COMMERCIAL ANALYTICAL SERVICES. The Changing Small Business Landscape
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1 COMMERCIAL ANALYTICAL SERVICES The Changing Small Business Landscape August 2013
2 OVERVIEW The small business landscape is changing not only as a result of recent economic cycles but also as a result of changing operating environment costs. Small business lending coming out of the recession has lagged compared with other loan markets. Credit growth, which is correlated with economic growth, has rebounded for consumer lending, excluding home finance. Large scale commercial and industrial lending has rebounded for larger businesses, even including higher risks. The economic recovery, fouryears out, has been slower and incremental in momentum. The nature of the 2007 to 2009 recession impacted both the supply and demand of credit, creating pent-up demand. As pent-up demand opens in 2013 and remains sustainable, the small business lending market should benefit. Additionally, the dynamics of small business operating costs are changing due to regulatory impacts, tax policy changes and impending healthcare reform implementation 1, all still in flux. Many small businesses are directly affected by these regulations and laws, with some aspects still evolving, creating potentially higher costs, new operating challenges given the new costs and increased uncertainty. Financial institution regulation, which has also increased post-recession, additionally impacts small businesses as lenders have changed the way small business loan products are supplied to the markets. Last and most important, new lending models are emerging in the marketplace, relying on new information for decisions on small businesses and creating new loan products. 1 The employer healthcare mandate requirement has been deferred from 2014 to 2015 as of July THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 2
3 Considering recent macro events, the changing small business landscape can be summarized: Small business lending contraction was driven by both commercial and consumer impacts given the sizable real estate price deflation, among other factors. The housing collapse was one of the triggers for an unprecedented financial system crisis which reversed pervasive easy credit. Not only was the supply of credit impacted by the crisis but also the demand for credit. Increasing commercial lending overall, early housing recovery signals and demand momentum should funnel to small business lending. The lag in small business lending slowed late 2012, an early sign that the small business lending market may be at an inflection point. Small business lending portfolio quality has generally improved as lenders have rebalanced risk which will also support small business lending. However, post-recession, the changing regulatory environment for lenders is shaping small business loan product offerings, emphasizing cautious risk taking with defined loan terms. Some shifting of small business lending to larger financial institutions may continue due to recent regulatory changes. Increased regulatory costs may lead to additional lender consolidation which could change the dynamics of small business lending segments which don t easily fit into standardized decision formats. Smaller financial institutions such as community banks will continue to play a role in these small business lending segments, but more recent web-based lending is innovating through alternative lending decision frameworks. These emerging alternative decision frameworks are modernizing small business lending by leveraging finance, alternative data, analytics and technology. The frameworks integrate high frequency, high volume transaction data into new risk segmentation analytics in order to expedite small business loan decisions. Although a smaller part of small business lending today, these alternative frameworks remove some of the market friction present in the small business loan market. Small business operating costs are under pressure and in flux given recent regulatory and legislative changes. Additionally, small business formation has lagged in the recovery and remains below pre-recession levels. U.S. demographics, specifically Boomer demographics, will likely shape small business formation levels. THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 3
4 Recent Economic Cycles Impact Small Business The number of small businesses, according to the U.S. Census, has remained flat in recent years. The number of firms from 2007 to 2010 approximated 27.7 and 27.8 million firms respectively, based upon sole proprietorships and firms with less than 500 employees. The recent recession slowed small business formation and increased small business shuttering, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, resulting in little change in the number of small businesses. Furthermore, small business formations or births lags pre-recession levels. Prior to the recession and recovery, now in its fourth year, small business lending, which includes credit cards, lines of credit, term loans and trade credit, was more abundant. In addition to business-specific financing, small business owners could access personal capital or wealth with rising home owner s equity in a rapidly expanding housing market that grew to excess liquidity being injected into the market. Small business owners accessed rising equity via cash-out refinancing or home equity lines as an example. The nature of the recession can be described as prolonged due to the need to unwind much of the effects of debt in a market that had lost its appetite for debt-based lending in the housing market. The recession was marked by requisite growth declines, unemployment increases and more prudent credit allocation (tighter underwriting and loan portfolio management). However, the recession had several unique features