What Would Yale Do If It Were Taxable?
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- Jemima Webb
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1 What Would Yale Do If It Were Taxable? Patrick Geddes Lisa Goldberg Stephen Bianchi Aperio Group, LLC Three Harbor Drive, Suite 315 Sausalito, CA Copyright 2014 Aperio Group LLC Aperio v. [Latin] to make clear, to reveal the truth
2 A Much-Admired Asset Allocation 1
3 The Yale Endowment Model Developed and popularized by maverick investor David Swensen, CIO of the Yale endowment Widely envied, widely emulated by other endowments, pensions, and individual investors Predicated on: Diversification Equity bias Alternative (illiquid) investments 2
4 The Yale Endowment Model Source: 2013 Yale Endowment ( 3
5 Swensen Speaks to Investors In Pioneering Portfolio Management: An Unconventional Approach to Institutional Investing, Swensen provides a brief history of endowment funds and explains the purpose of endowment accumulation and the goals for institutional portfolios. He distinguishes between traditional and alternative asset classes, looks at performance evaluation issues and tools, and considers the investment decisionmaking process. Source: Amazon.com 4
6 Swensen Speaks to Investors In Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment, Swensen reveals why the mutual fund industry as a whole does a disservice to the individual investor. Soft money, 12b-1 fees, overtrading, market timing, and other management practices lower performance and virtually guarantee that most mutual fund returns will fall short of their benchmark. Source: Amazon.com 5
7 Don t Try This at Home Swensen counsels individual investors to avoid the alternative asset classes for which he is so famous Trendy investors often pursue the cocktail-partychatter benefits of commitments to the promise, seldom filled, of actively managed alternatives. Sensible investors avoid the non-core asset classes. David Swensen, Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investing (New York, Simon & Schuster, 2005), 93. Cites inability of individual investors to access top managers 6
8 What Would Yale Do If It Were Taxable? Sea change: emergence of the New Institutionals, who are ultra high net worth investors with access to Yale-level managers Problem: adapt the Yale model for a taxable investor Challenges: Tax treatment varies across taxable investors Identification of reasonable proxies for asset classes Lack of reporting of after-tax returns 7
9 Swenson on Taxes In an industry guilty of many crimes against investors, ignoring the tax consequences of portfolio transactions ranks among the most grievous. David Swensen, Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investing (New York, Simon & Schuster, 2005), 93. 8
10 Another Great Thinker on Taxes Although it is clear to everyone in the industry that after-tax returns are what economically matter to taxable investors, many firms continue to take the view that we can ignore taxes entirely as long as our competitor managers do the same. In our view, this position of intentionally providing less than the best available services to separate account clients is unsustainable in the long run, and borders on a breach of fiduciary responsibility. Dan dibartolomeo, Northfield News, September 2010, p
11 Adapting the Yale Asset Allocation for a Taxable Investor 10
12 Adjusting Expected Returns for Taxes Focus on ultra high net worth investors Assume the highest tax bracket Identify the component of return that is realized Decompose into short- and long-term gains, dividends, ordinary income Apply the relevant tax haircuts Calculate after-tax returns 11
13 Adjusting Expected Returns for Taxes Pre-Tax Weights + Pre-Tax Covariance Matrix Implied Pre-Tax Returns Apply Tax Haircut to Implied Pre-Tax Returns Implied After-Tax Returns Implied After-Tax Returns + Pre-Tax Covariance Matrix After-Tax Weights 12
