Industrialization in Gulf: The Asian Connection. April 9, 2007

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1 Industrialization in Gulf: The Asian Connection April 9,

2 The Industrial Silk Route: To the Gulf Machinery and Equipment Mainly from EU [$40MMM in 2006] From US Some from Japan Consumer products from Asia Mainly from China $19MMM in 2006, growing 30%/y From Japan $15MMM Other Asia: India at $2.6MMM/y rising African Ores from Australian company BHP Billiton or UK s Rio Tinto 2

3 The Industrial Silk Route: From the Gulf to Asia Petroleum products ~$200MMM in 2006 ~$260MMM in 2007 [?] Products are Crude Oil 13MM b/d LNG from Qatar, Oman, UAE = 66MMM m 3 ~ $17MMM NGLs, LPGs 300,000 b/d Refined Products HFO used for Electricity generation and Petrochemicals Naphtha for Ethylene, Benzene, Propylene, etc Petrochemicals = Downstream C2,C3s,C4s, Aromatics ~ 70MM ts/y ~2/3 to Asia ~ $30MMM/y 3

4 The Industrial Silk Route: From the Gulf Fertilizers To China To Australia To India Metals Aluminum from Bahrain Dubai Steel Steel buildings 4

5 Structure of Industry in Saudi Arabia: Public Sector [1] SABIC Holding to 63 companies Only 8 JVs : 3 from Far East 1 from Taiwan, 2 from Japan 38 companies acquired from GE Advanced Plastics 8 in Asia Produce about 52 MM ts/y of products Going into hi-tech products No JVs in past 10 years Seek to create its own technology Wants to be BASF except bigger Competes with BASF in Asia Most of SABIC s Markets are in Asia 5

6 Structure of Industry in Saudi Arabia: Public Sector [2] Saudi Aramco Ma aden Moving into Chemicals in big way PetroRabigh = JV with Sumitomo $10MMM Dow Chemical in Ras Tanura $24MMM Needs to learn technology = SABIC 20 years ago Is going in the business through JVs Is seeking to be ExxonMobil except bigger! Market for products is Far East JV with SABIC for DAP = under construction Market is Asia JV with RioTinto-Alcan for Aluminum plant in Ras azzour Lowest cost aluminum in the world Railroad to Phosphate mines and Bauxite mines built by Chinese Company [?] 6

7 Structure of Industry in Saudi Arabia: Public Sector [3] Financing: Development of the Compagnie Mixte Saudi state company has largest minority stake Public gets involved through very large IPO in Riyad: Always huge successes as they are seen as State owned and highly professional Sumitomo put some capital in as well. Social Security Funds, SIDF, PIF lend large amounts Banks syndicate large facilities Sukkuk a favorite tool Loans are seen as loans to private sector by Bank regulator, but as loan to the State by lenders!!!! 7

8 Structure of Industry in Saudi Arabia: Public Sector [4] Major advantages Access to very low cost feedstock $0.75 /MM btu Saudi Aramco has on line access to crude and refined products at lowest cost in the world Access to large volume of capital both Public and Private Allows for development on steroid Major challenges Cost of EPC: Could negate the feedstock advantage Much higher than Chinese costs Shortage of Saudi manpower High cost of training Distance to clients Chemical industry likes to be close to its clients Major advantage to Chinese or European firms investing directly in China: BASF Clients will expect lower price to make up for distance 8

9 Structure of Industry in Saudi Arabia: Private Sector Main Chemical companies work in JV with US partners ChevronPhillips with SIIG $5MMM investment in Styrene, Benzene, Cyclohexene, Ethylene, Propylene and downstream Al-Zamil Industries JVs with Hunstman, Great Lakes, Basell [now owned by Russians] Al-Zamil also produce air conditionners and steel buildings for export Al-Ujain group [Alireza] No JVs= Propane Dehydro plant and downstream Challenge Do not have access to cheap feedstock Cannot compete easily in Asia 9

10 Other Industrialization Patterns in the Gulf Qatar Present situation Prospects Qatar is now the largest producer of LNG with 21 million ts/y Has Petchem production of about 13 million ts/y Expected to increase to LNG to 75 million ts/y by 2010 Planning to increase Petrochemicals to 43 millions ts/y Seeking to be largest player in GTL Will increase steel plant Establishing large aluminum plant Characteristics Markets are mainly in the Far East All investments are in the JV form 10

11 Other Industrialization Patterns in the Gulf [2] Kuwait Present situation Prospects One Naphtha based large petrochemical plant in JV with Dow Some downstream industries, but relatively limited Kuwait does not have much NG, must rely on Oil based productions Expected to increase the Dow JV Could seek NG from Iran, or Iraq. Saudi has vetoed the supply from Qatar Characteristics Kuwait has not developed its own technology base Relies on foreign JVs Does not seek to increase local employment as aggresively as the Saudis 11

12 Other Industrialization Patterns in the Gulf Other countries of the Gulf: Bahrain, UAE, Oman Present situation Some development by all constrained by lack of Gas Oman has sold its inheritance for a plate of lentils Very little integration of GCC states All productions in JV with foreign companies UAE owns foreign technologies The Dubai Miracle The center of the Silk Road The transhipment center of the silk route The Air transport hub of the silk route 12

13 Gulf Investments in the Far East Still few Saudi Aramco JVs in China Also building an integrated refinery and chem plant with Sinopec and ExxonMobil Has one JV refinery under construction SABIC has an MOU for a plant in China Problem = negotiation of transfer price of feedstock Saudi Arabia does not wish to sell its oil and products at a deep discount to its affiliates Would be against WTO regulations Prefer to keep its natural advantage at home Only advantages of producing in China Lower cost of EPC Proximity to Client Both issues can be solved in Saudi Arabia By hi-technology plants Low cost borrowing- large pool of capital Lowest feedstock cost in the world [at least for public companies] 13

14 Far East Investments in the Gulf Japan China Invested in Petchem and Industry in Saudi Arabia Sinopec has a gas upstream venture in Saudi Arabia Probably a net loss : loss leader 14

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