which resulted in more pervasive impacts to the downturn. Home price declines were one of the primary triggers to an incipient series of events that underscored a global financial crisis in late With the housing price collapse and domino series of adverse events thereafter, pervasive debt deleveraging has occurred. Deleveraging was not only a function of increased credit losses or write-offs but also accelerated pay downs or payoffs as a form of risk management/self-preservation. The market structure changed overnight from shifting risk in the market to dealing with highly leveraged debt structures and reducing these debt structures by paying down principal. This behavior not only affected the mortgage market, but also affected small business owners. Preservation of capital and deleveraging has become the focus. The impact on the small business landscape has been little change in the total number of small businesses coincident with the recession. Lagging in the recovery, small business formation levels are lower today than pre-recession levels. The question remains whether this is a systemic change or not. Smaller business startups often find alternative ways to fund themselves, such as through personal/ family finances, cards and/or outside investor funding. Personal wealth stocks, home equity and THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 4
5 savings have recently made headway in recovering the approximately $16 trillion 2 in wealth lost during the recession, noting the stock market and home price increases in the first half of Contraction in home equity and business equity, components of personal wealth relevant to small business in particular, highlight the capital stresses on small business. Home equity peaked at $13.4 trillion (2006) decreasing to $6.3 trillion (2009), recently increasing to $9.1 trillion (2013). Business equity 3 peaked at $9.5 trillion (2007) decreasing to $6.5 trillion (2009) and presently approaches $8.2 trillion (2013). Increasing personal wealth will support small business formation but still may not achieve former levels. Startups externally funded by third party investors are likely faring better and include some of the science, technology and information business sectors. Per the U.S. Census, from 2008 through 2010, the number of small business employer firms, defined by firms with less than 500 employees, declined by more than 314,000 or 5.3 percent compared to The latest data available, 2010, suggests the small business employer firm attrition has slowed. For the number of sole proprietorships, the U.S. Census highlights a decline by approximately 357,000 or 1.6 percent from 2007 to 2008 and post-recession increases of about half of pre-recession levels (averaging approximately 380,000 from 2009 to 2011). The overall trend reflects the degree of leverage that preceded the great debt purge with fewer small business firms or shifts from small business employer firms to sole proprietorships. Shaded regions in all graphs indicate U.S. recession. ANNUAL CHANGE IN # SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYER FIRMS <500 EMPLOYEES 150, ,000 50, , , , , Source: U.S. Census 2 Source: Federal Reserve Balance Sheets of Households. 3 Non-financial non-corporate business also commonly known as sole proprietorships and limited partnerships. THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 5
6 The recent trend in the number of small businesses stems from fewer new businesses along with increases in businesses shuttering. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides a proxy for small business formation and shuttering. Establishment births (formation) decreased while establishment deaths (shuttering) increased resulting in rank order changes where establishment deaths exceeded establishment births from 2008 to The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines births and deaths by employment status. Specifically, births are defined by positive employment in the most recent quarter and the absence of employment in prior quarters; deaths, the converse, as the absence of employment in the most recent quarter and positive employment in prior quarters. The trend has reverted to pre-recession rank order but not pre-recession business formation levels. Bureau of Labor Statistics establishment births average 192,300 for 2012, 11% lower than the 2005 pre-recession 216,800 average. 4 Bureau of Labor Statistics establishment deaths for 2011 average 188,000 or 2% higher than the 2005 pre-recession 184,300 average. 5 PRIVATE ESTABLISHMENT BIRTHS & DEATHS 3-MONTHS ENDED/THOUSANDS Births Deaths Births thru Dec 2012; Deaths thru Mar 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Satistics 4 A reasonable benchmark as births increased in subsequent years: 2006 avg = 218.0K; 2007 avg = 211.0K 5 A reasonable benchmark with additional comparative references as: 2006 avg = 191.0K; 2007 avg = 201.0K THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 6
7 Small Business Lending Small business lending is lagging other sectors of the economy currently, but continued and sustained improvements in fundamentals, notably pent-up demand, should increase small business loan demand. Other factors supporting small business lending growth are portfolio quality improvements (lender driven) and household wealth including home price increases (small business driven). However, small businesses and small business lenders are presently adjusting to regulatory and legislative changes that are changing the dynamics of operation fundamentals. These changes have come to the forefront today as top concerns for small businesses, even above the slower economic recovery. As of March 2013, small business lending is lagging contrary to other sectors per Federal Reserve Call Report data 6. Small business loan balances, as represented by origination loan amounts less than $1 million, have declined 17.9% from the 2008 peak. In contrast, large business loan balances, as represented by origination loan amounts $1 million or greater, have increased by 12.4%. Small business loan balance declines, however, slowed late 2012 and may be moving to an inflection point. COMMERCIAL LOAN BALANCES LONG TERM TRENDS $2,000 $750 $1,800 $1,600 $700 $1,400 $650 $1,200 $1,000 $600 $ $550 Loans greater than $1MM Loans $1MM or less (RHS) Balances in $Billions Source: Federal Reserve June Call Reports 6 Comparisons are made with Federal Reserve Call Report data sourced from the FDIC Statistics on Depository Institutions. Call Report data available on a quarterly basis starting 2010 and June prior to Comparisons include commercial real estate. THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 7
