Financial stability report 2014:

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1 Financial stability report 2014:

2 European stress index Ranking (1=high stress, 0=low stress) 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0, Money market Bond market Stock market Financial intermediaries Foreign exchange market Stress index Chart 1:1 Source: European Central Bank (ECB)

3 Swedish stress index Ranking (1=high stress, 0=low stress) Chart 1:2 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

4 CET 1 capital ratios in accordance with Basel III Per cent Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank March 2012 March 2013 March 2014 Chart 1:3 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

5 The four Basel III measures December 2013, per cent , , , ,0 4, LCR NSFR CET 1 Leverage ratio 0 Liquidity, left scale Capital, right scale Minimum level Basel III Major Swedish banks Chart 1:4 Sources: Bank reports, BIS and the Riksbank

6 Lending by the major Swedish banks in the Riksbank's main scenario SEK billion Sweden, corporates Sweden, households Norway Denmark Finland The Baltic countries Other countries Chart 1:5 Source: The Riksbank

7 Profits before loan losses and loan losses in the major Swedish banks Rolling four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, March Profit before loan losses Loan losses Chart 1:6 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

8 The banks assets in relation to GDP December 2013, per cent Switzerland Netherlands Sweden United Kingdom Spain France Denmark Cyprus Austria Germany Portugal Greece Luxembourg Average Ireland Italy Belgium Slovenia Finland Latvia Hungary Poland Bulgaria Czech Republic Slovakia Lithuania Romania Estonia Chart 1:7 Sources: ECB, the European Commission, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank

9 The major Swedish banks wholesale funding via Swedish parent companies and subsidiaries SEK billions SEK Foreign currency Chart 1:8 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

10 The major Swedish banks' funding March 2014, per cent 0, Interbank, net Covered bonds Senior bonds Certificates Deposits Other Chart 1:9 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

11 The major Swedish banks' lending December 2013, per cent Chart 1:10 Sources: Bank reports, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

12 Owners of Covered Bonds December 2013, per cent Swedish banks Swedish insurance companies Other financial institutions, including Swedish funds Public sector including National Swedish Pension Funds Foreign investors Chart 1:11 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

13 The major Swedish bank's liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) February 2014, per cent Chart 1:12 USD EUR SEK All currencies Sources: Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank

14 Equity in relation to total assets December 2013, per cent Raiffeisen Bank BBVA Erste Bank Intesa Sanpaolo Banco Santander HSBC Swedbank DNB UniCredit RBS Average Credit Suisse BNP Paribas SEB UBS Commerzbank Barclays Lloyds Nordea Danske Bank Handelsbanken Société Générale Deutsche Bank Crédit Agricole Chart 1:13 Source: SNL Financial

15 Equity in relation to total assets, Swedish bank Per cent Chart 1:14 Sorces: Hortlund, Do Inflation and High Taxes Increase Bank Leverage?, SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, No , November 2005 and the Riksbank

16 Household debts in various countries December 2012, percentage of disposable income Denmark The Netherlands Ireland Norway Switzerland Sweden Canada United Kingdom Portugal Spain Japan Finland USA France Belgium Austria Germany Italy Chart 1:15 Source: The OECD

17 The Swedish households' debt and real property price index Per cent, total debt as a proportion of disposable income and index, 2000 Q1 = Debt ratio Real property price index Chart 1:16 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

18 Household expectations of the variable mortgage rate one, two and five years ahead Per cent Repo-rate +1.7 percentage points Households' mortgage-rate expectations Repo-rate +2.0 percentage points Chart 1:17 Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank

19 The credit-to-gdp ratio and statistical trend according to the Basel Committee's standard method Per cent Credit-to-GDP ratio Trend Chart 1:18 Source: The Riksbank

20 The countercyclical buffer rate according to the Basel Committee's standard method Per cent 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Chart 1:19 Source: The Riksbank

21 The major Swedish banks' results in the Riksbanks' structural liquidity measure Per cent Chart 1:20 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank

22 The credit-to-gdp ratio and statistical trend according to the Basel Committee's standard method Per cent Credit-to-GDP ratio Trend Average Chart B1:1 Source: The Riksbank

23 The countercyclical buffer rate according to the Basel Committee's standard method Per cent 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Chart B1:2 Source: The Riksbank

24 The countercyclical buffer rate according to the Basel Committee's standard method with no upper limit for the buffer rate Per cent Chart B1:3 Source: The Riksbank

25 The credit-to-gdp ratio and alternative trend using Norges Bank's method Per cent Credit-to-GDP ratio Standard trend Alternative trend Chart B1:4 Source: The Riksbank

26 The countercyclical buffer rate in Sweden according to Norges Bank's method Per cent 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Countercyclical buffer rate according to Norges Bank's method Countercyclical buffer rate according to the standard method Chart B1:5 Source: The Riksbank

