OCEANAGOLD CORP (OGC-T) Mineral Resources / Metals & Mining / Gold

Transcription

1 Last Close 4.17 (CAD) Avg Daily Vol 2.1M 52-Week High 5.56 Trailing PE 19.6 Annual Div 0.05 ROE -- LTG Forecast 27.0% 1-Mo Return 23.0% January 20, 2017 TORONTO Exchange Market Cap 2.5B 52-Week Low 2.62 Forward PE 13.7 Dividend Yield 1.3% Annual Rev -- Inst Own 56.0% 3-Mo Return -3.9% AVERAGE SCORE requirements to calculate a score. Score Averages Metals & Mining Group: 5.2 Mid Market Cap: 6.6 Mineral Resources Sector: 5.2 TSX Comp Index: 6.9 Average Score Trend (4-Week Moving Avg) Peers -6M -3M -1M -1W Current 1Y Trend HIGHLIGHTS JAN-2014 JAN-2015 JAN- JAN-2017 THOMSON REUTERS I/B/E/S MEAN - The scores are only calculated for the primary security for a company and may be available for ticker symbol OGC-AU. Buy Mean recommendation from all analysts covering 6 Analysts the company on a standardized 5-point scale. Sell Reduce Hold Buy Strong Buy PRICE AND VOLUME CHARTS 1-Year Return: 60.4% 5-Year Return: 66.8% BUSINESS SUMMARY OceanaGold Corporation is an Australia-based gold mining and exploration company. The Company is engaged in the production of gold. The Company operates through three segments: New Zealand, the Philippines and the USA. Its asset portfolio consists of the Macraes Operations (Macraes), which include the operating Macraes open pit gold mines and Frasers underground gold mine; the Didipio Operations (Didipio), which includes an open pit that commenced commercial production, and an underground mine; the Waihi Gold Mine Operation (Waihi), which includes the Martha open pit and Correnso underground gold mine, and the Haile Gold Mine Project (Haile). Macraes is located approximately 60 kilometers north of Dunedin and over 30 kilometers to the northwest of Palmerston in the Otago Region of the South Island, New Zealand. The Didipio is located in the north of Luzon Island, approximately 270 kilometers north-northeast of Manila, in the Philippines. Page 1 of 11

2 INDICATOR COMPONENTS The AVERAGE SCORE combines the quantitative analysis of five widely-used investment decision making tools: Earnings, Fundamental, Relative Valuation, Risk, and Price Momentum. A simple average of the underlying component ratings is normally distributed to rank stocks on a 1-10 scale (10 being awarded to the most favorable). These factors may be evaluated differently using alternative methodologies and the importance of individual factors varies across industries, market capitalization and investment styles. Additional criteria should always by used to evaluate a stock. Earnings Fundamental Relative Valuation Risk Price Momentum PEER ANALYSIS Page 2 of 11

3 EARNINGS requirements to calculate a score for this component. Currency in USD Earnings Score Averages Metals & Mining Group: 5.6 Mid Market Cap: 5.9 Mineral Resources Sector: 5.6 TSX Comp Index: 6.2 Earnings Score Trend (4-Week Moving Avg) Peers -6M -3M -1M -1W Current 1Y Trend JAN-2014 JAN-2015 JAN- JAN-2017 EARNINGS INDICATORS Earnings Surprises (33.3% weight) Estimate Revisions (33.3% weight) Recommendation Changes (33.3% weight) OGC OGC OGC HIGHLIGHTS Last 4 Quarters Last 4 Weeks Last 120 Days # Surprises (> 2%) 2 # Up Revisions 0 # Broker Upgrades 2 # Surprises (< -2%) 2 # Down Revisions 0 # Broker Downgrades 0 # In-Line Surprises (within 2%) 0 Avg Up Revisions 0.0% Avg Surprise -5.1% Avg Down Revisions 0.0% - OGC's current quarter consensus estimate has remained relatively unchanged over the past 90 days at 0.05, while estimates within its industry have moved an average of -13.0% during the same time period. - During the past four weeks, analysts covering OGC have made no upward or downward EPS estimate revisions for the current quarter. PRICE TARGET The chart indicates where analysts predict the stock price will be within the next 12 months, as compared to the current price HIGH MEAN LOW 2.00 Current Price Price Target 12-Month Price Target Mean 4.07 High 4.90 Low 2.83 Target vs. Current 30.1% # of Analysts 10 Page 3 of 11

