GLOBAL RICE MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17

Transcription

1 6/23/216 GLOBAL RICE MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR 216/17 NINTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP FAO, Rome June 216 GLOBAL PRODUCTION TO RECOVER IN 216 After two successive seasons of no or negative production growth, global paddy production to recover by 1 percent in 216. Improved weather conditions to boost plantings in Asia, where these had been depressed by unseasonable dryness in 214 and 21. Million tonnes Percent Million hectares Tonnes per hectare Paddy production Annual growth rate Area Yields 2 1

2 6/23/216 EL NIÑO DISSIPATES - LA NIÑA LIKELY TO FOLLOW El Niño neutral conditions return in time for main-crop plantings in northern hemisphere Asia. The likely la Niña event could provide a further boost to rains over the region later in the year. NOAA Climate.gov NOAA Climate Prediction Center: Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status and Prediction Presentation, 13 June PRODUCTION IN THE MAJOR PLAYERS Prospects generally favourable for northern hemisphere countries, less so for the southern hemisphere F 216/21 Change million tonnes, milled eq. % World China (Mainland) India Indonesia Bangladesh Viet Nam Thailand Myanmar Philippines Brazil Japan United States Pakistan Countries ranked according to their position in average production. F=forecast 4 2

3 6/23/216 RETURN TO EL NIÑO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TOO LATE FOR SOME Where the 216 season is more advanced, main-crops were hindered by untimely rains, unseasonable temperatures or water shortages, under peaking El Niño conditions. Mekong Delta Saltwater Intrusion Map Rainfall departure from LPA (MM) 1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun Kien Giang - Viet Nam West Java - Indonesia 1 Affected area > 4g/l : Affected area > 4g/l, but fresh water fetched at low tide possible Possibly affected with 4g/l Central Committee for Natural Disasters Prevention and Control, March Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Corrientes - Argentina Rio Grande Do Sul - Brazil FAO-AMIS-USDA-IGC Balances General agreement on production upturn, but the extent of the forecast recovery also influenced by the treatment of southern hemisphere producing countries. FAO-AMIS RICE 21/16 216/17 (milled) est. 2-Jun Production Supply Utilization Trade Stocks USDA IGC 21/16 216/17 21/16 216/17 est. est. 1-May 26-May Production: For FAO-AMIS, rice production data refer to the first year of the marketing season shown (e.g. 216 production is allocated to the 216/17 marketing season). By contrast, for rice and maize, USDA and IGC aggregate production of the northern hemisphere of the first year (e.g. 216) with production of the southern hemisphere of the second year (217 production) in the corresponding 216/17 global marketing season. 6 3

4 6/23/216 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN RICE Volumes traded across the globe to remain large in 216 and 217, but unlikely to match heights seen in 214. A combination of tighter exportable availabilities and improved harvests in major importing countries to check growth. World rice trade and FAO Rice Price Index 22-24=1 Exports FAO Rice Price Index Some dominant market features: Still a thin market Strong government intervention state trading self-sufficiency agendas Large informal flows High level of segmentation Concentration of exports *217 * Jan.-May 216 average for prices 7 DEMAND IN ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA TO UNDERPIN TRADE IN 216 Rising needs due to El Niño related production shortfalls and the need to reconstitute inventories to keep imports by Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean at above average levels in F 217 F 217/216 Change million tonnes, milled eq. % World China (mainland) Nigeria EU Philippines Saudi Arabia Indonesia Côte d Ivoire Senegal Malaysia Iraq Iran, Islam. Rep of Others Countries ranked according to their position in average imports. F=forecast Far East Africa 8 Near East Asia Others 4 Latin America & C

5 6/23/216 BUT MORE RESTRICTIVE POLICIES AND MACRO-ECONOMIC FACTORS CAP TRADE GROWTH China (Mainland): Imports Nigeria: Imports 7. Imports of which informal 6. Price differential Hunan Indica and Viet Nam 2%. USD/tonne Imports of which across land borders ON THE EXPORT SIDE... Successive poor harvests to cost India its leading role amongst world rice exporters. In Thailand, supply releases from Government stockpiles to cushion production shortfalls and sustain exports F 217 F 217/216 Change million tonnes, milled eq. % World Thailand India Viet Nam Pakistan United States Myanmar Cambodia Brazil Uruguay Guyana Others Countries ranked according to their position in average exports. F=forecast Major rice exporters' shares in global trade Percent 3 India 2 Thailand 2 Viet Nam 1 Pakistan 1 United States

6 6/23/216 GLOBAL UTILIZATION TO OUTPACE PRODUCTION Sustained by greater food demand, global rice utilization to outpace production in 216/17 leading to a second successive year of global inventory declines. WORLD BALANCE est Change: / million tonnes, milled eq. % Production Trade Stocks (left axis) Production (right axis) Utilization (right axis) Utilization Food Feed Other uses Ending stocks /7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/1 216/17 11 INDIA AND THAILAND TO DRIVE STOCK DRAW-DOWN Efforts to dispose of large public reserves to cut inventories in Thailand and India, offsetting continued buildups in China (Mainland), due to successive large harvests and sizeable imports. Global closing stocks and Stocks-to-use ratio 2 Percent 4 Stocks held by the major rice exporters and stocksto-disappearance ratio Percent /7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/1 216/17 Rest of the world Major rice exporters China, Mainland World stocks-to-use-ratio 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/1 216/17 Pakistan United States Viet Nam Thailand India Stocks-to-disappearance Ratio 12 6

7 6/23/216 INTERNATIONAL RICE PRICES In the Indica segment, a two year downward tendency is reversed amid prospects of tighter availabilities. Although less pronounced, gains also concern Aromatic rice. High Quality Indica Prices US$/tonne 6 Aromatica and Japonica Prices US$/tonne 1, ,2 1, Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-16 Jun-16 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 US 2/4% Thai 1% B Pak Irri 1% Viet % India IR % Pak Basmati Thai Fragrant India Basmati US N.1/4 MG 13 UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SHORT TERM Weather La Niña and its potential influence over monsoon rains in Asia Policies In major exporters, particularly those concerning the release of public stocks in Thailand and India In major importing countries like China (Mainland), Indonesia, Nigeria and the Philippines Macro-economic factors currency exchange rates energy prices, etc. Developments in other cereal markets 14 7

8 6/23/216 Thank You 1 8