Business Opportunities in Brazil

Transcription

1 Business Opportunities in Brazil Brazilian Embassy London, June 23 th 2015 Emilio Chernavsky Advisor Department of Planning and Strategic Investments Marcos Ferrari Deputy Chief Economist on Microeconomic Policy Economic Advisory Office Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management 1

2 Participation of private sector in public services in Brazil Roads Railroads Ports Bus terminals Airports Public transportation Sanitation and sewage Prisons Hospitals

3 Participation of private sector in public services in Brazil Federal State Local Without public payment With public payment With exclusive public payment 3

4 PROGRAM OF INVESTMENT IN LOGISTICS

5 GROWTH AND INVESTMENT SCENARIO Resuming growth requires more investment. Investment requires: 1. Macroeconomic stability 2. Regulatory predictability 3. Private sector participation 4. Public and private sectors coordination 5

6 INVESTMENT RATE 46,3 Selected countries and Areas (average from 2010 to 2014 as % of GDP ) 29,7 27,7 23,7 22,7 22,1 21,6 20,8 20,3 20,3 20,1 19,9 18,5 18,4 16,4 Source: IBGE and OECD 6

7 INVESTMENT RATE Selected countries and Areas (average from 2010 to 2014 as % of GDP) Machinery and Equipment Civil Construction China* South Korea Chile Japan Mexico Brazil Germany Australia USA Italy Euro Area Spain France United Kingdom Canada 10,4 16,0 10,2 9,0 8,0 7,4 7,2 7,1 6,9 6,5 6,3 5,9 5,2 4,2 4,0 China* Australia Mexico South Korea Canada Spain Chile France Euro Area Brazil Japan Germany Italy United Kingdom USA 16,7 25,4 14,3 14,3 13,4 12,4 12,4 11,2 10,5 10,4 9,3 9,3 8,7 7,9 7,1 Source: IBGE and OECD * Average from 2000 to

8 GRAIN PRODUCTION Growth : 129,8% Annual Average Growth : 6,2% milhões de toneladas Millions of tons * Source: IBGE. * Forecast from April

9 25,5 27,6 27,7 26,0 29,1 35,6 40,6 45,7 49,7 56,9 22,7 21,4 20,8 20,7 22,0 70,3 81,5 23,5 16,3 87,0 88,2 14,8 93,4 19,4 19,5 23,7 26,4 26,4 27,8 29,2 AIR TRAVEL PASSENGERS Growth : 154,3% Annual Average Growth : 7,2% Billion RPK* Doméstico Domestic Internacional International Source: ANAC * Revenue Passenger Kilometer: indicator of traffic calculated by multiplying the number of revenue-paying passengers aboard the vehicle by the distance travelled. 10

10 VEHICLE FLEET Growth : 184,6% Annual Average Growth : 7,8% milhões Millions de veículos of Vehicles Automóvel Light vehicles Ônibus, Buses, trucks caminhões and others* e demais* Source : Denatran. * Bus, truck, haul truck, pick-up truck, light truck, motorcycle and utility truck. 11

11 CARGO HANDLING IN PORTS Growth : 99,9% Annual Average Growth : 5,56% milhões de toneladas Millions of tons Portos Public Públicos Ports TUPs Private Terminals (TUP) Source: ANTAQ. Data until 2009 obtained from Annual Reports and from 2010 on from the Sistema de Desempenho Portuário. 12

12 GUIDELINES FOR INFRASTRUCTURE CONCESSIONS Dialogue with state governors to support regional development Consultation with the private sector to meet conditions for economic recovery Improvement of the regulatory frameworks Financial gain matching costs and construction risks Long-term financing availability with greater participation of private banks and capital markets 13

13 NEW STAGE OF CONCESSIONS Investment R$ 198,4 billions R$ 69,2 bi From 2019 R$ 129,2 bi 14

14 NEW STAGE OF CONCESSIONS Investment R$ 198,4 billions Roads R$ 66,1 bi Railways R$ 86,4 bi Ports R$ 37,4 bi Airports R$ 8,5 bi 15

15 ROADS

16 ROAD CONCESSIONS Weighted Average Toll Rate R$ 10, km Granted on 6 roads Weighted Average Toll Rate R$ 3, km Granted on 8 roads Weighted Average Toll Rate R$ 3, km Granted on 7 roads As of May/15 Toll rate weighted by segment length 17

17 NEW STAGE OF CONCESSIONS Roads Estimated Investment R$ 66,1 billions 5 auctions in 2015 R$ 19,6 bi 11 auctions in 2016 R$ 31,2 bi New Investment in Existing Concessions R$ 15,3 bi 18

18 AUCTIONS IN km of roads in 7 states R$ 19,6 billions in investment: duplication, additional lanes, signaling Auction for the cheapest toll Financing led by BNDES Partnership with commercial banks and capital markets BR-364/060/MT/GO BR-163/MT/PA BR-364/GO/MG BR-101/RJ Rio-Niterói Bridge BR-476/153/282/480/PR/SC Auctioned Auction in

