Offshore wind power ENERTECH2009 Athens Greece

Transcription

1 Offshore wind power Athens Greece Sten Frandsen dr.techn. MSc.

2 My talk: Status of offshore wind activities Economy of offshore wind power plants Future planned and possible deployment in the future; major research issues 2

3 Entering the post fossil age.. what are our options? Well, other renewable technologies will (hopefully) follow, BUT....wind energy is presently the only technically and economically ready renewable candidate for replacement of fossil fuels 3

4 New power capacity additions (EU 27, GW) Total installed wind energy: 200 GW GW ,0 Wind, best onshore: 3-4 c /kwh , ,4 0 Natural Gas 50% Wind 29% Coal 5% Photo- Voltaic 4% Fuel Oil 4% Nuclear 3% Hydro 2% 8,8 7,0 5,8 3,9 3,4 1,8 Biomass 2% Other 1% 4 Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts PowerVision

5 Renewables How much is there to harvest? 5 REN

6 How does the wind turbine make electricity? the wind the wind turbine THE WIND ENERGY FUEL The approaching wind is proportional to the cubed wind speed: Thus, doubling of wind speed: A (swept area) + efficiency Good wind is everything 6

7 The winds, onshore..and offshore 7

8 Status of offshore wind energy 8

9 The substructure options for offshore wts Past Future 9 Shallow water Deep water

10 Offshore potential 2004 World electricity consumption per year: approx. 2 TWy European prospects: In terms of capacity 20GW 70GW 600GW Rest of world: In terms of energy per y theoretical - 5 TWy/y practical TWy/y Already Obsolete! Potential is much higher! 10 Risø DTU, From Technical Shaw et al University (2002) of Denmark From Siegfriedsen et al (2003).

11 Two first real demonstration projects Each approx 160 MW (km) Horns Rev Nysted 11

12 North Sea: Horns Rev monopile 12

13 The Baltics Nysted gravity foundations 13

14 Horns Rev 2 September MW Siemens/DONG 14

15 Offshore current status End 2008: 1.5 GW offshore 8 EU countries 15

16 Largest stock average offshore wind turbine RePower/Talisman 2x5MW at Beatrice oil platform, Scotland 45m water depth, jacket substructure 16

17 Not stock average: floating wind turbine 17

18 Economy etc. of offshore wind power 18

19 Investment cost per MW Average for the Horns Rev+Nysted DK projects Component Investments 1000 /MW Share % Turbines ex. work, including transport and erection Trafo-station and main cable to coast Internal grid between turbines 85 5 Foundations Design, project management Environmental analysis etc Miscellaneous 10 <1 Total 1680 ~100% 19

20 Supply chain turbine supply (present) Current market players Manufacturer Power output Siemens 3.6 MW Vestas 3 MW Nordex 2.5 MW Repower 5 and 6 MW BARD Eng. 5 MW Multibrid 5 MW Source: MAKE Consulting 2009, own elaboration Manufacturers are expanding their offshore capacity Some have reserved part of their capacity for offshore wind Dedicated offshore turbines are entering the market Newcomers may enter the market (Acciona, Gamesa, GE) 20

21 Cost of future offshore wind? from WPM etc. 21

22 Future 22

23 Up Scaling Wind turbines grown in size despite fundamental physics m Ø?? Jos Beurskens Repower Jos Beurskens 23

24 Substructures maybe up to a 100m? 24

25 The substructure options for offshore wts Past Future 25 Shallow water Deep water

26 EWEA s 20 year offshore network development plan Global cumulative wind power capacity (MW) Source: EWEA

27 The space needed 27

28 20MW wind turbine and Eiffel tower 300m 28

29 Major technology challenges Less expensive substructures Building very large wind turbines Reducing structural loads Increase efficiency Make upscaling possible Reducing significantly the operation and maintenance costs Understand the interaction between very large wind farms and the (wind) climate 29

30 Giant wind turbines and houses..? 300m 30

31 Words of conclusion The offshore wind power potential is large (enough) Cost of offshore wind energy will be larger than onshore substructure, grid and O&M are the sinners Apparently, selling prices on offshore wind energy are currently too low and await political action THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION 31