Premium Luxury Cars in 2020 The Challenges of New Energy. Pete Richings, Director JLR Hybrids & Electrification

Transcription

1 Premium Luxury Cars in 2020 The Challenges of New Energy Pete Richings, Director JLR Hybrids & Electrification Issued JLR by Hybrids JLR Hybrids & Electrification & Electrification 1

2 Recent Company Highlights Investment in operations and recruitment 1.5 billion profit in 2011/12 2 billion investment in 2012/13 Significant investment in three UK manufacturing sites and further investment in new advanced engine facility More than 8000 recruited in the last 2 years 312 Graduates and more than 200 advanced apprentices (level 3) taken on in 2012 JLR received a Corporate Responsibility Index Platinum Award (March 2012) JLR has established the largest electric/hybrid engineering team in UK approximately 240 engineers JLR Hybrids & Electrification 2

3 Recent Company Highlights End of financial year 11/12 results JLR Hybrids & Electrification 3

4 Development of Product & Brands JLR s growth principles The right kind of balanced investment JLR Hybrids & Electrification 4

5 Technological Innovation Key technology megatrends CO 2 REDUCTION/ ELECTRIFICATION INTELLIGENT VEHICLE VEHICLE IN A CONNECTED WORLD BROADCAST (Audio and Data) CAR PRODUCTION EMERGENCY SERVICES INTERNET Service Providers e.g. Google send to car, LBS SVT DEALER NETWORK SERVER FARM Vehicle Systems MODEM HOTSPOT DATA USERS WORLDWIDE TELECOMMS NETWORKS OEM s BACK OFFICE PSTN Cellular Clean! Smart! PHONE NEAR OR IN CAR IP PHONE FAR FROM CAR Connected! Wireless USB Blue Tooth JLR Hybrids & Electrification 5

6 The Low Carbon Vehicle Challenge Developing market drivers Regulatory Drivers GhG regulations toughen from 2016 CARB ZEVII compliance Fiscal Drivers Minimal incentives available in this time frame US China EU Significant risk of more stringent regulations Engine capacity based fiscal policy Significant risk of new FE or technology based policy Glidepath to compliance well understood Diesel and down-sizing continue to be important measures Punitive taxation in some countries Localised incentives offset technology cost e.g. Netherlands Consumer Drivers High level of HEV/EV awareness Low understanding of PHEV Minimal HEV sales today Customers with only EV experience possible in 5-10 years Hybrid knowledge restricted to niche groups Diesel undermines petrol HEV rationale Niche green movement Risks Particularly cost sensitive market Infrastructure readiness / capability Rapidly changing regulations and market conditions Infrastructure readiness Rapidly developing ICE technologies Infrastructure readiness / national variation JLR Hybrids & Electrification 6

7 The China Challenge 5 year plan and the blueprint for NEV China 5 year plan ratified in March emerging, strategic industries with New Energy Vehicles being one New Energy Vehicles blueprint was approved in May 2012, it has four areas: Develop new technology by accelerating R&D in core systems, e.g. batteries Setting targets for EV and PHEV vehicles, supporting with fiscal and taxation policy Setting overall fuel economy targets for 2015 and 2020 Develop infrastructure to support recharging and recycling of batteries Chinese government policy themes: Influence demand side by reducing oil consumption, e.g. invest in public transport Influence supply side by improving efficiency, e.g. FE targets Become world leaders in New Energy Vehicles, 5 million NEVs by 2020 JLR Hybrids & Electrification 7

8 The China Challenge Outlook Volatile legislative and standards environment Very important market for traditional vehicles and New Energy Potentially severe penalties for high fuel use Increasingly competitive and well supported indigenous manufacturers Probably the catalyst market for plug-in technologies In 2011, 8000 New Energy Vehicles were sold, 0.04% of the total market JLR Hybrids & Electrification 8

9 Battery Challenge Life Battery at beginning of life Battery at End of life Consequence of battery ageing to customer Energy 90 th Percentile customer HEV Fuel economy PHEV Running cost Legislative drive cycles Power EV Total vehicle performance JLR Hybrids & Electrification 9

10 Battery Challenge Cost Pack Cost 80% Supplier A Supplier B Supplier C Supplier D JLR Hybrids & Electrification 10

11 Battery Challenge Value Improvement Powder Cell Pack Value at powder/module/pack level $66 per kwh* $295 per kwh* $663 per kwh* Cost reduction measures Manufacturing methods Materials research Materials research Manufacturing methods Design improvements Standardisation Assembly methods Standardisation Electrical component cost improvements Energy density at powder/module/pack level kwh per kg kwh per kg kwh per kg Energy density improvement measures Materials research Materials research Design improvements Integration with subcomponents Weight reduction of subcomponents JLR Hybrids & Electrification 11

12 The Battery Challenge Summary Life is an increasingly important design factor The battery market remains immature with big cost deltas Cost and value need to be addressed at pack level Batteries are too heavy, too expensive, and they under-perform The competitor to the battery & motor is the fuel tank and ICE JLR Hybrids & Electrification 12

13 New Energy Vehicles in JLR The Future Making the smart choices Understanding our markets Researching in the right areas, collaboratively, with academia and high-tech suppliers Developing our capability in critical areas Driving down battery cost whilst improving battery performance JLR Hybrids & Electrification 13

14 Questions? JLR Hybrids & Electrification 14