Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends. Waco Business League April 10, 2012 Waco, TX
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1 Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends Waco Business League April 10, 2012 Waco, TX
2 Growing States, Population* 2010 Population* Numerical Change Percent Change United States 281,421, ,745,538 27,323, % Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293, % California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382, % Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818, % Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501, % North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486, % Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261, % 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts.
3 Year* Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, Population Numerical Change** Percent Change Natural Increase Percent Change Due to Net Migration ,711, ,579,677 1,868, ,196,730 1,617, ,229,191 3,032, ,986,510 2,757, ,851,820 3,865, ,782,302 3,930, ,145,561 4,293, ,674, , All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. ** Change is from previous decade/time period Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center. 3
4 Components of Change Texas and McLennan County, 2010 to 2011 Geographic Area Total Population Change Natural Increase Vital Events Births Deaths Total Net Migration International Domestic Texas 529, , , , ,956 93, ,315 McLennan County 3,658 1,792 4,197 2,405 1, ,378 49% 51% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.
5 Population Change in McLennan County, County McLennan 170, , , , , , , Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Counts
6 McLennan County Population by Year, , , , , , , , , ,000 McLennan County 6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.
7 Demographic Characteristics of Waco, McLennan County and Texas Waco McLennan County Texas Population, , ,906 25,145,561 Population, percent change, 2000 to % 10.0% 20.6% Population, , ,517 20,851,820 Persons under 5 years, percent, % 7.1% 7.7% Persons under 18 years, percent, % 25.4% 27.3% Persons 65 years and over, percent, % 12.5% 10.3% Female persons, percent, % 51.4% 50.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Counts 2000 and
8 Race and Ethnic Characteristics of Waco, McLennan County and Texas, 2010 McLennan Waco County Texas Percent White 59.2% 69.8% 70.4% Percent Black 21.5% 14.8% 11.8% Percent American Indian and Alaska Native 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% Percent Asian 1.8% 1.4% 3.8% Percent Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Percent 2 or More Races 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% Percent Hispanic (any race) 29.6% 23.6% 37.6% Percent White Not Hispanic 45.8% 58.9% 45.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Count
9 Businesses by Ownership and Retail Sales for Waco, McLennan County andtexas Waco McLennan County Texas Total number of firms, ,912 16,888 2,164,852 Black-owned firms, percent, 2007 S 5.1% 7.1% American Indian- and Alaska Native-owned firms, percent, % 0.7% 0.9% Asian-owned firms, percent, 2007 S 1.6% 5.3% Hispanic-owned firms, percent, 2007 S 8.9% 20.7% Women-owned firms, percent, % 28.4% 28.2% Retail sales per capita, 2007 $16,068 $12,892 $13,061 S suppressed value due to small values Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts. 9
10 Housing and Households for Waco, McLennan County and Texas Waco McLennan County Texas Housing units, ,452 95,124 9,977,436 Homeownership rate, % 60.1% 64.8% Housing units in multi-unit structures, percent, % 24.3% 24.1% Median value of owner-occupied housing units, $86,600 $101,000 $123,500 Households, ,349 82,998 8,539,206 Persons per household, Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts. 10
11 Income and Employment Change for Waco, McLennan County and Texas Waco McLennan County Texas Per capita money income in past 12 months (2010 dollars), $17,323 $20,652 $24,870 Median household income, $31,288 $40,672 $49,646 Percent below poverty level, % 20.5% 16.8% Percent change private nonfarm employment, % 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts. 11
12 Income and Employment Change for Waco, McLennan County and Texas, Waco McLenna n County Texas Percent living in same house 1+ years 75.6% 81.1% 81.5% Percent foreign born 10.5% 8.2% 16.1% Percent age 5+ where language other than English spoken at home 23.6% 18.2% 34.2% Percent age 25+ that are High school graduates 75.5% 80.3% 80.0% Percent age 25+ with Bachelor's degree or higher 20.3% 20.6% 25.8% Mean travel time to work (minutes) for workers age Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts. 12
13 Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, , ,000 International State-to-State 150, ,000 50, to to to to to to to to to 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates.
