On the delay in publication of papers in scientific journals

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1 This article was downloaded by: [University of Ioannina] On: 11 November 2014, At: 04:18 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: Registered office: Mortimer House, Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK Journal of Applied Statistics Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: On the delay in publication of papers in scientific journals S. Loukas a a Department of Mathematics, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, 45332, Greece Published online: 24 May To cite this article: S. Loukas (1984) On the delay in publication of papers in scientific journals, Journal of Applied Statistics, 11:2, , DOI: / To link to this article: PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content ) contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at

2 Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol 11, No 2, 1984 ON THE DELAY IN PUBLICATIM\I ff PAPERS IN SCIENTIFIC JOURNALS S Loukas Department of Mathematics, University of Ioannina Ioannina 45332, Greece Summary The technique of multiple regression is used in a study of the factors which influence the delay of publication of papers in scientific journals. The data used were obtained from journals of various subjects and countries of origin over a five year period. The main results are that physics and biology journals publish papers significantly faster than mathematics journals and that journals behave in an independent manner. 1. Introduction Scientific journals play a major role in the progress of modern science. Their importance lies in that they are responsible for informing the scientific world and the public on the latest advances in the various fields on scientific endeavour. Quite understandably, the sooner a scientific work is published the better it is for the sake of all concerned; indeed it is for this reason that the scientific journal was created in the first place. It would be ideal if the completion of a research paper could be followed by its immediate publication - but this is not the case. The facts show that there is a considerable delay between submission and the actual publication of a research paper. The main reason for this is that before the paper is accepted for publication it has to be thoroughly examined for its originality and possible errors. On the other hand research work deals with problems which present a varying degree of subject difficulty during their examination and variable time periods are therefore required in dealing with each subject's specific problems. The refereeing process and the editing and publishing

3 process, differing from one journal to another, are factors possibly affecting the delay in publication. One could also expect a journal's country of origin to have an effect on the delay of publication of a paper due to the different socio-economic and educational systems existing between the countries. Both the refereeing committee and the publishing company, main factors upon which the actual policy of a journal depends, do not appreciably change from one year to another and therefore one would expect the delay to remain more or less constant from year to year. Revised papers do not give information on the amount of the delay that is attributed to revision, so that for revised papers, only the delay in publication of the resubmitted version should be examined. With so many factors causing delay in the publication of research papers, it is only to be expected that variation should exist and, bearing in mind the significance of a fast publication, we thought that a study of the factors that influence the delay of publication of research papers might be of interest. Data were obtained from three journals taken from each of three subject matter areas with all subjects taken from each of three countries over a five year period to enable satisfactory results to be given. To avoid differences between obviously unrelated subjects as physics and history, the subjects mathematics, physics and biology were chosen. On the other hand England, USA and Germany were the only countries that could provide the required journals, although only two German journals in physics were found. Taking into account results of some preliminary t-test analysis performed on data obtained over a five year period ( ) we decided to use thirty observations per year from three years (69, 71, 73) in the main analysis (delay did not vary significantly over the years).

4 The most direct method of investigating the effects of the proposed factors and a satisfactory way to obtain some idea of their predictive capacity is to use multiple regression analysis. The data analysis is described in Section 2 below. Conclusions and delay predictions are given in Section 3. The 26 journals chosen and the data obtained and used in this study are given in Loukas (1976). Calculations were done on the computer at Sussex University, England by using the statistical package XDS3 (Multiple Regression Procedure 2). 2. Statistical analysis and results The types of delay variation that could possibly exist, consist of variation between journals and within journals and a complete study thus requires both types of analysis. The first one, called Model I analysis, considers the journal as the experimental unit and seeks factors explaining the differing behaviour of the journals and the other, called Model I1 analysis, considers the paper as the experimental unit and seeks sources of delay variation of the published papers within the journal itself. 2.1 Model I analysis In regression analysis, an independent variable may be included, either as an estimator of the dependent variable accounting for a considerable extent of the variation of the latter, or as a correction to the dependent and the other independent variables, so as to strengthen the relationship found between them. In this analysis, the general regression model consisted of the dependent variable Y, the average delay (in months) of the journal's published papers, and the independent variables Xli, denoting the factors that might have affected Y, as follows:

