BASIC PROBABILITY. the probability that event A would occur = Pr(A) and. Pr(A) = n A n
|
|
- Jemimah Watson
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 BASIC PROBABILITY The classic interpretation... if n = number of mutually exclusive equally likely outcomes (sample space) of which n A constitute event A, then... the probability that event A would occur = Pr(A) and Pr(A) = n A n e.g. suppose that a set of 10 rock samples includes 3 that contain gold nuggets. If you were to pick up a sample at random, what is the probability that it includes a gold nugget? Pr(A) = n A n = 3 10 = 0.3 Addition and multiplication of probabilities given a sequence of independent and mutually exclusive events (E 1, E 2, E 3, E i ), the probability of a given sequence is... addition = "or" Pr (E 1 or E 2 or E 3 or... E i ) = Pr (E 1 )+Pr(E 2 )+Pr(E 3 )... +Pr(E i ) e.g. with one dice, what is the probability of getting a 2 or a 6 in a single role... note n = 6 (six possible outcomes) Pr(2 or 6) = Pr(2)+Pr(6) = 1/6+1/6=1/3 multiplication = "and" Pr(E 1 and E 2 and E 3 and... E i ) = Pr (E 1 ) * Pr(E 2 ) * Pr(E 3 ) *..Pr(E i ) 5.1
2 e.g. with two dice..., what is the probability of getting a 2 and a 6... Pr(2 and 6) = Pr(2) * Pr(6) =1/6 * 1/6 =1/36 = note Pr(2 and 6) = Pr (6 and 2) can mix it up... Pr (E 1 and E 2 or E 3 ) = Pr (E 1 ) * Pr(E 2 +E 3 ) e.g. with two dice... Pr(2 and either 6 or 4) = Pr(2) * Pr(6+4) =1/6 * (1/6+1/6)=2/36 Pr (2 and 6 -or- 6 and 2) = Pr(2)*Pr(6)+Pr(6)*Pr(2) =1/36 + 1/36 = 2/36 Note, the above requires that each roll of the die is independent and mutually exclusive, that is you are rolling two separate die. Joint probability is for two events that are NOT mutually exclusive but are independent. Here we consider (intersection of the two probabilities) and (union of the two probabilities) Pr (A) or Pr(B) = Pr (A) Pr(B) Pr (A B) Conditional probability is for two events in which the outcome for one is dependant on the outcome of the other event. Suppose the probability of event A depends on event B occurring, then
3 Pr(A B) = Pr(A B) Pr(B) Note, if two events (A and B) are independent, this works out to: Pr(A B) = Pr(A and B) Pr(B) or Pr(A) Thus, we use tend conditional probabilities when our events are not independent. Note that Pr(A B) usually doesn t equal Pr(B A), but. Pr(A B) = Pr(B A) Pr(A) Pr(B) This is referred to as Bayes Theorem e.g. suppose the probability of finding species x depends upon the rock type. Given the following data for 120 rock specimens (60 are siltstone and 60 are sandstone), 79 of which contain species x... siltstone sandstone Total samples Species x The chance of finding either a sandstone or siltstone is simply: Pr(sandstone) = Pr(ss) = 60/120, = 0.5 Pr(siltstone) = Pr (slt) = 60/120, =
4 And the probability of finding species x irrespective of rock type? Pr(x) = 79/120 = We can also ask, what is the probability of finding species x if we knew the sample was from a siltstone? Pr(x slt) = Pr(x) Pr(slt) Pr(slt) and Pr(x slt) = Pr(slt x) Pr(x) Pr(x slt) = Pr(x) Pr(slt) Pr(slt) = 57/60 60/120 60/120 =
5 Binomial Distribution (discrete binomial probability) When there are just two possible outcomes, success and failure... p = probability of event occurring (success) q = probability of event not occurring (failure) some examples... p q probability of: heads not heads (tails) probability of: species A not species A probability of: extinction not extinction n = number of trials e.g. the number of coins flipped, number of samples counted, etc... binomial distribution characterized by equation (p+q) n for n=1 p + q for n=2 p 2 + 2pq + q 2 for n=3 p 3 + 3p 2 q + 3pq 2 + q 3 for n=4 p 4 + 4p 3 q + 6p 2 q 2 + 4pq 3 + q 4 deals with combinations not permutations e.g. p * q = q * p to get probabilities, put p and q into the formula for any one term... Pr(x) = n! x!(n x)! p x q n x where x is the number of successes and n is the number of trials, and! is a factorial (e.g. 4!=4*3*2*1 and 3! = 3*2*1) e.g. p = presence of species A = 0.5 q = absence of species A =
6 for n = 1 binomial terms p q probability for n=2 binomial terms p 2 2pq q 2 probability for n=3 binomial terms p 3 3p 2 q 3pq 2 q 3 probability n=1 n=2 n= p 2 q 3pq.25 p q 2pq p q p 3 3 q # of A's # of A's # of A's 2 e.g. presence or absence of trilobite species A p = species A present = q = species A absent = for n = 1 binomial terms p q probability for n=2 binomial terms p 2 2pq q 2 probability for n=3 binomial terms p 3 3p 2 q 3pq 2 q 3 probability
