GLOBAL HYDROCARBON SUPPLY

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1 NGLs

2 GLOBAL HYDROCARBON SUPPLY CRUDE/CONDENSATE 86 MM BOEPD 11% NGLs 10 MM BOEPD 22% NATURAL GAS 56 MM BOEPD 20% US Non-OPEC, w/o US OPEC 2

3 Aug 2013 US$ per Metric Ton US ENERGY PRICES RELATIVE TO WTI CRUDE OIL (100) (200) (300) (400) (500) (600) (700) 2005, Shale Gas Boom: Natural Gas Disconnects First Butane Propane Ethane Natural Gas 2007, Tight Oil Growth: NGLs Move Lower 3

4 GLOBAL IMPACT: ETHYLENE CAPACITY 22% 18% 3% 18% 4% 1% 34% 4 Global Capacity: 156 million tpa ethylene At risk: 14 million tpa ethylene Criteria: Liquid feed crackers smaller than 0.5 million tpa World Other At Risk

5 ETHANE BY SEA Sensible If Existing Asset Coastal Feed starved by declining North Sea production Four Total In Europe Borealis Stenungsund, Sweden ExxonMobil Mossmorran, UK INEOS Grangemouth, UK INEOS Bamble, Norway INEOS building 2 LNG ships for ethane service Will ship 30,000 bpd from US East Coast Limited Global Opportunity 5

6 US$ per Metric Ton 1,000 REGIONAL PROPANE PRICES Significant Export Incentives Singapore NWEurope Middle East US Aug

7 US TAKES LEAD IN GLOBAL PROPANE EXPORTS EPD = Enterprise Products 7

8 PDH ATTRACTIVE FROM ALL ANGLES Gas Production (Neumin) NGL Fractionation & Storage Formosa Steam Crackers Dow Propylene Derivatives Williams Canada PDH PetroLogistic s Ascend 8 Enterprise Export Terminals 8

9 CHINESE PROPANE DE-HYDROGENATION (PDH) PDH Propane Consumption Capacity 000 Barrels per Day Project Status Construction: 9 Engineering: 2 Planning:

10 CONDENSATE: A DEFINITION 10 Exits wells as gas, then condenses at atmospheric temperature and pressure Hard to track often blended into crude oil Like crude oil, essentially cannot be exported Known as Lease Condensate Very light crude oil Gravity > 50 API ~50% Eagle Ford Liquids Production Similar to other hydrocarbon products that CAN be exported because they have been processed Naphtha from a refinery or condensate splitter Natural Gasoline from a gas plant or NGL fractionator Also, known as pentanes plus Also, known as plant condensate

11 KEY CRUDE QUALITIES; GRAVITY AND SULPHUR [Water] 11 11

12 CONDENSATE SPLITTING The market is typically supplydriven, not demand led Key issue; will there be enough demand to match growing supply? Splitting condensate allows products to be exported Crude / Condensate LPG ~ 4% Naphtha ~40% Diesel ~40% Fuel Oil ~16% 12

13 SO, WHY DID US SUPPLY BOOM? 13 Enabled by: 1980 s Unconventional Gas production credits Private mineral rights Infrastructure Pipelines Rail Water Gas Plants Geology Unrestricted NGL exports Restricted Crude oil exports Exception for foreign refineries that return refined products to US Limited application for Canadian refineries

14 SUMMARY OF SHALE S IMPACT US NGL supply growth will Shut non-us ethylene crackers Encourage US investment/jobs Stabilize global prices Job Losses Job Gains Less volatility, more certainty Policy implications US exports of NGLs and petrochemicals required to clear market Economic drive to allow condensate exports Global good maximized when markets are efficient Therefore, non-us jobs will have be lost unless Demand grows rapidly to allow incremental producers to survive Governments step in and pay to support industry Opportunity to replicate US shale boom globally Encourage mineral rights/hydrocarbon development Infrastructure investment required Improved economics with open export policy 14

15 Matt Kuhl Senior Consultant KBC Advanced Technologies (281)

16

17 NGL Fractionator Gas Plant WHAT ARE NGLS; SOURCES AND USES Natural Gas Mixed NGLs (ygrade) Ethane Rejection Wet Gas 79% from Gas Wells 21% from Oil Wells Ethane (C2) Only Upgrade Option Plastics Propane (C3) Refinery Supply Butane (C4) Home Heating Motor Gasoline 17 Natural Gasoline (C5+) Rubber Heavy Oil Diluent

18 Thousand Barrels per Day Thousand Barrels per Day WHAT HAPPENED IN THE US 2,500 US NGL Supply Growth Global NGL Supply Forecast 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, OPEC NON-OPEC 2,000 1,500 1, Ethane (C2) LPG (C3/C4) Natural Gasoline (C5+) *Gas Plants only excludes refinery LPG supply 18

19 US ECONOMIC IMPACTS Midstream Infrastructure Pipelines Rail/truck facilities Gas plants NGL fractionators Export terminals Ethane Crackers for Ethylene Production Ethylene derivative plants Product manufacturing plants PDH plants for Propylene Production Propylene derivative plants Product manufacturing plants 19

20 EVERY DARK CLOUD HAS A SILVER LINING Naphtha co-products short in US Butadiene for plastic/rubber Aromatics for polymers/fiber Creates opportunity abroad Globally, most ethylene capacity additions will continue to be based on naphtha feedstock Middle East will increasingly shift away from ethane to heavier feeds due to lack of ethane supply growth 20

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