Weather Hazards and Forests in NC

Transcription

1 Weather Hazards and Forests in NC Ryan Boyles State Climatologist North Carolina State t University it ryan_boyles@ncsu.edu NC Forestry Association Annual Meeting Asheville, NC October 4, 2012

2 About the State Climate Office Public Service Center at NCSU Statewide public resource for weather and climate information and services Extension of research to community applications Research on NC weather and climate Outreach Education NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

3 Challenging Climate Highly variable climate Daily, seasonal, multi-year, decadal variations Only cool season has any predictability You name the weather, NC experiences it* Every kind of severe weather Few other locations face these challenges Extremes from day to day, over short distances NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

4 Extremes in NC Asheville Driest Weather Station inches (annual average) Lake Toxaway Wettest Weather Station inches (annual avg.) NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

5 Why is Weather & Climate Important? Impacts everyday life Economy is very sensitive At least 1/3 of economic activity directly sensitive to weather and climate $100B annual in NC Impacts to various sectors: Agriculture, re energy production, reservoirs, city planning, infrastructure, tourism/recreation, insurance, wildfires, air/water quality NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

6 Weather vs. Climate Weather = short-term occurrence Climate = long-term weather frequency Durham Bulls Individual Stats (Batting) Player POS AB AVG Luke Scott DH Henry Wrigley 1B Chris Gimenez C Leslie Anderson 1B Stephen Vogt C Brandon Guyer RF Nevin Ashley C Rich Thompson LF Cole Figueroa 2B Jeff Keppinger 2B Matt Mangini 1B NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

7 What does it mean for NC? NC is sensitive to weather Lots of Hazards Enormous exposure in agriculture, natural resources, tourism NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

8 What forces our climate? Energy Balance Earth s complex surface Earth s atmospheric composition Our Location on Earth NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

9 Insert energy balance figure NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

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11 Latitude Topography p Proximity to Oceans NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

12 RESULT We get it all Insert collage of hazards photos NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

13 Variations in Climate Short-term Earth s surface Winter Summer Longer-term Atmospheric composition Earth s surface NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

14 El Niño Ocean Temps you are here NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

15 Typical El Niño Winter Jet Stream Storms, moisture track along Gulf of Mexico & east of Appalachian Mountains Several coastal storms Forest Biology Research NC EPA-NIEHS Forestry Cooperative Association Climate Annual Change - Asheville, Advisory Workshop, NC Council - October June Meeting, 17, 4, September 30,

16 El Niño Winter Precipitation it ti Decreased Precip Increased Precip Forest Biology Research NC Forestry Cooperative Association Annual - Asheville, Advisory NC Council - October Meeting, 4, 2012 September 30,

17 La Niña - Ocean Anomalies you are here NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

18 La Niña Winter Jet Stream Storms, moisture track along Ohio River Valley & west of Appalachian Mountains Few to zero coastal storms Forest Biology Research NC Forestry Cooperative Association Annual - Asheville, Advisory NC Council - October Meeting, 4, 2012 September 30,

19 La Niña Winter Precipitation it ti Increased Precip Decreased Precip Forest Biology Research NC Forestry Cooperative Association Annual - Asheville, Advisory NC Council - October Meeting, 4, 2012 September 30,

20 Bermuda High Pressure Strength, location is crucial to amount of warm season precipitation p in SEUS drought Unpredictable beyond few days in advance NCSU Alumni Reception - Asheville, NC - July 20,

21 Typical Summer Conditions H NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

22 Typical Summer Drought (2007) Drought H NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

23 Climate and Forests Complexity help drive forest diversity Growth, productivity due to warm, moist conditions Hazards create risk NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

24 Climate Risks to Forests Ice Drought Thunderstorms /Lightning Wind NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

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28 Hail? Hail Events: NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

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30 Tornadoes NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

31 Tornadoes? NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

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33 Hurricanes NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

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35 Pests Disease and Insects Tree disease, insects impacted by weather NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

36 Long-term Changes Atmospheric Composition Cloud type and amounts Surface land/ocean land use vegetation ice cover NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

37 Changing Impacts to Forests? Possible increase in drought, lightning activity Fewer, more intense hurricanes Already experience almost every climate hazards Known management strategies t will continue to be important NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

38 Climate Challenges in NC Challenges in monitoring, predicting impacts Hourly, daily decision making Seasonal, long term planning NC is vulnerable to our extreme weather and climate Good planning can increase resilience NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

39 Climate Science Needs Observations Source for all scientific advancement Must be local, accurate Applications Tools to let public, businesses use science Education Lots of climate awareness, little climate education NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

40 How do we meet the challenge? Integrated sciences Multi-disciplinary Extension, research, education Training for undergraduate, graduate students Applied science research Doesn t end with a science paper NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

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44 How do we monitor and detect? Remote Sensing (Satellite, Radar) Surface sensors Proxies Tree rings Ice cores Soil sediment cores NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,

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49 How do we predict? Models Weather Seasonal climate Long-term climate Downscaling Validation NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4,