7 n=1 n=2 n= q 2 3p 2 q p q 2pq p q 3pq p Number of A's Some properties of p and q when p = q then distribution is symmetrical when p q then distribution is asymmetrical when n is large and p and q differ greatly (e.g., real small p) becomes Poisson distribution (binomial distribution for rare events). when p = q and n is large then becomes normal distribution if n is large enough, regardless of p and q, the distribution becomes normal (remember Central Limits Theorem). Some other properties of the binomial distribution... x = np (the average number of trials that will contain a success) se = pq n variance = npq standard deviation = npq 5.7
8 Confidence limits of binomial probabilities: p =p ± 1.96 se Testing probabilities For testing a observed probability versus a theoretical one H o : p obs = p theor H o : p obs p theor Use a calculated value Z where Z = p obs p theor se obs compare calculated Z value with critical value (from table) to determine outcome of test For testing the equivalence between two probabilities H o : p A = p Br H o : p A p B Use a calculated value of Z where... Z = p A p B ( se A ) 2 + ( se B ) 2 compare calculated Z value with critical value (from table) to determine outcome of test. 5.8
9 Binomial Frequencies Fitting a theoretical binomial distribution to observed frequencies. e.g. Suppose we collected 1000 m 2 of outcrop (at 1 m 2 samples) and found 401 trilobites. We recorded the number of trilobites per each square meter (0-3). How does our sample distribution fit a binomial distribution? Step 1. determine p, q. Can get total sample probability from simple proportion 401/1000 so... p = and q = Step 2. calculate theoretical binomial probabilities for each x (0-3) by plugging in p and q into equation. Step 3. calculate theoretical frequencies by multiplying through each probability by N Trilobite abundance (x) Observed frequency Binomial term Theoretical probability Pr Theoretical frequency Pr*N q pq p 2 q p test "goodness of-fit" by Chi-square or Kolmogorov-Smirnov test if get good fit between observed and theoretical frequencies (or probabilities), the observed frequencies represent random binomial roll for the observed p, q, and n. The events are independent. 5.9
10 Poisson Distribution Special case of binomial distribution for rare events (p < 0.1) that are widely spaced in time or space ground rules the events are rare 2. the events are independent 3. the probability of an event is constant through the sequences of intervals. Events can be number per time, number per area, number per volume, etc.. 4. probability of an event is proportional to the size of the interval 5. probability of 2 events per interval is much smaller than 1 event per interval 6. whole mess is random role Estimates for Poisson distribution x = np variance =npq usually don't know n or p but can easily calculate x shape of distribution is function of the mean µ=0.1 µ=3 µ=10 Poisson probability Pr(x) = e np (np) x x! = e x x x x! 5.10
11 where x = the number of successes or events per interval and e = the base of natural logs = e.g. collected Ammonites over 200 square meters of Formation x and want to know if are distributed randomly as a Poisson distribution. N = 200 (square meters) x = (Ammonites per square meter) s 2 = e = e x = determine expected Poisson probability by plugging each x (0-5) into the equation. 2 examples are shown below for n = 0: for n = 4: e x x x = = x! 0! e x x x = = x! 4! expected frequency is expected probability times the sample size (N) # Ammonites Collected/m 2 x Observed Frequency xobs Expected Poisson Probability p Expected Frequency xexp can test expected with observed with Chi-square or Kolmogorov- Smirnov test. 5.11
An Introduction to Basic Statistics and Probability
An Introduction to Basic Statistics and Probability Shenek Heyward NCSU An Introduction to Basic Statistics and Probability p. 1/4 Outline Basic probability concepts Conditional probability Discrete Random
More informationLecture 2 Binomial and Poisson Probability Distributions
Lecture 2 Binomial and Poisson Probability Distributions Binomial Probability Distribution l Consider a situation where there are only two possible outcomes (a Bernoulli trial) H Example: u flipping a
More informationBINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
MODULE IV BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION A random variable X is said to follow binomial distribution with parameters n & p if P ( X ) = nc x p x q n x where x = 0, 1,2,3..n, p is the probability of success & q
More informationCh5: Discrete Probability Distributions Section 5-1: Probability Distribution
Recall: Ch5: Discrete Probability Distributions Section 5-1: Probability Distribution A variable is a characteristic or attribute that can assume different values. o Various letters of the alphabet (e.g.
