World gas markets: fundamentals & price trends Evariste Nyouki, Head of Economic Research

Transcription

1 World gas markets: fundamentals & price trends Evariste Nyouki, Head of Economic Research Club Mines-Energie, 6 December 212

2 Agenda 1 Trends in world gas consumption European gas market historical organisation European gas market deregulation and impact on prices The current world gas bubble Outlook for gas prices 2

3 Million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) A golden age for gas? World primary energy demand* Shares in 211 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectricity Biomass & waste Other renewables 1% 9% 6% 3% 4% 28% 22% Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectricity Biomass & waste Other renewables World energy consumption: average yearly growth rates Volumes Mtoe Oil 5% % 2% % -2% 3% 1% 459 Gas 6% 3% 3% 3% -3% 8% 2% 296 Coal 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 6% 5% 3724 Nuclear 26% 9% 2% % -1% 2% -4% 599 Hydroelectricity 4% 2% 2% 4% 1% 6% 2% 791 Biomass & waste 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1257 Other renewables 5% 8% 9% 14% 15% 18% 18% 195 Total 4% 1% 2% 1% -1% 5% 2% World GDP 3.% 3.9% 2.8% -.6% 5.3% 3.9% Source: BP Amoco & GDF SUEZ Trading According to the IEA, world energy demand through 235 should increase by 1.2%/year. The increase on gas demand is expected to be higher: +1.6% (against +.5% on oil and +.8% on coal) and its share of world energy demand should increase. But, to achieve this «golden age», gas has to remain competitive. 3

4 billion cubic metres Gas consumption: lower in Europe but higher in USA and Asia 35 World gas consumption Split of world gas consumption USA European union Japan FSU China Others Others 39% FSU 19% USA 21% European Union 14% China 4% Japan 3% World gas consumption: average yearly growth rates Volumes Bcm USA 2% % 1% 1% -2% 4% 2% 69 European Union 15% 2% 3% 2% -6% 8% -1% 448 China 21% 1% 12% 15% 1% 2% 22% 131 Japan 2% 7% 4% 4% -7% 8% 12% 16 FSU 8% 3% 1% -1% -9% 7% 3% 6 Others 9% 6% 6% 5% 2% 9% 4% 1249 World 6% 3% 3% 3% -3% 8% 2% 3223 In 211, European Union was the only region to record a drop in its natural gas consumption! Consumption dropped to its lowest level since 2! Source: BP Amoco & GDF SUEZ Trading 4

5 Agenda 1 Trends in world gas consumption European gas market historical organisation European gas market deregulation and impact on prices The current world gas bubble Outlook for gas prices 5

6 European gas market historical organization Marchés nationaux Monopole public Une industrie fortement capitalistique Compétition Gaz / produits pétroliers Engagements de long-terme bilatéraux équilibrés La sécurité d approvisionnement : une préoccupation nationale majeure un importateur unique/limitation du négoce de gaz. Compétition gaz versus fuel lourd dans l industrie et fuel domestique dans le secteur résidentiel tertiaire. Pas de marché captif. Ressources en gaz provenant de régions éloignées Investissement considérable en infrastructures (gazoducs, stockage, GNL ) Une répartition des risques équilibrée entre acheteurs et producteurs : Risque prix : producteur (pricing net-back / produits pétroliers) Risque volume : acheteurs (Take-Or-Pay pour sécuriser le cash-flow du producteur) 6

7 An historical organization based on national companies GFU GAZPROM Montoir BG Zeebrugge GDF VNG Distrigaz Ruhrgas Sines Huelva Bilbao Gas Natural La Spezia Fos Barcelone Carthagène Skikda Arzew SONATRACH SNAM Marmara Revithoussa 7

8 Agenda 1 Trends in world gas consumption European gas market historical organisation European gas market deregulation and impact on prices The current world gas bubble Outlook for gas prices 8

9 CO2 Electricité Gaz Energy market opening in Europe Processus de Madrid Août 1998 Août 2 Juin 23 Juillet 24 Juillet 27 Directive Gaz EU Transposition France 2de Directive Eligibilité non-résidentiels Ouverture totale Décembre 96 Directive Électricité Processus de Florence Décembre 1996 Février 1999 Juin 23 Juillet 24 Juillet 27 Directive Electricité EU Transposition France 2de Directive Eligibilité non-résidentiels Ouverture totale Décembre Janvier 25 Janvier 28 Protocole de Kyoto Directive CO2 Phase I Phase II 9

10 The new features and the emergence of gas trading places Upstream: unreg ulated Regulated activities Downstream: unregulated Production Trading Tra nsmission Distribution Supply Competition on imports Third Party Access (TPA) to the transmission and distribution networks Unbundling of accounts, to avoid cross subsidisation Competition on supply to end users, ie market opening Consequence of market opening: the creation of market places (ie trading places) 1