8 COMMERCIAL LOAN BALANCES RECENT TRENDS $2,100 $2,000 $1,900 $1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1, $680 $660 $640 $620 $600 $580 $560 Loans greater than $1MM Loans $1MM or less (RHS) Balances in $Billions Source: Federal Reserve Quarterly Call Reports Excluding commercial real estate balances from Federal Reserve Call Report data, small business loan balances declined 15.2 percent from the 2008 peak. Recent data highlights small business loan trends by origination loan amount, including microloans or origination loan amounts less than $100,000. Recent trends highlight balance contraction reversed in 2012 for small business origination loan amounts greater than $100,000; and balance contraction reversed in 2013 for small business microloans, or origination loan amounts less than $100,000. Overall, small business loan balances increased 2.2 percent March 2013 year-over-year. This pivot point for small business loans is almost four-years into the recovery. Microloans, or origination loan amounts less than $100,000, from Federal Reserve Call Report data notably experienced accelerated growth pre-recession which parallels the housing market expansion. Between 2005 and 2008, microloan balances increased 30.8 percent compared to 2002 to 2005, when microloan balances increased 2.3 percent. The compound annual growth rate for the post-2005 period is 9 percent, higher than the pre-2005 multi-year growth benchmark altogether. The rapid post-2008 reversal in micro-lending would have more adverse impacts on small businesses due to their profiles: smaller firm size and newer firms. Lending in these segments is typically more fragile and less fluid. THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 8
9 SMALL BUSINESS LOAN BALANCE PERCENTAGE SHIFTS Excludes Commercial Real Estate LAST 2 QUARTERS PEAK* PEAK* YOY YOY Commercial Loans < $1 MM Peak Peak / /3 Less than $100, % (13.3%) (0.1) 2.3% $100,000 to $250, % (18.6%) % $250,000 to $1 million 11.7% (16.2%) % Commercial Loans < $1 MM 17.5% (15.2%) % * Small Business Loans by Loan Amount, Peak Comparisons vary: LT $100,000, 2008/06; $100,000+, 2007/06 Source: Federal Reserve Call Reports COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOAN BALANCES LONG TERM TRENDS $145 $140 $135 $130 $125 $120 $115 $110 $105 $ $60 $55 $50 $45 $40 $100,000 or less $100,000 to $250,000 (RHS) Excludes Commercial Real Estate, Balances in $Billions $250,000 to $1MM Source: Federal Reserve June Call Reports THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 9
10 COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOAN BALANCES RECENT TRENDS $140 $135 $130 $125 $120 $115 $ $53 $52 $51 $50 $49 $48 $47 $46 $45 $100,000 or less $100,000 to $250,000 (RHS) $250,000 to $1MM Excludes Commercial Real Estate, Balances in $Billions Source: FDIC/Quarterly Call Reports The state of small business lending is relevant because of the significant role small businesses play in the U.S. economy. Small businesses are the largest employer in aggregate in the U.S. According to the Census 7 firms with 500 or fewer employers account for 99.9% of U.S. businesses. A small business credit recovery directly adds momentum to the U.S. recovery. Simply, economic growth and credit growth are intertwined. With the recession, small business lenders tightened credit; the Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey highlights that 80% of lenders tightened credit in Lender easing returned to prerecession level ranges more or less starting in Lender easing is also synonymous with improving small business loan portfolio quality due to recessionary tighter underwriting and account management portfolio risk controls. Delinquency and write-off payment performance today generally approximate lower pre-recession levels THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 10
11 SMALL FIRM/ANNUAL SALES < $50MM TIGHTENING & DEMAND Tightening Demand Increased Tightening, Increased Demand > 0 Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Small business credit demand has lagged during the recovery, but returned in Small business credit demand momentum suggests improvements in the general economy with supporting industry sector improvements almost across the board. Generally, industry sectors are off recession lows and the majority of sectors show improvements in the last year, including construction which has lagged during the recovery. Bureau of Economic Analysis industry GDP highlights both manufacturing and service-related industries with above average growth for 2012: durable goods manufacturing, information and wholesale trade are among the top ranking growth industries. U.S. manufacturing trends reflect technological innovations, lower U.S. energy costs and narrowing global wage differentials. 8 U.S. information trends reflect technological and analytical advancements coupled with new alternate data sources. U.S. construction turned the corner in 2012 with 3 percent growth after six years of contraction. Industry performance, benchmarked to pre-recession 2005, highlights that the majority of industries are at or above 2005 levels with the exception of agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, construction and other industries. 8 Global manufacturing cost trends are discussed in Boston Consulting Group, Sirkin, Howard L., Zinser, Michael and Hohner, Douglas, Made in America, Again, August 2011 THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 11