More informationChapter 4. Probability and Probability Distributions
Chapter 4. robability and robability Distributions Importance of Knowing robability To know whether a sample is not identical to the population from which it was selected, it is necessary to assess the
More informationMath 151. Rumbos Spring 2014 1. Solutions to Assignment #22
Math 151. Rumbos Spring 2014 1 Solutions to Assignment #22 1. An experiment consists of rolling a die 81 times and computing the average of the numbers on the top face of the die. Estimate the probability
More informationSOLUTIONS: 4.1 Probability Distributions and 4.2 Binomial Distributions
SOLUTIONS: 4.1 Probability Distributions and 4.2 Binomial Distributions 1. The following table contains a probability distribution for a random variable X. a. Find the expected value (mean) of X. x 1 2
More informationIntroduction to Probability
3 Introduction to Probability Given a fair coin, what can we expect to be the frequency of tails in a sequence of 10 coin tosses? Tossing a coin is an example of a chance experiment, namely a process which
More informationE3: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS lecture notes
E3: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS lecture notes 2 Contents 1 PROBABILITY THEORY 7 1.1 Experiments and random events............................ 7 1.2 Certain event. Impossible event............................
More informationChapter 5. Random variables
Random variables random variable numerical variable whose value is the outcome of some probabilistic experiment; we use uppercase letters, like X, to denote such a variable and lowercase letters, like
More informationNormal Distribution as an Approximation to the Binomial Distribution
Chapter 1 Student Lecture Notes 1-1 Normal Distribution as an Approximation to the Binomial Distribution : Goals ONE TWO THREE 2 Review Binomial Probability Distribution applies to a discrete random variable
More informationQuestion: What is the probability that a five-card poker hand contains a flush, that is, five cards of the same suit?
ECS20 Discrete Mathematics Quarter: Spring 2007 Instructor: John Steinberger Assistant: Sophie Engle (prepared by Sophie Engle) Homework 8 Hints Due Wednesday June 6 th 2007 Section 6.1 #16 What is the
More informationHaving a coin come up heads or tails is a variable on a nominal scale. Heads is a different category from tails.
Chi-square Goodness of Fit Test The chi-square test is designed to test differences whether one frequency is different from another frequency. The chi-square test is designed for use with data on a nominal
More information5.1 Identifying the Target Parameter
University of California, Davis Department of Statistics Summer Session II Statistics 13 August 20, 2012 Date of latest update: August 20 Lecture 5: Estimation with Confidence intervals 5.1 Identifying
More informationThe Binomial Probability Distribution
The Binomial Probability Distribution MATH 130, Elements of Statistics I J. Robert Buchanan Department of Mathematics Fall 2015 Objectives After this lesson we will be able to: determine whether a probability
More informationYou flip a fair coin four times, what is the probability that you obtain three heads.
Handout 4: Binomial Distribution Reading Assignment: Chapter 5 In the previous handout, we looked at continuous random variables and calculating probabilities and percentiles for those type of variables.