11 Gas market places in Europe National Balancing Point (NBP) in UK: 1996 Zeebrugge in Belgium: 1999 HubCo and EuroHub at the Germany/Netherlands border: 22 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Netherlands: 23 Punto di Scambio Virtuale (PSV) in Italy: 23 Points d Echange de Gaz (PEGs) in France : 24/27 Gaspool (ex. BEB) in Nord-East Germany: 24/29 Central European Gas HUB (CEGH) (Baumgarten): 25 NCG (ex. EGT) in South-East Germany: 26/29 11

12 TWh Trend in traded volumes on European gas markets Around 6% of trades are done on screens where the community of traders can see the volumes Electronic OTC platforms: 8% Exchanges: 2% The remaining volumes (4%) are done by voice Gas market size - Estimation of traded volumes on electronic platforms PEG PSV NCG Gaspool TTF eotc Zeebrugge eotc NBP eotc Continuous increase in traded volumes over the last years UK remains the biggest market (around 68%), but liquidity is significantly increasing in continental Europe, particularly on TTF (24%); Zeebrugge s share is falling (3%) Source : FSA Analysis of activity in the energy markets 211, Electronic trading platforms & GDF SUEZ Trading 12

13 Gas trading hubs develop mainly where there are physical interests OECD Europe gas supply Bcm LNG, 91 UK, 47 North Africa (pipeline), 41 Former Soviet Union (pipeline), 134 Norway, 98 Netherlands, 81 Norwegian gas Russian gas UK gas Others, 4 NBP Gaspool TTF Zeebrugge NCG NBP (and US Henry Hub): structural liquidity! PEGs Baumgarten Continental Europe: more short term liquidity, fuelled recently by gas oversupply. LNG PSV North African gas 13

14 From physical volumes to traded volumes Traded volumes = T/P * P/C * C = Financial trading * Physical trading * Consumption T = traded volumes P = volumes going to physical delivery C = consumption with P <= C T/P = churn ratio = indicator of financial trading P/C = indicator of physical trading Data for 21 - TWh Gas consumption (C) Traded volumes (T) Traded volumes going to physical delivery (P)* T/P P/C Germany % UK % Italy % Netherlands %** France % Belgium %** *Estimates **As Netherlands is a major exporter country and Belgium a major transit country, part of volumes delivered on these markets is exported thereafter. Source: TSOs, Electronic trading platforms, Exchanges & GDF SUEZ Trading 14

15 Diversity in gas market players Diversity in market players with various needs Physical players Oil & Gas producers Gas & Power utilities Consumers TSO Storage & terminal operators Global traders Financial players Banks Hedge funds Institutional investors 15

16 USD/MMBTU EUR/MWh Despite deregulation, gas market prices continued to be influenced by oil prices in Europe but also in the US, at least until recently 5 Gas market prices versus long-term oil-indexed prices Cold winter Mild winter Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Links between oil prices and gas market prices in Europe: contractual links (via long-term oilindexed contracts) & physical substitution links. NBP TTF European LT oil-indexed 16 Month-ahead gas versus oil prices in the US Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 These physical substitution links explain why, in a market without long-term oil-indexed contracts like the USA, gas prices used to trade between fuel oil and heating oil prices. Range Heating oil-fuel oil Henry Hub Source: Nymex, ICE, Platts, Argus & GDF SUEZ Trading 16

17 Agenda 1 Trends in world gas consumption European gas market historical organisation European gas market deregulation and impact on prices The current world gas bubble Outlook for gas prices 17

18 billion cubic meters A gas bubble due to the sharp increase in LNG flows from 29, mainly from Qatar, 39 World liquefaction capacity Qatar Indonesia Australia Malaysia Nigeria Algeria Trinidad & Tobago Others World LNG liquefaction capacity increased from 26 Bcm/year end 26 to 371 Bcm/year end 21 (+111 Bcm). The bulk of this increase is due to Qatar whose liquefaction capacity jumped from 35 Bcm in 26 to 16 Bcm in 211 (+71 Bcm). Qatar is now by far the world n 1 LNG producer (28% market share). Most these Qatari volumes were intended for the US market. Source: Waterborne LNG & GDF SUEZ Trading 18

19 billion cubic metres/month billion cubic metres/year the strong increase in US gas production thanks to shale gas, 8 US gas supply Production Net pipeline imports Net LNG imports US and Europe LNG imports Thanks to unconventional gas, US domestic gas production increased from 546 Bcm in 27 to 651 Bcm in 211. This led to a significant drop in US LNG imports (22 Bcm in 27 and 1 Bcm in 211) they were expected to increase. As there are not yet market places in Asia, idle volumes went to Europe: Europe LNG imports increased from 56 Bcm in 27 to 71 Bcm in 29 and 9 Bcm in Europe USA Source: Energy Information Administration, Waterborne LNG & GDF SUEZ Trading 19

