Stay, Leave or Return? Understanding Graduate Mobility: the case of Wales RSA Conference: Labour markets, migration and regional development

Transcription

1 Stay, Leave or Return? Understanding Graduate Mobility: the case of Wales RSA Conference: Labour markets, migration and regional development Dr Gillian Bristow and Dr Madeleine Pill Centre on Skills, Knowledge and Organisational Performance (SKOPE) School of City and Regional Planning, Cardiff University and Rhys Davies Wales Institute of Social & Economic Research, Data & Methods (WISERD)

2 Context Growing interest in graduate migration graduate movements possibly represent the greatest flow of human capital around a region or country at a given point in time (Cowling, 2009; p. 5) Brain drains undermine potential for regional economic development Developing literature on graduation migration in UK highlights certain features The spatially uneven (but complex) employment geography for graduates The importance of employment opportunities for graduate retention / recruitment in regions The path-dependent nature of migration decisions e.g. The HULT model (Hoare and Corver, 2010) But certain questions remain What happens to leavers? the economic and employment outcomes for mobile graduates What about returners? - do first destinations represent jobs and labour markets for life?

3 Aims and data sources Overall aims to establish the patterns of graduate migration to and from Wales to investigate the employment outcomes of post-1992 Welsh graduates Data Sources Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) Data: Students in Higher Education data Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education Survey (DLHE) Labour Force Survey (LFS)/ Annual Population Survey (APS) Identifies country of birth, region of current residence and (since 2008) country where acquired degree

4 Country of domicile by country of study for full-time first degree students (% & number), 2008/09 Country of Country of study (% and nos) Total domicile Wales England Scotland N Ireland Students Wales , , < ,305 England , , ,215 < ,670 Scotland , ,925 < ,955 N Ireland , , ,505 39,745 Total Students 57, , ,570 27, ,675 Source: Adapted from HESA Students in Higher Education 2008/09, table 5a.

5 Region of Domicile Retention Rate for full-time first degree graduates, 2008/09 (%) North East North West Yorkshire & The Humber East Midlands West Midlands East of England London South East South West English region average [Wales] Source: Adapted from HESA Students in Higher Education 2008/09, table 5a

6 Country of study by country of employment six months after graduation: for employed undergraduate graduates (including non-degree) (%), 2002/ /07 Country of employment Country of study Wales England Scotland N Ireland Wales England Scotland N Ireland Source: Mosca and Wright (2010), using HESA Students in Higher Education 2002/ /07. Nos observations: 837,279

7 Summary flows to and from Wales (within UK) of full-time undergraduate students (including non-degree) entering employment, annual average for 2004/ / Welsh' graduates in Wales Welsh' graduates outside Wales Non-Welsh' graduates in Wales Net flow of graduates Source: WAG Statistical Bulletin, SB 78/2010, using HESA Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (DLHE) data

8 Graduates from 2005/6 who were working six months after graduation, by region and location of domicile and study (Nos & % of total employed in region) UK region Total employed Locals Returners Stayers Outsiders Wales 3, , ,350 England 48, , , , ,905 Scotland 10, ,920 N Ireland 3, ,600 Source: Graduate Mobility: who goes to work in each region (2008) prepared by HECSU for Prospects.ac.uk, using HESA Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (DLHE) 2005/06

9 What jobs? SOC(HE) category Description Examples 1. Traditional The established professions, for which, historically, the normal route has been via an undergraduate degree programme. Solicitors graduate Medical practitioners occupations HE & secondary education teachers 2. Modern graduate occupations The newer professions, particularly in management, IT and creative vocational areas, which graduates have been entering since educational expansion in the 1960s. Biological scientists/ biochemists Directors, chief executives (major organisations) Software professionals, computer programmers Primary school & nursery teachers Authors/ writers/ journalists 3. New graduate occupations Areas of employment, many in new or expanding occupations, where the route into the professional area has recently changed such that it is now via an undergraduate degree programme. Marketing & sales managers Physiotherapists, occupational therapists Management accountants Welfare, housing, probation officers, 4. Niche graduate occupations Occupations where the majority of incumbents are not graduates, but within which there are stable or growing specialist niches which require higher education skills and knowledge. Countryside/ park rangers Leisure and sports managers Hotel, accommodation managers Nurses, midwives Plus non-graduate occupations Retail managers

10 The Evolution of Graduate Careers Among Recent Graduates Years following graduation Living in Region of Birth Living Elsewhere All Differential In employment (%) % 63.4% 65.2% -2.1% % 83.9% 76.5% 9.4% % 87.4% 86.8% 0.8% % 89.9% 89.4% 0.7% % 88.8% 90.3% -2.0% % 94.1% 94.4% -0.4% In Non-Graduate Employment (%) % 46.2% 57.2% -12.8% % 30.5% 43.7% -17.1% % 26.0% 34.4% -10.6% % 17.3% 30.1% -16.2% % 12.7% 23.3% -14.0% % 15.6% 25.1% -12.6% Gross Weekly Earnings ( ) Source: Labour Force Survey

11 45.0% The Evolution of Graduate Careers Among Post 1992 Young Graduates (Earnings and % in Non-Graduate Jobs) 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0-4 years 5-9 years years 15 years+ % Non-Grad Jobs - Region of Birth % Non-Grad Jobs - Living Elsewhere Earnings Differential (Elsewhere vs Region of Birth) Source: Labour Force Survey

12 Estimated association between graduate migration and labour market outcomes Males Females Relative probability of being in a non-graduate occupation (relative to non-migrants) Wales -37.4% -51.4% Scotland -46.5% -41.1% N Ireland -44.5% -65.1% Relative gross weekly earnings (% differential relative to non-migrants) Wales 28.4% 20.3% Scotland 15.9% 15.6% N Ireland 15.2% 22.6% Italicised= not statistically significant

13 Graduate employment by region Graduate Employment by Region (Working Age Population with a Degree) Source: Annual Population Survey IRC RofE Wales Scot N.I Total Traditional Modern New Niche Non-graduate Total

14 Comparing Employment Outcomes of Post 1992 Young Graduates: Employed in the Public Sector (% of those in work) 60.0% 51% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 47% 39% 39% 36% 36% 42% 30% 39% 45% 32% 41% 37% 37% 36% Non-Migrants Migrants 20.0% All 10.0% 0.0% England Wales Scotland N Ireland Total Place of Birth Source: Labour Force Survey

15 Implications and next steps Clear path dependencies at work here Importance of locals as graduate labour force Strong relationships between regional economic structure and subsequent opportunities Implications for HE and regional economic development policy Quantitative analysis currently restricted to stayers vs leavers Want to separate out stayers in to: continual stayers (educated in country of birth, live in country of birth) left to study and came back (educated elsewhere, live in country of birth) Want to separate out leavers in to: left to study and stayed away (educated elsewhere, live elsewhere) studied at home and then left (educated in country of birth, live elsewhere) Disaggregate analysis e.g. STEM graduates? Plus qualitative case studies of knowledge economy entrepreneurs returners