP FEYE CY'14 EBIT Mrg 21.0% 20.6% 21.7% 15.6% 10.6% 11.3% 15.3% 15.8% 19.3% 57.8% PANW QLYS CYBR FTNT JNPR CHKP FEYE IMPV KEYW PFPT EBIT Mrg 14.4% 1.7% 5.7% 5.7% 8.6% 14.4% 18.3% 20.0% 22.0% 58.0% IMPV CYBR PFPT KEYW QLYS FTNT PANW JNPR CHKP FEYE 17.1% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 21
22 YTD, MTD & WTD Share Performance Ticker 12/31/13 11/16/14 Mkt Cap (M) Sub-Sector YTD % Cyber CyberArk CYBR $16.00 $44.37 $1,312 Cyber 177.3% Palo Alto Networks PANW $57.47 $ $8,617 Cyber 92.8% Qualys QLYS $23.11 $36.63 $1,358 Cyber 58.5% Fortinet Inc. FTNT $19.13 $27.14 $4,606 Cyber 41.9% Proofpoint PFPT $33.17 $43.86 $1,647 Cyber 32.2% CheckPoint CHKP $64.50 $76.39 $14,589 Cyber 18.4% Juniper JNPR $22.57 $20.99 $9,546 Cyber (7.0%) Imperva IMPV $48.13 $44.43 $1,154 Cyber (7.7%) KEYW Holding KEYW $13.44 $11.09 $417 Cyber (17.5%) FireEye FEYE $43.61 $33.80 $4,898 Cyber (22.5%) Ticker 10/31/14 11/16/14 Mkt Cap (M) Sub-Sector Mth % Cyber CyberArk CYBR $35.28 $44.37 $1,312 Cyber 25.8% Qualys QLYS $32.08 $36.63 $1,358 Cyber 14.2% KEYW Holding KEYW $10.15 $11.09 $417 Cyber 9.3% Imperva IMPV $40.97 $44.43 $1,154 Cyber 8.4% Palo Alto Networks PANW $ $ $8,617 Cyber 4.8% Fortinet Inc. FTNT $26.05 $27.14 $4,606 Cyber 4.2% CheckPoint CHKP $74.25 $76.39 $14,589 Cyber 2.9% Juniper JNPR $21.07 $20.99 $9,546 Cyber (0.4%) Proofpoint PFPT $44.04 $43.86 $1,647 Cyber (0.4%) FireEye FEYE $33.99 $33.80 $4,898 Cyber (0.6%) Ticker 11/7/14 11/16/14 Mkt Cap (M) Sub-Sector Wk % Cyber CyberArk CYBR $32.71 $44.37 $1,312 Cyber 35.6% FireEye FEYE $30.62 $33.80 $4,898 Cyber 10.4% KEYW Holding KEYW $10.24 $11.09 $417 Cyber 8.3% Qualys QLYS $34.48 $36.63 $1,358 Cyber 6.2% Imperva IMPV $42.53 $44.43 $1,154 Cyber 4.5% Palo Alto Networks PANW $ $ $8,617 Cyber 3.5% CheckPoint CHKP $74.66 $76.39 $14,589 Cyber 2.3% Fortinet Inc. FTNT $27.10 $27.14 $4,606 Cyber 0.1% Proofpoint PFPT $44.00 $43.86 $1,647 Cyber (0.3%) Juniper JNPR $21.91 $20.99 $9,546 Cyber (4.2%) Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 22
23 Month % Cyber Security Firms YTD vs. MTD Changes 28% CYBR 24% 20% 16% QLYS 12% 8% KEYW IMPV 4% CHKP FTNT PANW 0% FEYE JNPR PFPT (4%) (45%) (25%) (5%) 15% 35% 55% 75% 95% 115% 135% 155% 175% Cyber - Circle implies Mkt Cap YTD % Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 23
24 Cyber Security Firms Year to date Performance FEYE, (22.5%) YTD % KEYW, (17.5%) IMPV, (7.7%) JNPR, (7.0%) CHKP, 18.4% PFPT, 32.2% FTNT, 41.9% QLYS, 58.5% PANW, 92.8% CYBR, 177.3% (50%) 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 24
25 Cyber Security Firms Month to date Performance FEYE, (0.6%) Mth % PFPT, (0.4%) JNPR, (0.4%) CHKP, 2.9% FTNT, 4.2% PANW, 4.8% IMPV, 8.4% KEYW, 9.3% QLYS, 14.2% CYBR, 25.8% (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 25
26 Cyber Security Firms Week to date Performance JNPR, (4.2%) Wk % PFPT, (0.3%) FTNT, 0.1% CHKP, 2.3% PANW, 3.5% IMPV, 4.5% QLYS, 6.2% KEYW, 8.3% FEYE, 10.4% CYBR, 35.6% (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 26
27 Universe Review Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 27
28 Universe Year to date Performance Big Data - Avg, 10.2% YTD % Universe - Avg, 23.4% Cyber - Avg, 36.6% Russell 2000 Index, 0.9% DJ A&D Index, 5.5% S&P A&D Index, 5.7% DJIA, 6.4% S&P 500 Index, 10.4% NASDAQ Index, 12.3% S&P IT Index, 17.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 28
29 Universe Month to date Performance Big Data - Avg, 2.7% Mth % Universe - Avg, 4.7% Cyber - Avg, 6.8% Russell 2000 Index, 0.0% S&P A&D Index, 0.8% DJ A&D Index, 0.8% S&P 500 Index, 1.1% NASDAQ Index, 1.2% DJIA, 1.4% S&P IT Index, 2.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 29
30 Universe Week to date Performance Big Data - Avg, 2.4% Wk % Universe - Avg, 4.5% Cyber - Avg, 6.6% Russell 2000 Index, 0.0% DJIA, 0.3% S&P 500 Index, 0.4% S&P A&D Index, 0.5% DJ A&D Index, 0.6% NASDAQ Index, 1.2% S&P IT Index, 1.8% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Silverline Group LLC PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL 30
31
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