4 EARNINGS PER SHARE Actuals Estimates Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated by dividing a company's earnings by the number of shares outstanding. Analysts tend to interpret a pattern of increasing earnings as a sign of strength and flat or falling earnings as a sign of weakness HIGH MEAN LOW Quarterly Mean High Low # of Analysts 9 6 The charts provide a comparison between a company's actual and estimated EPS, including the high and low forecasts Actuals Estimates HIGH MEAN LOW Annual 2017 Mean High Low # of Analysts MEAN ESTIMATE TREND ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS Q Q Y Y 2017 Price Target Current Days Ago Days Ago % Change (90 Days) 2.2% -26.2% -5.7% -16.7% -5.3% EARNINGS SURPRISES Current Fiscal Year End: Next Expected Report Date: 10/27/16 Comparing a company's actual earnings to the mean expectation of analysts results in a difference referred to as a 'positive' or 'negative' surprise. Research has shown that when a company reports a surprise, it is often followed by more of the same surprise type. Surprise Summary (Last 12 Quarters) Surprise Type Amount Percent Quarters (> 2%) % Quarters (< -2%) % In-Line Quarters (within 2%) 0 -- Surprise Type Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S Mean: Buy (6 Analysts) Strong Buy Buy Hold Reduce Sell Announce Date Surprise Detail (Last 6 Periods) Period End Date 2 Actual EPS Mean EPS 4 Surprise (%) 07/28/16 06/30/ % 04/28/16 03/31/ % 02/18/16 12/31/ % 10/29/15 09/30/ % 07/30/15 06/30/ % 04/29/15 03/31/ % ANNUAL REVENUE A pattern of increasing sales in conjunction with a rising EPS may influence a buy recommendation, while flat or falling sales and faltering earnings may explain a sell recommendation. A rising EPS with flat or falling sales may result from increased cost efficiency and margins, rather than market expansion. This chart shows the sales forecast trend of all analysts and the highest and lowest projections for the current and next fiscal year. Actuals Estimates 1.0B 900.0M 800.0M HIGH MEAN 700.0M 600.0M 508.0M 500.0M LOW Mean 624.7M 788.4M High 662.0M 883.4M Low 575.0M 575.0M Forecasted Growth 23.0% 55.2% # of Analysts Page 4 of 11

5 FUNDAMENTAL requirements to calculate a score for this component. Fundamental Score Averages Metals & Mining Group: 4.9 Mid Market Cap: 7.2 Mineral Resources Sector: 4.9 TSX Comp Index: 7.2 Fundamental Score Trend Peers Current 3Y Trend FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS Profitability Debt Earnings Quality Dividend OGC OGC OGC OGC HIGHLIGHTS Revenue Growth -- For year over year Gross Margin -- Return On Equity -- Net Margin -- Current Ratio -- For year over year Debt-to-Capital -- Interest Funding -- Interest Coverage -- - There is no significant fundamental data for this company. Days Sales In Inv. -- For period ending -- Days Sales In Rec. -- For period ending -- Div. Growth Rate -- For year over year Dividend Funding -- Dividend Coverage -- Current Div. Yield 1.3% Page 5 of 11

6 RELATIVE VALUATION requirements to calculate a score for this component. Relative Valuation Score Averages Metals & Mining Group: 5.2 Mid Market Cap: 4.9 Mineral Resources Sector: 5.2 TSX Comp Index: 4.8 Relative Valuation Score Trend (4-Week Moving Avg) Peers -6M -3M -1M -1W Current 1Y Trend JAN-2014 JAN-2015 JAN- JAN-2017 RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS Forward PEG (50% weight) Trailing PE Forward PE OGC OGC OGC Price to Sales Yr Average 1.9 Rel. to 5-Yr Avg. 74% Premium TSX Comp Index 1.7 Rel. to TSX Comp 92% Premium Trailing PE Yr Average 17.2 Rel. to 5-Yr Avg. 14% Premium TSX Comp Index 39.1 Rel. to TSX Comp 50% Discount Forward PE Yr Average 13.1 Rel. to 5-Yr Avg. 5% Premium TSX Comp Index 17.9 Rel. to TSX Comp 24% Discount HIGHLIGHTS - OGC's Price to Sales ratio of 3.2 represents a 74% Premium to its 5- year average of OGC's Trailing P/E of 19.6 represents a 14% Premium to its 5-year average of OGC's Price to Sales ratio of 3.2 represents a 74% Premium to its 5- year average of 1.9. Page 6 of 11