More informationMath 58. Rumbos Fall 2008 1. Solutions to Review Problems for Exam 2
Math 58. Rumbos Fall 2008 1 Solutions to Review Problems for Exam 2 1. For each of the following scenarios, determine whether the binomial distribution is the appropriate distribution for the random variable
More informationThe Binomial Distribution
The Binomial Distribution James H. Steiger November 10, 00 1 Topics for this Module 1. The Binomial Process. The Binomial Random Variable. The Binomial Distribution (a) Computing the Binomial pdf (b) Computing
More informationBinomial Sampling and the Binomial Distribution
Binomial Sampling and the Binomial Distribution Characterized by two mutually exclusive events." Examples: GENERAL: {success or failure} {on or off} {head or tail} {zero or one} BIOLOGY: {dead or alive}
More informationRandom variables, probability distributions, binomial random variable
Week 4 lecture notes. WEEK 4 page 1 Random variables, probability distributions, binomial random variable Eample 1 : Consider the eperiment of flipping a fair coin three times. The number of tails that
More informationBinomial random variables
Binomial and Poisson Random Variables Solutions STAT-UB.0103 Statistics for Business Control and Regression Models Binomial random variables 1. A certain coin has a 5% of landing heads, and a 75% chance
More informationCA200 Quantitative Analysis for Business Decisions. File name: CA200_Section_04A_StatisticsIntroduction
CA200 Quantitative Analysis for Business Decisions File name: CA200_Section_04A_StatisticsIntroduction Table of Contents 4. Introduction to Statistics... 1 4.1 Overview... 3 4.2 Discrete or continuous
More informationEMPIRICAL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
INTRODUCTION TO MEDICAL STATISTICS: Mirjana Kujundžić Tiljak EMPIRICAL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION observed data DISTRIBUTION - described by mathematical models 2 1 when some empirical distribution approximates
More informationChapter 5. Discrete Probability Distributions
Chapter 5. Discrete Probability Distributions Chapter Problem: Did Mendel s result from plant hybridization experiments contradicts his theory? 1. Mendel s theory says that when there are two inheritable
More informationStatistics I for QBIC. Contents and Objectives. Chapters 1 7. Revised: August 2013
Statistics I for QBIC Text Book: Biostatistics, 10 th edition, by Daniel & Cross Contents and Objectives Chapters 1 7 Revised: August 2013 Chapter 1: Nature of Statistics (sections 1.1-1.6) Objectives
More informationProbability and Statistics Prof. Dr. Somesh Kumar Department of Mathematics Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur
Probability and Statistics Prof. Dr. Somesh Kumar Department of Mathematics Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur Module No. #01 Lecture No. #15 Special Distributions-VI Today, I am going to introduce
More informationDiscrete Mathematics and Probability Theory Fall 2009 Satish Rao, David Tse Note 10
CS 70 Discrete Mathematics and Probability Theory Fall 2009 Satish Rao, David Tse Note 10 Introduction to Discrete Probability Probability theory has its origins in gambling analyzing card games, dice,
More information4. Continuous Random Variables, the Pareto and Normal Distributions
4. Continuous Random Variables, the Pareto and Normal Distributions A continuous random variable X can take any value in a given range (e.g. height, weight, age). The distribution of a continuous random
More informationFor a partition B 1,..., B n, where B i B j = for i. A = (A B 1 ) (A B 2 ),..., (A B n ) and thus. P (A) = P (A B i ) = P (A B i )P (B i )
Probability Review 15.075 Cynthia Rudin A probability space, defined by Kolmogorov (1903-1987) consists of: A set of outcomes S, e.g., for the roll of a die, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, 1 1 2 1 6 for the roll
More informationSection 5 Part 2. Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables
Section 5 Part 2 Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables Review and Overview So far we ve covered the following probability and probability distribution topics Probability rules Probability
More informationPr(X = x) = f(x) = λe λx
Old Business - variance/std. dev. of binomial distribution - mid-term (day, policies) - class strategies (problems, etc.) - exponential distributions New Business - Central Limit Theorem, standard error
More informationImportant Probability Distributions OPRE 6301
Important Probability Distributions OPRE 6301 Important Distributions... Certain probability distributions occur with such regularity in real-life applications that they have been given their own names.
More informationThe sample space for a pair of die rolls is the set. The sample space for a random number between 0 and 1 is the interval [0, 1].
