Cars and utility vehicles

Transcription

1 Cars and utility vehicles Summary The domestic passenger cars and utility vehicles industry volume is expected to record a CAGR of per cent over the next 5 years, primarily driven by small car sales. Launch of low-cost cars like Tata Nano and higher per capita income will drive expansion in the addressable market. With new players setting global exportoriented plants in India, exports are likely to post a CAGR of per cent until Further, operating margins of the industry are expected to decline by bps in , driven by higher raw material cost. Annual Review July 2010 Contents Part A: Low-cost cars to drive growth in passenger cars Executive summary A-1 Demand - Review and outlook A-3 Exports - Review and outlook A-13 Rising raw material cost to reduce operating margins in A-17 Part B: State of the industry Supply: Overview and outlook B-1 Automobile engineering service outsourcing - Review and outlook B-5 Regulations and policies B-11 Fuel technologies B-21 International markets B-27 Domestic player profile B-33 International player profile B-57 Part C: Industry statistics Industry statistics C-1 This document has been prepared by Rohit Garg, Sagar Chauhan, Hetal Gandhi and Manoj Mohta (Head of Research). For any queries please get in touch with our client servicing desk. (clientservicing@crisil.com. Ph )

2 Opinion Sections Executive summary A Demand - Review and outlook A-3 - Short-term parameters indicate continued positive sentiment in and A-5 - Long-term growth to be driven by increase in addressable market and stable penetration levels A-9 - Segment-wise key growth drivers for next 5 years A Exports - Review and outlook A-13 - Export plans of global players include cars as well as critical components A Rising raw material cost to reduce operating margins in A-17 Box 1.0 Demand - Review and outlook 01 Research methodology A-8 Chart 1.0 Demand - Review and outlook 01 Framework for the analysis A-4 Figures 1.0 Demand - Review and outlook 01 Salaries and number of IT employees expected to grow A-5 02 Tax savings to outweigh increase in ownership cost A-5 03 Down payment to reduce with increased LTV and penetration A-6 04 Interest rates and EMI Rs per lakh A-6 05 All major players operating at 100 per cent capacity A-7 06 Addressable market will continue to grow A Growth in income to drive growth in addressable market A Annual cost of ownership (inflation adjusted) continues to decrease A-10 Continued A-i

3 continued Figures 2.0 Exports - Review and outlook 01 Dominance of top two players in exports A Increasing share of Europe in Indian exports A Nissan Micra to drive export volumes A Share of exports in total sales A Rising raw material cost to reduce operating margins in Favourable product mix increasing net realisation A Net realisations per unit to increase by 4.7% A Impact on net realisation A Comparison of raw material/unit with operating margins A Steel price trend A Aluminium price trend A Index of per unit cost of selling, distribution and royalty A Quarterly deseasonalised sales per model - A2 segment (Rs 3-5 lakh) A Car and utility vehicle industry profitability trend A-21 Tables 1.0 Demand - Review and outlook 01 Segment-wise demand outlook A-3 02 Segment-wise expected model launches A-6 03 Small cars to drive growth of passenger cars A Exports - Review and outlook 01: Company-wise long-term exports growth A Rising raw material cost to reduce operating margins in Break-up of change in realisation and cost per unit A Trends in per vehicle raw material cost A-19 A-ii

4 State of the industry Sections 1.0 Supply: Overview and Outlook B Automobile engineering service outsourcing - Review and outlook B Regulations and policies B-11 - A) Pre-Auto policy era B-11 - B) Post-Auto policy era B-12 - C) Regulations B-13 - Foreign investment and trade regulations B-15 - Safety norms B-17 - Automotive Mission Plan (AMP) B-18 - D) Taxes and duties B Fuel technologies B-21 - Conventional fuels B-21 - Alternative fuel options B-22 - Hybrid technology B International markets B-27 - United States of America (USA) B-28 - Western Europe B-28 - Japan B-30 - China B Domestic player profiles B-33 - Ford India Limited B-35 - General Motors India Ltd B-37 - Hindustan Motors Ltd B-39 - Honda Siel Cars India Ltd B-40 - Hyundai Motors India Ltd B-42 - Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd B-44 - Maruti Suzuki India Ltd B-46 - Mercedes-Benz India Pvt Ltd B-48 - Nissan Motor India B-50 - Skoda Auto India Pvt Ltd B-51 - Tata Motors Ltd B-52 - Toyota Kirloskar Motors Ltd B-54 - Volkswagen Group India Pvt Ltd B International player profile B-57 - Daimler AG B-58 - Ford Motor Company B-62 - General Motors Company B-66 B-i

