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2 Version 1 Author Jo Cuff Creation date 01/11/2015 Data source (e.g. database) STEAM Parameters (e.g. timeframes) 2005 to 2014 Key customer Marketing Manchester, visitor economy stakeholders and existing and pipeline tourism businesses. Classification of document: Unclassified Definition Transmission Storage and Handling Disposal Information which can be disclosed without causing any harm, no restrictions on content, audience or time of publication. It must not violate any laws or regulations. No restrictions on transmission. No restrictions - consider Clear Desk & Clear Screen Policy. No restrictions. Contact Details This document reports on the datasets for Greater Manchester from the STEAM model, operated by Global Tourism Solutions (UK) Limited and funded by Marketing Manchester. Intelligence enquiries relating to the study, or the wider tourism intelligence base, should be directed to Joanne Cuff, Tourism Analyst for Marketing Manchester, at New Economy: Front cover image; Marketing Manchester. 2

3 _ Contents Executive Summary... 4 Strategic Context... 5 Data Sources... 5 Key Findings... 6 Economic Impact... 6 Employment Supported... 8 Visitor Numbers Looking Ahead APPENDIX STEAM KPIs Greater Manchester STEAM KPIs Manchester

4 _ Executive Summary The STEAM figures for the calendar year of 2014 identified the following: Tourism generates 7.5bn to the economy of Greater Manchester, an increase of 64% since 2005, and a rise of 7% on Tourism activity supports circa 92,000 jobs within Greater Manchester, an increase of 35% since 2005, and a rise of 3% on Total visitor numbers to GM stand at 115m, a rise of 32% since 2005, and an increase of 5% on Day visits to GM (104.5m) represent 91% of the total visits to GM and have grown by 34% since 2005, and increased by 5% on Staying visits to GM (10.5m) represent 9% of the total visits to GM and have grown by 14% since 2005, and increased by 2% on The day visitor market (representing 91% of visitor volume), supports 77% of direct employment and generates 74% of the economic impact. Almost 6m staying visits stayed in serviced accommodation in 2014, compared to 138,300 staying in non-serviced accommodation. 40% of the direct revenue generated is through shopping, 27% through food and drink service, 14% through tickets for public transport or taxi fares, 10% through accommodation providers and 9% through venues and places offering things to do. Employment supported by visitor activity is also spread across a number of business types with 43% of the jobs supported being in retail (through shopping), 31% in restaurants, cafes and bars (through food and drink services), 12% in venues and attractions offering things to do, 7% in visitor accommodation and 7% in transport services. 4

5 Strategic Context Greater Manchester (GM) is the second most visited sub-region for both day and staying visits after Greater London (Great Britain Day Visits Survey 2014; and Great Britain Tourism Survey 2014; both VisitEngland). It is also the third most visited UK destination; following London and Edinburgh, for international visits (International Passenger Survey 2014; Office for National Statistics and VisitBritain). The GM Strategy (GMS) for , entitled Stronger Together, identifies a number of priorities to support the development of GM s economy and tourism has an important role to play in this respect, as GM seeks to build its global brand and improve its international competitiveness. The GM Strategy for the Visitor Economy outlines the ambition for the development of the tourism sector to achieve the economic growth referenced in the aforementioned GMS It also references the eight measures that will be used to monitor growth, four of these being obtained from the STEAM programme: To increase the number of staying visits to GM to 13.7m by To increase the number of day visits to GM to 127m by To increase the value of tourism to GM to 8.8bn by To increase the number of jobs supported by tourism activity in GM to 112,447 full-time equivalents (FTEs) by STEAM (Scarborough Tourism Economic Activity Monitor) enables the measurement of progress against these targets whilst also providing additional intelligence on supply changes. The STEAM model, produced by Global Tourism Solutions Ltd and originating in Scarborough, is used by destinations across the UK to calculate the value and volume of the visitor economy to a particular geography. Data Sources The STEAM data in GM draws on the following inputs from local sources: Rooms, bedspaces and tariff details for circa 350 accommodation providers. Hotel occupancy rates sourced from STR Global, Ltd. Average visitor spend collected from visitor surveys. Year-on-year visitor volume trends to 90+ attractions, events and visitor information centres. The STEAM model also sources wider data sources to include; average wage costs, population changes and inflation movement. 5

