Banks and Cross-Border Capital Flows: Policy Challenges and Regulatory Responses
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1 Banks and Cross-Border Capital Flows: Policy Challenges and Regulatory Responses Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin Policy Institute, 27th September 2012 Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin () CIEPR Report 2012 Policy Institute, 27th September / 10
2 Introduction CIEPR? Banks Financial Globalisation Analysis Policy Reforms Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin () CIEPR Report 2012 Policy Institute, 27th September / 10
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4 The First Best Banks play a vital role in modern economies (But regulation needed, to avoid runs ) Financial globalisation - improves e ciency of capital allocation; smooths consumption; risk diversi cation (Financial openness opposed by vested interests) Financial development and nancial integration highly desirable Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin () CIEPR Report 2012 Policy Institute, 27th September / 10
5 Real-World Distortions Banks behave procyclically - destabilising Capital in ows procyclical also Equity/FDI in ows - risk transferred to foreign investors Debt in ows - risk carried domestically Banks the major intermediaries of cross-border debt ows Interaction of bank procyclicality and debt ow procyclicality magni es nancial instability, macroeconomic instability, scal instability Requires major regulatory reforms to manage ampli ed risks Problem: global capital ows but national regulatory systems (Euro area?) Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin () CIEPR Report 2012 Policy Institute, 27th September / 10
6 Analytics of Cross-Border Capital Flows and Banking Gross Flows versus Net Flows Traditional emphasis on aggregate net ows (current account imbalances) Gross ows matter (especially debt in ows/out ows) Procyclical Behavior of Banks and Asset Price Ampli cation Funding Models and Wholesale Funding Markets Cross-Border Banking Groups: Organizational Structure Valuation E ects, Dollar Funding and Flight to Safety Capital Flows and the Exhange Rate Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin () CIEPR Report 2012 Policy Institute, 27th September / 10
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20 Global Banking: Regulatory Response Data sharing Globally-coordinated nancial regulation Globally-coordinated crisis resolution (ex ante loss sharing plan) [Global monetary policy coordination] Negotiations on global banking reform - national interests versus global common good Second Best Approach - reform of national regulations; capital ow management Euro area - banking union feasible? Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin () CIEPR Report 2012 Policy Institute, 27th September / 10
21 Euro Area: Special Features Common central bank Absence of currency risk, underestimation of national nancial stability risks: highly procyclical pattern of cross-border debt ows Diabolic loop between national banking systems and national sovereigns Two options: Banking union - common supervision; common deposit insurance; common resolution fund Tight national nancial regulation Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin () CIEPR Report 2012 Policy Institute, 27th September / 10
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23 Macro-Prudential Regulation of Banks Systemic View Countercyclical capital requirements / leverage ratios Bail in bonds Bank assets Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio; debt-to-income (DTI) ratio Credit/GDP ratio Bank liabilities Levies on non-core liabilities (short-term wholesale funding) Subsidiaries versus branches Controls on capital in ows? on capital out ows? Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin () CIEPR Report 2012 Policy Institute, 27th September / 10
24 Macro-Prudential Regulation of Banks Systemic View Countercyclical capital requirements / leverage ratios Bail in bonds Bank assets Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio; debt-to-income (DTI) ratio Credit/GDP ratio Bank liabilities Levies on non-core liabilities (short-term wholesale funding) Subsidiaries versus branches Controls on capital in ows? on capital out ows? Political economy issues Tactical controls versus long-term controls Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin () CIEPR Report 2012 Policy Institute, 27th September / 10
25 Conclusions Policy challenge: reap bene ts from cross-border capital ows, while guarding against nancial stability risks Embed analysis of current account imbalances inside wider perspective on full matrix of cross-border capital ows International balance sheet analysis, as well as ow analysis Promote equity nancing over debt nancing Tighter bank regulation at national and international levels Euro Area: banking union? Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin () CIEPR Report 2012 Policy Institute, 27th September / 10
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