5 X11, X12, dummy variables accounting for the country effect; X13, X14, dummy variables accounting for the subject effect; X15,..., Xl8, dummy variables accounting for possible interaction between the above two sets; X19, the percentage of revised papers per journal; and X110, the average number of pages of the journal's published papers. Firstly, it was considered whether the delay had been constant over the years in the analysis. If this were the case then all data could be used in a single analysis regardless of year, whereupon the variable values would be averages of 9U observations instead of 30, thus yielding more precise estimates of the underlying model. Also, the conclusions derived from the analysis would be general and applicable to any year of interest. An appropriate procedure is that of testing regression coefficients (parallelism) followed by testing differences in the position (coincidence) when regression lines are found to be parallel [Seber, 1977). The calculated test statistic in testing for parallelism of the regression lines for the years 69, 71, 73 ws F = 0.51 distributed as (-1 F20,45, a value that cannot reject the hypothesis that the three regression lines were parallel. The calculated test statistic in testing for coincidence was F = F2,45 not a value. Therefore the regression lines were identical, in other words the delay was found to have been constant over the years. In the sequel, all data were incorporated in one analysis irrespective of year difference with the averages for the Y, X19 and Xllo values based on the 90 observations that were obtained per journal. Next, interaction terms were tested for significance since these usually make the model more complicated and the interpretation of the results more difficult. The calculated test statistic was F = 1.16-F4,15 so that, since this is not a significant

6 value, interaction terms were not included in the regression models considered subsequently. The average number of the published papers per journal did not account for a significant amount of the variation in the delay from journal to journal (t = t15) while the percentage of revised papers per journal did account significantly (at 2.5%) in this variation (t = t15). There was found no significant variation in average delay per journal between countries, the calculated test statistic for this being F = 0.99-F2,19. In testing for subject effects, it was found that F = F2,19, significant at 1% indicating a wide variation in delay between subjects. It was noted that the regression equations were significant only when subject terms were included in the model and the simplest (significant at 1%) estimated regression equation useful for prediction was the following (delay in months) Residual analysis showed no departures from the normality and constant variance assumptions of the regression models. 2.2 Model I1 analysis The regression model in this analysis consisted of the actual delay in months of the paper published as the dependent variable Y and the independent variables X21 accounting for the effect of the number of pages of the paper on the delay and Xgz indicating whether the paper was a revised one or not. The procedure of testing for difference of regressions (parallelism) was used in examining whether each journal was following its own policy and the calculated

7 test statistic was F = F46,2266, a significant value at 1%, indicating that journals behave in an independent manner. Hence, in order to inquire whether revision or length of papers contribute significantly to the variation of delay within a journal, separate analyses were performed on the data for each journal. It was found that in most of the journals (17 out of 26) the length of a paper did not affect significantly its publication delay, whilst for most of the journals (20 out of 26) there was a significant difference in delay between revised and non-revised papers, with the revised papers published faster than the non-revised ones. This might have been expected since revised papers, having passed through a first examination, should be published faster than the non-revised ones. 3. Conclusions The results indicate that delay in publication has been constant over the years and further, that there is no significant variation in delay between countries. This latter finding is perhaps contrary to what could be expected but the result is strongly in support of this contention and this could be attributed, amongst other things, to similar educational systems, similar cultural levels and to the wide cooperation between the countries examined. There is a wide variation in delay between subjects and it was found that there is a significant variation in delay between the journals of mathematics and those of physics as well as between the journals of mathematics and those of biology but no significant variation between the journals of physics and those of biology was found. This could be supported by the view that physics and biology are relatively similar subjects compared to mathematics. The average number of pages of the journal's papers does not contribute significantly to the variation in delay between journals, whereas the percentage of

8 revised papers per journal does contribute in the sense that the higher the number of revised papers, the less the average delay per journal. Delay for papers submitted to a mathematical journal is estimated at 11.5 months, whilst the delay for papers submitted to journals of physics and biology is estimated at 5.9 and 7.6 months respectively. Finally, it was found that there are wide variations in delay between journals and that journals vary in the proportion of published papers referred back to authors for revision. These variations are due to each journal's own policy. Acknowledqements The significant guidance offered to the author in connection with this work by Professor J F Scott and Dr J Haigh is hereby thankfully acknowledged. References LOUKAS, S. (1976). "An investigation on the factors which influence the delay in publication of papers in various scientific journals". MSc Sussex University, England. SEBER, G.A.F. (1977). Linear regression analysis. John Wiley and Sons Inc., New York.

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