The United Kingdom: When will the recovery arrive?

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1 NIESR The United Kingdom: When will the recovery arrive? Simon Kirby The 87 th Kieler Konjunkturgespräch March 18/

2 Assumptions underlying the forecast UK s potential rate of growth is around 2% pa Assume discretionary changes to fiscal policy as laid out in Autumn 2012 Beyond , fiscal drag and endogenous adjustments to maintain a balanced current budget Interest rates evolve broadly in-line with market expectations Successful resolution of the Euro Area debt crisis Greek PSI and ECB s OMT early steps in the process US fiscal policy is gradually tightened

3 The profile of recession and recovery Source: NIESR Notes: Calculated from centred three-month moving averages of monthly GDP, the effect of the miners strike in 1921 is excluded from the profile (the strike started on 31 st March 1921 and ended on 28 th June 1921).

4 Risk aversion has eased across financial markets Equity markets have rallied FTSE All-share index at its highest since Jan 2008 Likelihood of negative tail risks materialising reduced Positive effects from the FLS and OMT UK equity prices (FTSE All-share index) UK banks marginal funding cost (per cent) Source: Datastream, NIESR Source: Datastream, NIESR

5 But the weakness of final demand persists in the real economy Per capita consumer spending (2007Q4=100) Goods export volumes compared to prerecession level Source: NiGEM Source: ONS, NIESR. Note: 3-month moving average

6 CPI inflation rate to remain above target over the next three years CPI inflation rate fan chart (per cent per annum) 7 Forecast Source: NiGEM

7 Sterling depreciated by 6% since the end of 2012 Source: Bank of England

8 Real wages have fallen sharply over the crisis period Private sector productivity per head, real product wage and real consumption wage Source: Dale, S. (2012) Sticky inflation, Speech at Stationers Hall, London, 12 December 2012.

9 Employment levels will continue to increase Employment profiles over periods of depressed output 6 Per cent difference from peak Number of quarters after pre-recession peak 1980s 1990s Late 2000s Source: NIESR database and forecast Note: Peak is defined by GDP. A square indicates trough of recession; a diamond indicates recovery of pre recession GDP peak.

10 The UK s poor productivity performance is likely to persist Output per hour worked (2008Q1=100) Productivity performance from an historical perspective Q1 2009Q3 Canada 2011Q1 France 2012Q3 Germany Italy Japan UK USA Source: NIGEM Source: ONS, NiGEM Note: Peak is defined by GDP. A square indicates trough of recession; a diamond indicates recovery of pre recession GDP peak.

11 Interest rate expectations remain subdued Source: Bank of England

12 Public finances to gradually improve Autumn Statement broadly fiscally neutral We did not include an assumption for revenues raised from the 4G spectrum auction (raised 1.2 bn less than OBR assumed) Net flow from APF reduces government funding needs by between 6.6 and 12.3 billion per fiscal year Cyclically-adjusted current budget to move into surplus in Deficit on the financial balance under 3% of GDP in 2017

13 Summary Financial market confidence returning Filters into the real economy with a lag GDP forecast for this year and next lowered 2012: 0.0%, 2013: 0.7% growth, 2014: 1.5% growth Over half the downward revision to 2015 due to 2012 base effect GDP to recover pre-recession peak in 2015, per capita GDP to regain peak in 2018 Inflation to remain above target Employment to continue to rise over Real consumer wages to fall this year Poor productivity performance likely to persist Fell by 1.8% last year, 0.1% growth in 2013 Unemployment rate at around 8 per cent in 2013 and 2014 Primary target of the Fiscal Mandate met

14 Forecast summary table

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