14 Deriving Implied Expected Returns Inputs Outputs Optimization Returns + Covariance Weights Reverse Optimization Weights + Covariance Returns Based on William F. Sharpe s Imputing Expected Security Returns from Portfolio Composition, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, June 1974 Aperio study 1. Use pre-tax weights to calculate pre-tax returns (reverse optimization) 2. Apply tax haircut to derive after-tax returns 3. With new after-tax returns, use optimizer to calculate new after-tax weights, using standard mean-variance optimization Purpose of reverse optimization: avoid controversy over return expectations 13
15 Asset-Class Weights and Implied Returns for Yale Asset Class Benchmark Yale Pre-Tax Weight Implied Pre- Tax Return Absolute Return DJ Credit Suisse Hedge Fund 17.8% 2.2% World Public Equity MSCI All Country World 15.7% 9.7% Bonds Barclays Aggregate 4.9% 1.5% Natural Resources Goldman Sachs Natural Resources 7.9% 10.7% Real Estate DJ US Real Estate 20.2% 12.3% Private Equity Russell % 11.7% Cash US Treasury Bills 0-3 Month 1.5% 1.5% Sources: Weights from annual report of the Yale Endowment as of December 31, 2013; returns calculated by Aperio Group using reverse optimization. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. The performance above is hypothetical and does not represent actual performance of the Endowment or any portfolio. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 14
16 Asset-Class Weights and Implied Returns for Yale Asset Class Benchmark Yale Pre-Tax Weight What s going on here? Implied Pre- Tax Return Absolute Return DJ Credit Suisse Hedge Fund 17.8% 2.2% World Public Equity MSCI All Country World 15.7% 9.7% Bonds Barclays Aggregate 4.9% 1.5% Natural Resources Goldman Sachs Natural Resources 7.9% 10.7% Real Estate DJ US Real Estate 20.2% 12.3% Private Equity Russell % 11.7% Cash US Treasury Bills 0-3 Month 1.5% 1.5% Sources: Weights from annual report of the Yale Endowment as of December 31, 2013; returns calculated by Aperio Group using reverse optimization. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. The performance above is hypothetical and does not represent actual performance of the Endowment or any portfolio. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 15
17 Estimation of Tax Penalty Across Asset Classes Asset Class Ord. Income % of Total Return from Realized Short Gains Realized Long Gains Unrealized Gains Dividend Return Tax Benefit Absolute Return 0% 23% 47% 30% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Active* 0% 23% 47% 30% 2.0% 0.0% Equity, Indexed* 0% 0% 0% 100% 2.0% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv.* 0% 0% 0% 100% 2.0% 1.9% Taxable Bonds 100% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% Municipal Bonds 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% Nat. Resources 0% 10% 20% 70% 0.0% 0.0% Real Estate 30% 0% 0% 70% 0.0% 0.0% Private Equity* 0% 0% 30% 70% 2.0% 0.0% Cash 100% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% *For equity strategies, % of Total Return applies to only the non-dividend portion of total return, i.e., gains. For all public and private equity strategies, dividends are assumed to be taxed at qualified dividend rates applied to a constant 2.0% dividend yield. The above estimates are hypothetical and are not based on specific individual investments. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 16
18 Estimation of Tax Penalty Across Asset Classes Asset Class Ord. Income % of Total Return from Realized Short Gains Realized Long Gains Unrealized Gains Dividend Return Tax Benefit Absolute Return 0% 23% 47% 30% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Active* 0% 23% 47% 30% 2.0% 0.0% Equity, Indexed* 0% 0% 0% 100% 2.0% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv.* 0% 0% 0% 100% 2.0% 1.9% Taxable Bonds 100% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% Municipal Bonds 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% Nat. Resources 0% 10% 20% 70% 0.0% 0.0% Real Estate 30% 0% 0% 70% 0.0% 0.0% Private Equity* 0% 0% 30% 70% 2.0% 0.0% Cash 100% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% *For equity strategies, % of Total Return applies to only the non-dividend portion of total return, i.e., gains. For all public and private equity strategies, dividends are assumed to be taxed at qualified dividend rates applied to a constant 2.0% dividend yield. The above estimates are hypothetical and are not based on specific individual investments. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 17
