Obama Closing with a 4-point Lead Democracy Corps Final Pre-Election Survey

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1 Obama Closing with a 4-point Lead Democracy Corps Final Pre-Election Survey November 5, 2012

2 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. The survey of 1080 likely 2012 voters (1080 weighted) nationwide was conducted from November 1-4, Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-2.98 percentage points at 95% confidence.

3 State of the Race 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 3

4 4 Obama expands lead to 4 points just before Election Day Thinking about the presidential election, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Hurricane Sandy National Conventions November Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Obama Romney

5 5 Republicans, Romney voters paying closer attention to the race How closely have you been following news about candidates for this year's presidential election -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very closely Democrats Republicans Obama Voters Romney Voters

6 6 But Obama has higher ceiling, stronger loyalist support just before polls open Potential: 54% Obama Not Obama Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable Potential: % 37 Romney Not Romney Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable

7 7 Obama almost back to 2008 support among Rising American Electorate base voters Thinking about the presidential election, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? level: 69% 2008 level: 70% 2008 level: 67% 2008 level: 83% Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Rising American Electorate Unmarried women Youth Minority

8 8 Gender gap 5 points wider than in 2008 Thinking about the presidential election, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? 2008: 56% Net difference: points 2008: % 2008 net difference: 13 points 41 Obama Romney Obama Romney Women Men

9 9 Suburban voters more strongly support Obama now than 2008 but seniors and white non-college keep Romney close Thinking about the presidential election, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? : 55% : % : % Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Suburban Seniors White noncollege

10 In battleground states, Obama maintains strong lead Thinking about the presidential election, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Presidential Battleground States November /11/2011 5/25/ /20/2011 5/1/2012 8/27/ /21/2012 Obama Romney *Note: The presidential battleground is composed of PA, WI, MI, NC, NV, CO, NM, VA, FL, IA, OH, and NH. 10

11 11 Cell phone respondents give much higher support to Obama than those reached on landlines Thinking about the presidential election in 2012, if the election for president were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Reached on a cell phone Reached on a landline phone Obama Romney Obama Romney

12 Behind the vote 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 12

13 13 Obama approval increases before election day; at highest point since 2009 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Total Approve Total Disapprove Barack Obama Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12

14 14 Driven by voters trusting Obama to handle natural disasters; see big improvements in federal response since Katrina I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Barack Obama or the Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue Having the better temperament to deal with a natural disaster. Now, thinking about the federal government's response to Hurricane Sandy over the past few days, compared to 2005 during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, do you now feel more confident or less confident in the federal government's ability to handle and deal with a natural disaster? Obama Romney More confident Less confident 9

15 15 Highest point on right direction since 2009 Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12

16 16 Positive ratings on the economy up 3 points, but more than half still give economy negative rating Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold The state of the economy. Warm Cool Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12

17 Democrats, Obama maintain image advantage Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. President Congress Parties Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 54.3 Mean: 48.0 Mean: 47.1 Mean: 41.4 Mean:.8 Mean:.6 Net: +14 Net: +3 Net: -3 Net: -13 Net: +5 Net: Barack Obama Mitt Romney Democrats in Congress Republican Congress Democratic Party Republican Party 17

18 While both parties improving in favorability, Obama and Democrats with much higher ratings Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and meaning not particularly warm or cold. Barack Obama Democratic Party Democrats in Congress Republican Party Republican Congress 2010 Election /12/2010 4/20/2010 7/29/ /16/2010 2/9/2011 5/25/ /18/2011 2/14/2012 7/25/2012 9/30/2012 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past two years. Data represents MEAN ratings, likely voters.

19 While Obama maintains consistent advantage, Romney s favorable ratings improve significantly since first debate Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and meaning not particularly warm or cold. Barack Obama Mitt Romney Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past two years. Data represents MEAN ratings, likely voters.

20 20 Romney maintains edge on handling of economy Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Barack Obama or the Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue The economy. The economy Romney much better Obama much better Total Romney better Total Obama better November ay-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Obama Romney

21 21 Obama maintains advantage on Medicare Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Barack Obama or the Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue Medicare Obama much better Romney much better Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney September October November

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