Russian natural gas supplies to Europe Competition with the US LNG

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1 Russian natural gas supplies to Europe Competition with the US LNG Dr. Tatiana Mitrova Research Scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy (Columbia University) Head of Oil and Gas Department, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences Hague September 8, 216

2 Decline of oil and gas revenues is a huge challenge for the state budget Federal budget receipts from oil and gas, $ bln Source: Sberbank CIB 1

3 January February March April May June July August September October November December Status quo: gas production and exports are stagnating Monthly gas production in Russia in , bcm 25 2 Russian gas export dynamics by destination in 2-215, bcm Sources: Rosstat, CDU TEK CIS Europe Asia 2

4 Increasing gas bubble in the domestic market Company Production in 215, bcm Unutilized potential and capacities additions under development by 22, bcm Gazprom 46 ~155 Novatek 52 ~48 Rosneft 42 ~48 VIOCs (APG) 46 ~15 TOTAL 635,5 266 Rosneft and Novatek have extremely ambitious plans on gas production expansion, obligatory utilization of the associated petroleum gas (APG) and its priority pipeline access stimulate VIOCs gas output growth Gazprom is looking for the external markets 3

5 Oil price (Brent), $/bbl Rubles per U.S. dollar Ruble devaluation helps to overcome the negative effect of price decline Russian Russian ruble and and oil oil price: price: inverse inverse correlation correlation during during the crises crises Brent oil price Ruble to U.S. dollar exchange rate, right hand scale Source: Bloomberg. Source: KAPSARC's research, Bloomberg data 4

6 European gas market is strongly over-contracted and locked in the TOP contracts, it is very difficult to expand market share bcm European* gas balance ACQ pipeline gas ACQ LNG MCQ pipeline gas MCQ LNG Indigenous production Demand range Demand * Europe-41 without Turkey Source: ERI RAS 5

7 Russia has the largest contract portfolio, which guarantees at least 115 bcma of exports up to 223 bcm Russia bcm Norway Over TOP bcm Algeria TOP bcm Qatar Supplies in the Baseline scenario 6

8 Russia is well placed to defend its market share on the European gas market if needed Long run marginal supply costs to Europe (Russian pipeline gas and US LNG) Short run marginal costs to Europe (Russian pipeline gas and US LNG) 8 Regas 8 Regas 7 LNG transportation 7 LNG transportation 6 Liquefaction 6 Export duty Export duty Nord Stream transportation Transportation to the Russian border 15% Henry Hub Henry Hub Nord Stream transportation Transportation to the Russian border 15% Henry Hub Henry Hub West Siberia-Europe US LNG-Europe Production (incuding taxes) West Siberia-Europe US LNG-Europe Production (incuding taxes) 7

9 Pipeline uncertainty underlines evolving nature of the Russian transportation strategy and political uncertainty South Stream and Turkish Stream Nord Stream, Lines 1-4 Russia has adopted a rather opportunistic export pipeline strategy over the past months Focus now appears to be on Nord Stream 2, indicating a focus on market in NW Europe Black Sea pipeline could materialise, although destination remains unclear politics a major stumbling block EU not keen on Nord Stream 2, insistent on maintaining transit through Ukraine A compromise solution is likely some Ukraine new pipelines 8

10 Conclusions Dominant position of the Russian gas in Europe is fixed by the LTCs. The EU wants to diversify away from Russia, but there are few alternatives and the EU knows that. Limited gas volumes are available through the Southern Corridor, frozen production in Netherlands, limited capability by Norway to increase production, stagnating production in North Africa. The next fight for EU gas market share will therefore be a fight between Russian gas and LNG (first of all US LNG). If Russian gas will be threatened, Russia will no longer fight for high gas prices (as in 29), but for market share, even if this means low prices. Compared to most of its new competitors, Russia has a lower cost gas supply base and can thus engage on a price war if needed. Nevertheless Russia would prefer to avoid price war with the US and Qatar LNG in order to maintain export revenues. 9

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