Fixed Mobile Convergence: opportunities and strategies for the mass market. Stephen Sale Edited by Gordon Davies

Transcription

1 Fixed Mobile Convergence: opportunities and strategies for the mass market Stephen Sale Edited by Gordon Davies

2 Analysys Research Fixed Networks and Services Analysys Research Fixed Networks and Services online market intelligence service World Telecoms Marketplace online market intelligence service Retail VoIP in Western Europe: forecasts VoIP versus Mobile: forecasts for the future of enterprise voice Fixed Mobile Substitution and VoIP: forecasts for the battle for mass-market voice The Telco Product Portfolio beyond 2010 The Telco Organisational Structure beyond 2010 The Business Case for Carrier Migration to VoIP Viable Business Models Point to Big Opportunities for Public WLAN Emerging Business Models in Voice: the impact of Skype and other private VoIP applications The Business Case for Broadband Entertainment Western European Fixed Telecoms Markets: forecasts The Future of MVNOs in the 3G Era The Western European Mobile Market: trends and forecasts Product and Service Opportunities from Shortrange Wireless Technologies: WLAN, Bluetooth, UWB and NFC Wireless Voice over IP: technical and commercial prospects Billing for Mobility: strategies for convergent charging The World s Top Ten Wireless Services Retaining Customers and Minimising Churn: strategies for mobile markets Pushing Beyond the Limits of 3G with HSDPA and Other Enhancements The Role and Impact of WiMAX and Proprietary BWA Making a Success of the Mobile Content Value Chain Viable Business Models Point to Big Opportunities for Public WLAN Billing and OSS Mobile Networks and Services Analysys Research Billing and OSS Markets online Analysys Research Mobile Networks and Services market intelligence service online market intelligence service Billing for Mobility: strategies for convergent Delivering Strategic Benefits with IP Multimedia charging Subsystem (IMS) Emerging Charging Architectures for New Mobile VoIP versus Mobile: forecasts for the future of Services: understanding and evaluating the enterprise voice available technical solutions Fixed Mobile Substitution and VoIP: forecasts for the battle for mass-market voice Published by Analysys Research Limited St Giles Court 24 Castle Street Cambridge CB3 0AJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) research@analysys.com Analysys Research Limited 2005 Printed in the UK by Victoire Press. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. ISBN

3 Contents 0 Summary viii 1 Fixed Mobile Substitution raises the stakes in the battle for customer ownership Mobile services are taking an ever greater share of telecoms spend Fixed and mobile operators are targeting the same markets in pursuit of growth Some operators are responding to (and pre-empting) FMS with convergence strategies 3 2 Technological advances are paving the way for Fixed Mobile Convergence but customer demand remains uncertain FMC standards are emerging but the lack of converged handsets is delaying rollout of services Many of the potential demand-side drivers for FMC remain unproven 8 3 Fixed-only operators are driving current Fixed Mobile Convergence initiatives FMS poses the biggest threat to operators with substantial circuit-switched telephony revenues Fast-moving altnets are starting to partner in mobility to differentiate their FMC services Broadband voice services provide a strong base for the launch of FMC services The opportunities for most fixed-only players far outweigh the threats, if they can obtain leverage in the mobile value chain 17 4 Integrated operators are in pole position to deliver Fixed Mobile Convergence but must watch margins Mobile is being redefined as personalised mobility services and bundled with broadband in the quest for future growth CPE is also evolving to capitalise on growth in non-voice services Integrated operators have to segment their market to minimise margin erosion Competitive pressures will dictate when integrated operators introduce converged services 25 Analysys Research Limited 2005 Contents

4 iv Fixed Mobile Convergence: opportunities and strategies for the mass-market 5 Mobile operators could go it alone but will need to effectively address the broadband market Cellular-only FMS strategies fit well with 3G plans but lack an adequate solution for Internet access Mobile-only players are currently active in FMC through partnerships but increased interest in broadband could spur deeper involvement Mobile operators may use FMC as a complementary strategy to FMS 31 6 FMC may act as a catalyst for wider industry transformation FMC will drive service providers to take a greater role in the provision of end-user devices Ownership of infrastructure improves the bottom line for FMC Customer service will be key in a world of seamless networks Integrated operators are best positioned to take advantage of the new landscape but have many challenges to overcome FMC is likely to spur on consolidation of smaller players exposed by a lack of broadband or mobile services 36 7 FMC services will be adopted by 16% of broadband households by The French market is the most promising for long-term FMC adoption, followed by Italy and Germany Adoption of FMC services is closely aligned with broadband penetration among the mobile subscriber base FMC services are unlikely to achieve significant penetration of the addressable market until Actions 43 Market intelligence services from Analysys Research 45 Reports from Analysys Research 46 Custom Research: meeting your information needs 47 Analysys Consulting: advising on strategy and policy 48 Contents Analysys Research Limited 2005

5 Fixed Mobile Convergence: opportunities and strategies for the mass-market v List of Figures and Tables Figure 0.1: FMC household penetration in France, Spain and the UK, x Table 2.1: Network architectures for dual-mode FMC services 6 Table 3.1: Dual-mode FMC initiatives by fixed-only operators 11 Table 3.2: BT Fusion service characteristics 13 Table 3.3: Service characteristics of freenet.de s ip1 17 Table 3.4: Opportunities and threats for fixed-only operators 18 Table 4.1: Mass-market dual-mode FMC initiatives (actual or planned) from integrated operators 19 Table 4.2: France Telecom s residential FMC services (includes bundled services) 21 Figure 4.1: An illustration of the home gateway as the centrepiece of residential convergence strategies 23 Table 4.3: Opportunities and threats for integrated operators 25 Table 5.1: O2 Germany s KPIs in comparison to market average at March Table 5.2: Service characteristics of Vodafone D2 s Zuhause portfolio 29 Table 5.3: Opportunities and threats in dual-mode FMC for mobile-only operators 31 Table 6.1: Positioning of service providers for FMC 35 Table 7.1: Market prospects for FMC services in Western Europe 39 Figure 7.1: Number of households with broadband and mobile subscription(s) in Western Europe, Figure 7.2: FMC household penetration in France, Spain and the UK, Figure 7.3: Western European FMC subscriber households as a subset of households with broadband and mobile subscriptions 42 Figure 7.4: Individual subscribers associated with FMC services, Figure 7.5: Dual-mode FMC handset sales in Western Europe, Analysys Research Limited 2005 Contents