12 GDP BY SELECT INDUSTRY GROUP: VALUE ADDED CHAINED 2005 DOLLARS AS %YOY US 2012 GDP: 2.2%, Private Sector 2012 GDP: 2.9% Industry Durable Goods/Manufacturing (16.3%) Information Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Mining Finance and Insurance/Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental Management of Companies & Enterprises/Professional & Business Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodation, Food Service Construction Nondurable Goods/Manufacturing (5.5%) (13.4%) 13.3% 3.2% 3.4% %YOY CHANGE % 5.9% 3.0% 9.1% 5.8% 4.8% (1.9%) 7.0% 0.2% 3.8% 25.2% (9.2%) 0.0% 3.7% 8.5% (2.2%) (0.6%) 3.6% 0.2% (4.8%) (0.5%) 3.6% (6.2%) 6.4% 5.4% 3.5% (12.9%) (1.2%) (0.3%) 3.2% (0.4%) 0.4% (2.1%) 3.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP by Select Industries Indexed to 2005 Industries with 2012 Indices at or above 2005 GDP BY SELECT INDUSTRY Mining Information Professional and business services Value Added Chained (2005=100) Educational services, health care, and social assistance Utilities Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 12
13 GDP BY SELECT INDUSTRY Finance, Insurance, real state, rental, and leasing Transportation and warehousing Manufacturing Retail trade Wholesale trade Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services Value Added Chained (2005=100) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP by Select Industries Indexed to 2005 Industries with 2012 Indices below 2005 GDP BY SELECT INDUSTRIES Other services, except government Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Construction Value Added Chained (2005=100) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 13
14 U.S. HOME PRICES & HOME OWNER EQUITY Home Prices $200 $150 $14 $12 $10 $8 Home Owners Equity $ $6 Home Prices, Jan 2000=100 Home Equity, $MIL, NSA Source: Case-Shiller, Federal Reserve/MEDC In addition to recovering small business lending, small businesses and their owners will also benefit from rising real estate values which returned in 2012 after six successive years of home price declines. Home price appreciation benefits are many, but improving household wealth is linked to small business capital. Small business formation is often a function of personal or family wealth and savings, home equity and card financing. Existing small businesses tap home equity to expand or invest in their businesses to varying degrees. Rising real estate values will offer another source of financing for small businesses with improving household wealth. In fact, 2012 home equity line originations, albeit prime risk, increased by more than 6% to 870,000 from the prior year, the first annual increase in five years 9. Small Business Lenders Lending roles that shifted during the recession will likely continue with larger financial institutions originating small business loans. Recent regulatory changes, notably the Dodd Frank Financial Regulatory Reform Act (2010), may accelerate banking consolidation, notably community bank consolidation, with fewer independent but larger asset size financial institutions in the U.S. Small business lending also includes alternative lenders and the newer entrants tend to be online financing platforms with alternative risk decision and payment frameworks. 9 Source: Equifax Consumer Origination Credit Trends THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 14
15 Lender composition has changed due to the recession as well as secular trends. An increase in troubled financial institutions during the recession led to many closures, primarily smaller banks. The number of financial institutions as available from the FDIC continues to decline [8,900 lenders in 2005 compared with 7,200 lenders in 2012] and Dodd Frank regulatory scope, including CFPB rulemaking, may accelerate this trend making it more cost effective for smaller financial institutions to combine. During the recession, small business lending by larger financial institutions, with assets of $50 billion or more, increased. Although the share has tapered off, it is likely that larger financial institutions will play an increased role in small business lending. The recession also resulted in some increased small business lending by credit unions. The number of credit unions increased small business lending even though this is a relatively small portion of small business lending. Credit union business lending is constrained by lending caps. Alternative lenders offer financing outside of traditional sources and several new entrants have emerged as a result of the recession along with the continued evolution of technology and internet. These alternative lenders, often online financing platforms, make decisions using types of Big Data such as purchase transactions, shipping transactions and social media data along with traditional data such as risk scores. Loans are typically short term in tenor and sometimes made against receivables or inventory. Payments may be made daily from card remittances or bank accounts. SMALL BUSINESS LENDER COMPOSITION 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% ,000 8,750 8,500 8,250 8,000 7,750 7,500 7,250 7,000 %Loans, $50+ B Asset Size #Reporting Lenders Source: FDIC THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 15