20 the limited growth in other America countries (excluding USA) Other America LNG imports - Bcm/month Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 The increase in US domestic production impacted US LNG imports but even more net pipeline imports (from Canada) which dropped from 85 Bcm in 27 to 45 Bcm in 211. Due to higher pipeline imports from USA, Mexico LNG imports slowed down, from 5.85 Bcm in 21 to 4.5 Bcm in 211 but they rebounded in 212 (+29% so far). And Canada LNG imports increased only slightly: 2.9 Bcm in 21 and 3.3 Bcm in 211 but they dropped in 212 (-49% so far). Overall, LNG consumption remains low in the zone (4.35 Bcm in Argentina in 211, 3.81 Bcm in Chile, <1 Bcm in Dominican Republic, Brazil and Puerto Rico) but increased significantly in 212 so far, particularly in Brazil (+265%), Argentina (+24%) and Puerto Rico (+114%). Source: Waterborne LNG & GDF SUEZ Trading 2

21 Billion cubic metres and the weak European gas demand 6 OECD Europe gas consumption Residential/Commercial Industry Power Generation Industry own use and losses Drop in European gas consumption: -5% in 29, +6% in 21, -9% in 211; and -5% in 212 so far Split of the -9% drop in 211 Residential/Commercial: -13% (-29 Bcm, to 192 Bcm), mainly because of mild weather Industry: -5% (-7 Bcm, to 128 Bcm), mainly because of the economic slowdown Power generation: -7% (-12 Bcm, to 165 Bcm), mainly because of the lack of (price) competitiveness Source: International Energy Agency & GDF SUEZ Trading 21

22 The increase in Japan LNG consumption after the Fukushima disaster Japan nuclear production - GWh/month Japan Power Gen gas consumption - Bcm/month J F M A M J J A S O N D 3 J F M A M J J A S O N D Japan Residential/Tertiary gas consumption - Bcm/month J F M A M J J A S O N D Japan nuclear power generation in 211: -43% on average against 21; TWh in June 212 Japan gas consumption from power generation: +2% in 211, to 68 Bcm Japan Residential/Tertiary gas consumption: -.3% in 211, to 29 Bcm Overall, Japan total gas consumption: +11% in 211, to 112 Bcm Japan total LNG imports: +12% in 211, to 18 Bcm; +13% in 212 so far Source: IEE Japan & GDF SUEZ Trading 22

23 billion cubic metres/month and the structural increase in LNG consumption in other Asian countries Other Asia (excluding Japan) LNG imports China gas supply/demand balance - Bcm/year J F M A M J J A S O N D Range Production Consumption India gas supply/demand balance - Bcm/year Sharp (structural) increase in LNG consumption in other Asian countries in 211: +17%, to 16 Bcm. China: +33%, to Bcm India: +37%, to Bcm South Korea (SK): + 5%, to 49 Bcm In 212 so far: +19% in China, + 15% in India, +3% in South Korea; +8% for total Other Asia countries China intends to increase gas share in its energy demand mix (only 4.5% at present) and reduce coal share (7.4% at present) Production Consumption Source: Waterborne LNG, BP Amoco & GDF SUEZ Trading Despite the expected increase in domestic production (partly from shale gas), China gas imports could then jump from 31 Bcm in 211 to 62 Bcm in 215 and 125 Bcm in 22, via LNG and pipeline (mainly from Turkmenistan). 23

24 billion cubic metres/month tightened the world LNG balance 36 Monthly world LNG supply/demand balance Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Asia USA Other America Europe Max liquefaction capacity Despite the increase in liquefaction capacity, the strong increase in LNG consumption in 21 (+22%) and 211 (+9%) led to a drop in the reserve margin: from 24% in 29 to 19% in 21 and 12% in 211. Source: Waterborne LNG & GDF SUEZ Trading 24

25 billion cubic metres/year billion cubic metres/month but has had a limited impact on the comfortable European gas balance 1 9 OECD Europe LNG imports J F M A M J J A S O N D OECD Europe consumption versus maximum supply Production LNG imports Pipeline imports Consumption LNG supply to Europe was almost unchanged in 211 (91 Bcm, against 9 Bcm in 21) as additional LNG volumes went to the more rewarding Asian market. It collapsed in 212: -24% so far. The European gas market remained comfortable nevertheless, mainly because of the drop in demand. As a consequence, the gas bubble, that emerged in 29, increased in 212. Source: Waterborne LNG, International Energy Agency & GDF SUEZ Trading 25