6 Key Findings Economic Impact In 2014 tourism generated an economic impact of 7.5bn in GM and the aim is to increase this to 8.8bn by The economic impact figure is split by direct expenditure and indirect expenditure. Direct expenditure is the expenditure by visitors during their visit on food, drink, entertainment, shopping, transport, and accommodation (if applicable). Indirect expenditure is the expenditure arising locally from businesses supplying goods and services to businesses, for example wholesalers and laundry services. The STEAM methodology takes into account that not all goods and services will be purchased using local suppliers and presents only the proportion of expenditure going to local businesses. Please also note that STEAM does not include the economic impact from induced expenditure resulting from increases in the level of income a person may have. Figure 1 provides the economic impact for each calendar year of the last decade and also shows the 2020 target. The economic impact generated by tourism activity in GM has increased by 64% ( 2.94bn) over the last decade (2005 to 2014) and 7% ( 524.5m) between 2013 and The upward trend in economic impact towards the end of 2007 can be seen in Figure 1, followed by a slight drop in 2008 a likely reflection of the economic downturn during this period. Since 2009 the economic impact has been heading in the right direction, towards the 8.8bn target of In volume terms, day visits outweigh staying visits nine to one but the economic impact figures evidence the value of both markets. Figure 1: Economic Impact in Greater Manchester 6

7 Figure 2 highlights the importance of staying visits to GM s economy. In volume terms, staying visits accounted for 9% of all visits to GM in 2014, but accounted for 26% of the economic impact. This compares to 31% in 2005, suggesting an increase in the impact from the day visitor market over the last decade. Increased connectivity and surrounding population are likely to have played a role in this. Figure 2: Economic Impact by visit type in 2014 Visitors spend money on a variety of things when they come to GM and Figure 3 shows the direct revenue (the direct expenditure excluding the VAT) by category in The category with the lowest proportion of spend is things to do at 9% and this is likely to be in part due to the range of free attractions and events in GM. Growth in the economic impact from visits in paid-for accommodation between 2013 and 2014 was due to a higher volume of bednights generated (feeding from hotel occupancy levels and the average length of stay) and an increase in the tariffs/average daily rates. Figure 3: Direct revenue to businesses by spend category (all visits), 2014 Things to do Attractions, theatres, comedy clubs, live music venues, events and festivals. Accommodation Hotels, serviced apartments, guest houses, self-catering units. Transport (within GM) Buses, Metrolink, taxis, trains. Food and drink Restaurants, cafes, bars. Shopping National retailers and independent shops (clothes, gifts, souvenirs and groceries). Staying visit split: 41% accommodation, 21% shopping, 18% food and drink, 11% things to do, 9% transport (not shown). Day visit split: 47% shopping, 30% food and drink, 16% transport, 8% things to do, 0% accommodation (not shown). 7

8 Employment Supported In 2014 tourism supported 92,000 FTEs and the aim is to increase this to over 112,400 by The employment supported figure is split by direct employment and indirect employment. Direct employment represents the employees who come into direct contact with the visitors, i.e. working within the accommodation providers, restaurants, attractions, venues and retailers. Indirect employment represents the jobs that support these businesses, including suppliers to accommodation providers and the food & drink producers to eating establishments. The STEAM methodology presents only the proportion of employment supported within local businesses. Please also note that STEAM does not include induced employment resulting from increases in the level of income a person may have and their consequent purchasing requirements from other businesses. Figure 4 provides the employment supported for each calendar year for the last ten years in GM and also gives the 2020 target. It shows that employment supported by tourism activity in GM has increased by 35% (23,700 FTEs) over the last ten years (2005 to 2014) and by 3% (3000 FTEs) between 2013 and The number of jobs supported has been increasing since 2009, following the economic downturn. Figure 4: Employment Supported in GM Note: Please note that jobs supported are rounded to the nearest 100 in the above chart. Figure 5 (on the following page) shows the proportion of jobs supported through both the day visit market and staying visit market. In 2014 the employment supported by staying visits was 23%. This compares to 26% in 2005, so as with economic impact, there has been a slight increase in the employment supported from the day visitor market over the last ten years. Increased connectivity with the surrounding area is likely to have played a role in this. 8

