Bakken Blend Prices. A look at the affect shipping options are having on crude differentials. September 20, 2012
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- Ophelia Hopkins
- 3 years ago
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Bakken Blend crudes had limited shipping options (situation changing, September 5, only $14/b difference) Bakken Blend ex-clearbrook price open to influence from Canadian light, sweet market due to pipeline. Shippers see prices leveling out in comparison to USGC with more pipeline/rail options.
1 Bakken Blend Prices A look at the affect shipping options are having on crude differentials September 20, 2012 Platts Pipeline and Expansion Conference
2 Agenda Brief explanation of Platts Bakken Blend assessments General overview of price movements in Review of shipping options influence on price A look at difference between Bakken Blend at Clearbrook and Guernsey 1
3 Platts Bakken Blend crude assessments Bakken Blend crude assessments launched May 2010 Bakken Blend ex-clearbrook Reflects Bakken Blend crude injected in the pipeline at Clearbrook, Minnesota Reflects sulfur content of 0.2% and API gravity Bakken Blend ex-gurnsey Reflects Bakken Blend crude injected in the pipeline at Guernsey, Wyoming Reflects sulfur content of 0.2% and API gravity
4 Platts Bakken Blend crude assessments Continued Bakken Blend differentials assessed to WTI CMA The CMA is the basis for Canadian pipeline crude differentials and Bakken crude is injected into these pipelines It takes the second and third month contracts for WTI due to the time is takes to transport the crude 3
5 4 Price movements in
6 Price movements in Continued LLS averaged a $21/b premium to Bakken Blend ex-clearbrook LLS continued to rise with the wide WTI-Brent spread Bakken Blend crudes had limited shipping options (situation changing, September 5, only $14/b difference) Bakken Blend ex-clearbrook price open to influence from Canadian light, sweet market due to pipeline 5
7 Price movements in Continued Bakken Blend differentials searched for bottom in early February Unseasonal warm weather caused a surplus of production Bakken Blend ex-clearbrook differential reached - $26.50/b Bakken Blend crude production in North Dakota alone surpassed half million mark in November to 510,000 b/d (ND DMR) In addition, gasoline demand in US Midwest fell to lowest level since September
8 Price movements in Continued Bakken Blend differentials then back up on Canadian synthetic crude output issues CNR 110,000 b/d Horizon upgrader begins unplanned maintenance and down until mid-march While Syncrude differential up $15/b, Bakken Blend ex- Clearbrook up $3 Bakken Blend crude hit lowest levels in 22 months in June NYMEX light sweet crude contract settles below $80/b Bakken Blend ex-clearbrook drops to $70.11/b, but all markets down as well 7
9 Price movements in Continued Bakken Blend differentials climb over summer Rail terminals begin opening up, providing additional shipping options Upgrader maintenance at end of summer pushes Canadian light, sweet differentials up USGC market up on wider WTI-Brent spread Bakken Blend ex-clearbrook differential reaches +$6/b September 6; Bakken Blend ex-guernsey reaches +$6.10/b 8
10 New Shipping options Rail is king Williston Basin rail terminal capacity was expected to increase to 550,000 b/d in Q4 2012, up from 205,000 b/d in Q BNSF says in September its Williston Basin crude takeaway capacity at 1 million b/d Crude oil output in North Dakota reached 660,322 b/d in June more than 80% of which is Bakken Blend Talk of 40-50% production being moved by rail 9
11 New Shipping options Bakken being shipped to all coasts USAC refineries Irving St. John, Imperial Sarnia, PBF Delaware City, Delta/Carlyle Trainer, Sunoco Philadelphia, United Refining Philadelphia USGC refineries Alliance among other small Louisiana refineries needing light, sweet crude; being blended with heavier USGC crudes USWC refineries Tesoro Anacortes, BP Puget Sound and California refineries in Bakersfield 10
12 Bakken Blend differentials relationship The relationship between the Bakken Blend ex- Clearbrook and Bakken Blend ex-guernsey differentials changed with the increase in shipping options Rangeland, Enbridge, Musket, Plains, all have new rail terminals this year Shippers can choose to deal with pipeline apportionment or rail costs bargaining power Additional midstream pipeline options also increasing efficiency 11
13 12 Bakken Blend differentials relationship
14 13 Bakken Blend differentials relationship
15 14 Bakken Blend differentials relationship
16 In summary Bakken Blend differentials continue to climb on additional shipping options Shippers see prices leveling out in comparison to USGC with more pipeline/rail options Expectation is the price of Bakken could reach LLS price minus transportation Price increases dependent on increased rail shipments and additional pipeline outlets that reach new markets or existing markets only accessed by rail currently (ex: East Coast) 15
17 Questions?
18 Thank you.
19 18 Preferred Color Palette
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