Using the Labour Force Survey in a migration context A Home Office Perspective. 40 Years of the Labour Force Survey 28 th November 2013

Transcription

1 Using the Labour Force Survey in a migration context A Home Office Perspective 40 Years of the Labour Force Survey 28 th November 2013

2 Summary 1. What can the LFS tell us about migration? 2. How we look at foreign nationals in the labour market 3. How does the employment of foreign nationals affect the labour market? 4. How does the immigration system impact on foreign nationals in the labour market? 5. Opportunities to know more about foreign nationals in the labour market

3 What can the Labour Force Survey tell us about migration? The LFS provides us with the best source of information on the UK labour market, including the role of migration, over time. It provides data on who is working, which region and sector they are working in and what sort of job they do. Only the Census provides more comprehensive coverage of the population, but only once every ten years. Home Office recently added the WHYUK variable to look at the reason why people originally came to the UK. There are of course limitations in the LFS due to the sample size particularly in looking at changes in levels for smaller populations.

4 Why did people come to the UK? 8% 8% 46% Economic Student Family 7% 7% 6% 19% 26% Refugee Other No answer 21% 11% 39% EEA Migrants (2.3m) Non EEA Migrants (2.5m)

5 People who are born abroad are not all foreign nationals The LFS can produce data on a nationality or country of birth basis, but it is essential to consider the use to which analysis is put when choosing which variable to use. They are not equal. For long term socio economic outcomes for people who migrate, the number born abroad may be most relevant. If we are looking at impacts of immigration policy it is necessary to distinguish different types of access to the UK labour market which are nationality based (EU vs non EU). As the 2011 Census shows almost half (46%) of those residents of England and Wales who were born abroad now hold a British passport.

6 How we look at foreign nationals in the labour market Change in employment level compared to one year earlier, for UK nationals and foreign nationals Q Q3 2013

7 How we look at foreign nationals in the labour market The total growth in employment over the last year was 376,000, of which 93% is accounted for by UK nationals. Since the third quarter 2010, employment levels have risen by almost 0.8m, of which more than two thirds (68.5%) is accounted for by UK nationals The causes of changes in employment numbers are numerous: EU accession, Economic conditions, Changes in immigration policy, Education,skills and training, Welfare reform and so on

8 How the employment of foreign nationals affects the labour market? Government commissioned the independent Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) to look at the impacts of migration on the UK economy. The MAC s report, entitled Analysis of the Impacts of Migration, was published in January 2012 It used LFS to look at the impact across the economic cycle, using a spatial correlation approach and found: a tentative negative association between working age migrants and native employment when the economy is below full capacity, for non EU migrants and for the period additional non EU migrants may cautiously be associated with a reduction in employment of 23 native workers.

9 How does the LFS inform our understanding of policy impacts? We use LFS data, combined with other sources to inform policy analysis To estimate impacts of changes in the rules on particular groups Analyses of the impact of imposing a restriction on the salary level for skilled migrants or marriage sponsors Looking at where migrants are working and their penetration in different sectors How dependent is the Health Service or Food production on migrant labour How successful are different migrant groups in the Labour market, and their contribution to the economy Employment rates by country of birth Skill levels, wages, educational attainment

10 An example of the Home Office use of the LFS, taken from the Family Migration evidence and analysis report (Home Office, July 2011)

11 Opportunities to know more about foreign nationals in the labour market Other data: Census A wide range of data on demography and socio economic outcomes for people born abroad and foreign nationals, as at March 2011 Visas 41,000 skilled workers granted visas under Tier 2 (31,000 ICTs, 10,000 in Tier 2 General) plus 31,000 dependents in year to end June 2013 Almost half of Tier 2 visas are in the IT sector; and over half Indian nationals NINOs EU The number of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK from within the EU in 2012/13 was 385 thousand, an increase of 35 thousand (10%) on the previous year. Non EU The number of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK from outside the EU in 2012/13 was 177

12 Jon Simmons Head of Migration and Border Analysis, Home Office Science