7 PRICE TO SALES The most recent week's close price divided by the revenue per share Yr Average 2012 FORWARD PE 2013 Price to Sales: Year Average: 1.9 TSX Comp Index Average: 1.7 Metals & Mining Group Average: The most recent week's close price divided by the sum of the four upcoming quarterly consensus estimates Yr Average Forward PE: Year Average: 13.1 TSX Comp Index Average: 17.9 Metals & Mining Group Average: TRAILING PE The most recent week's close price divided by the sum of the four most recently reported quarterly earnings. > Yr Average 2012 FORWARD PEG 2013 Trailing PE: Year Average: 17.2 TSX Comp Index Average: 39.1 Metals & Mining Group Average: The Forward P/E divided by the five-year forecasted growth rate JAN MAR Forward PEG: Year Average: -- TSX Comp Index Average: 1.5 Metals & Mining Group Average: 3.5 MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN 2017 Page 7 of 11

8 RISK requirements to calculate a score for this component. Risk Score Averages Metals & Mining Group: 4.1 Mid Market Cap: 8.5 Mineral Resources Sector: 4.1 TSX Comp Index: 8.7 Risk Score Trend (4-Week Moving Avg) Peers -6M -3M -1M -1W Current 1Y Trend JAN-2014 JAN-2015 JAN- JAN-2017 RISK INDICATORS Magnitude Of Returns Volatility Beta (1-year) Correlation OGC OGC OGC OGC Daily Returns (Last 90 Days) Best 9.1% Worst -9.2% Monthly Returns (Last 60 Months) Best 35.9% Worst -27.8% HIGHLIGHTS Standard Deviation Last 90 Days 3.29 Last 60 Months Intra-Day Swing (Last 90 Days) Average 4.5% Largest 8.7% - On days when the market is up, OGC tends to perform in-line with the S&P/TSX COMPOSITE index. On days when the market is down, the shares generally decrease by less than the index. - In the short term, OGC has shown average correlation (>= 0.2 and < 0.4) with the S&P/TSX COMPOSITE index. The stock has, however, shown high correlation (>= 0.4) with the market in the long term. - Over the last 90 days, OGC shares have been more volatile than the overall market, as the stock's daily price fluctuations have exceeded that of 85% of S&P/TSX COMPOSITE index firms. Beta vs. TSX Comp 0.81 Days Only 0.90 Days Only 0.20 Beta vs. Group 1.14 Days Only 1.06 Days Only 1.10 RISK ANALYSIS Peers Best Daily Return Worst Daily Return Last 90 Days # Days Up Correlation vs. TSX Comp Last 90 Days 27% Last 60 Months 51% Correlation vs. Group Last 90 Days 65% Last 60 Months 57% # Days Down Largest Intra-Day Swing Last 60 Months Best Monthly Return Worst Monthly Return OGC 9.1% -9.2% % 35.9% -27.8% TSX Comp 1.2% -1.3% % 4.9% -6.3% Page 8 of 11

9 PRICE MOMENTUM requirements to calculate a score for this component. Currency in CAD Price Momentum Score Averages Metals & Mining Group: 6.1 Mid Market Cap: 5.0 Mineral Resources Sector: 6.0 TSX Comp Index: 5.2 Price Momentum Score Trend (4-Week Moving Avg) Peers -6M -3M -1M -1W Current 1Y Trend JAN-2014 JAN-2015 JAN- JAN-2017 PRICE MOMENTUM INDICATORS Relative Strength (70% weight) Seasonality (30% weight) OGC OGC Relative Strength Indicator (Scale from 1 to 100) OGC Industry Avg Last 1 Month Last 3 Months Last 6 Months PRICE PERFORMANCE Daily close prices are used to calculate the performance of the stock as compared to a relevant index over five time periods. 1-Week -0.3% 2% OGC TSX Mid Average Monthly Return (Last 10 Years) JAN FEB MAR Company Avg 24.7% 14.5% 4.3% Industry Avg 9.3% 8.3% -0.2% Industry Rank 8 of 73 3 of of 72 OGC TSX Mid Close Price (01/20/17) Week High Week Low Month 3-Month YTD -3.9% -0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 6.7% 23% - On 01/20/17, OGC closed at 4.17, 25.0% below its 52-week high and 59.2% above its 52-week low. - OGC shares are currently trading 8.6% above their 50-day moving average of 3.84, and 1.9% below their 200-day moving average of The S&P/TSX MID CAP index is currently 2.0% below its 52- week high and 25.8% above its 52-week low. 1-Year 27.8% 60.4% Page 9 of 11