9 Figure 5: Employment supported by visit type in 2014 Note: Please note that the proportion of jobs supported is based on the direct employment. Figure 6 gives a breakdown of the industries in which jobs are supported in GM by visitor spend. As the visitor mix is approximately 90% day visits and 10% staying visits, businesses serving both categories of visitor are likely to see higher benefits. Also influencing the level of spend is the variance in the levels of purchase/usage across each business type which then consequently influences employment needs. Figure 6: Employment supported in businesses in GM, 2014 Things to do Attractions, theatres, comedy clubs, live music venues, events and festivals. Accommodation Hotels, serviced apartments, guest houses, self-catering units. Transport (within GM) Buses, trains, Metrolink, taxis. Food and drink Restaurants, cafes, bars. Shopping National retailers and independent shops (clothes, gifts, souvenirs and groceries). Note: The above breakdown represents the direct employment. 9

10 Visitor Numbers In 2014 GM hosted 115m visits and the aim is to increase this to over 140m visits by The 115m visits were made up of 104.5m day visits and 10.5m staying visits. In 2020 it is aimed that this split grows to 127.0m day visits and 13.7m staying visits. Figure 7 shows the number of visits for each calendar year in GM from , splitting out the number of day and staying visits. It also shows the 2020 target. Visitor numbers to GM increased by 32% (28.1m) between 2005 and This was fuelled by a 34% increase in day visits (26.8m) and 14% in staying visits (1.3m). Figure 7: Visitor Numbers in Greater Manchester Trends in visitor numbers vary between districts, with the largest level of growth being in Manchester, Salford and Bury, followed by Oldham, Bolton and Trafford. Manchester district s growth of 58%, 22.4m) between 2005 and 2014 is fed by a 61% growth in day visits (the largest proportion of the market) and by 28% growth in staying visits, and particularly contributing to the wider GM trend. Figure 8 shows the trend in the number of visits to serviced accommodation providers; hotels, guest houses and inns. It highlights a dip during 2008 and 2010, reflecting the economic downturn, with a recovery clearly evident since Figure 8: Visits to serviced accommodation in GM 10

11 Figure 9 shows the trend in the number of visits to non-serviced accommodation providers; serviced apartments and self-catering units in GM. Non-serviced accommodation across GM has fluctuated in terms of supply. Positive influences over the last decade have mainly been from the increasing number staying in serviced apartments, in-line with the boost of this type of supply since Negative influences in the visits to non-serviced accommodation in the decade have been due to the transition of smaller businesses (self-catering units or single serviced apartments) to the residential market (sold or let). Figure 9: Visits to non-serviced accommodation Looking Ahead The reporting for 2015 is due to be undertaken in During the year the Whitworth Art Gallery reopened following its 15m investment programme, the new centre for film and arts opened at the 25m HOME, the biennial Manchester International Festival returned and Manchester was also one of the hosts of the Rugby World Cup. These, along with the existing product offer and event programme, are expected to make further positive contributions to the performance of the visitor economy in GM. Looking specifically at staying visits, accommodation supply across GM has increased during 2015, and to a much greater degree than in recent years. This, coupled with hotel occupancy rates also showing increases, should support further growth for staying visits, particularly within serviced accommodation. 11

12 APPENDIX STEAM KPIs Greater Manchester Economic impact FTE jobs supported* Bednights generated in paid-for accommodation (excl. SFR bednights) billion 92, million billion 88, million billion 83, million billion 81, million billion 77, million billion 75, million billion 73, million billion 73, million billion 70, million billion 68, million Staying visits Day visits Total visits million million million million 99.1 million million million 95.2 million million million 95.5 million million million 91.4 million million million 89.7 million 97.9 million million 87.6 million 96.4 million million 85.0 million 94.6 million million 83.7 million 92.8 million million 77.7 million 86.9 million *Rounded to the nearest

13 STEAM KPIs Manchester Economic impact FTE jobs supported* Bednights generated in paid-for accommodation (excl. SFR bednights) billion 48, million billion 46, million billion 42, million billion 40, million billion 37, million billion 35, million billion 34, million billion 34, million billion 32, million billion 30, million Staying visits Day visits Total visits million 56.8 million 61.0 million million 53.2 million 57.4 million million 49.7 million 53.9 million million 49.8 million 53.6 million million 45.3 million 48.7 million million 43.5 million 46.5 million million 42.0 million 45.3 million million 40.5 million 44.3 million million 39.9 million 43.2 million million 35.4 million 38.7 million *Rounded to the nearest 100. Contact Details The above figures for Manchester represent the geographical remit governed by Manchester City Council. To obtain datasets for the remaining nine authorities in Greater Manchester; Bolton, Bury, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford and Wigan please contact for the respective district contact. 13

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