27 Credit funded by non-stable funding Per cent of GDP Chart B1:6 Source: The Riksbank

28 Real house prices and statistical trend Index, 1980 Q4= Real house prices Trend Chart B1:7 Source: The Riksbank

29 The major Swedish banks LCRs Per cent Chart B1:8 Sources: Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank

30 The major Swedish banks average and lowest LCR levels in Swedish kronor Per cent Chart B1:9 Sources: Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank

31 Distribution of the major Swedish banks' liquidity buffers March 2014, per cent SEK Euro USD Other Level 1 Level 2 Level 2 excluded from LCR Chart B1:10 Sources: Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank

32 The major Swedish banks' need for additional level 1 assets to reach an LCR in kronor of 60 per cent, compared to outstanding government bonds SEK billion Level 1 assets today Additional need for level 1 assets 50 Outstanding government bonds Chart B1:11 Sources: Finansinspektionen, the Swedish National Debt Office and the Riksbank

33 Chapter

34 Expected volatility on the bond and stock markets Index Chart 2:1 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

35 Expected volatility on the bond and stock markets Index Chart 2:2 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

36 Ten-year government bond yields Per cent United States Germany United Kingdom Sweden Chart 2:3 Source: Reuters EcoWin

37 Developments on the stock market Index, 1 January 2013 = 100 Chart 2:4 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

38 The difference between the yield on European corporate bonds and German government bonds Percentage points 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Corporates, AA Corporates, A Corporates, BBB Chart 2:5 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

39 Risk premia for Swedish corporate bonds Basis points Chart 2:6 Source: NASDAQ OMX

40 Issued volumes for Swedish corporates, regardless of currency and number of issuers EUR billion and number Higher credit worthiness Lower credit worthiness Chart 2:7 Sources: Dealogic and the Riksbank

41 Emerging market economies' exchange rate against US dollar Index, 1 January 2013 = 100 Chart 2:8 Source: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

42 Ten-year government bond yields Per cent Italy Spain France Portugal Ireland Germany Chart 2:9 Source: Reuters Ecowin

43 Balances in Target2 EUR billion Germany Spain Italy Portugal Ireland Greece Chart 2:10 Source: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

44 The banks' lending to non-financial companies Annual growth rate, per cent Germany Spain France Italy Chart 2:11 Source: ECB

45 Covered bond yield and the swap rate Per cent Italy France Spain Germany Sweden Swap rate Chart 2:12 Sources: Barclays Research and Bloomberg

46 Five-year CDS premiums for banks Basis points Germany Spain France Italy Netherlands Sweden Chart 2:13 Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

47 Swedish banks' funding cost via covered bonds Basis points Diagram 2:14 Source: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

48 The risk premium on the interbank market Basis points Chart 2:15 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank

49 Stibor and the interest rate for unsecured loans from tomorrow until the day after tomorrow between the banks in the Stibor panel Per cent Chart B2:1 Source: The Riksbank

50 Chapter

51 Housing prices in Sweden Index, January 2005= Tenant-owned apartment Single-family houses Chart 3:1 Sources: Valueguard and the Riksbank

52 The Swedish households' debts Annual percentage change Chart 3:2 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

53 The Swedish households' debt ratio Per cent, total debt in relation to disposable income Debt ratio Debt ratio, incl. tenant-owner associations Chart 3:3 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

54 Average debt of Swedish tenant-owner associations in different municipalities SEK per square meter of living space Stockholm Göteborg Malmö Whole country Chart 3:4 Source: Värderingsdata

55 Debt ratios for different groups, 2013 Per cent, debt in relation to disposable income All, even nonindebted Only indebted Only mortgage borrowers New mortgage borrowers Chart 3:5 Sources: Statistics Sweden, Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank

56 Household debt ratios in different income groups, only mortgage borrowers Per cent, debt in relation to disposable income Income groups (deciles) Chart 3:6 Source: The Riksbank

57 Proportion of mortgage borrowers that has increased, decreased or kept their debts unchanged between 2012 and 2013, and calculated repayment rate Percentages Repaid all debt 0 to 10 years to 30 years 30 to 50 years >50 years Unchanged debt Increased debt 23 Chart 3:7 Source: The Riksbank

58 The Swedish households' assets and debts Per cent of disposable income Total assets excluding collective insurance Financial assets Cash and bank deposits Real assets Debt Chart 3:8 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

59 The share of debt held by indebted households in different income groups, 2013 Per cent Income groups (quintiles) Chart 3:9 Source: The Riksbank

60 The share of financial assets and real assets held by indebted households in different income groups, 2007 Per cent Income groups (quintiles) Percentage of financial assets Percentage of real assets Chart 3:10 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

61 The Swedish households' interest expenditure Per cent of disposable income Debt ratio Forecast Chart: 3:11 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

62 The Swedish households' expectations of housing prices Net figures Chart 3:12 Source: SEB

63 Swedish corporate debt Annual percentage change Chart 3:13 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

64 Swedish corporate debt Total debt as a percentage of GDP Chart 3:14 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

65 Non-financial companies' debt in different countries, 2013 Percentage of GDP Sweden Sweden, excl. intra-company loans Chart 3:15 Sources: Bank for International Settlements, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

