The new epoch in the Barents Sea - the way ahead. Bente Nyland Director General

Transcription

1 The new epoch in the Barents Sea - the way ahead Bente Nyland Director General

2 Overview Status and resource overview Barents Sea Exploration drilling The way ahead what next? Nordland VII and Troms II Four scenarios for the future 7/3/2009 2

3 Barents Sea - Status April 2008 Field: Snøhvit LNG: 7222/6-1 Obesum 191 mill Sm 3 o.e. Discovery in planning phase: 7122/7-1 Goliat: 31 mill Sm 3 o.e. Discoveries to follow up: Snøhvit 7125/4-1 Nucula 7222/6-1 Obesum Exploration: 7125/4-1 Nucula Drilled per date: 77 exploration wells 2008: 4-5 exploration wells 7122/6-1 Goliat Melkøya $ Hammerfest Vadsø 7/3/ Tromsø Kirkenes

4 Recoverable resources Barents Sea 7/3/2009 4

5 Milliarder Sm3 o.e. 4,5 4,0 3,5 Discovered, recoverable resources distributed geographically Produced Remaining reserves Resources in fields Resources in discoveries 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 7/3/ North Sea Norwegian Sea Barents Sea

6 Accumulated resources mill Sm3 o.e. Resource growth Total NCS vs Barents Sea Norwegian continental shelf Barents Sea Ressurtilvekst-hele sokkelen Ressurtilvekst-Barentshavet 7/3/2009 6

7 Accumulated resources mill Sm3 o.e. Resource growth Barents Sea 400 Goliat 300 Nucula /3/2009 7

8 Barents Sea Resource growth vs exploration wells 7/3/2009 8

9 Barents Sea southern part Exploration wells PL 228 (StatoilHydro) 7122/6-1S Obesum 2008 PL 394 (StatoilHydro) Arenaria 2008 PL 395 (StatoilHydro) Ververis 2008 PL 228 (StatoilHydro) Caurus 2008 PL 097 (Statoil) 7120/6-2 S appraisal PL 064 (Statoil) 7120/8-4 Askeladd Beta /3/ PL 229 (Eni) appraisal Goliat north Tromsø PL 229 (Eni) 7122/7-5 A - Goliat 2006/07 - appraisal PL 110C (StatoilHydro) 7123/4-1 S & A Drilling appraisal Tornerose Melkøya $ Hammerfest PL 393 (StatoilHydro) 2008/09 appraisal Nucula PL 393 (Hydro) 7125/4-1 Nucula 2007 Vadsø Kirkenes Dry well Gas discovery Oil- oil/gas discovery Ongoing- or not spudded wells Predefined area

10 Goliat the next field in production Oil: 28 mill Sm 3 /Gas: 3 bill Sm 3 Distance to shore 65 km from Sørøya Selection of concept onshore or offshore solution? Technology - long distance transport of oil NPD concern and focus Area solution Electrification Gas and future IOR option Socio-economics Not exclude a possible solution before it has been evaluated Emergency preparedness 7/3/ PDO late 2008?

11 The Exploration Challenge Liquids Gas Barents Sea 30 % North Sea 35 % Norwegian Sea 35 % Uoppdagede ressurser norsk kontinentalsokkel Undiscovered Resources NCS millioner Sm3 o.e Norskehavet /3/2009 P90 Forventning P10 11 Nordsjøen

12 License awards Barents Sea 7/3/

13 Awards in Predefined Areas /1 and 2 Lundin 40% RWE Dea 30% Det norske oljeselskap 30% 7121/2 NOIL Energy 40% (O) Discover 30% Aker Exploration 30% 7120/4, 5 and 6 Lundin 40% (O) Aker Exploration 20% Noreco 20% Det norske oljeselskap 20% 7120/10 and 11 StatoilHydro 33,53% (O) Total 18,40% Gaz de France 12% Hess 3,26% RWE Dea 2,81% Petoro 30% 7019/2, 3, 7119/11, 12 and 7120/10 StatoilHydro 33,53% (O) Total 18,40% Gaz de France 12% Hess 3,26% RWE Dea 2,81% Petoro 30% 7122/9 Eni Norge 65% (O) StatoilHydro 20% NOIL Energy 15% 7120/11 and 12 Eni Norge 40% (O) StatoilHydro 40% Petoro 20% 7/3/

14 20 th licensing round Barents Sea: nominated blocks 7/3/

15 20 th licensing round Barents Sea: NPD recommended blocks 20 th round schedule: Nomination: Public hearing: Announcement: before summer 2008 Application deadline: 4Q 2008 Awards: 2Q /3/

16 Exploration challenges ahead APA 2008, 2009? 20. licensing round 2009 Making new areas available Troms II, Nordland VII, Nordland VI? Northern Barents Sea? Disputed zone with Russia? Co-existence with fisheries area conflict Distance from shore, more sensitive areas, smaller dicoveries.. On average: 18 years from award to production, 11 years from discovery to production. 7/3/

17 Integrated Management Plan seismic acquisition by NPD : Budget: 70 MNOK 2615 km 2D data 2008: Budget: 140 MNOK 2D and 3D data to be acquired 2009: Further data acquisition Conclude new mapping of the resource potential in Nordland VII and Troms II 2010: Revision of the management plan 7/3/

18 Undiscovered resources Below expectation Above expectation Four scenarioes possible futures full gas B technolab Basis blood, sweat and tears D Low oil and gas prices High oil and gas prices 7/3/

19 Scenario B: technolab High oil and gas prices Stable investments focus on R & D Finding above expectation oil & gas Agreements with Russia Cooperation in the Arctic creates new centers of activities Focus on environment drives gas demand up faster than expected Norway s aid to global emissions: Gas deliveries to replace coal Technologies for CO 2 -capture and transport to field to increase recoveries of oil and gas. Economics driven by high prices and significantly lowering costs Providing energy with green certificates /3/

20 Scenario C: Sorry, we re Closed The low prices slow down the industry few and only small fields found Norway delays production to meet Kyoto demands in No new areas are opened The coastal zone is closed to the industry 7/3/

21 Four scenarioes for NCS 7/3/

22 Gas transport and sales 150 Gassproduksjon 2007: 93 milliarder Sm³ Prognose 2011: 116 milliarder Sm³ Ormen Lange Snøhvit 100 milliarder Sm 3 billion Sm 3 Oseberg Åsgard Troll 50 Ekofisk Frigg 0 7/3/

23 Export of Norwegian gas mrd Sm 3 Gas distributers to Europe Russia (26%) 2. Norway (18%) 3. UK (16%) 4. Netherland (13%) 5. Alger (11%) 7/3/

24 Conclusion High activity Positive exploration results Renewed interest for the area Infrastructure are coming but need for techology Access to acreage is important for future development 7/3/