Psychological Preparedness for Natural Disasters in the context of Climate Change

Transcription

1 Psychological Preparedness for Natural Disasters in the context of Climate Change Hannah R. Zulch, BSc (Hons) School of Applied Psychology Griffith University Australia 1

2 Acknowledgements Professor Joseph Reser Associate Professor Shirley Morrissey Associate Professor Richard Hindmarsh Professor Paula Brough Professor Peter Creed Grirffith University, Australia 2

3 Structure Introduction Climate change Psychology in the Disaster Literature Psychological Preparedness Definition of Psychological Preparedness The development and validation of the Psychological Preparedness for Disaster Threat Scale (PPDTS) Implications and contributions to the field 3

4 TSUNAMI, THAILAND DECEMBER

5 HURRICANE KATRINA, USA AUGUST

6 EARTHQUAKE, SICHUAN, CHINA MAY

7 BUSHFIRES, VA, AUSTRALIA FEBRUARY

8 FLOODS, QLD, AUSTRALIA 2010/2011 8

9 EARTHQUAKE, CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND, JUNE 2011 (Canterbury, 2010) courtesy of BBC 9

10 EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI, JAPAN, MARCH

11 HURRICANE GORDON, PORTUGAL, AUGUST 2012 courtesy of Aljazeera 11

12 HURRICANE SANDY, STATEN ISLAND, NY, OCTOBER 2012 courtesy of Fox News 12

13 TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, SAMOA, DECEMBER 2012 courtesy of The Australian 13

14 TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, FIJI, DECEMBER 2012 courtesy of NBC news 14

15 Climate Change Changes to the world s climate can impact our lives and also natural systems (flora and fauna, etc.) Further changes to our climate are inevitable if the greenhouse gas emissions continue at the present level Global warming of 0.8ºC to 1.5ºC by 2030 is very likely Even a few degrees change in global temperatures can create a vastly different environment While no single weather event can be attributed to climate change, with climate change progressing globally, it is more likely that severe weather patterns and natural disasters will increase in their frequency or intensity; such as storms and floods might increase in the foreseeable future. 15

16 Climate Change Australia Australian annual average daily mean temperatures have increased by 0.9 C since 1910 There has been a 0.9 ºC warming since 1950 and a rise of the sealevel Changes in mating and migration times of birds have occurred, and there has been an increase in coral bleaching due to increased water temperature Australia is likely to become warmer, with less rainfall and more droughts in the south The north will also change, with rainfall changes, more heatwaves, more fires, and more intense cyclones 16

17 Natural disasters worldwide Severe and extreme weather events occur naturally in most parts of the world, although some regions are more vulnerable to certain hazards than others. For example New Zealand and Japan are more vulnerable to earthquakes because of the seismic activity in this region, while Africa is more prone to experience drought, the US is more likely to experience hurricanes and tornadoes, and Australia is more likely to experience tropical cyclones, drought and bushfires. 17

18 World Map of Natural Hazards 2006 by The Royal Society 18

19 Natural disasters worldwide The most deadly natural disasters in recent times were the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, and the 2004 tsunami in South East Asia The most expensive natural disasters in recent times were the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan and 2005 Hurricane Katrina North America has been most affected by extreme weather events in the past decade, and worldwide there has been the largest increase in extreme weather event property loss. Hurricane Katrina was the costliest event ever recorded in North America, in terms of loss of property and loss of lives Severe storms account for 76% of overall losses (since 1980) 19

20 20

21 Natural Disasters in Australia Annually over 500,000 Australians are affected by natural disasters. Natural disasters have helped shape Australia s history, culture, understanding of nature and the Australian way of life. Bushfires, tropical cyclones and severe storms, often with accompanying floods are of most concern. Predictions are that the intensity of such extreme weather events is likely to increase Climate Change! 21

22 22

23 Cyclone events and cyclone threats Cyclone warning situations currently occur much more frequently than cyclone events. Many cyclone warning situations each year do not culminate in an actual cyclone crossing the coast. However, cyclone warning situations can impact psychological wellbeing. 23

24 Psychology s role in the disaster area Psychology has not always been considered an important part of disaster preparedness and response, only in the past 50 years has it been acknowledged as an integral part of disaster management Different areas within psychology contribute to the research literature Peek and Mileti (2002) identify a four-stage cycle in natural disaster research, consisting of preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation, with research usually focusing on one of these stages at a time. 24

25 Psychological well-being following natural disasters Mild exposure can lead to psychological distress for some individuals. Relatives and friends may also be affected. At times the emergency personnel are also affected and may also suffer vicarious traumatization and compassion fatigue (burnout) Community members may become symptomatic, and even individuals who were not involved in the disaster may experience different levels of distress Some of the psychological factors, such as the perception of, as well as perceived control over the event, may be modified through training. 25