19 After-Tax Weights for Yale (low correlation hedge fund index) Returns Weights Yale P/T Yale A/T Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Implied Implied Yale Tax Yale P/T Active Indexed Tax-Adv. Asset Class Return Return Haircut Weight Equity Equity Equity Absolute Return 2.2% 1.7% -0.5% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% Equity, Active 9.7% 7.5% -2.2% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Indexed 9.7% 9.2% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 45.6% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 9.7% 11.1% +1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.4% Bonds* 1.5% 0.9% -0.7% 4.9% 35.0% 25.8% 14.5% Nat. Resources 10.7% 9.7% -1.0% 7.9% 12.2% 0.0% 5.2% Real Estate 12.3% 10.7% -1.6% 20.2% 13.9% 9.0% 2.8% Private Equity 11.7% 10.4% -1.3% 32.0% 38.9% 19.6% 39.1% Cash 1.5% 0.8% -0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 18
20 After-Tax Weights for Yale (low correlation HF index) Assets with the worst tax haircut drop to nothing Returns Weights Yale P/T Yale A/T Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Implied Implied Yale Tax Yale P/T Active Indexed Tax-Adv. Asset Class Return Return Haircut Weight Equity Equity Equity Absolute Return 2.2% 1.7% -0.5% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% Equity, Active 9.7% 7.5% -2.2% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Indexed 9.7% 9.2% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 45.6% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 9.7% 11.1% +1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.4% Bonds* 1.5% 0.9% -0.7% 4.9% 35.0% 25.8% 14.5% Nat. Resources 10.7% 9.7% -1.0% 7.9% 12.2% 0.0% 5.2% Real Estate 12.3% 10.7% -1.6% 20.2% 13.9% 9.0% 2.8% Private Equity 11.7% 10.4% -1.3% 32.0% 38.9% 19.6% 39.1% Cash 1.5% 0.8% -0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 19
21 After-Tax Weights for Yale (low correlation HF index) Looks like a 1960s pension allocation Returns Weights Yale P/T Yale A/T Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Implied Implied Yale Tax Yale P/T Active Indexed Tax-Adv. Asset Class Return Return Haircut Weight Equity Equity Equity Absolute Return 2.2% 1.7% -0.5% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% Equity, Active 9.7% 7.5% -2.2% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Indexed 9.7% 9.2% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 45.6% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 9.7% 11.1% +1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.4% Bonds* 1.5% 0.9% -0.7% 4.9% 35.0% 25.8% 14.5% Nat. Resources 10.7% 9.7% -1.0% 7.9% 12.2% 0.0% 5.2% Real Estate 12.3% 10.7% -1.6% 20.2% 13.9% 9.0% 2.8% Private Equity 11.7% 10.4% -1.3% 32.0% 38.9% 19.6% 39.1% Cash 1.5% 0.8% -0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 20
22 After-Tax Weights for Yale (low correlation HF index) Tax losses allow for more alternatives Returns Weights Yale P/T Yale A/T Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Implied Implied Yale Tax Yale P/T Active Indexed Tax-Adv. Asset Class Return Return Haircut Weight Equity Equity Equity Absolute Return 2.2% 1.7% -0.5% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% Equity, Active 9.7% 7.5% -2.2% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Indexed 9.7% 9.2% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 45.6% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 9.7% 11.1% +1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.4% Bonds* 1.5% 0.9% -0.7% 4.9% 35.0% 25.8% 14.5% Nat. Resources 10.7% 9.7% -1.0% 7.9% 12.2% 0.0% 5.2% Real Estate 12.3% 10.7% -1.6% 20.2% 13.9% 9.0% 2.8% Private Equity 11.7% 10.4% -1.3% 32.0% 38.9% 19.6% 39.1% Cash 1.5% 0.8% -0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% The alts can really prove their value as sources of diversification once the tax problem is solved. *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 21