16 The Business of Small Business Ongoing as well as impending regulatory and legal costs are currently a preeminent concern for small businesses. Uncertainty of both the costs as well as the requirements adds an additional risk factor. Specifically, small business polling 10 suggests these types of business costs are of higher concern than even the economy. Tax code complexity and levels are of concern for small businesses. Complexity increases compliance costs. Complexity has multiple facets including not only the tax code itself but also the continuous tax code changes. The increased uncertainty for small businesses inhibits basic business planning. The Affordable Care Act passed in March 2010 requires small businesses with a threshold of 50 full time employees who work at least 30 weekly hours to offer health care coverage. Employer health care coverage was originally required in 2014 with this year s numbers determining the requirement status, but the employer mandate has now been delayed until 2015 [as of July 2013]. De facto, large businesses offer health care coverage, but less so for small businesses. A 2012 Kaiser/HRT Survey of employer sponsored health benefits found that 61% of small businesses, defined by workers, offered health benefits. The new dynamics of health care coverage will present new costs for some small businesses and the complex mechanics of the law increase uncertainty. For small businesses that will be required to provide coverage, the polarity of the decision will be to offer and pay for coverage or pay the offsetting penalty. In between, small businesses have operational decisions because of the added costs, from managing staff levels or hours, outsourcing or increasing prices, to name a few. Small Business Formation and Boomers U.S. Baby Boomers ( ) account for 25 percent of the U.S. population or about 76 million Boomers according to the U.S. Census (with approximately 43.4 million between 50 and 59 years of age). This demographic segment has and will continue to have a sizable influence by its sheer numbers. Boomers may shape small business formation levels based upon both financial and cultural influences. Many Boomers, as a near-retirement demographic, lost value in investments during the recession and will have to extend working years. Cultural sentiment may also influence extended Boomer working years as well. Boomers may be a growth engine for small business formation going forward and shape formation levels to their pre-recession levels or better. 10 More than one poll highlighted healthcare and tax concerns, examples: THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 16
17 Summary: The Near Future of Small Business Many small businesses that have survived the recession are in a strong position to grow with the economy and adapt to forthcoming regulatory and legislative changes. The regulatory and legislative environment will shape small business context going forward, notably due to health insurance employment thresholds. Small business formation will be shaped by the aging Boomer segment who will continue to work in retirement years with many starting small businesses. Many Boomers with professional backgrounds/careers will fluidly transition to small businesses. Small businesses will become smarter about their operating environment and cultivate the tools needed to attain this knowledge. Small businesses will understand their networks and dependencies: suppliers, lenders, investors, competitors, customers and markets. New tools will arise to offer small businesses systematic, real-time 360 views to assess and decision on these interdependencies to the benefit of their operations. Small business lending will turn the corner in 2013 as the U.S. economy continues to improve. Lending will continue to open incrementally to higher risk segments. Small business lending by both traditional and non-traditional lenders will generate a new set of credit risk tools that will decision (and approve) a wider swath of small businesses compared with today s risk tools. Small business lending tools will increase standardization and transparency which will in turn support additional small business growth opportunities, notably startups, for this vital U.S. sector. Non-traditional lenders have begun this process by offering alternative decision frameworks, decisioning with new sources of data as well as varying loan product features to manage risk. These alternative lenders serve a critical function by removing market friction, bringing automation and tying loan structure to the small business. THE CHANGING SMALL BUSINESS LANDSCAPE 17
18 CONTACT US TODAY With our decades of experience in serving the needs of companies across many different industries, Equifax has a unique understanding of the challenges you face. Talk with us we ll listen, understand your strategic objectives, then apply our experience, expertise and insight to help you uncover new opportunities and achieve your business goals. With our best-in-class propriety data the most relevant and richest available today along with our predictive analytics, we can help you see your customers in a whole new light. With 85 years of collective experience across many industries and disciplines, the Equifax Commercial Analytical Services team brings extensive professional and educational expertise to the development and implementation of statistically based business solutions. The team offers a deep knowledge of the consumer and small business marketplaces and leverages vast Equifax and industry data across a wide variety of custom and standard decision solutions and portfolio analytics. Whether you re looking for a standard scoring system, insight on market trends, or customized consultation and analysis, the Commercial Analytical Services team will collaborate with you to provide a solution that best fits your needs.
19 Please contact your Equifax account representative or call to speak to one of our commercial solutions experts Peachtree Street, NE Atlanta, GA 30309
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