Economic Outlook for Canada s Energy Sector. Williston Basin Petroleum Conference Supply Chain Forum April 28, 2015
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1 Economic Outlook for Canada s Energy Sector Williston Basin Petroleum Conference Supply Chain Forum April 28, 2015
2 Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers Who we are: Represent large and small companies that produce about 90 per cent of Canada s natural gas and crude oil. Part of a national industry with revenues of about $110 billion per year. Mission: Our mission, on behalf of the Canadian upstream oil and gas industry, is to advocate for and enable: Economic competitiveness; and, Safe, environmentally and socially responsible performance. 2
3 The Oil and Natural Gas Industry A Key Driving Force in the Canadian Economy Industry investment in 2014 was $73 billion Largest single private sector investor in Canada Payments to governments average about $18 billion/year Oil and natural gas account for more than 20% of Canada s merchandise exports Industry employed more than 550,000 in Canada (direct & indirect) last year Approximately 2,400 Canadian companies outside Alberta provide goods and service to the oil sands sector
4 Crude Oil and Natural Gas prices Crude Oil Prices (WTI NYMEX) $US per barrel Natural Gas Prices (AECO Daily Spot Price) $Cdn/mcf Jan 20/ Jan 20/ '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 14 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
5 Capital Investment in Canada Combined Capital Investment Oil Sands WCSB Conventional $ billion % -25% $ billion % WCSB Conventional Oil Sands
6 Total Wells Drilled in Western Canada Dry/Susp. Gas Oil 30% decrease in drilling in 2015 due to announced reductions in capital investment E Alberta 5,961 4,100 British Columbia Saskatchewan 3,356 2,380 Manitoba E = 10, F = 7, E 2015F Source CAPP. Based on Rig Release E=estimate; F=forecast
7 Impact of Declining Commodity Prices in 2015 Industry revenues down one third From $150 billion in 2014 to $100 billion in 2015 Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) capital investment down 33% ($23 billion) From $69 billion in 2014 to $46 billion in 2015: Well drilling down 30% (3,150 wells) from 2014 Oil and gas share of TSX down from 20% in 2014 to 12% in January Capital Investment by Industry (2013) $ billions Upstream Oil & Gas Source:: Statistics Canada Utilities Transportation & Warehouse Manufacturing Finance & Insurance 7
8 8 Western Canada Conventional Production
9 9 Canadian Oil Sands & Conventional Production
10 Impact of Oil Price on Drilling Activity & Production Oil Price Production Profile 10
11 11 Canadian & US Crude Oil Pipeline Proposals
12 Regional Oil Sands Supply Chain Information - Canada Total: 2370 *excluding Alberta
13 Oil and Gas Industry in Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan 2014 crude oil production average million barrels (514,000 b/d) Up 5.5 per cent from previous record of 177 million barrels in Fuelled by 10 per cent growth in light production. Approximately 3,400 wells were drilled in 2014, up from 3,200 in 2013 Activity is expected to fall to 2,400 wells in 2015 reflecting softer prices. Oil and gas sector contributed $1.5 billion to government revenues in 2014/2015 fiscal year Industry s capital spending was $5 billion in 2014 Industry invested $25 billion over the last five years. Just over 190 Saskatchewan companies provided $300MM in goods and services to the oil sands over two years 13
14 Saskatchewan Production Light & Heavy 2013 Forecast Light Heavy 14
15 In Summary The current oil and gas price climate is very challenging. Demand and supply imbalances combined with infrastructure and transportation limitations continue to contribute to the challenges we face today. Events in other oil producing countries will also impact price / future trends in the industry. Industry s capital investment expected to continue on a downward trend in Budget cuts and delay / cancellation of long-term projects.
16 Summary continued These challenging times create some opportunities. Companies are looking at opportunities to create operational and logistic efficiencies. The decline in activity is releasing demand pressure on labour and services. Seeing up to 25 per cent reduction in service costs. Current market conditions will not last. Industry has been through many downturns and recovery. Oil and natural gas industry is innovative and flexible and will discover opportunities to improve competitiveness.
17
18 18 Thank You
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