23 After-Tax Weights for Yale (low correlation HF index) Bonds drop since alts now can reduce risk Returns Weights Yale P/T Yale A/T Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Implied Implied Yale Tax Yale P/T Active Indexed Tax-Adv. Asset Class Return Return Haircut Weight Equity Equity Equity Absolute Return 2.2% 1.7% -0.5% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% Equity, Active 9.7% 7.5% -2.2% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Indexed 9.7% 9.2% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 45.6% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 9.7% 11.1% +1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.4% Bonds* 1.5% 0.9% -0.7% 4.9% 35.0% 25.8% 14.5% Nat. Resources 10.7% 9.7% -1.0% 7.9% 12.2% 0.0% 5.2% Real Estate 12.3% 10.7% -1.6% 20.2% 13.9% 9.0% 2.8% Private Equity 11.7% 10.4% -1.3% 32.0% 38.9% 19.6% 39.1% Cash 1.5% 0.8% -0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 22
24 Correlations Matter 23
25 The Only Free Lunch of Investing Diversification is one of the main attractions of hedge funds and other alternatives The presumption is that alternatives are uncorrelated with core asset classes Is that true? 24
26 Equity/Hedge Fund Correlations Index Benchmark for Absolute Return (hedge funds) Correlation with Equities (MSCI ACWI) DJ Credit Suisse Hedge Fund (low correlation) 0.14 HFRI Fund Weighted Composite (high correlation)
27 Equity/Hedge Fund Correlations Index Benchmark for Absolute Return (hedge funds) Correlation with Equities (MSCI ACWI) DJ Credit Suisse Hedge Fund (low correlation) 0.14 HFRI Fund Weighted Composite (high correlation) 0.88 Alternatives can be correlated with core asset classes 26
28 After-Tax Weights for Yale (high correlation HF index) Returns Weights Yale P/T Yale A/T Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Implied Implied Yale Tax Yale P/T Active Indexed Tax-Adv. Asset Class Return Return Haircut Weight Equity Equity Equity Absolute Return 4.2% 3.3% -0.9% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Active 9.2% 7.1% -2.1% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Indexed 9.2% 8.7% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 45.6% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 9.2% 10.6% +1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% Bonds* 1.5% 0.9% -0.7% 4.9% 35.0% 25.8% 25.6% Nat. Resources 10.2% 9.2% -1.0% 7.9% 12.2% 0.0% 5.8% Real Estate 11.4% 9.9% -1.5% 20.2% 13.9% 9.0% 2.3% Private Equity 11.0% 9.8% -1.2% 32.0% 38.9% 19.6% 41.3% Cash 1.5% 0.8% -0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 27
29 After-Tax Weights for Yale (high correlation HF index) Returns Weights Correlated hedge funds don t add value after tax Yale P/T Yale A/T Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Implied Implied Yale Tax Yale P/T Active Indexed Tax-Adv. Asset Class Return Return Haircut Weight Equity Equity Equity Absolute Return 4.2% 3.3% -0.9% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Active 9.2% 7.1% -2.1% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Indexed 9.2% 8.7% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 45.6% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 9.2% 10.6% +1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% Bonds* 1.5% 0.9% -0.7% 4.9% 35.0% 25.8% 25.6% Nat. Resources 10.2% 9.2% -1.0% 7.9% 12.2% 0.0% 5.8% Real Estate 11.4% 9.9% -1.5% 20.2% 13.9% 9.0% 2.3% Private Equity 11.0% 9.8% -1.2% 32.0% 38.9% 19.6% 41.3% Cash 1.5% 0.8% -0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 28
30 After-Tax Weights for Yale (low correlation HF index) This is what we had before Returns Weights Yale P/T Yale A/T Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Yale A/T: Implied Implied Yale Tax Yale P/T Active Indexed Tax-Adv. Asset Class Return Return Haircut Weight Equity Equity Equity Absolute Return 2.2% 1.7% -0.5% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% Equity, Active 9.7% 7.5% -2.2% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Indexed 9.7% 9.2% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 45.6% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 9.7% 11.1% +1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.4% Bonds* 1.5% 0.9% -0.7% 4.9% 35.0% 25.8% 14.5% Nat. Resources 10.7% 9.7% -1.0% 7.9% 12.2% 0.0% 5.2% Real Estate 12.3% 10.7% -1.6% 20.2% 13.9% 9.0% 2.8% Private Equity 11.7% 10.4% -1.3% 32.0% 38.9% 19.6% 39.1% Cash 1.5% 0.8% -0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 29