Probability Theory Probability Spaces and Events Consider a random experiment with several possible outcomes. For example, we might roll a pair of dice, flip a coin three times, or choose a random real
More informationProbabilistic Strategies: Solutions
Probability Victor Xu Probabilistic Strategies: Solutions Western PA ARML Practice April 3, 2016 1 Problems 1. You roll two 6-sided dice. What s the probability of rolling at least one 6? There is a 1
More informationProbability and Statistics Vocabulary List (Definitions for Middle School Teachers)
Probability and Statistics Vocabulary List (Definitions for Middle School Teachers) B Bar graph a diagram representing the frequency distribution for nominal or discrete data. It consists of a sequence
More informationCharacteristics of Binomial Distributions
Lesson2 Characteristics of Binomial Distributions In the last lesson, you constructed several binomial distributions, observed their shapes, and estimated their means and standard deviations. In Investigation
More information16. THE NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
6. THE NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION It is sometimes difficult to directly compute probabilities for a binomial (n, p) random variable, X. We need a different table for each value of
More informationStudy Guide for the Final Exam
Study Guide for the Final Exam When studying, remember that the computational portion of the exam will only involve new material (covered after the second midterm), that material from Exam 1 will make
More information2 Binomial, Poisson, Normal Distribution
2 Binomial, Poisson, Normal Distribution Binomial Distribution ): We are interested in the number of times an event A occurs in n independent trials. In each trial the event A has the same probability
More informationTEACHING STATISTICS IN MANAGEMENT COURSES IN INDIA. R. P. Suresh Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode India
TEACHING STATISTICS IN MANAGEMENT COURSES IN INDIA R. P. Suresh Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode India Statistics is taught as a core course in the Management programmes leading to the degree of
More informationThe Math. P (x) = 5! = 1 2 3 4 5 = 120.
The Math Suppose there are n experiments, and the probability that someone gets the right answer on any given experiment is p. So in the first example above, n = 5 and p = 0.2. Let X be the number of correct
More informationNEW YORK CITY COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY The City University of New York
NEW YORK CITY COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY The City University of New York DEPARTMENT: Mathematics COURSE: MAT 1272/ MA 272 TITLE: DESCRIPTION: TEXT: Statistics An introduction to statistical methods and statistical
More informationST 371 (IV): Discrete Random Variables
ST 371 (IV): Discrete Random Variables 1 Random Variables A random variable (rv) is a function that is defined on the sample space of the experiment and that assigns a numerical variable to each possible
More informationChapter 5: Normal Probability Distributions - Solutions
Chapter 5: Normal Probability Distributions - Solutions Note: All areas and z-scores are approximate. Your answers may vary slightly. 5.2 Normal Distributions: Finding Probabilities If you are given that
More informationMATH 140 Lab 4: Probability and the Standard Normal Distribution
MATH 140 Lab 4: Probability and the Standard Normal Distribution Problem 1. Flipping a Coin Problem In this problem, we want to simualte the process of flipping a fair coin 1000 times. Note that the outcomes
More informationDiscrete Math in Computer Science Homework 7 Solutions (Max Points: 80)
Discrete Math in Computer Science Homework 7 Solutions (Max Points: 80) CS 30, Winter 2016 by Prasad Jayanti 1. (10 points) Here is the famous Monty Hall Puzzle. Suppose you are on a game show, and you
More informationLesson Plans for (9 th Grade Main Lesson) Possibility & Probability (including Permutations and Combinations)
Lesson Plans for (9 th Grade Main Lesson) Possibility & Probability (including Permutations and Combinations) Note: At my school, there is only room for one math main lesson block in ninth grade. Therefore,
More information6 PROBABILITY GENERATING FUNCTIONS
6 PROBABILITY GENERATING FUNCTIONS Certain derivations presented in this course have been somewhat heavy on algebra. For example, determining the expectation of the Binomial distribution (page 5.1 turned
More information6.2. Discrete Probability Distributions
6.2. Discrete Probability Distributions Discrete Uniform distribution (diskreetti tasajakauma) A random variable X follows the dicrete uniform distribution on the interval [a, a+1,..., b], if it may attain
More information3.4. The Binomial Probability Distribution. Copyright Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
3.4 The Binomial Probability Distribution Copyright Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. The Binomial Probability Distribution There are many experiments that conform either exactly or approximately
More informationExploratory Data Analysis
Exploratory Data Analysis Johannes Schauer johannes.schauer@tugraz.at Institute of Statistics Graz University of Technology Steyrergasse 17/IV, 8010 Graz www.statistics.tugraz.at February 12, 2008 Introduction
More information12.5: CHI-SQUARE GOODNESS OF FIT TESTS
125: Chi-Square Goodness of Fit Tests CD12-1 125: CHI-SQUARE GOODNESS OF FIT TESTS In this section, the χ 2 distribution is used for testing the goodness of fit of a set of data to a specific probability
More informationWHERE DOES THE 10% CONDITION COME FROM?