66 Default rate for Swedish companies Per cent Chart 3:16 Sources: Swedish Companies Registration Office, Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

67 Expected default frequencies for Swedish companies Median Chart 3:17 Source: Moody's KMV

68 Commercial property prices in Sweden Index, 1984= Commercial property Real house price index Commercial property for residential purposes Chart 3:18 Sources: IPD and the Riksbank

69 Number of corporate bankruptcies Twelve-month moving average, index, 2007= Sweden Denmark Finland Norway Chart 3:19 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

70 Households' debt ratio and consumption in Denmark Debt as a percentage of disposable income and DKK billion Skuldkvot (vänster skala) Konsumtion (höger skala) Chart 3:20 Source: Macrobond

71 Housing prices in Norway Index, 2003= Chart 3:21 Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents and the Riksbank

72 Late payments Per cent of outstanding loans Estonia (more than 60 days) Latvia (more than 90 days) Lithuania (more than 60 days) Chart 3:22 Sources: Eesti Pank, Financial and Capital Market Comission and Lietuvos Bankas

73 Chapter

74 The major Swedish banks' income and costs Rolling four quarters, SEK billion Chart 4:1 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

75 Costs in relation to income Rolling four quarters, per cent Chart 4:2 Sources: SNL Financial and the Riksbank

76 Loan losses in relation to lending to the public Rolling four quarters, per cent Chart 4:3 Sources: SNL Financial and the Riksbank

77 Return on equity Rolling four quarters, per cent Chart 4:4 Sources: SNL Financial and the Riksbank

78 Lending to the public of the major Swedish banks SEK billion Swedish mortgages Other lending, Sweden Non-financial companies, Sweden Lending, abroad Chart 4:5 Sources: Statistics Sweden, bank reports and the Riksbank

79 The major Swedish banks loan losses SEK billion, quarterly Sweden Denmark Norway Finland The Baltic countries Other countries Chart 4:6 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

80 The major Swedish banks impaired loans as a percentage of total lending, the Baltic countries Per cent Chart 4:7 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

81 Forecast of the major Swedish banks loan losses according to the Riksbank's main scenario SEK billion per year Sweden Denmark Norway Finland The Baltic countries Other countries Chart 4:8 Source: The Riksbank

82 Development of the major Swedish banks' core Tier 1 capital ratios, Basel II Percentage points Core tier 1 ratio, December 2008 Change in core tier 1 capital Change in average risk-weights Change in total assets Core tier 1 ratio, December 2013 Chart 4:9 Source: Bank reports and the Riksbank

83 The major Swedish bank's core Tier 1 capital ratios and core Tier 1 capital in relation to total assets Per cent Chart 4:10 Sources: SNL Financial and the Riksbank

84 Core tier 1 capital ratio Swedish and European banks' core tier 1 capital ratios and equity in relation to total assets December 2013, per cent Handelsbanken SEB Swedbank Nordea Equity / total assets Chart 4:11 Sources: SNL Financial and the Riksbank

85 The major Swedish banks' CET 1 capital ratios and requirements March 2014, per cent Chart 4:12 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

86 CET 1 capital ratios according to Basel III, initially and in the stress test Per cent Q Q Q Q Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank Chart 4:13 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

87 The major Swedish banks' CET 1 capital ratios in the stress test and changes in them over time Per cent Chart 4:14 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

88 Leverage ratios, initially and in the stress test Per cent Q Q Q Q Handels- Nordea SEB Swedbank Chart 4:15 Sources: SNL Financial and the Riksbank

89 The major Swedish banks' counterparty exposures through securities holdings SEK billion Chart 4: Other exposures The 15 largest counterparty exposures (excl. the major Swedish banks) The major Swedish banks Source: The Riksbank

90 The Riksbank's structural liquidity measure December 2013, per cent Average Swedbank Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Chart 4:17 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank

91 Average maturity of issued Swedish covered bonds Number of years Chart 4:18 Source: Association of Swedish Covered Bond issuers

92 Swedish money market funds' assets per legal domicile SEK billion Sweden Luxembourg Finland Chart B4:1 Source: Morningstar

93 Outstanding Swedish debt instruments per remaining maturity and type of issuer March 2014, SEK billion Certificates < 1 year maturity < 2 years maturity Banks, incl. covered bonds Government, regional, municipalities Non-financial corporations Chart B4:2 Source: Statistics Sweden

94 US money market funds' investments in different countries' banking sectors USD billion Sweden Euro area Other Europe Chart B4:3 Sources: ICI and the Riksbank

95 The major Swedish bank's market funding March 2014, SEK Billion Covered Bonds Other bonds Certificates SEK Other currencies incl. USD Other currencies excl. USD USD Chart B4:4 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

96 US money market funds' investments in the country's banks in relation to the size of the banking sector April 2014, per cent Belgium France Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Switzerland Spain United Kingdom Sweden Germany Austria Chart B4:5 Sources: SNL Financial, ECB, ICI and the Riksbank

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