26 International gas markets: not yet totally integrated... LT contracts Fuel Oil / Gasoil Henry Hub NBP / TTF Coal Fuel Oil / Naphta etc JCC contracts JKM LNG flows Substitute Oil indexed gas Market references Source: JCC= Japan Crude Cocktail. JKM= Japan/Korea Marker 26

27 billion cubic metres as LNG flows, although rising, are not high enough compared to gas consumption % % % 8% 1 7% 5 6% % World LNG flows Share of world gas consumption Although rising, LNG flows represent only 1% of world gas consumption. Moreover, behind this average, there are huge regional differences: the LNG share is very high in Asia, very low in the USA and medium in Europe. This situation explains price divergence between markets. Source: BP Amoco, Waterborne LNG & GDF SUEZ Trading 27

28 EUR/MWh Price comparison: low prices in the US, high prices in Asia, Europe in between 5 Month-ahead gas prices Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 UK NBP European LT oil-indexed US Henry Hub Asian JKM Divergence between US and European/Asian prices from 21. Divergence between European and Asian prices from 211, after Fukushima. Sharp (structural) drop in European gas market prices below oil-indexed prices from 29. However, cold weather can temporarily make these prices converge again. Source: Platts, ICE, Nymex & GDF SUEZ Trading 28

29 million cubic metres/day Illustration of the weather-sensitivity of the European gas balance: the UK example 45 UK demand versus supply (actual and expected) Nov-12 4-Dec-12 4-Jan-13 4-Feb-13 4-Mar-13 UK domestic BBL Langeled LNG Interco Storage Demand Cold demand Source: National Grid & GDF SUEZ Trading Cold weather pushed UK total gas demand to record levels in the past few days. If the weather continues to be cold through the winter, UK will need LNG supply above the current levels (42 mm cm/day) or higher imports from Zeebrugge via the Interconnector. But, in case of normal weather, the UK could afford lower LNG supply. 29

30 Agenda 1 Trends in world gas consumption European gas market historical organisation European gas market deregulation and impact on prices The current world gas bubble Outlook for gas prices 3

31 billion cubic metres/year Medium-term outlook for US LNG exports US net LNG exports US net LNG exports The US should become a net LNG exporter from 216. However, despite the numerous LNG liquefaction projects (up to 8 Bcm/year), the EIA does not expect massive exports: «only» 2 Bcm/year in 216, rising to 19 Bcm/year in 22. Source: Energy Information Administration, GDF SUEZ Trading 31

32 billion cubic metres/year billion cubic metres/year European gas medium-term supply/demand balance 5 45 Annual world LNG supply/demand balance 25% World LNG market: probably tight in 213, then more comfortable % 15% In 212 so far, world LNG demand is slightly lower (-.55%). Our assumption for the whole 212 year: -.7% in world LNG demand % Then, we expect demand to increase by 5%/year on average in % % Given these assumptions and as almost no additional liquefaction capacity is expected before 214, the reserve margin should increase to 14% in 212 (up from 12% in 211), drop to 12% in 213, and increase again to 17% in 214 and 15% in 215. Asia USA Other America Europe Liquefaction capacity Reserve margin (RHS) OECD Europe gas consumption versus maximum supply: annual Production LNG Pipeline imports Consumption Reserve margin (RHS) 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % European gas market: oversupply should reduce from 213 Assumptions on demand: -4% in 212, +5.% in 213, and +1%/year thereafter Further drop in domestic production and low LNG supply Increase in pipeline imports, due to Algeria (Medgaz: 8 Bcm/year from 212) FSU (Central scenario: 14 Bcm/year of new gas in the second line of the Nord Stream from 213; Low scenario: Bcm/year; High scenario: 27.5 Bcm/year) Given these assumptions, the reserve margin should reach a maximum in 212 and then begin to drop (although remaining at relatively high levels), which could narrow the gas-to-oil spread. Source: Waterborne LNG, International Energy Agency, GDF SUEZ Trading 32

33 USD/MMBTU Is the gas-to-oil de-correlation (particularly in the USA) sustainable? 28 Month-ahead gas versus oil & coal prices in the US Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Range Heating oil-fuel oil Henry Hub Coal US Henry Hub gas prices dropped below the heating oil-fuel oil range from mid-27 due to the rise in unconventional gas production. From 211, they even dropped below coal prices... but are now coming back to parity. However, the current increase in US gas consumption and expected increase in US oil production (thanks to shale oil and gas to liquids projects) could narrow the gas-to-oil spread in the coming years. Source: Nymex, Argus, Platts, GDF SUEZ Trading 33

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