LNG in the European Energy Mix
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1 Natural Gas, LNG and Energy Advisory & Training LNG in the European Energy Mix European LNG Forum Oslo, Norway March 2012 European Gas Demand The Consensus View Steady gas demand growth with a blip in
2 European Gas Demand Gas-fired Power Generation driver Oil Natural gas is replacing oil and coal in power generation However gas-fired generation is generally the marginal production and the first to get shut-down in times of low demand Coal Gas Individual European country actions may be problematic Spain supporting coal generation Germany supporting excessive wind generation and coal plant replacing gas plant on fuel price; gas being seen as a marginal or supplemental fuel. European ETS is not working to force change Needs to push up carbon price to at least 30 per tonne (?) Source: BP s Energy Outlook to 2030 European Gas Demand But, is this true? Europe is not a single gas market and gas demand d is not evenly distributed across the 27 countries Western European gas demand has been declining steadily in real terms since 2004 Europe s overall natural gas demand actually fell by ~9.5% in 2011 This overall gas demand may now continue to fall over the next (possibly) 4 years due to a mixture of recessionary economics, the difference between the long-term and short-term natural gas prices and the carbon price. 2
3 European Gas Demand 2011 LNG LNG deliveries in 2011 actually increased with consequent downturn in pipeline gas take LNG largely to France, UK and Spain However, Spain has displaced ~2.5 M tonnes LNG import due to reducing recession driven demand and new Medgaz pipeline gas supplies UK has now overtaken Spain as Europe s largest LNG importer and is ranked 3 rd in the World But is it all staying in the UK? What implications for security of supply as little of this is contracted long term? 2011 may have been the peak European LNG import for the next few years? European Gas Demand New Pipelines & Future Shale Gas Supplies South Stream, TAP, Nabucco, TANAP and SEEP pipelines all vying to bring new gas to those parts of Europe that most need it. As well as existing piped imports being maintained Shale gas developments minor and only relevant for medium to long term and probably limited to Central Europe (Poland, Ukraine et al) LNG imports no longer niche but necessary and growing but in selective countries 3
4 European Gas Demand So what is real demand for LNG? The real question is (I think) could Europe do without LNG? The answer is No! LNG is definitely here to stay with Europe representing about 30% of gas imports. So, is LNG our new flexibility replacing UGS. Well, maybe for Summer/Winter but not for short-term peak demands The real LNG demand is largely based on diversity of supply, security of supply and price sensitivity and is strongly country specific So Europe s real demand for LNG is variable, difficult to put a figure on and probably not as large as we think it is. Some countries are increasing their reliance whilst others are unaffected by LNG import Global LNG Supplies The Asia Effect. And others Are we going to get the LNG for Europe? Even in the present LNG supply glut the global LNG demand is growing faster than LNG supply and most of this requirement is in Asia Considering global LNG trade, the market is tightening rapidly driven not only by Japan but other new high price oil-indexed markets Argentina has also been drawing European supplies away Nearly all the new LNG export projects in development are directed to Asian markets Few are considering Europe 4
5 Global LNG Supplies When & Why will it come to Europe Clearly LNG will arrive in Europe if on long-term contract but at current low European gas prices how much is this and will it stay? Europe s gas price is pretty low Current long-term contracts are out of the money and have growing cost and carry forward problems Cargo diversion and Cargo reloading away from Europe is becoming commonplace LNG is discounted to European pipeline gas in the current market but is more expensive than gas hub prices and in a tightening global market until the next decade there may be a struggle for supply. The UK will continue to be the default market for Qatari supplies when they can t find a better market in Asia. But, not to the extent that they make hub prices fall lower they will send it to the USA for minimal price to avoid this Global LNG Supplies US Shale Gas to LNG Exports The Atlantic basin, and Europe in particular, has limited LNG supply options in the longer term and with growing uncertainty about Nigeria the only major source will be the USA That is the Gulf of Mexico terminals (and Cove Point in the future), probably the most likely source of future LNG supplies to Europe due to low Henry Hub reference price and minimal shipping costs BUT, only if Asia or South America is not taking it at a higher sales price. 5
6 LNG in the European Energy Mix Now and the Future LNG is just another piece of Europe s gas supply jigsaw For the next few years, LNG will be important as diversity of supply but mostly marginal in terms of growth in a low gas priced European market Anything that can go to Asian will continue to go to Asia. As European gas demand returns for the future (around 2018?) there will be a strong need for LNG import for Europe with LNG demand possible rising to 42% of gas imports BUT, will the European gas price have risen enough to attract (and keep) it and there will still be strong price competition from Asia in what might be a tightening global market. A New Market for LNG in Europe LNG Fuel for Shipping Will drive a new type of LNG business starting in the Baltic and Europe to meet IMO requirements But what kind of volumes? What timescale? Cargo reloading from major European terminals onto small LNG tankers to take cargo to small ship bunkering facilities Zeebrugge, Gate, Polskie LNG terminals already planning this There are 90,000 vessels now in the world fleet using around 370 million t/year of petroleum fuels, which represents a potential market for LNG of up to 315 million t/ yr, double the amount of energy traded as LNG today Nordic countries and Europe are taking the lead position 6
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