1 WHERE DOES THE 10% CONDITION COME FROM? The text has mentioned The 10% Condition (at least) twice so far: p. 407 Bernoulli trials must be independent. If that assumption is violated, it is still okay
More informationHow To Understand And Solve A Linear Programming Problem
At the end of the lesson, you should be able to: Chapter 2: Systems of Linear Equations and Matrices: 2.1: Solutions of Linear Systems by the Echelon Method Define linear systems, unique solution, inconsistent,
More informationChicago Booth BUSINESS STATISTICS 41000 Final Exam Fall 2011
Chicago Booth BUSINESS STATISTICS 41000 Final Exam Fall 2011 Name: Section: I pledge my honor that I have not violated the Honor Code Signature: This exam has 34 pages. You have 3 hours to complete this
More informationHYPOTHESIS TESTING (ONE SAMPLE) - CHAPTER 7 1. used confidence intervals to answer questions such as...
HYPOTHESIS TESTING (ONE SAMPLE) - CHAPTER 7 1 PREVIOUSLY used confidence intervals to answer questions such as... You know that 0.25% of women have red/green color blindness. You conduct a study of men
More informationChapter 4 Lecture Notes
Chapter 4 Lecture Notes Random Variables October 27, 2015 1 Section 4.1 Random Variables A random variable is typically a real-valued function defined on the sample space of some experiment. For instance,
More informationMATH BOOK OF PROBLEMS SERIES. New from Pearson Custom Publishing!
MATH BOOK OF PROBLEMS SERIES New from Pearson Custom Publishing! The Math Book of Problems Series is a database of math problems for the following courses: Pre-algebra Algebra Pre-calculus Calculus Statistics
More informationSection 6.1 Discrete Random variables Probability Distribution
Section 6.1 Discrete Random variables Probability Distribution Definitions a) Random variable is a variable whose values are determined by chance. b) Discrete Probability distribution consists of the values
More informationSTT315 Chapter 4 Random Variables & Probability Distributions KM. Chapter 4.5, 6, 8 Probability Distributions for Continuous Random Variables
Chapter 4.5, 6, 8 Probability Distributions for Continuous Random Variables Discrete vs. continuous random variables Examples of continuous distributions o Uniform o Exponential o Normal Recall: A random
More informationb) All outcomes are equally likely with probability = 1/6. The probabilities do add up to 1, as they must.
10. a. if you roll a single die and count the number of dots on top, what is the sample space of all possible outcomes? b. assign probabilities to the outcomes of the sample space of part (a). Do the possibilities
More information6.3 Conditional Probability and Independence
222 CHAPTER 6. PROBABILITY 6.3 Conditional Probability and Independence Conditional Probability Two cubical dice each have a triangle painted on one side, a circle painted on two sides and a square painted
More informationProblem sets for BUEC 333 Part 1: Probability and Statistics
Problem sets for BUEC 333 Part 1: Probability and Statistics I will indicate the relevant exercises for each week at the end of the Wednesday lecture. Numbered exercises are back-of-chapter exercises from
More informationProbability density function : An arbitrary continuous random variable X is similarly described by its probability density function f x = f X
Week 6 notes : Continuous random variables and their probability densities WEEK 6 page 1 uniform, normal, gamma, exponential,chi-squared distributions, normal approx'n to the binomial Uniform [,1] random
More informationStatistics 104: Section 6!