19 AUCTIONS IN km of roads in 10 states R$ 31,2 billion in investment: road duplications, additional lanes, etc. Integration with the federal road network segments under concession and those to be auctioned in 2015 BR-346/RO/MT BR-262/MS BR-267/MS BR-470/282/SC BR-101/232/PE BR-101/BA BR-262/281/MG BR-101/493/465/RJ/SP BR-280/SC BR-101/SC BR-101/116/290/386/RS 24

20 BR-101/232/PE Auctions in 2016 PI CE PB Recife Divisa PB/PE PE Cruzeiro do Nordeste BR-101BR-232 Caruaru Divisa PE/AL BA AL Road in PE Total length: 564 km Estimated investment: R$ 4,2 billion Goals: construction of Recife s metropolitan beltway, better access to the Port of Suape and road duplication until Cruzeiro do Nordeste 25

21 BR-101/BA Auctions in 2016 TO PI Feira de Santana BA Gandu GO MG Road in BA Total length: 199 km Estimated investment: R$ 1,6 billion Goals: Duplicate segment Feira de Santana/Gandu and improve cargo transportation between the Northeast and Southeast regions 26

22 NEW INVESTMENTS IN EXISTING CONCESSIONS R$ 15,3 billion (2 ongoing projects and 9 under analysis) BR-163/MT duplication R$ 0,8 bi AC AM BR-153/SP duplication R$ 4 bi RO RR BR-116/PR/SC duplication R$ 2,5 bi BR-290/RS Freeway Additional lane - R$ 0,2 bi PA AP BR-381/SP/MG additional lane R$ 0,6 bi Sinop MS MT PR GO SP DF TO Curitiba SC MA MG PI Belo Horizonte BA RJ ES CE PE BR-324/116/BA additional lane R$ 0,4 bi RN PB AL SE BR-393/RJ duplication R$ 1,3 bi BR-040/RJ Subida da Serra R$ 1,1 bi BR-101/RJ duplications R$ 1,2 bi BR-116/SP/RJ Dutra - Serra das Araras, Marginal Roads R$ 2,3 bi Under analysis Under construction contract signed RS BR-101/376/116/SC/PR Additional lane R$ 0,9 bi 36

23 RAILROADS

24 RAILROAD INVESTMENT Public and Private km built km built km built 38

25 IMPROVING THE CONCESSION MODEL Ensure the right of passage in order to integrate previous and new concessions Foster competition in the verticalized operator model Make use of previous public investment in the North- South axis R$ 12,7 billion in the period Allow private sector to present infrastructure projects through the Requests For Proposals (RFP) Procedure Adopt either the grant of rights for the highest bidder model or the shared investment model 39

26 NEW CONCESSIONS STAGE Railroads Estimated Investment R$ 86,4 billion Norte-Sul Palmas-Anápolis Barcarena-Açailândia R$ 7,8 bi Norte-Sul Anápolis-Estrela D Oeste-Três Lagoas R$ 4,9 bi Lucas do Rio Verde- Miritituba (PMI) R$ 9,9 bi Public hearing Rio-Vitória R$ 7,8 bi Bioceânica segment in Brazil R$ 40 bi New investment in existing concessions R$ 16 bi 40

27 NORTE-SUL RAILWAY Palmas/TO-Anápolis/GO and Barcarena/MA-Açailândia/PA AM Barcarena MA PA Açailândia RO TO Palmas PI MT BA Anápolis GO Railroad through GO/TO/MA/PA Full Length: km Estimated investment: R$ 7,8 billion Goal: finish Northern segment of the North-South corridor, with exits to the North Arch Ports 41

28 NEW INVESTMENT IN EXISTING CONCESSIONS Estimated investment : R$ 16 billion Projects under negotiation with concessionaires: Expansion of the traffic capacity New yards Reduction of urban interferences Duplications Construction of new segments Signaling and railway equipment Expansion of the Fleet AC MAIN EXISTING CONCESSIONS AM RO RR VALE Corumbá VLI/FCA MRS ALL Uruguaiana Rondonópolis Dourados MT Alto Araguaia MS Cascavel Panorama Chapecó Santa Maria RS AP PA PR SC Passo Fundo Rio Grande Aguiarnópolis Anápolis Palmas GO Estrela D Oeste SP Porto Alegre DF Paranaguá MA Açailândia Estreito Corinto BA PI Caetité Guanambi MG CE PE Salvador ES Vitória Belo Horizonte RN SE PB Campo dos Goytacazes RJ Rio de Janeiro Santos AL 46

29 PORTS

30 NEW CONCESSIONS STAGE Ports Estimated Investment R$ 37,4 billion 50 new leases R$ 11,9 bi 63 new TUPs R$ 14,7 bi 24 Anticipated Lease Renewals R$ 10,8 bi 50