31 Volatilities Matter Too: Adjusting a Covariance Matrix for Taxes 30
32 Risk and Expected Return Taxes generate a return penalty But taxes also lead to a smoother (less volatile) return series In the previous examples, we penalized tax-inefficient asset classes with lower return but we did not reward them with lower risk In the examples that follow, we tax-adjust the covariance matrix 31
33 Adjusting a Covariance Matrix for Taxes Pre-Tax Weights + Pre-Tax Covariance Matrix Implied Pre-Tax Returns Apply Tax Haircut to Implied Pre-Tax Returns Implied After-Tax Returns Implied After-Tax Returns + After-Tax Covariance Matrix After-Tax Weights 32
34 Adjusting a Covariance Matrix for Taxes Assume that pre-tax returns of tax-inefficient asset classes and tax haircuts are normally distributed with positive correlation ρ Higher correlation means smoother after-tax returns Sample from the distribution of tax haircuts (conditional on pre-tax returns) Simulate the after-tax return series Estimate the after-tax covariance matrix based on the simulated after-tax return series 33
35 After-Tax Volatilities (low correlation HF index) Change in Annualized Volatilities using A/T Covariance Matrix Asset Class With P/T Covariance Matrix ρ = 0.25 ρ = 0.50 ρ = 0.75 ρ = 1.00 Absolute Return 6.0% -0.3% -0.7% -1.0% -1.3% Equity, Active 17.2% -1.0% -1.9% -2.8% -3.8% Equity, Indexed 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bonds* 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Nat. Resources 23.5% -0.6% -1.1% -1.7% -2.2% Real Estate 23.9% -0.8% -1.6% -2.4% -3.2% Private Equity 20.6% -0.4% -0.8% -1.2% -1.5% Cash 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 34
36 After-Tax Volatilities (low correlation HF index) Greater risk reduction in active equity and real estate Change in Annualized Volatilities using A/T Covariance Matrix Asset Class With P/T Covariance Matrix ρ = 0.25 ρ = 0.50 ρ = 0.75 ρ = 1.00 Absolute Return 6.0% -0.3% -0.7% -1.0% -1.3% Equity, Active 17.2% -1.0% -1.9% -2.8% -3.8% Equity, Indexed 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bonds* 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Nat. Resources 23.5% -0.6% -1.1% -1.7% -2.2% Real Estate 23.9% -0.8% -1.6% -2.4% -3.2% Private Equity 20.6% -0.4% -0.8% -1.2% -1.5% Cash 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 35
37 After-Tax Weights for Yale (low volatility) Weight shifts to active equity and real estate Change in Weights using A/T Covariance Matrix: Tax-Advantaged Equity Asset Class With P/T Covariance Matrix ρ = 0.25 ρ = 0.50 ρ = 0.75 ρ = 1.00 Absolute Return 11.9% -0.2% -0.6% -3.2% -6.2% Equity, Active 0.0% 0.0% +3.6% +11.3% +20.9% Equity, Indexed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 26.4% -0.2% 1.0% +3.9% +7.6% Bonds* 14.5% -2.5% -5.4% -8.4% -12.2% Nat. Resources 5.2% +0.9% +0.5% -1.3% -3.6% Real Estate 2.8% +3.0% +6.1% +9.7% +13.8% Private Equity 39.1% -1.3% -5.3% -12.2% -20.4% Cash 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 36
38 After-Tax Weights for Yale (low volatility) Tax-advantaged equity is more important than ever Change in Weights using A/T Covariance Matrix: Tax-Advantaged Equity Asset Class With P/T Covariance Matrix ρ = 0.25 ρ = 0.50 ρ = 0.75 ρ = 1.00 Absolute Return 11.9% -0.2% -0.6% -3.2% -6.2% Equity, Active 0.0% 0.0% +3.6% +11.3% +20.9% Equity, Indexed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 26.4% -0.2% 1.0% +3.9% +7.6% Bonds* 14.5% -2.5% -5.4% -8.4% -12.2% Nat. Resources 5.2% +0.9% +0.5% -1.3% -3.6% Real Estate 2.8% +3.0% +6.1% +9.7% +13.8% Private Equity 39.1% -1.3% -5.3% -12.2% -20.4% Cash 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 37
39 Conclusions 38
40 Conclusions Since 2005, when David Swensen counseled individual investors to avoid alternatives, a class of ultra high net worth New Institutional investors has emerged Perhaps the New Institutional investors have access to top managers but unlike the Yale endowment, their gains are still taxable The impact of taxes on asset allocation is dramatic 39
