«Ceteris Paribus» in Conservative Belief Revision

Transcription

1 Europäische Hochschulschriften / European University Studies / Publications Universitaires Européennes 731 «Ceteris Paribus» in Conservative Belief Revision On the Role of Minimal Change in Rational Theory Development Bearbeitet von Frank Zenker 1. Auflage Taschenbuch. 145 S. Paperback ISBN Format (B x L): 14,8 x 21 cm Gewicht: 210 g Weitere Fachgebiete > Philosophie, Wissenschaftstheorie, Informationswissenschaft > Wissenschaftstheorie Zu Leseprobe schnell und portofrei erhältlich bei Die Online-Fachbuchhandlung beck-shop.de ist spezialisiert auf Fachbücher, insbesondere Recht, Steuern und Wirtschaft. Im Sortiment finden Sie alle Medien (Bücher, Zeitschriften, CDs, ebooks, etc.) aller Verlage. Ergänzt wird das Programm durch Services wie Neuerscheinungsdienst oder Zusammenstellungen von Büchern zu Sonderpreisen. Der Shop führt mehr als 8 Millionen Produkte.

2 Contents Preface 12 AGM 12 Main Thesis 13 Overview Entrenchment and Scientific Change From Conjunction to Entrenchment Five postulates for Epistemic Entrenchment What particular Orderings are licensed by the EE-axioms? Immunization Falsification Indecisive Minimal Change The Axioms EE1, 4, The x (Fx Gx) View of Empirical Theories Pedigree vs. Company Entrenchment Indicators Comparative Retractability and Theoretical Importance Does Theoretical Importance correlate with Comparative Retractability? Defending the Law What is given up when? Limits of Epistemic Conservatism The Significance of the Pre-Order Epistemic Entrenchment vs. The Specialization Relation Introduction Structuralism Empirical Claim The Specialization Relation σ Example 1: CPM Example 2: CCM Formal Characterization of σ Reflexivity, Transitivity, (Anti)Symmetry The AGM Entrenchment Relation Consequences of EE1 to Proof of Connexity The Entrenchment vs. the Specialization Relation Disproof of Anti-Symmetry Comparison of Formal Properties Application 40 7

3 2.6.1 Syntactic vs. Semantic View Newtonian Particle Mechanics Newtonian Particle Mechanics, AGM-style Discussion Conclusion The Mercury Anomaly and Minimal Revision Introduction The Mercury Anomaly Plausibility-Criteria Matter-Hypotheses Vulcan Belt of Asteroids around Mercury Matter Distribution around the Sun Life-Span of Hypotheses Alternative Gravitation Laws Clairaut s Law Hall s Law Non-Classical Solutions The Weber-Zöllner Law Ritz Law Einstein s General Relativity Overview of Conservative Changes Minimal Revision and Simplicity Gähde s Rebuttal Enter Simplicity Measuring Severity of Corrections An Informal Simplicity Measure A Finer Measure Needed The Mass Hypotheses and Simplicity of Testing Continuity qua Reconstructive Apparatus Gravitation Benefits and Disadvantages Mass-Hypotheses and Commitments Le Verrier Newcomb Seeliger Newcomb and Seeliger Ordering of the Mass-Hypotheses Testability Newcomb s and Seeliger s Revision of the Inverse Square Law Research Programs and Electro-Magnetism Natural Saturation Point of a Heuristic Strategy Limits of Conservative Adjustments 65 8

4 3.9 Quine s Minimum Mutilations Making Quine Have it Right Implications for Measuring Minimal Revisions The Next Best Testable Hypothesis Conclusion Ceteris Paribus as Completeness Assumptions Introduction Prediction as Entailment Holism: Duhem plus Quine Duhem vs. Quine From Falsification to Methodological Caution Lakatos Ceteris Paribus Clause Completeness Assumptions Johansson Popper vs. Canfield & Lehrer Stegmüller Hempel Inductive Ascent Provisoes Exhaustiveness of Antecedent Conditions Hempel s Schema Hempel s Script Representing Ceteris Paribus Prediction as Entailment Lakatos Sentence by Sentence Epistemological Status of CP Representing CP Modifying CP Changing the Prediction Lakatos T P Monotony and the Arrow of Modus Tollens AGM-style Model Revision functions T vs. Fa Ga Calculating vs. Predicting Ceteris Paribus at the Law Instance-Level Following Through Merits Ceteris Paribus Everywhere Introduction 91 9

5 Cartwright and the No better off-view Joseph s ceteris absentibus Capacities Hard and Soft Sciences on Par The Threats of Vacuity and Analyticity Suppe s Isolation-Condition Empirical Truth Input-Output Correlation Law-Form Isolation Condition General Formulation Criticism Pietroski and Rey s Checks Independent Explanations Conditions for Non-Vacuity Refutability of CP-Laws Explanatory Commitments Criticism Earman and Roberts on Nomologicality A Counterexample to Pietroski and Rey Nomologicality of F and G Analysis of the Argument Rebuttal Rejecting the Question Upshot CP Laws as Unfinished Theorizing A weak and Useless Sense of Ceteris Paribus A Strong and Absurd Sense of Ceteris Paribus Either Strict Laws or Unfinished Theory CP laws as Normic System-Laws Truth Conditions, rather than Non-Vacuity Conditions Schurz s Argument The Possibility of a Genuine Counterexample Deductivism and Determinism An Alleged Dilemma What Portion of Indeterminism? Non-Monotonic Reconstruction for System Laws Criticism Equal to what? Ceteris Paribus at the Level of a Law s Instance CP at the Instance Level Individuation by Indexing The Irrelevance of CP at the Law Level 112

6 6. The Myth and Reality of Minimal Change The Reality of Minimal Change Work Heat Identity Carnot s Theory Clausius Revision of the Subsidiary Statement The Case on the AGM Revision Schema The Neutrino Hypothesis The Continuous Energy Spectrum The Ghost Particle Confirmation The Case on the AGM Revision Schema Derivation of vs. Expansion with Respect to a Trigger The Myth of Minimal Change Minimal Change at the Foundation of AGM? Criticism What Sense of Minimal? Upshot and Criticism Minimal Change as a Norm Rationality of Minimal Change What is Progress in Science? What is left of Rationality? 130 References 132 Index 141 Zusammenfassung 143 Figures 1.1 Strength of the EE axioms Immunization Strength of the EE axioms Falsification Strength of the full EE axioms Immunization Simple Theory-Net Comparison of formal ordering properties: Structuralism vs. AGM Comparison of AGM and Structuralism in the case of NPM Perihelion-Advance Planets of the solar system Inner Planets Structuralistic theory-net Ordering of Revisions in the Mercury Case Grovean Sphere Logical Strength