Page 1 Statistics 104: Section 6! TF: Deirdre (say: Dear-dra) Bloome Email: dbloome@fas.harvard.edu Section Times Thursday 2pm-3pm in SC 109, Thursday 5pm-6pm in SC 705 Office Hours: Thursday 6pm-7pm SC
More informationBinomial random variables (Review)
Poisson / Empirical Rule Approximations / Hypergeometric Solutions STAT-UB.3 Statistics for Business Control and Regression Models Binomial random variables (Review. Suppose that you are rolling a die
More informationAMS 5 CHANCE VARIABILITY
AMS 5 CHANCE VARIABILITY The Law of Averages When tossing a fair coin the chances of tails and heads are the same: 50% and 50%. So if the coin is tossed a large number of times, the number of heads and
More informationWEEK #23: Statistics for Spread; Binomial Distribution
WEEK #23: Statistics for Spread; Binomial Distribution Goals: Study measures of central spread, such interquartile range, variance, and standard deviation. Introduce standard distributions, including the
More informationSummary of Formulas and Concepts. Descriptive Statistics (Ch. 1-4)
Summary of Formulas and Concepts Descriptive Statistics (Ch. 1-4) Definitions Population: The complete set of numerical information on a particular quantity in which an investigator is interested. We assume
More informationTwo-sample inference: Continuous data
Two-sample inference: Continuous data Patrick Breheny April 5 Patrick Breheny STA 580: Biostatistics I 1/32 Introduction Our next two lectures will deal with two-sample inference for continuous data As
More informationProbability Calculator
Chapter 95 Introduction Most statisticians have a set of probability tables that they refer to in doing their statistical wor. This procedure provides you with a set of electronic statistical tables that
More informationStat 20: Intro to Probability and Statistics
Stat 20: Intro to Probability and Statistics Lecture 16: More Box Models Tessa L. Childers-Day UC Berkeley 22 July 2014 By the end of this lecture... You will be able to: Determine what we expect the sum
More informationUnit 4 The Bernoulli and Binomial Distributions
PubHlth 540 4. Bernoulli and Binomial Page 1 of 19 Unit 4 The Bernoulli and Binomial Distributions Topic 1. Review What is a Discrete Probability Distribution... 2. Statistical Expectation.. 3. The Population
More informationThe normal approximation to the binomial
The normal approximation to the binomial The binomial probability function is not useful for calculating probabilities when the number of trials n is large, as it involves multiplying a potentially very
More informationMA 1125 Lecture 14 - Expected Values. Friday, February 28, 2014. Objectives: Introduce expected values.
MA 5 Lecture 4 - Expected Values Friday, February 2, 24. Objectives: Introduce expected values.. Means, Variances, and Standard Deviations of Probability Distributions Two classes ago, we computed the
More informationProbability Distributions
Learning Objectives Probability Distributions Section 1: How Can We Summarize Possible Outcomes and Their Probabilities? 1. Random variable 2. Probability distributions for discrete random variables 3.
More informationReview for Test 2. Chapters 4, 5 and 6
Review for Test 2 Chapters 4, 5 and 6 1. You roll a fair six-sided die. Find the probability of each event: a. Event A: rolling a 3 1/6 b. Event B: rolling a 7 0 c. Event C: rolling a number less than
More informationSampling Distributions
Sampling Distributions You have seen probability distributions of various types. The normal distribution is an example of a continuous distribution that is often used for quantitative measures such as
More informationThe Normal Approximation to Probability Histograms. Dice: Throw a single die twice. The Probability Histogram: Area = Probability. Where are we going?