41 Conclusions It may be possible to design an after-tax asset allocation that incorporates the diversification benefits and liquidity premiums of the Yale endowment. However: After-tax investing principles must be incorporated Diversification is essential and cannot be assumed Tax-efficient equity can facilitate the inclusion of diversifying tax-inefficient alternatives regardless of whether after-tax returns are smoother than pre-tax returns 40
42 Thank You 41
43 Appendix 42
44 Asset-Class Correlations Proxy # Asset Class Index Benchmark 1 Low Corr. Absolute Return DJ Credit Suisse Hedge Fund USD 2 High Corr. Absolute Return HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index 3 World Equity - Active MSCI ACWI NR USD 4 World Equity - Tax Neutral MSCI ACWI NR USD 5 World Equity Tax-Advantaged MSCI ACWI NR USD 6 Fixed Income Barclays Aggregate Bond TR 7 Municipal Bonds Barclays Municipal 8 Natural Resources Goldman Sachs Natural Resources 9 Private Equity Russell 2000 TR 10 Real Estate DJ US Real Estate TR USD 11 Cash ML US Treasury Bills 0-3 Mon TR USD Source: Return data from Morningstar Principia for all indices except for proxy #2, from HFRI. For more information on HFRI indices, see Correlations were calculated from monthly pre-tax total return data through
45 Impact of Tax-Adjusted Covariance Matrix on Asset Allocation 44
46 After-Tax Covariance Matrix for Yale (low correlation HF index) Change in Weights using A/T Covariance Matrix: Active Equity Asset Class With P/T Covariance Matrix ρ = 0.25 ρ = 0.50 ρ = 0.75 ρ = 1.00 Absolute Return 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Active 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% +3.2% Equity, Indexed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bonds* 35.0% -3.1% -6.6% -10.4% -15.6% Nat. Resources 12.2% +1.0% +2.2% +3.4% +4.0% Real Estate 13.9% +2.8% +6.1% +9.9% +14.0% Private Equity 38.9% -1.0% -1.7% -3.0% -5.6% Cash 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 45
47 After-Tax Covariance Matrix for Yale (low correlation HF index) Change in Weights using A/T Covariance Matrix: Indexed Equity Asset Class With P/T Covariance Matrix ρ = 0.25 ρ = 0.50 ρ = 0.75 ρ = 1.00 Absolute Return 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Active 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity, Indexed 45.6% -8.8% -19.5% -30.6% -42.4% Equity, Tax-Adv. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bonds* 25.8% -0.6% -1.6% -3.3% -5.7% Nat. Resources 0.0% +2.6% +6.6% +11.0% +15.9% Real Estate 9.0% +3.6% +7.9% +12.9% +18.7% Private Equity 19.6% +3.2% +6.6% +10.0% +13.5% Cash 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 46
48 Advisor Allocation 47
49 After-Tax Weights for Advisor (low correlation HF index) Returns Weights Sample Sample Sample Sample Sample Advisor Advisor Sample Sample Advisor Advisor Advisor P/T A/T Advisor Advisor A/T: A/T: A/T: Implied Implied Tax P/T Active Indexed Tax-Adv. Asset Class Return Return Haircut Weight Equity Equity Equity Absolute Return 2.5% 1.9% -0.5% 25.0% 13.8% 11.3% 24.5% Equity, Active 10.9% 8.4% -2.5% 30.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% Equity, Indexed 10.9% 10.4% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 51.0% 0.0% Equity, Tax-Adv. 10.9% 12.3% +1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.6% Bonds* 1.7% 0.9% -0.7% 20.0% 42.3% 34.1% 23.2% Nat. Resources 12.0% 10.8% -1.1% 5.0% 13.1% 0.0% 5.7% Real Estate 12.9% 11.2% -1.7% 10.0% 8.0% 2.5% 0.0% Private Equity 12.1% 10.8% -1.3% 10.0% 22.9% 1.1% 17.5% Cash 1.5% 0.8% -0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Bonds are assumed to be taxable for the pre-tax allocation and tax-exempt municipals for the after-tax portfolios. All distributions from taxexempt bonds are assumed to be tax-exempt, i.e., possible capital gains are ignored. Note: P/T = Pre-Tax, A/T = After-Tax. The above weights and returns are hypothetical and are not based on actual investments. Cash has been constrained in optimization to show a weight of zero. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this presentation. 48
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