14 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5% 23% 28% 44% Net domestic migration Percent of Migrants to Texas by Race and Ethnicity, % 8% 15% 50% 24% International migration (848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants) 52% of all migrants were international 12% 40% 33% Total 67% of all migrants Other Black Hispanic White Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.
15 States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010 State Estimate (thousands) Range California 2,550 (2,350-2,750) Texas 1,650 (1,450-1,850) Florida 825 ( ) New York 625 ( ) New Jersey 550 ( ) Illinois 525 ( ) Georgia 425 ( ) Arizona 400 ( ) 6.5% of Texas 2010 Population Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011). 15
16 Estimated Domestic Migration ( ) by County as a Percentage of 2000 Population -20 to -45% -19 to -10% -9 to -5% -4 to 0% 1 to 5 % 6 to 20% 21 to 30% 31 to 65% Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 16
17 Estimated International Migration ( ) by County as a Percentage of 2000 Population Legend 0-1% 1-2.5% % 3.5-5% 5-10% Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 17
18 18
19 Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and Hispanic or Latino 32% NH Other 4% NH Black 11% NH White 53% Hispanic or Latino 38% NH Other 6% NH White 45% NH Black 11% Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts.
20 Texas White (non Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, Population White (non Hispanic) Hispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census Count. Age 20
21 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Asian, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female White, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Asian, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census Count.
22 Texas Population Pyramid by White (non Hispanic), 2010 Male White, Non Hispanic Female White, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census Count. 22
23 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year Male Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Asian, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Asian, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 200, , ,000 50, , , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census Count. 23
24 McLennan County Population Pyramid, yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs yrs 5 9 yrs 0 4 yrs Males Females 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census, SF1. 24
25 Total Population by County, 2010 p 82-10,000 10,001-50,000 50, , , , ,001-1,000,000 1,000,001-4,100,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census Count. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 25
26 Numeric Change of Total Population by County, , ,000 10,001-50,000 50, , , ,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census Counts. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 26
27 Projected Population Growth in Texas, Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections. Year 27
28 Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Anglo Black Hispanic Other 0% Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, Migration Scenario. 28
29 Projected Population by Texas Counties, Source: Texas State Data Center. Vintage 2008 Population Projections, Migration Scenario. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
30 Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties,
31 Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more) for Texas, % 19% 15% 9% 6% 8% 67% 71% College and Greater Less Than High School Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1 Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. 31
32 Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and Percent No High School Diploma High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
33 Percent of Persons Aged 25+ without HS Degree Texas McLennan County Source: Alexander Marre, ERS, USDA 33
34 Percent of Persons Aged 25+ with College Degree Texas McLennan County Source: Alexander Marre, ERS, USDA 34
35 Grade 9 Longitudinal Graduation, Completion, and Dropout Rates, Class of 2010 Graduated Continued Received GED Dropped out Graduated or continued Graduated or continued, or received GED District Class Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Texas 314, , , , , , , Axtell ISD < Bosqueville ISD Bruceville Eddy ISD < China Spring ISD < Connally ISD < Crawford ISD < La Vega ISD < Lorena ISD < Mart ISD < McGregor ISD < Midway ISD Moody ISD < Riesel ISD Robinson ISD Waco ISD West ISD < Source: Texas Education Agency 35
36 District name High School Graduates ( ) Enrolled in College the Following Year Total high school graduates In state Out ofstate Percent Texas 264, ,548 14,178 56% McLennan county 2,347 1, % Axtell ISD* % Bosqueville ISD* % Bruceville Eddy ISD* % China spring ISD % Connally ISD* % Crawford ISD* % La Vega ISD* % Lorena ISD* % Mart ISD* % McGregor ISD* % Midway ISD % Moody ISD* % Riesel ISD % Robinson ISD % Waco ISD % West ISD % * A small number of students in these districts enrolled in college out-of-state but numbers were masked to comply with FERPA Source: Texas Education Agency, PEIMS 36
37 Demographics and Destiny 37
38 Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (512) or (210) Internet: 38
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