31 LEASES Block 2 Launch 21 terminals Suape, Aratu, Rio de Janeiro, São Sebastião, Santos, Paranaguá, São Francisco do Sul, Manaus, Santana and Itaqui Investment of R$ 7,2 billion Grant of rights for the highest bidder Auction expected for 1 st half of 2016 Manaus Santana Itaqui Aratu Suape Type Port Investment Container and General Cargo Manaus, Paranaguá, Santana, Suape (2), São Sebastião and São Francisco do Sul 3,2 bi Mineral Bulk Itaqui, Paranaguá, Aratu and Suape (2) 1,8 bi Grain Suape, Santos, Rio de Janeiro and Paranaguá (3) 1,8 bi Liquid Bulk Santos 0,1 bi Cellulose Paranaguá and Itaqui 0,3 bi Total 7,2 billion 53 Rio de Janeiro Santos São Sebastião Paranaguá São Francisco do Sul

32 BLOCK 2 Suape Containers TERMINAL NAME CITY STATE ESTIMATED INVESTMENT CARGO TYPE (EXPECTED ) FUTURE HANDLING CAPACITY (TON) DURATION SUA05 IPOJUCA PE 981,1 million Contêineres 10,9 million 25 years SUA05 Details on all the terminals will be available at 54

33 AUTHORIZATIONS FOR TUPS 2015 Authorization for Private Use Terminals (TUPs) in 16 states TUPs under analysis Investment (R$ billion) 63 14,7 55

34 NEW INVESTMENT IN EXISTING LEASES Lease extension for Public Ports Terminals in 9 states Requests under analysis Investment (R$ billion) 24 10,8 56

35 AIRPORTS

36 INVESTMENT IN AIRPORTS 6 airport concessions Investment of R$ 26 billion São Gonçalo do Amarante RN Brasília DF Guarulhos SP Confins MG Viracopos SP Galeão RJ 5 international airport operators in the Brazilian market increasing efficiency and improving services and infrastructure 58

37 INVESTMENT IN AIRPORTS New Airport Concessions Expand infrastructure Create new regional hubs Increase passenger satisfaction with airport operations Bring innovation and know how from international operators Foster tourism Improve cargo transportation Concessions of delegated regional airports Restructuring and modernizing Infraero 59

38 NEW CONCESSIONS STAGE Airports Estimated investment R$ 8,5 billion Fortaleza R$ 1,8 bi Salvador R$ 3 bi Florianópolis R$ 1,1 bi Porto Alegre R$ 2,5 bi Regional Delegated Airports R$ 78 mi 60

39 FORTALEZA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT Pinto Martins 12 th busiest airport in Brazil and the 3 rd in the Northeast Region Total Passengers in 2014: 6,5 million Main investment: aircraft apron and passenger terminal expansion Estimated Investment: R$ 1,8 billion 61

40 SALVADOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT Dep. Luiz Eduardo Magalhães 8 th busiest airport in Brazil and the 1 st in the Northeast Region Total Passengers in 2014: 9,2 million Main investment: passenger terminal expansion and new runway Estimated Investment: R$ 3 billion 62

41 FINANCING PROVISIONS

42 LONG TERM FINANCING BNDES will remain in a relevant role in financing infrastructure expansion Banks and capital markets participation will be expanded Operators will be required to invest their own capital New opportunities for institutional investors, both domestic and foreign New instruments for risk management and mitigation 68

43 BNDES FINANCING CONDITIONS Roads Issuing at least 10% in infrastructure bonds increases TLJP financing share from 35% to 45% ROADS BNDES TJLP + 1,5% p.a. + credit risk BNDES other sources + 1,5% p.a. + credit risk No bonds At least (10%) in bonds At most (25%) in bonds 35% 45% 45% 35% 15% 0% Equity + Cashflow 30% 30% 30% 69

44 BNDES FINANCING CONDITIONS Ports Issuing at least 10% in infrastructure bonds increases TLJP financing share from 25% to 35% PORTS BNDES TJLP + 1,5% p.a. + credit risk BNDES other sources + 1,5% p.a. + credit risk No bonds At least (10%) in bonds At most (35%) in bonds 25% 35% 35% 45% 25% 0% Equity + Cashflow 30% 30% 30% 70

45 BNDES FINANCING CONDITIONS Airports Issuing at least 15% in infrastructure bonds increases TLJP financing share from 15% to 30% AIRPORTS BNDES TJLP + 1,5% p.a. + credit risk BNDES other sources + 1,5% p.a. + credit risk No bonds At least (15%) in bonds At most (35%) in bonds 15% 30% 35% 55% 25% 0% Equity + Cashflow 30% 30% 30% 71

46 BNDES FINANCING CONDITIONS Railroads For railroads, BNDES will be able to finance up to 70% based on TJLP and up to 20% based on market rates, regardless of whether infrastructure bonds have been issued RAILROADS No bonds 20% in bonds BNDES TJLP + 1,5% p.a. + credit risk 70% 70% BNDES other sources + 1,5% p.a. + credit risk 20% 0% Equity + Cashflow 10% 10% 72

47 Thank you! 73