10 TIPS The Thomson Reuters Stock Report is a comprehensive, company-specific analysis that includes a proprietary Stock Rating along with underlying component indicators and supportive data elements. The report is updated daily, although some of the data elements and the ratings are updated weekly. Average Score The Average Score combines a quantitative analysis of five widely-used investment decision making tools - Earnings, Fundamental, Relative Valuation, Risk, and Price Momentum. First, a simple average of the five underlying component ratings is calculated. Then, a normal distribution is used to rank each stock across the market on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most favorable. A score of 8 to 10 is considered positive, 4 to 7 is neutral, and 1 to 3 is negative. These five factors may be evaluated differently using alternative methodologies, and the importance of individual factors varies across industry groups, market capitalization and investment styles. Additional criteria should always be used to evaluate a stock. A company must have sufficient data available for at least three of the five component indicators in order to receive an overall Average Score. Approximately 85% of the stocks within the coverage universe meet the criteria to generate a score. Indicator Components The five indicators that comprise the stock rating are displayed. Like the stock rating, the component rating scale is 1 to 10, with 10 being best. A company will receive an NR for No Rating if the required data elements or criteria are not met. A detailed section for each component is included in the report. Indicator Trends Within each component section, historical score trends are displayed, typically using a 4-week moving average over a timeframe of the past three years. The dotted orange line indicates the average of the scores over those three years. The most recent occurrences of the best and worst scores are also displayed on the chart in grey boxes to put the current score into historical context. Next to the trend chart for the company, current score averages are included, along with peer company comparisons of values from 6 months ago, 3 months ago, 1 month ago, the most recent value from 1 week ago, and the current score. The four closest industry peers are presented based on similar market capitalization. Peer Analysis The Thomson Reuters Business Classification (TRBC) system is used for industry comparisons. It is designed to track and display the primary business of a corporation by grouping together correlated companies that offer products and services into similar end markets. The system includes 10 Economic Sectors, 28 Business Sectors, 54 Industry Groups, and 136 Industries. The Peer Analysis section of the report compares the company to its ten closest peers. The peers are selected from the industry based on similar market capitalization. The peer listing may have fewer than ten companies if there are fewer than ten companies within that industry classification. Highlights The Thomson Reuters proprietary automated text-generation system creates highlights summarizing the most noteworthy data. The bullets will vary by company and will change from week to week as different criteria are met. Earnings The Earnings Rating is based on a combination of three factors: earnings surprise, estimate revision, and recommendation changes. Each factor is equally weighted. Then, equal deciles are used to rank each stock across the market on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most favorable. A stock needs to have at least two of the three earnings factors in order to receive a score. Earnings Surprises - The number of positive and negative surprises within the last 4 periods (quarters or years). Estimate Revisions - The number of up and down revisions and the average percentage change of those revisions within a 4 week period. Recommendation Changes - The number of broker upgrades and downgrades in the last 120 days. Price Target The price target is based on the predictions of analysts covering the stock and shows the high, low and mean price expected within the next 12 months. Earnings Per Share The quarterly and annual earnings per share are presented when available, along with the mean, high and low. Quarterly data is displayed for the past 4 quarters (actual) and the next 2 quarters (estimated). Annual data is displayed for the past 2 years (actual) and the next 2 years (estimated). Mean Estimate Trend The mean estimates show how the consensus has changed over the past 30 days and 90 days for the upcoming two quarters (when available) and two years. The percentage change is calculated for the company as a means for comparison by measuring the difference between the current consensus estimate and that of 90 days ago. Analyst Recommendations The I/B/E/S Mean is the mean recommendation of all analysts covering the stock, as provided by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (Institutional Brokers Estimate System). The recommendations are presented on a five-point standardized scale: strong buy, buy, hold, reduce, and sell. Earnings Surprises The surprise summary includes the total number of time periods (and percentage) in the last 12 quarters (quarterly) or last 4 years (annual) in which earnings surprises were positive, negative, or in-line. In order to be recognized as a positive or negative surprise, the percent must be greater than 2% above or 2% below the consensus, respectively. The surprise detail section includes a listing of the company's quarterly earnings reported for the most recent 6 periods (quarters or years). The consensus analyst estimate is provided to determine if the actual earnings report represented a positive surprise, negative surprise, or in-line result. Fundamental The Fundamental Rating is based on a combination of four fundamental component factors: profitability, debt, earnings quality, and dividend. Companies that do not pay a dividend are not penalized. Each factor is equally weighted. Then, equal deciles are used to rank each stock across the market on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most favorable. A stock needs to have at least three of the four fundamental factors present in order to receive a score. Profitability is comprised of four data elements. - Revenue Growth: (Net Sales Previous Net Sales) / Previous Net Sales - Gross Margin: Gross Profit / Net Sales - Return on Equity: Net Income / Total Equity - Net Margin: Net Profit / Net Sales Debt is comprised of four data elements. - Current Ratio: Current Assets / Current Liabilities - Debt-to-Capital: Total Debt / Total Capital - Interest Funding: Interest Expense / Operating Cash Flow - Interest Coverage: (Pre-Tax Income + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense Earnings Quality is comprised of two data elements. - Days Sales in Inventory: 365 / (Cost of Goods Sold / Inventory) - Days Sales in Receivables: 365 / (Net Sales (Revenues) / Receivables) Dividend is comprised of four data elements. The company must have a current dividend yield. - Dividend Growth Rate: (Dividends per Share Previous Dividends per Share) / Previous Dividends per Share - Dividend Funding: Dividends / Operating Cash Flow - Dividend Coverage: (Pre-Tax Income + Interest Expense) / (Interest Expense + Dividends) - Dividend Yield: Annual Dividends per Share / Current Market Price per Share Indicator Trend The fundamental indicator trend displays either quarterly scores over the past three years or annual scores over the past six years, depending on the reporting periods for the country. The best and worst scores can be easily determined from the values shown on the chart for each quarter or year. Relative Valuation The Relative Valuation Rating is based on a combination of three component factors: Price to Sales (50% weight), Trailing P/E, and Forward P/E. After the weightings are considered to combine individual factors, equal deciles are used to rank each stock across the market on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most favorable. These common valuation metrics are evaluated against the overall market, the index, and the company's own historic 5-year averages. A stock needs to have at least one of the three relative valuation factors in order to receive a score. Price to Sales: Close Price / (Sales for 4 Quarters or 1 Year / Shares Outstanding) Trailing P/E: Close Price / Most Recent 4 Quarters or 1 Year of Earnings Forward P/E: Close Price / Upcoming 4 Quarters or 1 Year of Earnings Valuation Averages values are excluded when calculating the averages. A maximum value of 100 is placed on Trailing P/E and Forward P/E, a maximum value of 5 is placed on Forward PEG, and a maximum value of 20 is placed on Price to Sales when calculating the averages. Higher values are rounded down to the maximum for the averages. Page 10 of 11

