Cattle-Beef and General Market Outlook
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1 Cattle-Beef and General Market Outlook Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Colorado Farm show Greeley, Colorado January,
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3 The Economy Is Consumer Spending (C) Business Investment (I) Government Spending & Investment (G) Net Exports or Exports less Imports (X M) Total Economic Output (Y) Is Y = C + I + G + (X M) 3
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7 1/26/2015 Clear picture of future Fed actions on interest rates. Last year, it said we would be at 0.50% by now. Federal funds rate: Zero now. 50:50 will be 0.25% Jun Will be 0.25% by Aug Will be 0.5% by Jan
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11 Weekly S&P 500 Index Contract 11
12 Economic Outlook Summary Consumer Spending solid & improving income. Business Investment last category to improve. Government Spending & Investment reductions in all categories. Net Exports okay Fewer domestic concerns & more international exception is energy Weekly Live Cattle Contract This market has found a top trading range of $ /cwt. $170 12
13 Weekly Feeder Cattle Contract This market has found a top trading range of $???-242/cwt. $240 Cattle Outlook Fed cattle market has been strong: Domestic demand is the reason. International demand and trade less so Competing meats? Feeder cattle and calf prices were as good as they are going to get during fall 2014: Modest continued beef cow liquidation. But evidence of herd rebuilding. 13
14 Net Present Values of Bred Heifers Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 14
15 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Fourth Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX First Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 15
16 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Second Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Third Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 16
17 Cents Per Pound WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICES Boneless, Light, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS M-P-21 01/20/15 Cents Per Pound 750 WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICES Boneless 0x1, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS 01/20/15 17
18 Cents Per Pound WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS 01/20/15 WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES Pounds, Weekly Cents Per Pound JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS M-P-22 01/20/15 18
19 Cents Per Pound WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 90% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS M-P-24 01/20/15 Cents Per Pound WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES ¼ Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS M-P-28 01/20/15 19
20 Cattle & Beef Going Forward? Strength of domestic & international demand are the cause of strong & weak cattle prices. Multiple years of drought impacting supplies & market dynamics. Now is the result of herd expansion & return to more normal feeding costs. Will be pressured by pork & poultry prices beef will lose market share. Tough times for single species margin operations. As good as it gets for cow calf operations MT 6 US EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep. Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA APHIS 01/09/15 20
21 1000 MT 25 TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Data Source: USDA FAS 01/09/ MT 30 TOTAL US EXPORTS OF PORK MUSCLE CUTS Weekly Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Data Source: USDA FAS 01/09/15 21
22 $ Per Cwt. 280 BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice Lbs., Carcass, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS C-P-62 01/20/15 $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS 01/20/15 22
23 $ Per Cwt. 260 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-49 01/20/15 $ Per Cwt. 370 MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-49A 01/20/15 23
24 $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85 90% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA AMS C-P-35 01/20/15 Pounds 1350 LIVE WEIGHT STEER AND HEIFER Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Area, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-26 01/09/15 24
25 Thou. Head 90 BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-34 01/09/15 Thou. Head 75 DAIRY COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-35 01/09/15 25
26 Mil. Head 50 JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-02A 09/05/14 PERCENT CHANGE IN CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., January Data Source: USDA-NASS, Analysis by LMIC C-N-48 09/05/14 26
27 Mil. Head CALF CROP July Estimates, U.S., Annual 2014 = 33.6 Million Head -1 Percent Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-18B 09/05/14 Mil. Head 7.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S % Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-38 09/05/14 27
28 $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-66 12/19/14 Mil. Head 12 CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-10 01/23/15 28
29 Mil. Head 2.5 FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2008/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-08 01/23/15 Mil. Head 2.1 FED CATTLE MARKETINGS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2008/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-M-11 01/23/15 29
30 Mil. Head 5 CATTLE ON FEED OVER 120 DAYS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-N-12 01/23/15 DEC 2014 Live Cattle Contract 30
31 JUN 2015 Live Cattle Contract NOV 2014 Feeder Cattle Contract 31
32 MAY 2015 Feeder Cattle Contract Cattle Outlook 2012 & 2013: Soft demand & heavy showlists. Late 2013 & 2014: Clear signs of improving & wow! Liquidation & rebuilding. Reasonable feed costs. Worst case scenario softening demand & strong competing meat production. Best case scenario fall
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36 Weekly Corn Contract $8.00 $5.00 The trading range for corn is $3.00-$4.50/bu. Except 36
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39 DEC 2015 Corn Contract Forecast $ /bu 39
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41 Mil. Tons 190 US ALL HAY SUPPLY & DISAPPEARANCE Crop Year Hay Supply Disap. Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-20 01/16/15 Mil. Tons 120 US ALL HAY STOCKS December Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-22 01/16/15 41
42 Mil. Tons 30 US ALL HAY STOCKS May 1 (Beginning of Crop Year) Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-21 01/16/15 Forage Outlook Hay price followed corn. Anticipated weaker hay prices this year but North v. South... East v. West... Beef v. Dairy High priced excellent hay: >$150 $175/T. Low priced low quality hay: <$100 $125/T. 42
43 Outlook Summary Cattle: Unlikely to repeat 2014 Fed: $ /cwt. Yearlings: $ /cwt. Calves: $ /cwt. Corn: $ /bu. into next year. Acres? Hay: $ /T through winter & $ /T next year. Quality & regional needs? Prudent planning? Contact and Link Information 43
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