5 continued Sections Boxes 7.0 International player profile B-57 - Honda Motor Co., Ltd B-70 - Hyundai Motor Company B-74 - Renault SA B-78 - Toyota Motor Corporation B Regulations and policies 01 Homologation B-17 Charts Figures 2.0 Automobile engineering service outsourcing - Review and outlook 01 Composition of engineering services B-6 01 Auto ESO: Trends in kind of outsourcing over the last 15 years B Supply: Overview and Outlook B-1 01 Capacity utilisation of industry and top three players B Fuel technologies 01 Europe-Sales and proportion of dieselisation B India-Sales and proportion of dieselisation B LPG production and consumption B MS production and consumption B HSD production and consumption B International markets 01 Cars region-wise global sales B Cars - region-wise growth (y-o-y) B US passenger sales & its growth B market share of key players B Western Europe car sales & growth B Performance of key countries B Segment-wise break-up of cars sales B Western Europe -Share of diesel B-29 Continued B-ii

6 continued Figures 5.0 International markets 09 Domestic sales in Japan and its growth B Market share of top five players B Exports and its growth rate B Domestic sales vs exports B China s car sales & its growth B Market share of key players B International player profile 01 Global sales: Share of key players B Automobile division operating performance B Region-wise market share 2008 B Daimler s share in passenger car for key markets B Ford Motor Company B Region-wise market share 2008 B Share in key market B General Motors B Region-wise market share 2008 B General Motors s share in passenger car for key market B Honda Motor Corporation B Region-wise market share 2008 B Honda s share in total passenger car market B Hyundai Motor Company B Region-wise market share 2008 B Hyundai s share in total passenger car market B Renault SA B Region-wise market share 2008 B Renault s share in total passenger car market B Toyota Motor Corporation B Region-wise market Share 2008 B Toyota s share in total passenger car market B-83 Tables 1.0 Supply: Overview and Outlook 01 Player-wise estimated capacity B-2 02 Investment plans of OEMs in India over the next 2-3 years B Automobile engineering service outsourcing - Review and outlook 01 Types of entities B-7 continued B-iii

7 continued Tables 3.0 Regulations and policies 01 Roadmap for new vehicles B Emission norms B Engine technologies for compliance of emission norms B Cars and utility vehicles: Tariffs B Fuel technologies 01 Level of dieselisation B Comparing cost across fuel options B Domestic player profiles 01 Number of players B Fiat India Pvt Ltd B Ford India Ltd (Subsidiary of Ford Motor Company) B General Motors India Pvt Ltd B Hindustan Motors Ltd B Honda Siel Cars India Ltd (Subsidiary of Honda Motors Corporation) B Hyundai Motors India Ltd (Subsidiary of Hyundai Motors Corporation) B Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd B Maruti Suzuki Ltd (Subsidiary of Suzuki Motors Corporation) B Daimler Chrysler India Private Ltd (Subsidiary of Daimler Chrysler Group) B Nissan Motor India B Skoda Auto India Private Ltd (Subsidiary of Volkwagen Group) B Tata Motors Ltd B Toyota Kirloskar Ltd B Volkswagen Group Sales India Pvt Ltd B International player profile 01 International players: Financial summary B Financial profile B Rating information as on Dec 31, 2009 B Financial Profile B Rating information as on Dec 31, 2009 B Financial profile B Financial performance B Rating information as on Dec 31, 2009 B Hyundai Motor Company: Financial profile B Rating information as on Dec 31, 2009 B Financial performance B Financial performance B Rating information as on Mar 31, 2009 B-81 B-iv

8 Industry statistics Sections 01 Industry statistics C-1 Tables 01 Passenger cars - Segment-wise domestic sales C-1 02 Passenger cars - Segment-wise domestic market share C-2 03 Passenger cars - Model-wise domestic sales C-3 04 Passenger cars - Model-wise domestic market share C-6 05 Utility vehicles - Model-wise domestic sales C-9 06 Utility vehicles - Model-wise domestic market share C Cars - Player-wise domestic sales C Cars - Player-wise domestic market share C Utility vehicles - Player-wise domestic sales C Utility vehicles - Player-wise domestic market share C Cars and utility vehicles - Exports C Cars and utility vehicles - Player-wise share in total exports C Cars - Player-wise production C Utility vehicles - Player-wise production C Cars & utility vehicles - Segmental product mix C-17 C-i