(Illegal) Immigration:

Immigration: A World-Wide Phenomenon Cause and consequence of global economic integration UN estimates 190 to 200 million immigrants 3.3% of the world's population Global remittances estimated at $150 billion per year. 20% of U.S. births occur to foreign-born mothers. Between 1990-2004, immigrants accounted for over 50% of growth in the civilian labor force.

1 (Illegal) Immigration: Global and National Context and Prospects for Reform Presented by Judith Gans Immigration Policy Project Director

2 Topics Global and national context Illegal Immigration Economic impacts Fiscal Costs and contributions National security Policy debates and prospects for reform

3 Immigration: A World-Wide Phenomenon Cause and consequence of global economic integration UN estimates 190 to 200 million immigrants 3.3% of the world's population Global remittances estimated at $150 billion per year Source: Papademetriou, Demetrios G., The Global Struggle with Illegal Immigration: No End in Sight, Washington DC: Migration Policy Institute, September 1, 2005.

4 Foreign-Born Population 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Number (000s) Percent Number % of Total Population

5 Categories of Foreign Born (2004) Naturalized Citizens 11.3 million (32%) Legal Permanent Residents 10.4 million (29%) Refugee Arrivals 2.5 million (7%) Temporary Legal Residents 1.2 million (3%) Unauthorized Immigrants 10.3 million (29%) * Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June

6 U.S. Laws Limit Economic Migration Architecture of family reunification Economic migration laws seek to: Minimize competition with U.S. workers Provide for scarce labor

7 Demographic Realities Native-born population growing slowly and ageing 20% of U.S. births occur to foreign-born mothers Directly and indirectly, immigration accounts for 60% of U.S. population growth Between , immigrants accounted for over 50% of growth in the civilian labor force

8 Demographic Realities Example: Between 1996 and 2000 (Economic boom) U.S. economy generated 14.3 million new jobs U.S. population increased by 12.3 million people including immigration Strong pull factor

9 Political Challenge Immigration increasingly equated with Illegal Immigration

10 Causes of Illegal Immigration 1. Global economic integration 2. Inadequate provision for legal economic immigration 3. Failure to sanction employers for hiring unauthorized immigrants due to: i. No reliable means for verifying employment eligibility ii. Limited funding of interior enforcement; iii. Limited political will due to U.S. labor needs

11 Most Unauthorized Immigrants From Latin America (Share of estimated 10.3 unauthorized immigrants) Europe & Canada 0.6 million (6%) Africa & Other 0.4 million (4%) Asia 1 million (10%) Other Latin America 2.5 million (24%) Mexico 5.9 million (56%) * Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June

12 Illegal Immigration Matters - To immigrants themselves - To the United States

13 Immigration Status Matters to Employment 40% 35% 33% 35% 30% 27% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 15% 6% 17% 10% 16% 13% 10% 6% 8% 1% 3% 0% Service Occupations Construction & Extractive Production, Repair & Installation Sales & Administration Management, Business & Professional Transportation & Moving Industries Farm ing Native-born Workers Unauthorized Workers Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June

14 Immigration Status Matters to Income (Incomes, 2003 Family Size 2004) $47,700 $47,800 $27, $24,300 $20,400 $12,000 Average Family Income Average Family Size Income Per Person Native-born Families Legal Immigrant Families Unauthorized Families Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June

15 Immigration Status Matters to Educational Attainment of Children (Share of each group s year old population, 2004) 80% 70% 70% 73% 60% 50% 49% 48% 40% 30% 20% 10% 11% 21% 0% High School Dropouts High School Graduates with Some College Native-Born Legal Immigrants Unauthorized Immigrants Estimates based on 2004 Current Population Survey. Published in Passel, Jeffrey, Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics, Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC, June

16 Immigration Status Matters to Net Fiscal Impacts Illegal immigrants tend to be low-skilled Low-skilled immigrants: Earn relatively low wages Contribute relatively little in taxes Net fiscal impacts depend both on: Size and mix of immigrant population Generosity of state public services Illegal status compounds impacts

17 Immigration Status Matters to National Security Failure to control borders: Undermines sovereignty & rule of law Creates national security risks Undermines formulation of coherent policy Makes the border a dangerous place It is difficult to open the front door without closing the back door.

18 Enforcement Has Focused on the Border Spending by Type of Enforcement: ,000,000 2,842,000 2,500,000 Dollars (000s) 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 1,633, , , , , Border Control Interior Investigations Detention & Removal/Intelligence Source: Migration Policy Institute analysis of data from US Department of Justice Immigration and Naturalization Service, Budget Requests to Congress, ; and Budget of the United States Government, Appendix,

19 Enforcement Challenge Ambivalence about enforcement Focus at border while interior enforcement is minimal No reliable system for verifying immigration Ambivalence about controlling immigration control modulated through Limits to visible categories Adjustments to numbers of temporary visas Adjustments to enforcement intensity

20 Politics of Reform System understood to be broken Political stalemate: Enforcement before reform vs. Reform in order to enforce What to do with 11 million unauthorized immigrants? Earned regularization vs. Amnesty

21 Temporary Worker Program One mechanism for economic immigration Debates over existing unauthorized population Limited provision for permanent economic immigration

22 Importing Temporary Labor is Complicated Workers vs. citizens Facilitates: Limiting rights Social divisions Inherent power imbalance

23 Politics of Immigration Debates Immigrant Admission Should Be Immigrant Rights Should Be Expansive Expanded or Maintained Cosmopolitans Edward Kennedy (D-MA) Restricted Nationalist Egalitarians Diane Feinstein (D-CA) Restrictive Free-Market Expansionists Jeff Flake (R-AZ) Classic Exclusionists Tom Tancredo (R-CO) *From Tichenor, Daniel, Dividing Lines: The Politics of Immigration Control in America, Princeton University Press, Princeton University, 2002.

24 Major Themes and Conclusions Today s immigration reflects a global economy Economic and fiscal impacts are complex Current laws reflects complex political cross-currents and interests Reform will be difficult and political voice is uneven