11 Valuation Multiples The valuation multiples provide the Trailing P/E, Forward P/E, Forward PEG, and Price to Sales for the company and the S&P 500 index average. In addition, a comparison of the current company s values to its 5-year average and an industry average are presented. A discount occurs when the company s ratio is valued more favorably (lower) than that to which it is compared. Risk The Risk Rating displays stocks on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being awarded to the least risky stocks. It is derived by looking at a series of long-term (5-year) and short-term (90-day) stock performance measures including volatility, magnitude of returns, beta, and correlation. Each factor is equally weighted. Then, equal deciles are used to rank each stock across the market. A stock needs to have at least two of the four risk factors in order to receive a score. Magnitude of Returns The best / worst daily returns in the past 90 days and the best / worst monthly returns in the past 60 months. Volatility The standard deviation of the stock price over the last 90 days and last 60 months, along with the average and largest intra-day stock swing. Beta Measures the tendency of a security s returns to respond to swings in the market, based on the beta of the company versus the relevant index. Correlation Determines how closely the returns of the stock and the relevant index move together, measured over the last 90 days and last 60 months. Risk Analysis Price analysis for the company and the relevant index is provided over two time periods. Daily analysis is provided for the last 90 days, whereas monthly statistics are used for the last 60 months. Price Momentum The Price Momentum Rating is based on a combination of two technical performance factors: relative strength (70% weight) and seasonality (30% weight). After the weightings are considered to combine individual factors, equal deciles are used to rank each stock across the market on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most favorable. A stock needs to have data for the relative strength factor in order to receive a score. Relative Strength The relative strength of the company for the last 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months on a scale of 1 to 100. Seasonality The average monthly return (price performance) for the current month and next 2 months for the company and industry, over the past 10 years. A lower industry rank indicates a higher return. Price Performance Daily close prices are used to calculate the price performance of the stock. The performance of the relevant index is also displayed as a means of comparison. DISCLAIMER Thomson Reuters content ( TR Content ) is the intellectual property of Thomson Reuters or its third party content providers. The copying, republication or redistribution of TR Content, including by framing or similar means is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. The TR content in this report does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities of any kind or constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All information in this report is assumed to be accurate to the best of our ability. Thomson Reuters excludes all liability, to the maximum extent permitted by law, for any inaccuracies in the TR Content or for the consequences of your reliance on the TR Content. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor when making an investment decision. Page 11 of 11