Combat simulation as a tool for evaluation of future weapon system and some risks in scenario based wargaming

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1 Combat simulation as a tool for evaluation of future weapon system and some risks in scenario based wargaming Esa Lappi and Bernt Åkesson Finnish Defence Forces Technical Research Centre Electronics and Information Technology Division Security in Futures Security in Change, June 3-4, 2010, Turku

2 Finnish Defense Forces (1) Environment 1

3 Finnish Defense Forces (2) Annual budget ~ 2.3 (~$2.8) 10 9 About 1.3% of GNP (in USA ~4.5%) + work lost by conscripts + ~0, (est. by author) Real investment by the society: (1.7%GNP) Peacetime strength 13,000 regulars 27,000 conscripts (80% of males, less than 500 females) 30,000 reservists trained annually Wartime strength 430,000 (>> by 2016) Population of Finland ~5.2 million 2

4 Finnish Defense Forces (3) The military defense of Finland surveillance of areas and airspace securing the territorial integrity providing military education Supporting other authorities Participating in international military crisis management 3

5 Army development process by general Räty (published 2009) Nation wide starting situation and troops Create troop placement and plans by using operational concepts War gaming of the situation and first simulations War gaming of the best option(s) in detail in battallion level Recalculate in different terrain and environment War gaming using different course of action and different organization and different equipment alternatives Test with real units using combat training simulators (KASI-system) Retest different terrain or different option Decide the organization, write field manuals and purchase equipment 4

6 Simulation Technical and tactical use Evaluating alternatives Especially for future systems still on the drawing board For increasing the understanding of various phenomena Training of officers and men 5

7 Sandis simulation tool A software for comparative studies Map as a user interface for Wargaming Units and their movements set on the map by the user Units and weapons with their parameters from a database Collection of weapon effect models Used in cost-effectiveness analysis from platoon to brigade level Uses probability distributions of the unit strengths for probabilistic risk analysis 6

8 Sandis simulation tool 7

9 Example from the 3 rd International Sandis Workshop The Plan (0 min) 8

10 Example from the 3 rd International Sandis Workshop The Plan (Cont.) 9

11 Example from the 3 rd International Sandis Workshop Alternative 1 (87 min) 10

12 Example from the 3 rd International Sandis Workshop Alternative 3 (87 min) 11

13 Example from the 3 rd International Sandis Workshop Alternative 2 (120 min) 12

14 Example from the 3 rd International Sandis Workshop Alternative 3 (120 min) 13

15 Example from the 3 rd International Sandis Workshop Alt. 1 Alt. 2 Alt. 3 14

16 Example from the 3 rd International Sandis Workshop AT GR fire Alt. 2 Cargo Am fire Alt. 3 15

17 Example from the 3 rd International Sandis Workshop Alt. 2 Frag GR fire Frag GR fire Alt. 3 Cargo am fire 16

18 Example from the 3 rd International Sandis Workshop Conclusions (from these scenarios!) Indirect fire is preferred over MBT Time factor Infantry can also destroy tanks AT projectiles are not cost effective A mix of fragmentation grenades and cargo ammunition showed efficient 17

19 Risks (1) Too few tactical and operational alternatives are considered 18

20 Risks (2) Red teaming is not considered 19

21 Historical example: France May 1940 Germany succeeded in obtaining a strategic surprise Concentration of armoured forces with deep goals Air support to ground forces Decisive victory for Germany 20

22 Conclusions Simulation improves wargaming and evaluation of future weapons and technologies If Red teaming is not considered, the future defence system may be optmized against the wrong tactical and strategic use of enemy forces 21

23 Thank you for your attention QUESTIONS? 22

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