26 Research on Psychological Preparedness To date only one study: Reser and Morrissey (1996) conducted a large-scale community survey in Cairns, Northern Queensland. 640 randomly selected households 220 were given a psychological preparedness guide (intervention) Intervention included a brief psychological guide (Anticipate, identify and manage) Both intervention and control group improved their household preparedness, but the intervention group improved significantly more Problems 26

27 Aims To define, operationalize and measure psychological preparedness Part A: Review of the literature of related constructs Defining and operationalizing psychological preparedness and its subdomains Part B: To develop a valid, sensitive and reliable scale to measure psychological preparedness Psychological Preparedness to Disaster Threat Scale (PPDTS) Hannah Zulch 27

28 Defining Psychological Preparedness In the context of a serious threatening event or disaster warning situation, psychological preparedness is a heightened state of awareness, anticipation, and readiness for (1) the uncertainty and emotional arousal in expectation of the possible occurrence of the threat, (2) one s own psychological response to the unfolding threat situation, and (3) the ability to manage the demands of the situation. 28

29 Defining Psychological Preparedness 1) Awareness and anticipation of one s own probable psychological responses. 2) Capacity, confidence, and competence to manage one s psychological response and to manage one s social environment (if applicable). 3) Perceived knowledge, perceived responsibility and confidence and competence to manage one s external physical situation 29

30 Survey 1 Initial version of PPDTS (51 items) Feedback from experts and students (nonpsychology) Refinement of the survey (PPDTS reduced to 40 items) The revised PPDTS scale and overall survey was administered to students and staff members of different universities in Queensland paper version and electronic survey version, using SurveyMonkey 30

31 Survey 1 Online survey (SurveyMonkey) of 1,143 university students and staff Data reduction Exploratory Factor Analysis Confirmatory Factor Analysis PPDTS reduced to 18 items 31

32 Final 18-item PPDTS Factor loadings Item no. Item summary 1 2 Subscale 1: Knowledge and Management of the External Situational Environment I am familiar with the severe storm or cyclone preparedness materials available to me. I know which household preparedness measures are needed to stay safe in a very severe storm or cyclone situation. I know how to adequately prepare my home for the forthcoming storm or cyclone season. I know what to look out for in my home and work place if an emergency weather situation should develop. I am familiar with the disaster warning system messages used for extreme weather events. I am confident that I know what to do and what actions to take in a severe weather situation. I would be able to locate the severe storm or cyclone preparedness materials in a cyclone warning situation easily. I am knowledgeable about the impact that very severe storms or cyclones can have on my home I know what the difference is between a cyclone warning and a cyclone watch situation I am familiar with the weather signs of an approaching storm or cyclone

33 Item no. Item summary Factor loadings Subscale 2: Anticipation, Awareness and Management of One s Psychological Response 18 I think I am able to manage my feelings pretty well in difficult and challenging situations In a severe storm or cyclone situation I would be able to cope with my anxiety and fear I seem to be able to stay cool and calm in most difficult situations I feel reasonably confident in my own ability to deal with stressful situations that I might find myself in When necessary, I can talk myself through challenging situations If I found myself in a severe storm or cyclone situation I would know how to manage my own response to the situation I know which strategies I could use to calm myself in a severe storm or cyclone situation I have a good idea of how I would likely respond to an emergency situation

34 Chi-square value χ²(130) = 2.009, p <.001. GFI = 0.91 RMSEA =.059 CFI =.96 PCLOSE =

35 Scale reliability The overall PPDTS scale (18 items) showed excellent scale reliability, with a Cronbach s alpha value of α=.92. Both subscales showed excellent reliability. Sub-scale 1 (Factor 1, 10 items) -Cronbach s α value of.92. Sub-scale 2 (Factor 2, 8 items) -Cronbach s α value of

36 Surveys 2 & 3: Test-retest reliability The test-retest reliability, between Survey 2 and Survey 3: Pearson s correlation coefficient of.91. This indicates excellent reliability for testing three weeks apart. The test-retest reliability one year apart, between Survey 1 (2010) and Survey 2 (2011), Pearson s correlation coefficient of.77. This indicates high temporal stability, even though testing was performed one year apart. 36

37 Future studies Administer the PPDTS to residents of a cyclone-prone area in Northern Queensland and gain ecological validity. Risk perception and assessment PPDTS and other natural disasters 37

38 Implications and contributions to the field More accurate definition of psychological preparedness Distinguish psychological preparedness from other related constructs Reliable and valid measure The scale may be useful in evaluating disaster preparedness programs Psychological preparedness may help to increase resilience over time Climate change natural disasters more likely 38

39 Thank you 39

40 Questions? 40