The Normal Approximation to Probability Histograms Where are we going? Probability histograms The normal approximation to binomial histograms The normal approximation to probability histograms of sums
More informationTesting Research and Statistical Hypotheses
Testing Research and Statistical Hypotheses Introduction In the last lab we analyzed metric artifact attributes such as thickness or width/thickness ratio. Those were continuous variables, which as you
More informationMath 461 Fall 2006 Test 2 Solutions
Math 461 Fall 2006 Test 2 Solutions Total points: 100. Do all questions. Explain all answers. No notes, books, or electronic devices. 1. [105+5 points] Assume X Exponential(λ). Justify the following two
More informationPROBABILITY AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS
PROBABILITY AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS SEEMA JAGGI AND P.K. BATRA Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute Library Avenue, New Delhi - 0 0 seema@iasri.res.in. Introduction The concept of probability
More informationMath/Stats 342: Solutions to Homework
Math/Stats 342: Solutions to Homework Steven Miller (sjm1@williams.edu) November 17, 2011 Abstract Below are solutions / sketches of solutions to the homework problems from Math/Stats 342: Probability
More informationSTAT 360 Probability and Statistics. Fall 2012
STAT 360 Probability and Statistics Fall 2012 1) General information: Crosslisted course offered as STAT 360, MATH 360 Semester: Fall 2012, Aug 20--Dec 07 Course name: Probability and Statistics Number
More informationCurriculum Map Statistics and Probability Honors (348) Saugus High School Saugus Public Schools 2009-2010
Curriculum Map Statistics and Probability Honors (348) Saugus High School Saugus Public Schools 2009-2010 Week 1 Week 2 14.0 Students organize and describe distributions of data by using a number of different
More informationDiscrete Structures for Computer Science
Discrete Structures for Computer Science Adam J. Lee adamlee@cs.pitt.edu 6111 Sennott Square Lecture #20: Bayes Theorem November 5, 2013 How can we incorporate prior knowledge? Sometimes we want to know
More informationPractice Problems #4
Practice Problems #4 PRACTICE PROBLEMS FOR HOMEWORK 4 (1) Read section 2.5 of the text. (2) Solve the practice problems below. (3) Open Homework Assignment #4, solve the problems, and submit multiple-choice
More informationNotes on Continuous Random Variables
Notes on Continuous Random Variables Continuous random variables are random quantities that are measured on a continuous scale. They can usually take on any value over some interval, which distinguishes
More informationChapter 5 Discrete Probability Distribution. Learning objectives
Chapter 5 Discrete Probability Distribution Slide 1 Learning objectives 1. Understand random variables and probability distributions. 1.1. Distinguish discrete and continuous random variables. 2. Able
More informationIAM 530 ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS INTRODUCTION
IAM 530 ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS INTRODUCTION 1 WHAT IS STATISTICS? Statistics is a science of collecting data, organizing and describing it and drawing conclusions from it. That is, statistics
More informationChapter 4. Probability Distributions
Chapter 4 Probability Distributions Lesson 4-1/4-2 Random Variable Probability Distributions This chapter will deal the construction of probability distribution. By combining the methods of descriptive
More information4.1 4.2 Probability Distribution for Discrete Random Variables
4.1 4.2 Probability Distribution for Discrete Random Variables Key concepts: discrete random variable, probability distribution, expected value, variance, and standard deviation of a discrete random variable.
More informationPROBABILITY SECOND EDITION
PROBABILITY SECOND EDITION Table of Contents How to Use This Series........................................... v Foreword..................................................... vi Basics 1. Probability All
More informationChapter 3: DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS. Part 3: Discrete Uniform Distribution Binomial Distribution
Chapter 3: DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS Part 3: Discrete Uniform Distribution Binomial Distribution Sections 3-5, 3-6 Special discrete random variable distributions we will cover
More informationMath 55: Discrete Mathematics
Math 55: Discrete Mathematics UC Berkeley, Fall 2011 Homework # 7, due Wedneday, March 14 Happy Pi Day! (If any errors are spotted, please email them to morrison at math dot berkeley dot edu..5.10 A croissant
More informationSums of Independent Random Variables
Chapter 7 Sums of Independent Random Variables 7.1 Sums of Discrete Random Variables In this chapter we turn to the important question of determining the distribution of a sum of independent random variables
More informationLecture 5 : The Poisson Distribution
Lecture 5 : The Poisson Distribution Jonathan Marchini November 10, 2008 1 Introduction Many experimental situations occur in which we observe the counts of events within a set unit of time, area, volume,
More informationChapter 5: Discrete Probability Distributions
Chapter 5: Discrete Probability Distributions Section 5.1: Basics of Probability Distributions As a reminder, a variable or what will be called the random variable from now on, is represented by the letter
More information5/31/2013. 6.1 Normal Distributions. Normal Distributions. Chapter 6. Distribution. The Normal Distribution. Outline. Objectives.
The Normal Distribution C H 6A P T E R The Normal Distribution Outline 6 1 6 2 Applications of the Normal Distribution 6 3 The Central Limit Theorem 6 4 The Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution
More informationHomework 4 - KEY. Jeff Brenion. June 16, 2004. Note: Many problems can be solved in more than one way; we present only a single solution here.
Homework 4 - KEY Jeff Brenion June 16, 2004 Note: Many problems can be solved in more than one way; we present only a single solution here. 1 Problem 2-1 Since there can be anywhere from 0 to 4 aces, the
More information