ASEAN in the Global Investment Landscape: A Perspective from OECD Countries. Andrea Goldstein (with Misuzu Otsuka & Stephen Thomsen)

Transcription

1 ASEAN in the Global Investment Landscape: A Perspective from OECD Countries Andrea Goldstein (with Misuzu Otsuka & Stephen Thomsen)

2 Structure of the presentation 1. OECD FDI in ASEAN balance of payments 2. OECD FDI in ASEAN activity data 3. OECD FDI in ASEAN the auto industry 4. ASEAN FDI in OECD a brief overview

3 FDI Inflows to ASEAN 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 FDI inflows from OECD into ASEAN account for 45% of total FDI inflows into ASEAN. 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, OECD FDI flows to ASEAN Non-OECD FDI flows to ASEAN

4 FDI Outflows from OECD by Region 40, , , , , , , , ASEAN China OECD ,200, ,000, , , , ,

5 FDI Outflows from OECD by Region (Share) 7% 6% 5% OECD 100% 90% 80% 70% 4% 3% 2% ASEAN 60% 50% 40% 30% 1% 0% CHINA % 10% 0%

6 12,000,000 Investment Positions of OECD Countries by Region 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000, ,000,000 - Total in OECD in ASEAN in China

7 Distribution of Investment Positions of OECD countries 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Rest of the World China ASEAN OECD 30% 20% 10% 0%

8 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Distribution of Investment Positions of OECD countries in ASEAN OECD Europe OECD North America OECD Asia and Pacific

9 Top 10 OECD Investors in ASEAN Canada Australia UK France Korea Germany Neterlands Swiss Japan US

10 20 US FDI Flows (USD billion) ASEAN China, India Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce

11 Japan FDI Flows (USD billion) ASEAN China and India

12 OECD Investors with highest ASEAN exposure 25% 20% 15% 10% Japan Korea Norway 5% New Zealand 0% Australia

13 Distribution of OECD Investors FDI Stock across ASEAN Vietnam 3% Cambodia Myammar Laos Brunei Philippines 6% Malaysia 11% Indonesia 13% Singapore 54% Thailand 13%

14 OECD Investors Share of FDI Stock in Individual ASEAN Economies ASEAN Brunei Myammar Laos Vietnam Cambodia Thailand Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Philippines 0.4% 4.1% 9.3% 21.2% 25.6% 50.4% 46.0% 48.4% 53.8% 62.6% 95.3%

15 Structure of the presentation 1. OECD FDI in ASEAN balance of payments 2. OECD FDI in ASEAN activity data 3. OECD FDI in ASEAN the auto industry 4. ASEAN FDI in OECD a brief overview

16 900 US MNE Employment in Emerging Asia (majority-owned, non-bank affiliates; thousands) ASEAN China India Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce

17 400 US MNEs Employment in ASEAN (thousands) Singapore, Malaysia Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce

18 100% 90% US MNEs in ASEAN are focusing on the domestic and regional markets (distribution of sales of majority-owned, non-bank affiliates) To US 80% 70% 60% 50% Other 40% 30% 20% 10% Local 0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce

19 Japan MNEs Employment in Emerging Asia (Thousands) 1,600 1,400 ASEAN4 China NIES4 1,200 1,

20 100% Japanese MNEs in ASEAN more likely to sell to third markets 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% To Third Market To Local To Japan 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Asia China ASEAN4 ASEAN10 NIES3 North America Europe

21 Japanese MNEs in ASEAN more likely to source from host market 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% From Third Market From Local From Japan 20% 10% 0% Total Asia China ASEAN4 ASEAN10 NIES3 North America Europe

22 ASEAN5 in the Global Business Geography of Selected EU Investors By Sales By Jobs Germany Finland Sweden Belgium Italy OECD elaboration on Eurostat data

23 Selected EU Investors in ASEAN5: Distribution of Sales by Nationality Germany Sweden Finland Italy Belgium OECD elaboration on Eurostat data

24 Selected EU Investors in ASEAN5: Distribution of Sales by Country ID MY PH SG TH OECD elaboration on Eurostat data

25 Selected EU Investors Business Activity in Individual ASEAN Countries Ranked by Sales OECD elaboration on Eurostat data

26 US MNEs: ASEAN s Contribution to Global Business Prospects Regional Indonesia Malaysia The Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Source: American Chambers of Commerce, ASEAN Regional Business Outlook Survey

27 US MNEs: ASEAN Profits Expectations Regional Indonesia Malaysia The Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Source: American Chambers of Commerce, ASEAN Regional Business Outlook Survey

28 Local Business Environment Factors, from 2006 to 2010 Indonesia Malaysia The Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Infrastructure X X X Labor costs was X Skilled labor was X was X Office rent was X was X Housing cost was X X Governance X (worse) was X was X was X X Corruption X X X X X Protectionism X X was X X X Taxes X X was X X Security X (was ) Politics was was X was X Incentives X (worse) was X Regionalism Logistics X US friendliness Source: American Chambers of Commerce, ASEAN Regional Business Outlook Survey

29 Structure of the presentation 1. OECD FDI in ASEAN balance of payments 2. OECD FDI in ASEAN activity data 3. OECD FDI in ASEAN the auto industry 4. ASEAN FDI in OECD a brief overview

30 Why the auto industry? key sector for most of the world s large economies 10 million jobs directly (5% of global manufacturing employment) another 50 million indirectly source of innovations that have radically transformed many manufacturing processes Production offshoring from OECD to a select group of emerging economies access to large domestic markets lower production costs proximity to important export markets

31 Car production in ASEAN ID MY PH TH VN ASEAN

32 Car production in ASEAN: Japanese vs. US manufacturers TOTAL JP TOTAL US

33 Major car manufacturers production in ASEAN TOYOTA MITSUBISHI DAIHATSU ISUZU HONDA MAZDA GM SUZUKI PROTON NISSAN

34 Japanese and US car manufacturers: relative car production in ASEAN and China JP US

35 Structure of the presentation 1. OECD FDI in ASEAN balance of payments 2. OECD FDI in ASEAN activity data 3. OECD FDI in ASEAN the auto industry 4. ASEAN FDI in OECD a brief overview

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37 Inward Investment Positions in OECD Countries 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 from Non-OECD from OECD 2,000 1,

38 ASEAN and China Shares in Total Investment Positions from Non-OECD Sources 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% ASEAN Share China Share 5.0% 0.0%

39 Top 10 OECD Recipient of ASEAN Investment Germany Netherlands Norway New Zealand France Korea Japan Australia US UK ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

40 Thanks for your attention!

41 35 US Imports Shipped by US MNEs in Asia (USD billion) 30 ASEAN China, India Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce

42 35 EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES FROM US MNEs IN ASEAN (majority-owned, non-bank affiliates; USD billion) 30 Singapore Malaysia Thailand Other ASEAN* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce

43 Japanese MNEs investing locally (JPY billion) China ASEAN