THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF US PROPYLENE AND PROPANE MARKETS. Pat Whalen Managing Editor, PetroChem Wire June 19, 2012

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1 THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF US PROPYLENE AND PROPANE MARKETS Pat Whalen Managing Editor, PetroChem Wire June 19, 2012

2 About PetroChem Wire Formed in 2007 in response to growing spot market liquidity in the ethylene and propylene monomer markets. PCW publishes daily spot prices for NGLs, olefins and polymers, connecting the supply chain from energy down to manufacturing. In addition, PCW publishes a daily Propylene Focus along with other reports. Is used by the NYMEX as benchmark for monomer & polymer futures contracts.

3 Agenda I. The current landscape: production II. The current landscape: costs III. The changing landscape: investments IV. The changing landscape: production V. The changing landscape: costs VI. The future landscape: transparency

4 The current propylene landscape: production Most propylene in the US is produced by upgrading refinery grade propylene, which is a crude grade of propylene. Refinery grade propylene (RGP) can be produced in the refining process OR as a byproduct of steam cracking during the ethylene production process. During the steam cracking process, RGP is produced when cracking heavy feeds.

5 The current propylene landscape: production Feed slate options for steam crackers: Ethane (C2) Propane (C3) Butane (C4) Natural Gasoline (C5) Naphtha (C6-8) The higher the number, the heavier the hydrocarbon. Naphtha is the heaviest. The heavier the feedstock, the less ethylene yield and the greater co-product yield, such as pyrolysis gasoline (pygas) or RGP.

6 The current propylene landscape: production Historically, US steam crackers have been: Light - using mostly ethane or propane Heavy - using mostly butane, natural gasoline or naphtha Flexible - having a large number of furnaces to accept every type of feedstock

7 The current propylene landscape: production However, with the shale-fueled ethane craze in recent years, nearly every US steam cracker has changed its furnace slate to be light. As a result, co-product production such as pygas and RGP have been dramatically reduced. For RGP, this has meant that most production now comes from refineries.

8 The current propylene landscape: production RG propylene PG propylene CG propylene Alon BP Chalmette Chevron Citgo ExxonMobil Flint Hills LaGloria LBI Marathon Motiva Murphy Pasadena PBF Phillips 66 Shell Total Valero BASF/Total (JV) Braskem Chevron Phillips Eastman Enterprise ExxonMobil Flint Hills Formosa Ineos LBI/Equistar PetroLogistics Phillips 66 Pinnacle Sunoco Westlake Williams BASF Dow Eastman Enterprise ExxonMobil Flint Hills Ineos LBI/Equistar PetroLogistics Sunoco Westlake Williams

9 The current propylene landscape: production RGP uses Upgraded (split) into purer grades of propylene chemical grade (94% purity) and polymer grade (99% purity). Combined with benzene to produce cumene (which is used to produce phenol). Combined with isobutane to produce alkylate (a gasoline blendstock)

10 The current propylene landscape: costs RGP supply has decreased but demand from its three major uses has not decreased. As a result, RGP supply can become tight and its price relatively high. This has, at times, crushed margins for the chemical industry, particularly PGP producers.

11 The current propylene landscape: costs $1.00 $0.90 PGP RGP $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30

12 The changing propylene landscape: investments Every major chemical company in North America has announced investments to build or expand ethylene production using ethane feedstock. The second wave of announcements were about on-purpose propylene production, using propane as a feedstock rather than RGP. The technology of propane dehydrogenation is currently only used at one US facility but that will become the dominant method of production in coming years.

13 The changing propylene landscape: production North American PDH Plants Owner Location Capacity Start Date PetroLogistics Houston, Texas 600,000 mt/yr Operating Enterprise Mt Belvieu, Texas 750,000 mt/yr 3Q 2015 Dow Freeport, Texas 750,000 mt/yr 2015 C3P/Ascend Alvin, Texas not disclosed 2Q 2016 Williams Redwater Alberta, Canada 500,000 mt/yr 2Q 2016 Formosa Point Comfort, Texas 600,000 mt/yr 2016 PetroLogistics Houston, Texas 544,000 mt/yr 2017 (expansion) Enterprise Mt Belvieu, Texas not disclosed 2018 (planning) Dow not disclosed not disclosed 2018 (planning)

14 The changing propylene landscape: lower costs $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 PGP Propane $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13

15 The changing propylene landscape: production 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, NGL Extraction Capability Forecast (1000 BPD) 2013 High Case Forecast Possible Additional Marcellus/Utica 2013 Base Case Forecast 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

16 The changing propylene landscape: production Forecast of US Propane Supplies (1000 BPD) Gas Processing Propane Refining Propane Imports

17 The changing propylene landscape: production Propane currently is used in several markets: Heating/cooking fuel Petrochemical production Crop drying Vehicle fuel

18 The changing propylene landscape: production Propane trades at several hubs: Mont Belvieu, Texas Conway, Kansas Hattiesburg, Mississippi It is also easily transported internationally

19 The changing propylene landscape: production Operating US NGL Export Terminals Company Enterprise Targa Sunoco Logistics Location Houston Ship Channel Galena Park, Texas Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania (Philadelphia)

20 The changing propylene landscape: production Propylene is used in many markets: PGP to produce polypropylene CGP to produce solvents and intermediate chemicals Solvents include acetone, isopropanol Intermediates include propylene glycol, butanols, acrylonitrile

21 The changing propylene landscape: production Polymer grade propylene is currently traded at Mont Belvieu, Texas. Like propane that trades at Mont Belvieu, futures contracts have developed around these hub prices (CME, ICE). RGP does not currently have a corresponding futures contract.

22 The future propylene landscape: transparency With corresponding futures contracts and comparable liquid spot markets trading at the same hub, RISK MANAGEMENT is finally possible for the propylene supply chain. This will attract more players to the propylene market, and it will become more like the propane market over time.

23 Thank you!

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