API413 Class 3. Explaining Trends in Democratization

Transcription

1 API413 Class 3 Explaining Trends in Democratization

2 Key Issues I. What are the most important factors leading towards the consolidation of democracy? Re: Diamond II. Class exercise III. What is required for the Policy Analysis reports?

3 Part I: Explaining Democratization Reading: Larry Diamond et al. "Introduction: In Search of Consolidation" from Consolidating the Third Wave Huntington Democracy for the Long Haul

4 Diamond..In search of consolidation What is democratic consolidation? Behavioral Attitudinal Constitutional Democracy becomes routinized and deeply internalized in social, institutional and even psychological life. Diamond pxvii

5 Microsoft Photo Editor 3.0 Photo

6 Explanations of democratization What is the relative importance of: Political leadership Political culture Social structure and socioeconomic development Socioeconomic inequality Civil society State and Society Political institutions Ethnic and regional conflict International factors.

7 II: Class Exercise IMF independent consultants in pairs to compare data and at least two countries 1. In your view which of the listed factors are most important and why? Which are least important and why? What methods and evidence would you use to support your argument?

8 Change in Democratization

9 Class Model of Democratization Political Culture Civil Society/ Social Capital Socioeconomic development Constitutions Executive-Legislative Electoral Systems Party Systems Voting Behaviour The Media Democratization

10 III: Policy Reports Part I: Policy analysis report (22 nd March) Analysis of the problem Part II: Policy strategy report (1st May) Recommended range of structural policy options Client eg UN, IMF, party, NGO Applied policy research Important topic open to structural/institution political reforms Executive summary well organized Clear, concise, effective presentation of key ideas Good research design comparative evidence/data Range of options costs and benefits Convincing and plausible key recommendations

11 Project Examples Client: IFE Mexico How can IFE help parties use the free TV airtime most effectively to inform the public? Analyze scope of problem in Mexico. Evidence: compare pros and cons of paid ads in the US and free party broadcasts in Britain. Recommend options. Client: International Foundation for Electoral Systems How can IFES most effectively monitor and promote free and fair elections in Indonesia in May-1999? Analyze scope of problem Compare similar exercises in Nigeria and Cambodia. Recommend options

12 Project Examples Client: Italian election commission Referendum proposed on scrapping the 25% PR rule in Italian elections? You are asked to produce a clear booklet for the public explaining the impact of the current electoral system and the pros and cons of further electoral reform. Compare with other EU nations Client: Czech Social Democrats What are the options for constitutional reform in the Czech Republic? Analyze causes of lack of stability in present system. Compare with other C.&E. European nations. Recommend policy options

13 Project examples Client: US Debates Commission How can the commission most effectively organize presidential debates in 2000? Analyze problems in 1988, 1992, Compare pros and cons of different formats in Canada and the US Recommend options Client: UK Royal Commission on the House of Lords How can the commission reform the House of Lords? Compare the structure, powers and functions of upper houses in European parliaments. Outline options for election/selection and role.

14 Project examples: Client: Japanese diet How can the Japanese diet reform the system of campaign finance? Analysis of problem in last two elections Comparison of campaign funding in Sweden, US and Germany. Outline options. Client: Soros foundation in Russia How can the foundation seek to strengthen democratic parties in Russia? Analysis of 3-4 parties - their organization, membership and activities. Recommend for new investments in training, organization and infrastructure.

15 Project examples Client:Turkish Democratic Audit In preparation for joining the EU Turkey proposes to conduct a democratic audit. What should be included in an audit? How should it be conducted? What evidence should be collected? Compare with Swedish and British audit Client:The World Bank The World Bank wants to publish a report on political stability in SE Asia Compare the past performance of 4-5 nations in the region Evaluate future prospects for stable democracy.

16 Project examples Client: UN Division of Women The UN wants to develop a booklet to promote more women in legislatures Compare party selection process in Norway, Germany, India and S.Africa. Draft booklet outlining options Client: IDEA IDEA want to analyze the best electoral systems for ethnic or religious minorities in Africa Compare the effect of the electoral system in S.Africa, Ghana, and Mali Recommend alternativce pros and cons

17 Project Reports To prepare for discussion in class next Monday bring along your initial ideas about... What would be the topic of your project? Who would be your 'client'? What is their mission/objectives? What reading from class will you use to help understand the problem? What would be your research design? What evidence and data would you need to collect? How would you start work on this project? What are the first 3 steps you will take? Guidelines at:

18 End Next class: Cultural attitudes towards democracy